Circle Internet Group (CRCL) Stock: JPMorgan Stake, Black Friday Rally and Lock‑Up Countdown Before the December 1, 2025 Open

New York — As U.S. markets gear up to reopen on Monday, December 1, 2025, Circle Internet Group, Inc. (NYSE: CRCL) heads into the new week at the center of several powerful storylines: a sharp Black Friday rebound, a newly disclosed $65 million position from JPMorgan, heavy discussion of a December 2 IPO lock‑up expiration, and growing attention on its role in a fast‑expanding stablecoin market. TS2 Tech+2MarketBeat+2

Circle stock snapshot before the December 1 open

As of the close on Friday, November 28, Circle Internet Group shares finished at $79.93, up 10.04% on the day, with after‑hours trading nudging the price to about $80.98. TS2 Tech+1

Key trading metrics from the Black Friday session:

Day range: $74.02 – $81.48
Previous close: $72.64
52‑week range: $64.00 – $298.99
Volume: ~22.3 million shares (vs. ~13.5 million three‑month average)
Market cap: roughly $19–20 billion, depending on share‑count assumptions TS2 Tech+1

Despite Friday’s jump, CRCL is still about 70% below its late‑June peak near $299, and only a bit more than 10% above its recent lows, leaving the stock squarely in “high‑beta fintech/crypto proxy” territory rather than a sleepy financial. TS2 Tech+1

At the time of writing late on Sunday, November 30, the latest widely reported quote remains Friday’s after‑hours price; live pre‑market indications for Monday won’t firm up until early U.S. trading hours, so investors should check real‑time feeds from their brokers or data providers. ^[1]

November 28: Half‑billion USDC mint, Tether downgrade and Black Friday bounce

Friday’s double‑digit gain in CRCL did not come out of nowhere – it landed at the intersection of on‑chain stablecoin activity, a competitor downgrade, and broader risk‑on mood in U.S. markets.

500 million USDC minted on Solana

According to Stocktwits, Circle carried out two large transactions on November 28, minting $500 million of USD Coin (USDC) on the Solana blockchain in two $250 million tranches, as tracked by Arkham Intelligence. ^[2]

This mint followed weeks of net new issuance from both Circle and its chief rival Tether, with on‑chain analytics firms estimating that the pair have created roughly $17.75 billion in new stablecoins since the October 11 “flash crash.” ^[3]

S&P downgrades Tether – and sentiment swings toward USDC

The mint coincided with—and likely benefited from—headline risk for Tether. S&P Global downgraded Tether’s USDT stablecoin to its lowest “weak” rating on the agency’s stablecoin stability scale, citing a shift toward riskier reserves, including bitcoin, gold, secured loans and corporate bonds, and concerns about transparency around some custodians and counterparties. TS2 Tech

The downgrade rekindled long‑standing questions over USDT’s backing at the same time that USDC’s conservative, fully reserved profile lines up neatly with new regulatory frameworks in the U.S. and Europe. Commentary from outlets such as Barron’s and TS2 noted that CRCL shares rallied alongside this news as traders bet that trust and market share could gradually tilt toward USDC. TS2 Tech+1

Black Friday move: fundamentals meet flows

Several outlets documented the mechanics of Friday’s move:

Stocktwits reported CRCL up about 11% intraday, with the stock trading back above its IPO price after dipping below it earlier in the week. ^[4]
Investing.com data show the 10.04% daily gain, elevated volume and the after‑hours push above $80. ^[5]
MarketBeat highlighted that the rally came on the heels of a Q3 earnings beat, but against a backdrop of heavy insider selling and lingering valuation worries. ^[6]

A Motley Fool piece (syndicated via other portals) framed the session as a relief rally: there was no fresh corporate press release on Friday, but investors were recalibrating Circle’s steep selloff against its strong fundamental growth, even as the stock remains far below its summer highs. ^[7]

November 29: Jim Cramer’s “even bigger winner” comment keeps CRCL in the spotlight

News didn’t stop when the market closed. On Saturday, November 29, InsiderMonkey/Finviz recapped recent comments from Jim Cramer on CNBC’s Mad Money regarding Circle Internet Group. ^[8]

Key takeaways from Cramer’s remarks, as summarized in that report:

He noted that Circle raised roughly $1.2 billion at $31 per share in its IPO and that, even around the low‑$70s, it remains the “biggest winner” in this year’s IPO class by percentage gain. ^[9]
Cramer framed Circle as a “digital asset” and fintech story rather than a pure crypto speculation play, arguing that if companies adopt crypto‑denominated payments at scale, Circle “could be an even bigger winner.” ^[10]
At the same time, he pointed out the sharp pullback from CRCL’s highs and noted that while insiders have been selling, the transactions have not yet reached catastrophic levels. ^[11]

The article effectively captured how retail sentiment now sits between excitement and wariness: CRCL is a clear IPO standout, but one that already rode a euphoric wave in June and now trades in a much more demanding post‑hype environment.

November 30: JPMorgan’s $65M stake, valuation debates and a lock‑up countdown

Sunday brought another headline that could influence how CRCL trades before and after Monday’s open.

JPMorgan discloses new $65.26 million position

A MarketBeat instant alert on November 30 reported that JPMorgan Chase & Co. acquired a new position of 359,979 Circle shares in the second quarter, valued at about $65.26 million and representing roughly 0.16% of the company’s equity. ^[12]

The same filing‑based piece noted that several smaller institutions have also initiated positions, while Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest has built a substantial stake across multiple ETFs, underscoring institutional interest even as the share price has been under pressure. ^[13]

But insiders are selling and a big lock‑up is looming

MarketBeat’s coverage and subsequent analysis from TS2 and others also highlighted the other side of the flow equation:

Company insiders have sold roughly 551,000 CRCL shares in the last quarter, worth about $45.6 million, including a large block from director Rajeev Date. ^[14]
A deeper dive from TS2 Tech stressed a key near‑term catalyst: Circle’s IPO lock‑up period is set to expire on December 2, 2025, potentially freeing tens of millions of insider and early‑investor shares for trading just days after Friday’s bounce. TS2 Tech

That combination — big‑name institutions buying in size while insiders and prospective unlocks swell the potential float — is one of the main tensions hanging over CRCL heading into Monday.

“Valuation reset” vs. stablecoin supercycle

A separate weekend piece from AInvest cast the recent pullback as a potential “valuation reset” in a long‑term “stablecoin supercycle” story. ^[15]

Using public filings and market data, that analysis argued:

Circle and USDC now control roughly 29% of a ~$308 billion global stablecoin market, up hundreds of basis points year‑on‑year. ^[16]
USDC circulation surged 108% year‑on‑year to $73.7 billion in Q3 2025, driving 66% growth in total revenue and reserve income to about $740 million. ^[17]
Net income jumped to $214 million and adjusted EBITDA to $166 million, while total debt remains modest at about $37 million, leaving Circle with a largely unlevered balance sheet. ^[18]
Even after the drawdown, CRCL trades on a forward P/E near 96, with a negative trailing P/E, reflecting the company’s recent shift into profitability and the market’s expectations for much faster earnings growth ahead. ^[19]

For AInvest and similar commentators, the core question is whether the market is underestimating the durability of stablecoin adoption and Circle’s regulatory edge, or over‑paying for a single‑product story whose earnings are heavily tied to interest rates and USDC dominance. ^[20]

Fundamentals in focus: Q3 earnings, regulation and the stablecoin race

Much of the debate around CRCL’s valuation circles back to the Q3 2025 results and the broader regulatory environment.

Q3 2025: strong numbers, skeptical market

In its November 12 earnings release, Circle reported for the quarter ended September 30: ^[21]

USDC in circulation: $73.7 billion, +108% year‑on‑year
Total revenue & reserve income: about $740 million, +66% year‑on‑year
Net income:$214 million, +202% year‑on‑year
Adjusted EBITDA:$166 million, +78% year‑on‑year

Reuters noted that adjusted earnings per share came in around the mid‑30‑cent range, comfortably ahead of Wall Street estimates in the low‑20‑cent range, even as the stock fell about 10% on the day amid worries about competition, margins and valuation. ^[22]

Circle also raised parts of its 2025 guidance, including targets for “other revenue” and adjusted operating expenses, signaling continued investment in new products like USYC (a tokenized money‑market fund) and the Arc Network, its own layer‑1 blockchain aimed at embedding stablecoins into payments and commerce infrastructure. TS2 Tech+1

Regulatory tailwinds: GENIUS Act and MiCA

Regulation is a rare bright spot for a crypto‑linked stock:

In June 2025, the U.S. Senate passed the GENIUS Act, the first comprehensive federal framework for payment stablecoins, requiring full 1:1 backing with cash and high‑quality liquid assets and setting licensing and disclosure standards. ^[23]
Circle, as a U.S.‑based, fully reserved issuer, has endorsed the law and positioned USDC as a compliant, transparent alternative to offshore competitors. ^[24]
The EU’s MiCA regime and similar rules abroad are also pushing stablecoins into more tightly supervised territory, which tends to favor larger, well‑capitalized issuers. ^[25]

That backdrop helped fuel earlier surges in CRCL. Following the GENIUS Act’s passage, Circle stock spiked further, with Investopedia noting that shares were trading more than six times their $31 IPO price at one point in June. ^[26]

IPO context: from blockbuster debut to brutal comedown

Circle’s June 5, 2025 IPO remains one of the defining crypto listings of the decade so far:

The company priced its IPO at $31 per share, raising over $1 billion, and shares quickly surged well over 100% in early trading. ^[27]
Reuters later reported that the stock had more than tripled its IPO price despite bouts of volatility. ^[28]
Analysts were split almost from day one: firms such as Barclays and Bernstein issued bullish notes with price targets above $200, while JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs warned that valuations looked stretched, assigning targets closer to $80–$83. ^[29]

That early divergence in Wall Street opinion is still visible in the current analyst spread: TS2’s synthesis of data from various brokers suggests 12‑month targets cluster between roughly $70 and the high‑$100s, with an average around $150, implying nearly 90% upside from Friday’s close but a wide band of potential outcomes. TS2 Tech+1

Key bull and bear forces to watch on Monday, December 1

Heading into the December 1 open, here are the main narratives likely to shape CRCL’s pre‑market and early‑session trading.

Bullish drivers

Institutional vote of confidence
- The new $65 million JPMorgan stake adds a blue‑chip bank to a roster of institutional holders that already includes ARK Invest and multiple other funds, reinforcing the idea that large, sophisticated players see long‑term value in Circle’s position in stablecoins. ^[30]
Explosive fundamental growth
- Q3 figures show triple‑digit growth in USDC circulation, two‑thirds revenue growth, and a sharp ramp in profitability, all on a largely unlevered balance sheet. That makes CRCL one of the few crypto‑adjacent companies currently posting solid profits instead of just promises. ^[31]
Regulatory clarity and a relative edge vs. Tether
- With GENIUS and MiCA in force, regulators are effectively codifying the very practices Circle has promoted—full reserves and transparency—at the same time that S&P has slapped rival Tether with its weakest stability rating, citing reserve‑mix and disclosure concerns. ^[32]
- If capital and end‑users gravitate toward better‑regulated issuers, USDC’s share gains could accelerate. ^[33]
Macro tailwinds and risk appetite
- U.S. equities just logged one of their stronger weeks since June, helped by record Black Friday spending and growing expectations for Fed rate cuts in 2026, which support risk assets broadly. TS2 Tech+1
- Crypto‑linked equities often amplify these macro moves, and CRCL’s high beta means it can move quickly when sentiment is favorable.
“High‑conviction growth” narrative
- Analysts like William Blair describe Circle as a high‑quality crypto infrastructure play, expecting USDC to catalyze a “seismic shift” in cross‑border B2B finance, with multi‑billion‑dollar revenue potential over the next few years. ^[34]

Bearish drivers

Valuation risk and extreme volatility
- Even after the pullback, CRCL trades at a forward P/E near 96 with negative trailing metrics, leaving little room for disappointment. ^[35]
- The stock has already swung from ~$31 (IPO price) to nearly $300 and back into the $70s–$80s within six months, underlining just how brutal drawdowns can be when sentiment turns. TS2 Tech+2Investopedia+2
Share‑supply overhang
- The December 2 lock‑up expiration is days away, and data from MarketBeat indicate hundreds of thousands of shares have already been sold by insiders, with tens of millions more potentially becoming freely tradable next week. ^[36]
- If early backers use strength to exit, the stock could face persistent selling pressure, regardless of fundamentals.
Interest‑rate and reserve‑income dependence
- A large share of Circle’s profits comes from interest on the reserves backing USDC, much of it in short‑term U.S. Treasuries. Should the Fed follow through on rate cuts, revenues and margins could compress even if USDC continues to grow. ^[37]
Competitive and regulatory uncertainty
- Tether still commands about 59% of the stablecoin market, and new entrants—from banks to Big Tech—can now launch their own regulated stablecoins under clearer rules. ^[38]
- Some jurisdictions, especially in emerging markets, may ultimately take a tougher stance on dollar stablecoins if they fear capital flight, potentially limiting USDC’s growth in key regions. ^[39]
Crypto‑market and sentiment risk
- Circle’s Q3 selloff, despite beating estimates, showed how quickly valuation, guidance tweaks and crypto‑market weakness can swamp strong headline numbers. If bitcoin or broader digital‑asset prices stumble again, CRCL is likely to feel the shock. ^[40]

What to watch in CRCL before and after the bell

For traders and investors monitoring CRCL around the December 1, 2025 open, the following checkpoints may prove especially important:

Pre‑market reaction to JPMorgan’s stake
- Watch whether pre‑market quotes gap higher on the $65 million JPMorgan disclosure, or whether the news is seen as old information already priced in (the stake dates back to Q2 filings). A strong bid in pre‑market or at the open would signal that headline‑driven buyers are still flocking in. ^[41]
Volume and order‑book depth
- Friday’s volume of ~22 million shares versus a 13.5 million average shows that liquidity can expand quickly when CRCL is in play. If Monday’s order book looks thin while lock‑up chatter grows louder, intra‑day swings could be even more violent. TS2 Tech+1
Crypto and stablecoin headlines overnight
- Any fresh news on USDC mint/burn activity, further fallout from Tether’s downgrade, or regulatory announcements could skew sentiment sharply one way or the other. ^[42]
Broader market tone
- Futures referencing major U.S. indices, plus bitcoin and large‑cap crypto moves, will matter. In recent sessions CRCL has behaved like a levered expression of both crypto and fintech sentiment, exaggerating moves in either direction. TS2 Tech+1

Bottom line: high‑beta gateway to the stablecoin story

Circle Internet Group enters Monday’s session as one of the purest public‑market ways to trade the rise of regulated digital dollars. The last three days of headlines — half‑billion USDC mints, a competitor downgrade, JPMorgan’s new stake, and an imminent lock‑up expiration — have only sharpened the contrast between its powerful tailwinds and equally powerful risks. ^[43]

For long‑term investors, the question is whether CRCL’s current level represents an early stop on a much longer adoption curve for stablecoins, or simply a temporary resting place in a volatile re‑rating of a richly valued growth stock. For short‑term traders, Monday’s open and the days around the December 2 lock‑up could offer ample opportunity — and equally ample downside — as flows, headlines and positioning collide. TS2 Tech+1

As always, this article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Anyone considering an investment in CRCL or related assets should perform independent research, consider their risk tolerance, and, where appropriate, consult a qualified financial adviser.