- Stock Whiplash: Cleveland-Cliffs (NYSE: CLF) shares plunged ~12% on Oct. 30, 2025, falling into the low-$12 range after the company announced a 75 million share offering to raise roughly $964 million – a move that caught investors off-guard and drove dilution fears [1] [2].
- Earlier Surge: Just days prior, CLF stock hit a 52-week high (~$16.50 intraday) on upbeat Q3 earnings and strategic news. Shares spiked ~20% on Oct. 20 alone amid stronger steel demand and a surprise pivot into rare-earth minerals, before settling around $15.50 (+16% on the day) [3] [4].
- Earnings & Tariff Boost:Q3 2025 revenue rose 3.6% year-over-year to $4.73 billion, while the adjusted net loss of $0.45/share was slightly better than expected (Wall Street was bracing for –$0.48) [5]. CEO Lourenco Goncalves credited new 50% U.S. steel import tariffs for a domestic demand “recovery,” enabling Cliffs to lock in multi-year contracts with all major automakers at higher volumes through 2027–28 [6] [7].
- New Ventures & Deals: Cliffs revealed plans to explore rare-earth elements at its iron ore mines in Michigan and Minnesota – aligning with a U.S. push for critical minerals independence [8] – and even signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with a major global steel producer. Management calls the potential partnership “highly accretive,” as foreign steelmakers seek tariff-free U.S. access [9] [10]. These strategic moves fueled investor excitement about Cliffs’ future beyond traditional steel.
- Analyst Caution: Despite 2025’s volatility, Wall Street remains cautious on CLF. The consensus rating is Hold, with an average 12-month price target around $11–$12 – notably below recent trading levels [11]. Analysts laud Cliffs’ tariff-driven momentum and unique positioning, but flag high debt and cyclicality as risks. As one noted, “Cliffs is clearly a beneficiary of tariffs” yet if steel prices drop or auto demand falters, “profits could come under pressure” [12]. Some bears still see downside: e.g. Morgan Stanley’s target is just $10.50 (Equal-Weight) amid concern that Cliffs is still unprofitable and highly leveraged [13].
- Steel Industry Context: Cleveland-Cliffs now stands as the largest U.S.-headquartered steel producer, especially after rival U.S. Steel was acquired by Nippon Steel of Japan in mid-2025 [14] [15]. Cliffs’ vertically-integrated blast furnace model (mining iron ore to finished steel) contrasts with efficient “mini-mill” competitors like Nucor (NYSE: NUE), which uses electric arc furnaces and remained profitable through downturns [16]. Tariffs have lifted all domestic steelmakers, but industry-wide steel prices have moderated from 2021 highs [17]. Cliffs’ stock (+~40% YTD before the recent pullback) far outpaced peers like Nucor (+17% YTD) this year [18] [19], reflecting Cliffs’ outsized exposure to tariff benefits – and its higher volatility in both directions.
Cleveland-Cliffs Stock Price: October 30 Update and Recent Performance
Cleveland-Cliffs’ stock price has been on a wild ride in recent weeks. On October 30, 2025, CLF shares tumbled roughly 12% intraday, trading around the $12.30 level – a sharp decline triggered by the company’s surprise decision to sell new stock. The sell-off came immediately after Cliffs announced an underwritten public offering of 75 million common shares (with an option for 11.25 million more) priced at about $12.85 per share [20] [21]. This move would raise approximately $964 million in gross proceeds for the company, but it also significantly increases the total share count, diluting existing shareholders’ stakes. Investors reacted swiftly to the dilution risk, sending CLF down from its previous $14+ range into the low $12s [22] [23]. By midday, the stock was off over 12%, reflecting a dramatic swing in sentiment from just a week prior.
This steep drop stands in stark contrast to the rally Cleveland-Cliffs enjoyed earlier in the month. On October 20, the stock surged to new 52-week highs, jumping nearly 20% in one day after the company reported its third-quarter results and unveiled promising strategic initiatives [24]. CLF hit an intraday peak around $16.50 (a fresh high for the year, up ~24% at one point) before settling near $15.50 by that market close [25]. Even at the close, the stock was up about +16% for the day, capping a multi-week upswing. That rally brought Cleveland-Cliffs’ year-to-date gain to roughly +42% as of mid-October [26] – a remarkable turnaround for a stock that had been languishing in the low double-digits just a few months ago.
The whiplash between those highs and the latest plunge underscores Cleveland-Cliffs’ elevated volatility. In fact, CLF has a beta near 2.0 – almost twice the market’s volatility [27] – meaning big swings are nothing new for its investors. The stock’s rollercoaster in late October was driven by shifting narratives: first euphoria over strong earnings and new growth prospects, and then anxiety over a major capital raise. As of October 30, Cliffs’ share price is roughly 25% off its recent peak, illustrating how quickly market sentiment can reverse for a cyclical, leveraged company like this. Even so, CLF remains above where it started the month, and notably higher than its summer trading range – a testament to the powerful tailwinds (and now some headwinds) it has encountered in 2025.
Major News & Developments: Q3 Earnings, Rare-Earth Plans, and Share Offering
Several major developments have unfolded at Cleveland-Cliffs in recent weeks, collectively reshaping the outlook for the company and its stock. Below, we break down the key news: the third-quarter earnings results, a strategic pivot into rare-earth minerals, a new partnership MOU, and the latest share offering.
Third-Quarter Earnings Beat (and Ongoing Losses): On October 20, Cleveland-Cliffs released its Q3 2025 earnings, showing a mix of encouraging trends and lingering challenges. Revenue for Q3 came in at $4.73 billion, up about +3.6% year-over-year, driven by higher steel shipments and an improved sales mix [28]. This top-line figure slightly missed analysts’ forecasts (~$4.9 billion was expected), but still signaled growing demand in Cliffs’ core markets [29]. The company reported an adjusted net loss of $0.45 per share (roughly $230 million), which was essentially flat compared to the year-ago loss and actually narrower than Wall Street anticipated [30]. (Analysts had predicted about a –$0.48 per share loss, so Cliffs beat on the bottom line by a few cents.) In other words, Cliffs is still losing money, but the losses are not worsening – and some underlying metrics improved.
Notably, automotive steel demand emerged as a bright spot. CEO Lourenco Goncalves highlighted that sales to the automotive sector were robust, buoyed by a richer product mix of higher-value steel grades [31]. Cliffs shipped 4.0 million tons of steel in Q3, up from 3.8 million a year ago [32], reflecting an uptick in volumes. The CEO credited favorable market conditions and the company’s own cost discipline for the improved performance. “Our Q3 results show a richer sales mix and improved pricing, further bolstered by our continued execution on costs,” Goncalves said in the earnings release [33]. The company has been reducing expenditures (cutting 2025 capital spending forecasts to around $525 million) and streamlining operations, which helped lift its adjusted EBITDA by 50+% quarter-over-quarter to $143 million [34] – a sign that Cliffs’ core steel business is moving in the right direction, even if it’s not yet back to profitability.
Tariffs Spark a Steel Revival: A crucial factor underpinning Cleveland-Cliffs’ improved fortunes is the U.S. government’s protectionist trade policy. Earlier this year, President Donald Trump imposed sweeping 50% tariffs on imported steel (and raised duties on aluminum) to curb foreign competition [35]. This extraordinary tariff – far higher than the prior 25% steel tariff – has effectively priced most imported steel out of the market, especially for high-volume consumers like automakers. Cliffs wasted no time capitalizing on this home-field advantage. Goncalves noted that the “new trade environment” allowed Cleveland-Cliffs to win new multi-year supply contracts with all major U.S. automakers [36]. During the Q3 earnings call, he revealed that Cliffs has locked in 2- to 3-year agreements with Ford, GM, Stellantis and others, covering higher steel volumes with favorable pricing through 2027–2028 [37] [38]. In effect, Detroit’s Big Three carmakers have committed to sourcing much of their steel from Cleveland-Cliffs for the next several years, now that cheaper foreign steel is largely off the table. This is a major win for Cliffs – ensuring steady demand for its flat-rolled steel and electrical steels used in vehicles, and validating its 2020 decision to acquire the integrated steel operations that supply auto manufacturers.
Cliffs’ CEO struck an unapologetically bullish tone on the tariff impact. “Our third quarter results marked a clear sign of demand recovery for automotive-grade steel made in the USA, and that is a direct consequence of the new trade environment,” Goncalves stated [39] [40]. He described the U.S. as “hostile territory for dumped steel from abroad,” arguing that Cliffs – as the only fully integrated American steel producer of scale – is uniquely positioned to benefit [41]. Indeed, in Q3 Cliffs saw an uptick in its steel prices and product mix, which management directly attributed to the tariff-driven shift toward domestic suppliers [42]. To further illustrate the policy support, just a week before Cliffs’ earnings, President Trump announced new 25% tariffs on imported heavy trucks and parts [43] – a move aimed at pushing more auto supply chain production into the U.S. Cliffs stands to gain from such policies, as it produces the steel for both vehicles and parts. All told, trade protections have revitalized Cliffs’ order book, turning what was a demand slump in 2024 into a growth story in 2025.
Rare-Earth Minerals Pivot: Perhaps the biggest surprise in Cliffs’ announcements was its foray into the world of rare-earth elements (REEs) – a completely new arena for this 176-year-old steel company. Alongside the Q3 results, Cleveland-Cliffs unveiled plans to explore for rare-earth minerals at two of its iron ore mining sites, located in northern Michigan and Minnesota [44]. According to the company, preliminary geological surveys show “key indications of rare-earth mineralization” at those locations [45]. These could include valuable elements like neodymium, praseodymium, or dysprosium (critical for magnets, EV motors, and defense technologies), though Cliffs has not yet specified the exact minerals.
CEO Goncalves framed this initiative as both a strategic diversification and a patriotic duty. “Beyond steelmaking, the renewed importance of rare earths has driven us to refocus on this potential opportunity at our upstream mining assets,” he said [46]. The idea is that Cliffs’ existing mines – which primarily extract iron ore – might also yield rare-earth byproducts from the surrounding ore and tailings. If those minerals can be economically extracted, Cliffs could tap into a lucrative supply chain outside its traditional steel market. Goncalves emphasized that any success here would align with the national strategy for critical material independence, noting that “American manufacturing shouldn’t rely on China or any foreign nation for essential minerals” [47]. (Currently, China dominates global rare-earth processing, a vulnerability U.S. policymakers have been keen to address.)
Investors immediately cheered this rare-earth angle. The mere announcement of Cliffs’ exploration plans helped ignite the stock’s 20%+ surge on Oct. 20 [48] [49]. The market appears excited by the prospect that Cleveland-Cliffs could evolve from a pure steel producer into an integrated steel-and-minerals company, potentially unlocking a new revenue stream in the future. However, management cautions that this is a long-term project in early stages. Cliffs will conduct more detailed studies in 2026 to confirm if economically viable rare-earth deposits exist [50]. Any actual mining or processing of rare earths would require new expertise, permits, and likely partnerships or government support. For now, analysts are not yet factoring any rare-earth revenue into their forecasts – it’s essentially a “free upside” scenario, if it materializes [51]. Still, the rare-earth pivot has given Cliffs a bit of tech-sector shine and speaks to Goncalves’ willingness to think outside the traditional steel box.
“Highly Accretive” MOU with a Global Steel Player: In another intriguing twist, Cleveland-Cliffs disclosed that it has signed a memorandum of understanding with a major international steel producer – hinting at some form of strategic partnership or transaction in the works [52]. The company has been tight-lipped on specifics (citing confidentiality), but Mr. Goncalves described the potential deal as “highly accretive to Cliffs’ shareholders” and suggested it leverages Cliffs’ domestic footprint and recent trade-related developments [53].
This announcement immediately sparked speculation. One theory is that a foreign steel company might invest in or collaborate with Cliffs to get better access to the protected U.S. market. As Jefferies analysts observed, “foreign steel producers are willing to materially invest in the U.S. under the current administration to get un-tariffed access to U.S. end-markets” [54]. In other words, overseas steelmakers may seek a stake or joint venture with Cliffs as a way around the steep import tariffs – effectively partnering instead of competing. Goncalves hinted that the MOU grew out of such trade dynamics and Cliffs’ unique position in the U.S. market [55].
The MOU could also relate to some form of technology exchange or supply agreement. Notably, Cliffs mentioned an “MOU with a global steel producer” last quarter as well, in reference to a possible joint venture on carbon-efficient ironmaking (though no details were given publicly). It’s unclear if the latest MOU is the same or a new one. Management did say they expect to share more details soon, once negotiations progress [56]. If the deal comes to fruition, it could involve anything from a co-investment in new facilities, to an offtake agreement, or even an equity stake in Cliffs by the partner. For now, investors can only speculate, but the prospect of a deep-pocketed ally (or infusion of capital) is another element supporting Cliffs’ bull case. Of course, there’s no guarantee an MOU will lead to a final deal – but it’s certainly on the radar for CLF watchers in the coming months.
Share Offering for Debt Reduction: The most recent development – and the catalyst for the Oct. 30 stock drop – is Cleveland-Cliffs’ decision to issue new equity. Late on Oct. 29, the company priced a public offering of 75 million common shares at approximately $12.85 each, for gross proceeds of about $964 million [57] [58]. The offering, led by UBS as sole underwriter, is set to close on Oct. 31 and includes an option for the bank to buy an extra 11.25 million shares to cover any overallotments [59]. This move will significantly increase Cliffs’ share count (by roughly 15% if all shares are sold, or more with the option), which immediately dilutes the value of existing shares. That dilution effect is exactly why the stock sank ~10–12% on the news – essentially pricing in the value per share reduction.
Why raise nearly $1 billion now? According to the company, the primary aim is to pay down debt. Cleveland-Cliffs plans to use the bulk of the net proceeds to repay borrowings under its asset-based revolving credit facility, with any leftover funds for “general corporate purposes” [60]. In recent years Cliffs has accumulated substantial debt from its acquisitions and investments (the company’s debt-to-equity ratio stood around 1.3 as of Q3 [61] [62]). With interest rates high and some debt maturities approaching, Cliffs appears to be taking the opportunity to shore up its balance sheet. By reducing its revolving credit borrowings, Cliffs regains financial flexibility and cuts interest expenses, which could be prudent if the economic cycle turns. Goncalves noted that deleveraging is a priority, and this equity raise is a way to accelerate that process without further stretching the balance sheet with more loans [63].
Investors, however, are often wary when a company issues shares after a big run-up in stock price. In Cliffs’ case, the timing – coming right after a 40% rally – suggests management saw a window to raise capital at relatively favorable prices. But it also signaled to the market that Cliffs might have needed cash urgently enough to dilute shareholders. The offering price of $12.85 was below the previous day’s close (~$14.09), which is typical in such deals to entice buyers [64]. The nearly $1 billion infusion will indeed reduce debt (which is a long-term positive), but in the near term it clips the upside for existing shareholders by expanding the float. This kind of trade-off – strengthening the company versus hurting the stock – is common for highly leveraged firms like Cliffs. Wall Street’s initial verdict was clear: better balance sheet or not, the dilution “put pressure on the stock price” [65] [66], erasing some of the tariff-fueled gains of October.
It’s worth noting that Cliffs is no stranger to bold capital moves. Just a few years ago, the company used stock (and debt) aggressively to acquire AK Steel and ArcelorMittal USA, transforming itself from an iron ore miner into an integrated steel giant. More recently, in 2023–2024, Cliffs even attempted to use its stock as currency to acquire rival U.S. Steel (more on that saga below). Thus, current shareholders have often seen their stakes fluctuate with Cliffs’ strategic maneuvers. In the case of this 2025 offering, management appears to be prioritizing a stronger financial foundation – essentially betting that a leaner, less indebted Cliffs will ultimately command a higher share price, even if it means short-term pain for the stock.
Analyst and Expert Commentary: What the Market Is Saying
Cleveland-Cliffs’ dramatic ups and downs have drawn a range of reactions from financial analysts and market experts. Overall, the tone is one of cautious optimism – acknowledging the positive catalysts (tariffs, demand recovery, new ventures) but also urging caution given the company’s lingering challenges (lack of profits, high debt, and cyclicality). Here’s a look at what the experts are saying:
Wall Street Ratings and Targets: Despite Cliffs’ robust stock performance in 2025, the Wall Street consensus on CLF is lukewarm. According to MarketBeat data, out of recent analyst opinions there are roughly 3 Buys, 5 Holds, and 2 Sell-equivalents, which averages out to about a “Hold/Moderate Buy” rating [67]. In practical terms, many analysts are sitting on the fence – impressed by Cliffs’ momentum but not fully convinced the company has turned a corner. The average 12-month price target for CLF is only about $11–$12 per share [68], below the stock’s current price in the mid-$12s and well under its recent highs. That implies analysts, on average, see limited upside (or even some downside) from here, likely reflecting a view that the stock’s big run has overreached near-term fundamentals. In fact, after the post-earnings surge pushed CLF above $15, the stock was trading 25–30% higher than what analysts collectively thought it was worth [69] [70] – a gap that often invites either analyst upgrades or a stock pullback. As it turned out, the pullback came first (via the share offering news).
Positive Takes: A number of analysts have raised their outlook on Cliffs in light of the tariff boost and earnings improvements – though often with guarded language. For instance, Goldman Sachs reiterated a Buy and bumped its price target to $14.50 in early October, one of the more bullish stances [71]. Goldman’s analysts argued that Cliffs’ integrated model (owning mines plus mills) and strategic moves like the rare-earth exploration could unlock value, especially if any partnership (the MOU) materializes [72]. Similarly, KeyBanc Capital upgraded Cliffs over the summer to Overweight with a $14 target, seeing improving fundamentals and tariff benefits [73]. By late October, that $14 target had already been exceeded by the stock, making KeyBanc’s earlier call look prescient (if now somewhat conservative). JPMorgan also upped its target from $10 to $13 (Neutral rating) just ahead of earnings [74], acknowledging the tariff-driven upside but stopping short of a buy recommendation. In general, the bulls highlight that Cliffs is uniquely leveraging the current environment – it has become the prime beneficiary of U.S. steel protectionism and has locked in big customers for years, which could translate into much better earnings in 2026 if all goes well [75] [76]. Some even speculate that Cliffs’ valuable assets and market position could make it an acquisition target itself someday (were it not for political hurdles) [77] [78].
Negative and Neutral Takes: On the other side, concerns abound. Bank of America recently raised its CLF target to $14.50 (from $12.50) after Q3, but crucially maintained a Neutral rating [79]. BofA’s note applauded Cliffs’ better-than-expected EBITDA and pricing, yet it flagged the company’s high debt load relative to peers as a key reason for caution [80]. In their view, Cliffs is fairly valued in the mid-teens unless it can significantly deleverage or boost earnings – a stance seemingly vindicated by Cliffs’ subsequent equity raise to pay down debt. Morgan Stanley has been even more skeptical: they held an Equal-Weight rating and a $10.50 target on CLF (as of this past summer), basically suggesting the stock will lag the market [81]. Morgan Stanley’s analysts point out that Cliffs is still losing money on the bottom line and that the steel cycle could weaken, especially if economic growth slows. They, along with some independent research firms (like Weiss Ratings, which grades CLF a “sell”), also warn that Cliffs’ fate is heavily tied to political winds [82]. If a future administration rolls back the tariffs or if global steel oversupply worsens, Cliffs could “be caught flat-footed”, one analyst said [83]. Essentially, the bears see Cliffs’ current strength as somewhat hype-driven and temporary – propped up by policy and post-pandemic demand, but vulnerable to any downturn.
Tariffs: Boon or Temporary Bubble? There is broad agreement that tariffs have changed the game for Cliffs – but debate on how sustainable that advantage is. “Cliffs is clearly a beneficiary of tariffs,” one market commentary noted, yet “if steel prices fall or demand falters, profits could come under pressure ahead” [84]. Several analysts have explicitly modeled scenarios: with tariffs remaining, Cliffs could swing to healthy profits; without them, Cliffs might sink back into losses given its higher cost structure [85] [86]. The company’s political dependence is a common refrain. It’s worth noting that the current 50% steel tariff is unusually high and was enacted via executive action – which means a change in leadership or policy priorities in Washington could alter that landscape quickly. Cliffs’ CEO has essentially bet on the tariffs persisting, and indeed he has been vocally supportive of them (Goncalves often lobbies for domestic steel protections). Some analysts caution investors not to assume the tariff boost is permanent, advising to monitor the 2024 U.S. elections and trade talks closely [87] [88].
Rare Earths: Hype vs. Reality: Cleveland-Cliffs’ rare-earth ambitions have added a splash of excitement – but also a note of skepticism from seasoned stock watchers. The Motley Fool, for example, published an article bluntly titled “Why Cleveland-Cliffs Stock Popped Today” to explain the rare-earth news, and in it they urged that investors shouldn’t get caught up in the rare earths hype [89]. The Fool’s analysts emphasized that Cliffs’ core value is in its steel business, and that any rare-earth venture, while intriguing, is speculative and years away from bearing fruit [90]. They advised focusing more on the forthcoming updates around the steel MOU (which could impact earnings sooner) rather than dreaming of Cliffs becoming the next MP Materials overnight [91]. This cautious stance is echoed by others who note that many mining companies have announced rare-earth forays given the geopolitical buzz, but few have yet proven they can produce these minerals economically. That said, the strategic logic of Cliffs’ move isn’t lost on observers – it complements a broader narrative of U.S. resource security. If Cliffs even demonstrates modest progress on rare earths (say, confirming a mineable reserve or securing a government grant), some bulls argue it could “add icing on the cake” to the stock’s story in 2026–2027 [92] [93]. For now, though, analysts are mostly in wait-and-see mode on this front.
Market Strategists – Momentum vs. Fundamentals: The sheer magnitude of CLF’s recent swings has also drawn commentary from trading-oriented experts. Some note that short-term momentum traders piled into Cliffs after the earnings pop, given the stock’s heavy volume and option activity [94] [95]. “There’s a bit of FOMO after such a big one-day jump,” observed one market brief, which pointed out an influx of bullish options bets as CLF share price rocketed [96]. This may have exaggerated the rally beyond what long-term fundamentals alone would dictate. Now, with the stock pulling back, some technical analysts are watching whether Cliffs can hold key support levels (it was well above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages during the peak) [97]. Valuation metrics also come into play: at ~$15, Cliffs was trading around 8x forward EBITDA – not unusual for steel stocks – but it had no P/E due to negative earnings [98]. “The stock’s recent spike means much of the good news is now priced in,” one analyst remarked, “so Cliffs will need to deliver real profit improvements to justify further upside” [99] [100]. That essentially sums up Wall Street’s stance: show us the money (in terms of earnings), and the stock can keep rising; otherwise, it may have run ahead of itself.
In summary, analysts and experts are split between excitement and prudence. The bulls applaud Cleveland-Cliffs’ savvy moves – locking in customers, cutting costs, exploring new markets – and believe the company is on the cusp of a significant upcycle in fortunes. They argue Cliffs has “cemented a dominant role” in U.S. automotive steel under tariff protection, and any success in rare-earth mining would be a bonus [101] [102]. A few optimists even speculate that Cliffs’ strong position could attract an acquirer (though any foreign bid would face political hurdles) [103] [104]. The bears, however, contend that Cliffs is running hot on hype – it remains a highly leveraged, cyclical company with negative net income, now trading at a richer valuation than some more proven peers [105] [106]. They caution that if the macro environment turns or the political winds shift, much of Cliffs’ gains could evaporate as quickly as they came [107] [108]. As a result, many pros are advising investors to stay balanced – acknowledge Cliffs’ improvements, but keep expectations in check [109] [110]. Cleveland-Cliffs has given Wall Street plenty to talk about; now it must execute to turn those talks into tangible results.
Steel Industry Context: Cliffs vs. Competitors in a Changing Landscape
To understand Cleveland-Cliffs’ prospects, it’s useful to view them in the broader context of the steel and mining industry. Cliffs operates in a highly cyclical, globally influenced sector, where factors like trade policy, raw material costs, and end-market demand drive fortunes. Here we compare Cliffs with two key competitors – Nucor Corporation and U.S. Steel – and examine the industry trends impacting all players.
Cleveland-Cliffs’ Niche: Cleveland-Cliffs is now the largest U.S.-headquartered integrated steelmaker. It has a unique “mine-to-mill” model: the company mines iron ore (and produces pellets and HBI), uses traditional blast furnaces to make steel, and then rolls specialized flat steel products (galvanized sheets, electrical steel, plate, etc.), with a major focus on the automotive sector [111] [112]. Cliffs also inherited some downstream operations (stamping, tooling, tubular components) through acquisitions, making it a vertically integrated supplier to manufacturers [113]. This model gives Cliffs control over its raw materials and the ability to produce high-end steels (like ultra-high-strength auto steel and electrical steel for EV motors) that mini-mill producers historically couldn’t match [114]. The flip side is higher fixed costs – blast furnaces and mines are capital-intensive and less flexible. Cliffs tends to have higher breakeven costs and was unprofitable during industry downturns, whereas some competitors remained in the black.
Nucor – The Mini-Mill Giant:Nucor (NYSE: NUE) is America’s largest steel producer by tonnage and the poster child of the “mini-mill” model, which uses electric arc furnaces (EAFs) to melt scrap steel (and sometimes DRI) into new steel. Nucor’s approach is almost the inverse of Cliffs’: it forgoes upstream mining, instead relying on scrap recycling, which gives it a much leaner cost structure and more flexibility to throttle production up or down quickly [115]. Nucor has a diversified product line (rebar, beams, sheet, plate, etc.) and is known for operational efficiency and a non-union workforce. Crucially, Nucor remained solidly profitable even during recent steel price downturns, while Cliffs was incurring losses [116] [117].
In 2025, Nucor continued to post profits, though smaller than the record levels seen in the 2021 commodity boom. In fact, Nucor warned that its Q3 2025 earnings would be weaker across all segments due to moderating steel prices and margins [118]. When Nucor released its results in late October, the stock’s reaction was relatively muted – a small uptick – nothing like Cliffs’ double-digit surge [119]. Year-to-date, Nucor’s stock is up about +17% (as of late October), a respectable gain but nowhere near Cliffs’ ~40% rally [120] [121]. This contrast highlights how Cliffs’ narrative is somewhat unique right now. Cliffs had been an underdog stock at distressed valuations; with the tariff and rare-earth news, it saw an outsized percentage move as investors suddenly re-rated its prospects [122]. Nucor, by comparison, was already highly regarded for steady performance; it didn’t have similar “game-changing” headlines, so its shares have been steadier. As one report noted, Cliffs’ stock action was “nothing short of dramatic” in October, whereas Nucor’s performance was stable and expectations more tempered [123].
Strategically, both Cliffs and Nucor benefit from U.S. protectionism, though perhaps in different ways. Cliffs gains a direct edge in its core automotive sheet steel market since foreign competitors are largely shut out by the 50% tariff (imported auto-grade steel from Europe or Asia became prohibitively expensive) [124]. This opened the door for Cliffs to capture contracts that might’ve otherwise gone to overseas mills. Nucor also benefits from tariffs, as it sells a lot of steel domestically (e.g. in construction), but Nucor was already one of the world’s lowest-cost producers, tariff or not [125]. Nucor’s CEO even commented that market fundamentals – like demand and scrap prices – drive their outlook more than tariffs do [126]. Indeed, Nucor’s moderate stock gains reflect broader steel fundamentals: steel prices in 2025 have been moderate, off the peaks of 2021, which has kept excitement in check. When comparing the two: Cliffs’ stock up ~40% YTD vs. Nucor’s +17% suggests investors see Cliffs as having more to gain (or more to prove) under current conditions [127]. Another peer, Steel Dynamics (NASDAQ: STLD) – another EAF-based producer – is up only about +10% YTD [128]. So Cliffs is an outlier, riding a combination of cyclical rebound and special situation (tariffs + rare earths) that others haven’t had.
U.S. Steel – A Rival in Transition:United States Steel Corporation (formerly NYSE: X) has long been Cliffs’ historical rival in the integrated steel space – but that rivalry took a major turn in 2025. As of October 2025, U.S. Steel is no longer an independent public company – it was acquired by Japan’s Nippon Steel in a $14.9 billion deal that closed in June 2025 [129] [130]. This followed a dramatic saga: in 2023, Cleveland-Cliffs itself made a high-profile bid to merge with U.S. Steel, aiming to create a domestic steel champion. Cliffs had the backing of the steelworkers’ union and offered a mix of cash and stock. However, U.S. Steel’s board rebuffed Cliffs’ offer and opted to pursue other suitors [131]. Multiple bids emerged, including from foreign entities. Ultimately, Nippon Steel – already a minority joint-venture partner with U.S. Steel in a mill – won out, agreeing to pay roughly $14 billion ( ~$55 per share) for U.S. Steel by early 2025 [132]. The Biden Administration initially blocked Nippon’s purchase on national security grounds in January 2025, given concerns over an iconic American steelmaker coming under foreign control [133]. But that decision was later reversed or overcome, possibly with concessions (a “National Security Agreement”) and after the administration changed in 2025, and the deal went through mid-year [134] [135]. By June, U.S. Steel became a wholly owned subsidiary of Nippon Steel, marking the end of U.S. Steel’s century-plus independence.
For Cleveland-Cliffs, this development has pros and cons. On one hand, Cliffs no longer had the chance to acquire U.S. Steel itself – a move Goncalves dearly wanted. However, with U.S. Steel off the table, one major domestic competitor is effectively neutralized as a takeover threat, and Cliffs didn’t have to expend massive capital or take on debt to do the merger (a silver lining for Cliffs’ shareholders) [136]. Cliffs now stands alone as the largest American-owned integrated steel producer, a fact Goncalves has touted when pitching to customers and lawmakers [137]. U.S. Steel’s mills (like those in Pennsylvania, Michigan, etc.) are still operating, but now under the umbrella of a foreign parent. Importantly, those U.S. Steel plants still benefit from the same U.S. tariffs (they produce in America, so their output isn’t taxed on import) [138]. Nippon Steel has pledged to continue investing in U.S. Steel’s facilities, so in day-to-day business, U.S. Steel (Nippon) remains a competitor to Cliffs in products like automotive sheet and tinplate [139]. However, some analysts think that being foreign-owned could limit U.S. Steel’s political leverage or aggressiveness in the current environment [140]. For instance, Nippon may avoid engaging in a cut-throat price war in the U.S. so as not to attract regulatory ire. Goncalves has hinted that Cliffs’ status as the American steel champion gives it an edge in winning “patriotism-driven” contracts – e.g. if U.S. automakers prefer a fully domestic supply chain (especially for any federally funded EV or infrastructure projects), Cliffs might have the inside track [141].
There’s also a notion that Cliffs could end up collaborating with Nippon rather than competing. Cliffs had previously sought partnerships (the mysterious MOU could even be with a player like Nippon, though that’s speculative). Now that Nippon owns U.S. Steel, some industry watchers wonder if Cliffs and Nippon might strike joint initiatives – for example, Nippon could partner in Cliffs’ auto steel or electrical steel ventures, or Cliffs could supply iron units to Nippon’s mills. Such ideas are purely conjecture at this point, but they underscore how the competitive landscape has shifted. The once-bitter Cliffs vs. U.S. Steel rivalry has effectively evolved into Cliffs vs. Nippon (via U.S. Steel) on one front, and Cliffs vs. Nucor/mini-mills on another.
To summarize the competitive landscape:
- Cleveland-Cliffs – An integrated steelmaker focused on automotive and specialized steels, controlling its own raw materials. Advantages: Tariff-protected market boost, deep ties with Detroit automakers (9 dedicated auto steel lines), and a new growth narrative (rare-earth minerals). Disadvantages: Higher cost base, high debt, currently negative earnings, and heavy exposure to the auto cycle and U.S. trade policy [142] [143].
- Nucor – A mini-mill steelmaker with flexible, low-cost operations, non-union workforce, and consistent profitability. Advantages: Can quickly adjust output, lower costs, strong balance sheet, and diversified products; not reliant on any one sector. Disadvantages: Historically couldn’t produce some ultra high-end steels (though it’s entering auto sheet now with new mills), benefits less dramatically from tariffs since it was competitive even without them; growth is steady but not explosive [144] [145].
- U.S. Steel (now part of Nippon Steel) – A legacy integrated producer (similar in capabilities to Cliffs: auto sheet, tinplate, tubular products) with a union workforce, now with foreign backing. Advantages: Nippon’s ownership could bring advanced technology (Nippon is a leader in high-grade steels) and capital for upgrades [146] [147]. The company can still leverage “Made in USA” production for tariff benefits. Disadvantages: Foreign ownership may impose new strategic goals; lost its independence, which could affect how it’s perceived in government contracts or by the USW union. Also, prior to acquisition, U.S. Steel was struggling financially, so it’s in turnaround mode under Nippon. Essentially, U.S. Steel’s future will be guided by Nippon’s plans, which involve heavy investment and tech transfer to improve its product mix [148] [149].
All players are navigating a 2025 environment where U.S. tariffs and “Buy America” policies favor domestic production, providing a tailwind. At the same time, steel prices have come off their peaks – hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices in 2025 are moderate, not soaring, which means no one is printing windfall profits like in 2021 [150] [151]. Cliffs actually commented that it’s seeing steel prices “starting to moderate” [152] – a polite way of saying prices aren’t rising much further. Nucor’s latest guidance echoed that: they foresee lower margins as steel pricing and demand normalize from the post-pandemic surge [153] [154]. Global factors like a slowing Chinese economy and Europe’s energy costs also keep a lid on steel demand growth. In this context, Cliffs’ fortunes are unusually tied to U.S. policy: the tariffs effectively set a price floor under U.S. steel prices, keeping them above world market levels [155]. If those tariffs remain high and long-lasting, Cliffs and other U.S. steelmakers have a kind of protected sandbox to operate in, potentially long enough to fix balance sheets and invest for the future [156] [157]. If the tariffs were removed, however, Cliffs would face a flood of cheaper imports and likely struggle unless it had dramatically lowered costs or differentiated its products by then [158].
As of now, Cleveland-Cliffs seems to have the upper hand in its niche (auto steel) thanks to the trade boost and its aggressive moves (like courting foreign partners and venturing into minerals) [159]. Nucor remains a formidable competitor but largely in different segments (construction steel, etc.), and its stability is almost a foil to Cliffs’ high-beta swings [160]. The “ghost” of U.S. Steel looms too: while Cliffs didn’t acquire U.S. Steel, it may indirectly benefit if Nippon Steel takes a measured approach that avoids price wars in the U.S. market [161] [162]. Additionally, Cliffs no longer has to worry about diluting its stock or piling on debt for that acquisition – a silver lining of having lost that bidding war [163]. In essence, the competitive landscape has evolved such that Cleveland-Cliffs is positioned as the leading domestic champion, but it still competes with the efficient mini-mills internally and now faces a well-capitalized foreign-owned rival externally. How Cliffs navigates this field – leveraging tariffs, innovating in products, and maybe collaborating where beneficial – will be crucial to its success.
Stock Forecast and Investment Outlook
After an eventful October, what’s the road ahead for Cleveland-Cliffs and its investors? The investment outlook for CLF hinges on a few critical factors and is being viewed through both short-term and long-term lenses:
Near-Term (Next 6–12 months): In the immediate future, volatility is likely to remain high. The stock’s recent swings demonstrate that news – whether a strategic announcement or a capital raise – can move CLF dramatically. According to consensus estimates, Cleveland-Cliffs is expected to remain unprofitable for full-year 2025 (analysts project around –$0.79 EPS for the year) [164]. However, with the new automotive contracts ramping up and cost-cutting efforts in place, the Street is cautiously forecasting that 2026 could bring a return to a small profit [165]. For example, if steel shipments and pricing hold steady under the tariffs, Cliffs’ EBITDA and margins should improve enough to break into positive earnings next year.
In terms of stock price forecasts, as mentioned, the average 12-month price target is roughly $11–$12 [166] – essentially where the stock is now, post-pullback. That suggests most analysts are not predicting big upside in the next year, likely assuming the stock will digest its recent gains and perhaps trade range-bound as the company works through its challenges. The range of targets is quite broad, though: some optimists (like at Goldman) see mid-teens as fair value, while pessimists (like Morgan Stanley or some quants) see the stock sinking back to low double-digits or even high single-digits. The consensus “Hold” rating encapsulates this mix of views. For investors, it means the professional community isn’t pounding the table to buy CLF at this level, but neither are they uniformly bearish – it’s a wait-and-see story.
Tariff & Trade Wildcard: The single biggest swing factor for Cliffs’ outlook is U.S. trade policy. As of now (late 2025), the hefty 50% steel import tariff is firmly in place – a cornerstone of the Trump Administration’s trade stance [167]. The base-case assumption for 2026 is that these tariffs remain through the election cycle, giving Cliffs a continued tailwind. Under that scenario, the bull case is that Cliffs enjoys stable or rising steel volumes to automakers, better capacity utilization at its mills, and potentially even returns to quarterly profitability in 2026 [168] [169]. However, investors should monitor Washington closely: any change in trade policy could be a game-changer. A negotiation with foreign partners, a shift in administration, or even domestic pressure (say, from steel-consuming industries complaining about high prices) could lead to a rollback or reduction of tariffs. Conversely, it’s also possible tariffs could tighten further or be extended (there’s talk of expanding them to more products, or maintaining them longer to nurture U.S. industry) [170]. Trade policy can be unpredictable – witness how in 2022 tariffs were eased under one administration, only to be doubled in 2025 under another. For now, the status quo is a positive tailwind for Cliffs into 2026 [171], but any hint of policy change will likely cause swings in CLF stock. This factor is largely out of the company’s control, making it an ever-present risk (or opportunity) that investors have to live with.
Steel Demand & Auto Market: The health of the steel market, especially automotive demand, is the other key determinant for Cliffs. On the positive side, Cliffs’ multi-year agreements with automakers mean it has secured volume commitments that should keep its steel mills busy. The outlook for U.S. auto production in 2026 is cautiously optimistic: the supply chain issues of the early 2020s (like the semiconductor shortage) have eased, and there’s some pent-up consumer demand that could support solid vehicle sales [172]. Automakers are also gearing up production of electric vehicles (EVs), which require specialty electrical steels – a niche Cliffs produces and has touted as a growth area. Additionally, U.S. infrastructure spending (including EV charging buildout from the 2022 IRA bill) could boost demand for plate and other steels. However, headwinds exist: higher interest rates have made auto loans more expensive, potentially softening car sales, and the broader economy faces recession risks that could hit consumer spending [173]. If by late 2025 or 2026 the economy wobbles and auto sales slump, Cliffs’ orders could drop despite the contracts (automakers might not need to take the maximum volumes if car lots are full). Also, the UAW autoworkers’ strike in 2025 (if extended or if labor costs jump) could impact production volumes in the near term. In summary, the demand picture for 2026 looks stable-to-positive for now, but Cliffs is heavily tied to one sector (autos), so any slowdown there would directly hurt its top line. Investors should watch auto sales trends and any guidance from Ford/GM about their steel usage as a barometer.
Debt and Financial Health: Cleveland-Cliffs’ balance sheet management will be a crucial focus in the coming year. The company ended Q3 with about $3.1 billion in liquidity (cash plus available credit) [174] and has been actively refinancing and repaying debt. It issued $275 million of new notes due 2034 in October [175], and as discussed, it’s using the new equity money to pay down the credit facility [176]. These moves should lower interest expenses and extend maturities, buying Cliffs more time to ride out any cyclical lows. Analysts like BofA have explicitly cited debt reduction as key to improving sentiment on the stock [177]. Cliffs’ goal is to get its leverage down; management is targeting $300 million in annual cost savings by Q4 2025 through efficiencies [178], and presumably to direct any excess cash flow to debt paydown. If Cliffs can demonstrate in upcoming quarters that it’s deleverageing – i.e. debt/EBITDA ratio improving – then credit ratings could improve and equity investors might grow more comfortable with the risk profile. Conversely, if high interest costs or any hiccup (like a costly operational issue or higher-than-expected capex) cause cash burn to continue, Cliffs’ stock could remain under pressure. In short, balance sheet strength (or lack thereof) will influence the stock’s valuation. For now, with the share offering, Cliffs has made a shareholder-unfriendly move to address this, which ironically could be shareholder-friendly in the long run if it averts any liquidity crunch.
Rare Earths and New Ventures: Looking further out, a lot of investor curiosity revolves around Cliffs’ non-steel ventures – primarily the rare-earth exploration. In 2026, Cliffs will likely conduct more geological analysis at the two identified sites. Any confirmation of economically viable rare-earth reserves would be a potential game-changer for the narrative [179]. It could attract interest from tech companies or defense contractors (keen on domestic rare-earth sources) or even federal support (DOE grants, etc.). Even short of mining, Cliffs might partner with an established rare-earth processor if something valuable is found. However, this is all speculative. If months go by with no news on rare earths, the initial excitement could fade and investors might refocus solely on steel fundamentals [180]. Thus, watch for any updates from Cliffs on pilot projects or partnerships in this area. Another wildcard is the outcome of the MOU with the global steel producer. Cliffs has hinted that it could turn into a joint venture or equity investment that is “highly accretive” [181]. If, say, a foreign steelmaker decided to take a minority stake in Cliffs or jointly build a new mill using Cliffs’ iron ore, that could be a significant positive – bringing in cash or technology. On the flip side, if talks fall apart or the terms aren’t favorable, that could disappoint the market. Essentially, these “story” elements (rare earths, MOU) provide upside optionality but aren’t guaranteed. Analysts largely aren’t baking these into official forecasts yet [182], which means any progress could surprise to the upside, while a lack of progress might simply keep things as-is.
Industry Cycle and Competition: Over a longer horizon, Cliffs’ fortunes will also depend on the steel industry cycle and how it navigates competition. Steel is cyclical – at some point, perhaps beyond 2026, global overcapacity or a recession could drive prices down again. Cliffs will need to prove it can be profitable throughout the cycle, not just when protected by tariffs or when demand is peaking. Its mini-mill rivals like Nucor and Steel Dynamics have shown an ability to generate profits even in tougher times; Cliffs will aim to reach that level of resilience. Part of that is continuing to improve its cost structure (the CEO’s cost-cutting initiative is key here). Also, with U.S. Steel now part of Nippon, Cliffs has one less rival vying for domestic acquisitions – but it now faces a formidable foreign-backed competitor. We might see Cliffs refocus M&A sights elsewhere: for instance, Cliffs already bought Stelco (a Canadian steelmaker) in 2024 [183], and it could look at smaller targets or downstream assets if opportunities arise [184] [185]. However, given its debt, Cliffs is more likely to consolidate what it has than do big acquisitions near-term. On the flip side, given how strategic steel is, one can’t rule out that Cliffs itself could become a target one day (though any foreign bidder would face U.S. government scrutiny) [186]. These are low-probability scenarios but things to keep in mind for long-term investors.
Investor Sentiment: Right now, one could describe the overall sentiment on CLF’s outlook as “cautiously optimistic.” There are strong reasons to be hopeful – Cleveland-Cliffs has tailwinds from trade policy, improving demand in its key markets, and leadership that’s willing to make bold moves (both in strategy and finance) [187]. The company’s immediate future looks brighter than it did a year ago: it’s growing revenue again, securing customers for the long run, and even exploring new frontiers [188]. However, there are also clear risks ahead – Cliffs’ advantages rely on external factors (tariffs, economic health), and it still has to prove it can convert today’s opportunities into actual profits and cash flow [189]. The stock’s current price already reflects a lot of optimism (as seen by the gap with analyst targets), so execution needs to follow.
In practical terms, investors in CLF should keep a close eye on several upcoming developments:
- U.S. political news (trade/tariff policy decisions, election rhetoric on manufacturing),
- Steel price trends (watch domestic HRC price and scrap costs),
- Auto production rates and any guidance from automakers on steel sourcing,
- Cliffs’ quarterly results for signs of margin improvement (especially once the new auto contracts fully kick in),
- Announcements on the rare-earth exploration (even minor updates could move the stock),
- Details on that global steel producer MOU (if a deal is struck, it could be significant).
Short-term traders might find opportunities in CLF’s swings, but should be wary of sudden news-driven jumps or drops. Long-term investors will want to judge whether Cliffs can sustain a competitive advantage as “America’s steelmaker” and perhaps evolve into something more than just a steel company. The steel and mining industry is not for the faint of heart – it has “twists and turns” even in the best of times [190]. Cleveland-Cliffs’ 2025 journey – from slump to surge to volatility – exemplifies that.
Bottom Line: Cleveland-Cliffs has staged an impressive comeback in 2025, with its stock price skyrocketing on a mix of old-fashioned steel protectionism and new-age resource ambitions. The company’s bold moves (tariffs exploitation, rare-earth pivot, partnership talks) have given it a compelling story of resurgence. However, the recent share offering reminds everyone that fundamentals ultimately matter – Cliffs still has work to do to clean up its balance sheet and return to consistent profitability. Much of the good news (tariffs, contracts, hype) is likely priced into the stock at this point [191]. Going forward, upside vs. downside will largely depend on execution and external stability: if the favorable trade climate persists and Cliffs delivers on its cost cuts and contracts (all while maybe uncovering a “treasure” in its mines), CLF stock could have further room to run, rewarding those bullish on America’s steel renaissance [192] [193]. If, however, the winds shift – be it an economic cooldown or policy reversal – investors may find that this cyclical stock still has its share of swings left. In essence, Cleveland-Cliffs has become a fascinating case of a legacy industrial firm reinventing (and refinancing) itself in real-time. Both retail investors and casual market observers will find it worthwhile to keep an eye on upcoming developments, as this storied steelmaker-turned-resource-player navigates the next chapters of its evolving story.
Sources: Official Cleveland-Cliffs press releases and filings; Q3 2025 Earnings Call highlights; Reuters and Bloomberg news coverage on earnings and the share offering [194] [195]; analysis from TechStock² (ts2.tech) on Cliffs’ tariff windfall and rare-earth plans [196] [197]; commentary from Investing.com, Benzinga, and Motley Fool on stock moves and investor sentiment [198] [199]; and industry context from Reuters on U.S. Steel’s acquisition by Nippon Steel [200] [201] and trade policy impacts. All information is current as of October 30, 2025.
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