25 September 2025
21 mins read

Coffee Crisis Brewing: How a ‘Totally Avoidable’ Tariff is Spiking Prices

Coffee Crisis Brewing: How a ‘Totally Avoidable’ Tariff is Spiking Prices
  • Coffee Prices Soar: U.S. coffee prices have surged roughly 20% year-over-year, the biggest jump in decades [1]. In August 2025, roasted coffee at grocery stores cost 21.7% more than a year prior – the steepest rise since 1997 [2]. Industry data show instant coffee up ~20% as well, contributing to an overall 20.9% spike in retail coffee prices [3].
  • Tariffs Blamed for Spike: Analysts and experts point to new import tariffs as a primary driver of the price surge [4]. In August 2025, the Trump administration quintupled tariffs on coffee imports from Brazil – the top supplier of U.S. coffee – from 10% to 50%, while hitting other major exporters like Vietnam and Indonesia with 20% and 19% duties (others face a baseline 10%) [5]. These tariffs, applied to a product the U.S. cannot grow at scale, have drawn sharp criticism as “totally avoidable” costs on consumers [6] [7].
  • Global Shortages & Costs: The tariff shock hit just as the global coffee market was already tight. Droughts and frosts in Brazil – which accounts for ~37% of world coffee production [8] – and smaller harvests in other countries have crimped supply [9]. Coffee futures prices (the “C price”) spiked above $4 per pound in early 2025, an unprecedented level [10], and remain elevated. Shipping snarls and a shortage of food-grade shipping containers have added costs and delays for importers [11]. The result: a perfect storm of higher costs before beans even reach U.S. shores.
  • Cafés & Roasters Reeling: From Seattle to Baltimore, coffee shops and roasters are struggling with sticker shock on beans. Many describe the situation as the worst in memory. “We’re at a historical high,” says Emanuele Bizzarri, co-owner of Seattle’s Caffè Umbria, noting he’s “never seen anything like this” in decades in the business [12]. Importers like Ed Canty report paying $1 million+ in tariffs since the summer and sitting on tons of pricy beans that retailers now hesitate to buy [13]. One Baltimore roaster’s cost for Brazilian beans doubled from $2.20 to $4.30 per pound almost overnight [14], forcing a 10% price hike after months of trying to absorb the hit [15]. “What’s frustrating about now is this is totally avoidable,” says Stan Constantine, president of Baltimore Coffee and Tea Co., referring to the policy-driven nature of the price spike [16].
  • Passing Costs to Customers – Carefully: Coffee businesses face a dilemma: raise prices and risk losing customers, or swallow the costs and hurt their bottom line. “There’s not a day that goes by where I’m not scared of losing our customers because our sticker shock is so great,” admits Nani Ferreira-Mathews of Baltimore’s Thread Coffee, which saw its costs skyrocket [17] [18]. Many cafés have implemented modest price increases – e.g. one Baltimore shop bumped espresso drinks by $0.15 [19] and a roaster raised retail bean prices ~10% – while others tweak operations to save pennies. Even large chains are wary: “Both the tariff environment and coffee prices continue to be dynamic,” Starbucks’ CFO noted, saying the company is monitoring impacts even as its global sourcing helps buffer volatility [20] [21].
  • Scrambling for Alternatives: With Brazil’s beans suddenly exorbitant, roasters are reformulating blends. “Across the board, from big to small roasters, everybody uses Brazilian coffee – that’s like the world’s house espresso,” explains Peter Mark Ingalls, owner of Seattle’s Kuma Coffee [22]. Brazil’s beans are prized for the sweet, nutty flavor that anchors many blends [23], so the 50% tariff is especially painful [24] [25]. Some shops are substituting Indonesian or Central American coffees where possible [26] [27], but those supplies are limited and rising in price too as demand shifts [28]. Baltimore’s Good Neighbor café tried using an Indonesian drip coffee to replace Brazilian beans, but found it “not cheap” and different in flavor [29]. Roasters warn that finding the same quality beans without Brazil is tough – and even grinding the new beans can take more time due to quality variations [30].
  • “It’s a Mess” – Tough Choices: Industry veterans are openly lamenting the situation. “Not a good time to be in the coffee business right now… It’s a mess,” says Bizzarri of Caffè Umbria [31]. His company raised wholesale prices earlier in the year, but “if we would pass everything on to customers that we got increased, you’d have a latte over $20… nobody’s going to buy that” [32]. So businesses are eating much of the cost increase – at the expense of margins. Cooperative Coffees’ Canty notes that retailers simply “find it too expensive to buy” a lot of the tariff-laden inventory, leaving importers stuck with pricey stock [33]. Profit margins are shrinking across the board as players at each step absorb a share of the higher costs rather than alienate coffee drinkers with full sticker shock [34] [35].
  • Consumers Adapt (or Grumble): Coffee lovers are feeling the pinch in their wallets. A $5 latte is becoming the norm in some cities, and even plain drip coffee often exceeds $3-4 a cup. “The price of a coffee is no longer under, like, $5… It could be a $12 day just going to a cafe,” one Seattle local said, noting she’s cut back on café visits [36] [37]. Some loyal caffeine fiends won’t give up their habit but are finding creative workarounds: bringing their own flavored syrups to cafes to avoid upcharges [38], switching to smaller sizes, or brewing at home more often. Nationwide, coffee consumption remains robust – Americans collectively drink around 490 million cups per day [39] – but many say they’re now treating cafe coffee as an “occasional treat” rather than a daily routine as prices climb.
  • One Diner Won’t Budge: In a heartwarming exception to the trend, a Knoxville, Tennessee diner has famously refused to raise its coffee price despite rising costs. Nick & J’s Cafe still charges just $2.95 for a bottomless cup (with free refills) – the same price it’s held for years [40]. Owner Najwan Natour says he’s determined to keep coffee affordable for his patrons. “I’m not here to get rich. I’m here to make a living,” Natour explains. “If I have to eat the difference in profit for that one coffee… I’ll eat it,” he said, willing to absorb higher costs himself [41]. At that price, his cafe goes through huge volumes of coffee (several cases of beans a week), but Natour believes the goodwill and loyalty it builds with customers is worth it. His stance has drawn local praise as many big chains steadily hike prices. Natour’s philosophy: a cup of joe is a simple pleasure people deserve to enjoy, and he’d rather take a profit hit than charge a dime more for it.
  • Why Tariffs on Coffee? The coffee tariff is a side effect of a broader trade agenda. The Trump administration imposed sweeping tariffs on numerous imports in 2025, aiming to encourage buying American-made goods [42]. But critics note coffee is a poor target for tariffs, since virtually 99% of coffee is imported [43] – the U.S. simply cannot grow coffee at the scale (or climate) required to meet its caffeine needs [44]. Aside from a sliver of production in Hawaii, Puerto Rico and a few experimental California farms, America relies entirely on foreign green coffee beans [45]. For decades, green coffee imports were duty-free specifically to keep this essential commodity cheap [46]. That changed with the 2025 policy shift. “Tariffing a product we can’t grow at a large, commercial scale only makes it worse,” argues Rep. Don Bacon of Nebraska, one of the few Republicans objecting to the coffee tariffs [47]. Industry voices agree: William Murray, CEO of the National Coffee Association, warns that with coffee prices already at record highs from supply and demand factors, “further significant increases would be expected the longer tariffs remain” on coffee and even related inputs like packaging and equipment [48].
  • Backlash and Relief Efforts: The outcry over expensive coffee has spurred calls for action. Bipartisan lawmakers introduced the “No Coffee Tax Act” in September 2025, aiming to eliminate tariffs on coffee altogether [49] [50]. Co-sponsored by Rep. Bacon (R-NE) and Rep. Ro Khanna (D-CA), the bill would exempt coffee imports (green, roasted, decaf, etc.) from any tariffs imposed after January 19, 2025 [51]. “Families across America are feeling the cost of higher coffee prices, which are already up 21 percent… tariffing a product we can’t grow here only makes it worse,” Bacon said, vowing to rally support for lifting the coffee duties [52]. Khanna added, “If you drink coffee every morning, how can you not be mad about that?” referring to the price hikes tied to the tariff [53]. The coffee tariff debate is also sparking a bigger conversation about Congress reasserting its role in trade policy, which has largely been driven by executive orders [54].
  • White House Signals: Even the administration has shown signs of softening. In early September, President Trump issued an executive order suggesting that tariffs could be modified or lifted for products not produced domestically in sufficient quantity [55]. Coffee clearly fits that category, and Trump’s order indicated aligned trade partners might be exempted from the steep coffee duties [56]. However, details remain vague and no immediate tariff rollback has occurred yet [57]. Coffee industry figures are cautiously optimistic but need clarity. “Some relief could be on the way,” notes the Seattle Times, but until a concrete exemption or the new law takes effect, the tariff meter is still running [58]. Notably, any legislative fix would likely kick in after Jan. 19, 2026 (as proposed), so holiday-season coffee supplies may still bear the extra costs [59].
  • Beyond Beans – Wider Impact: The coffee tariff is also causing ripple effects beyond the beans themselves. Espresso machines and equipment have gotten pricier due to retaliatory tariffs on European metals and goods [60]. A Baltimore roastery co-founder, Matt Nierenberg, noted that high-end Italian espresso machines he sells to cafés now cost “thousands of dollars” more than last year [61]. He’s advising partners to upgrade sooner rather than later to avoid even higher costs if trade tensions persist [62]. And it’s not just coffee: one cafe owner lamented that “beans, syrups, cups – it’s almost doubled. Everybody’s complaining.” [63] Even specialty products like matcha tea are surging in price due to global shortages, adding to café owners’ headaches [64]. In short, running a coffee business in 2025 means fighting on multiple fronts: volatile ingredient costs, pricier equipment and supplies, and customers already stretched by inflation in other areas.
  • Comparison to Other Commodities: The coffee saga is part of a broader pattern of food and beverage inflation fueled by supply shocks and policy moves. Similar stories have played out with other imports – for example, tea and cocoa (also largely imported) haven’t seen tariffs but have faced climate-related supply issues, while domestically, items like orange juice and sugar saw price spikes this year due to weather and trade factors. What makes coffee unique is how directly a policy change – the tariff – caused a sudden price jolt on top of existing challenges. Economists note that when a commodity’s raw cost jumps, retail prices typically rise more gradually. But in coffee’s case, the sustained high commodity prices plus a hefty new tariff created an unusually fast pass-through to consumers [65] [66]. A USDA analysis suggests that eventually such cost increases do trickle down nearly cent-for-cent to consumer prices [67], which appears to be happening now. The lesson? In a globalized market for essentials like coffee, trade policy and climate can hit your wallet just as hard as classic inflation.

How We Got Here: A Perfect Storm of Costs

The confluence of tariffs, bad weather, and supply-chain woes set the stage for the current coffee cost crisis. By mid-2025, global coffee benchmark prices were already climbing due to poor harvests. Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer, suffered weather setbacks – from drought that stressed crops to an unexpected frost – curbing output [68] [69]. Other key producers like Vietnam and Central America also saw lower yields, meaning fewer beans available worldwide [70]. This tightening supply drove up the international price for green coffee beans dramatically (arabica futures up ~50% on the year) [71].

On top of that came the U.S. tariff policy. In an effort to pressure trading partners and boost U.S. agriculture, the administration slapped tariffs on a range of imports – including coffee, despite no meaningful domestic coffee industry to protect [72]. Starting August 6, 2025, U.S. importers bringing in coffee from certain countries suddenly owed massive duties. Brazil, which historically supplied about one-third of America’s coffee [73] [74], was hit with a punishing 50% tariff overnight. Major suppliers like Vietnam (the #2 global coffee exporter) and Indonesia also saw new tariffs around 20% [75]. Even countries not specifically targeted still face at least a 10% import tax on coffee now [76].

For decades prior, U.S. coffee importers enjoyed zero or minimal tariffs on raw coffee, part of a long-standing policy to keep American coffee drinkers’ prices low [77]. The sudden imposition of tariffs blew up the cost structure that roasters and brokers had budgeted for. “Contracts are often set a year or two in advance – and now they’re subject to changing duties,” explains Bizzarri of Caffè Umbria, who says the unpredictable fees make it “hard to budget” for coffee orders [78]. His importer now sends a bill from U.S. Customs showing a “big chunk of money” due on every Brazilian coffee shipment [79].

Combine these tariff costs with the already high baseline price of coffee, and the effect was dramatic. U.S. green coffee buyers faced immediate choices: absorb the higher cost and earn less profit, raise their own prices and risk losing business, or seek other coffee origins not penalized by tariffs [80]. In practice, many are doing all three – absorbing some costs, hiking some prices, and scrambling to source beans from alternate countries.

“Totally Avoidable” vs. Harsh Reality

Within the coffee industry, frustration is palpable because this crisis is seen as self-inflicted. Unlike a frost or a pandemic – forces outside anyone’s control – a tariff is a policy decision made in Washington. “This is totally avoidable,” says Baltimore roaster Stan Constantine, whose family business has bought coffee from Brazil for generations [81]. He notes that in early 2025, importing Brazilian beans cost him about $2.20 per pound – but by fall, after tariffs, it shot up to $4.30 [82]. Containers of Brazilian coffee literally sat off the country’s coast that he and other buyers “can no longer afford” to bring in due to the added duty [83]. Constantine held off as long as possible, but ultimately had to raise his retail prices ~10% to stay afloat [84]. He’s been upfront with customers about why: “We’re not gouging anybody, we’re simply trying to stay in business,” he tells them [85].

That sense of an unforced error is echoed by import cooperatives and specialty roasters. Ed Canty, general manager of Cooperative Coffees (which imports beans for dozens of indie roasters), said they saw the storm coming early in 2025 when futures prices climbed on Brazil’s drought news [86]. But the tariffs piled on: “We saw the highest [coffee] market in 30 years… Then we started getting into tariffs,” Canty recounted [87]. Since June, his cooperative has paid about $1,000,000 in tariffs and still has 700,000 lbs of green coffee sitting in inventory [88]. Why unsold? U.S. coffee roasters look at those beans’ post-tariff price and balk – it’s just too expensive for them to buy and turn a profit after roasting [89]. In other words, the tariff is pricing some coffee out of the market entirely.

The National Coffee Association, representing the industry at large, has condemned the tariffs as counter-productive. NCA President/CEO Bill Murray noted that coffee prices were already at “record highs” from weather and demand factors, and warned that keeping tariffs in place will only push consumer prices higher the longer it goes on [90]. Even if the exact pass-through is hard to predict, the consensus is American consumers are paying the price for a policy that yields little obvious benefit (since there’s no domestic coffee industry to protect beyond a handful of niche growers [91]).

Cafés on the Front Lines: Coping and Innovating

For the thousands of neighborhood cafés, coffee carts, and roaster-retailers across the country, the price crunch is an existential test. Coffee is often a razor-thin margin business – that $4 latte has to cover not just beans, but milk, cups, rent, labor, insurance, etc. Independent shop owners are now making tough calculations about how much of the increased bean cost they can absorb and how much must be passed to customers.

Many have raised prices in small increments to avoid shocking customers. In Baltimore, the café Good Neighbor bumped the price of an espresso by only 15 cents so far [92]. They’ve also added nominal upcharges to specialty syrups and certain menu items to reflect higher ingredient costs [93]. Manager Rida Shahbaz says they’re reviewing the menu line-by-line to see what can bear a price increase without driving people away [94]. “Some of our prices are being absorbed by our roasters,” adds Good Neighbor’s owner Shawn Chopra, noting that the wholesale suppliers themselves have tried not to fully pass along their cost surge. “But we’ve definitely had to account for price changes on all things,” from beans to flavorings [95].

Another Baltimore coffee entrepreneur, Ayda Abraham, who owns Adee’s Coffee Roasters, already hiked her prices once in mid-summer and is “nervous about raising it again.” [96] She actually ran out of Brazilian beans back in January when tariffs loomed, and reformulated her blends with alternatives like Sumatra (Indonesia), Guatemala, and El Salvador origins [97]. But now those too are rising in price as everyone else seeks substitutes. Abraham observes it’s not just coffee itself – “Beans, syrups, cups, it’s almost doubled. Everybody’s complaining.” [98] Even the cost of importing matcha (green tea powder) from Japan is climbing due to a poor harvest, she notes, illustrating how pervasive the supply challenges are [99].

In Seattle – a city synonymous with coffee culture – owners echo similar struggles. Seattle’s high cost of doing business compounds the problem. “Real estate is very expensive… labor is super expensive,” notes Mehmet Gultekin, owner of The Seattle Grind café, explaining how thin the margin for error is in his city [100] [101]. Gultekin has tried to keep his prices on drinks in the $5–$6 range (relatively low for Seattle) to stay competitive [102], even as he juggles high rent and a rising minimum wage. He runs a lean operation – essentially a small kiosk with minimal staff – to cut costs [103]. Still, he calls running a coffee shop in 2025 “still expensive… but [it’s] better than Uber,” joking that despite the challenges, he prefers this over gig work [104].

Roasters who supply cafes are also adapting in novel ways. Peter Ingalls of Kuma Coffee primarily sells beans wholesale and online, which gives him slightly more flexibility than a brick-and-mortar café [105]. He travels directly to source beans from farms and cooperatives in countries like Guatemala, Mexico, Kenya and Ethiopia [106]. This direct trade model often means paying farmers well above commodity price – this year he’s shelling out $3.50 to $4.00 per pound for top-quality microlot coffees [107]. Ingalls believes paying small farmers more is “the best path forward” for sustainable supply [108], but even he is feeling the squeeze as general coffee costs “are going way up.” [109] Some types of beans that used to be, say, $3 per pound are now $6 for an acceptable quality [110]. Ingalls blames a mix of factors: “There’s not much around, so everything costs a lot more… [and] the 50% tariff on Brazil” removing that affordable anchor bean from the market [111]. He calls Brazilian coffee “the world’s house espresso” because its flavor profile is so universally used in blends [112]. Losing easy access to it forces roasters to adjust recipes and budgets on the fly.

Despite all this, café owners are trying to maintain a sense of normalcy for customers. Many have posted polite signs or social media notes explaining small price increases. They emphasize quality and ethical sourcing to justify costs, hoping customers stick with them. “I don’t know how any of us are going to survive this,” admits Thread Coffee’s Ferreira-Mathews, who considered buying cheaper, lower-grade beans as a last resort, though it clashes with her mission [113]. Ultimately, she and her partner resolved to stay the course on fair trade sourcing: “I’d rather lose my business doing the right thing than save it doing the wrong thing,” she says, underscoring the values at stake [114].

Customers Feeling the Jolt

For consumers, the jump in coffee prices is being felt in multiple ways. Grocery store coffee – from instant jars to bags of whole bean – is up roughly 20%, meaning that morning cup at home is noticeably pricier than last year [115]. But it’s the café/coffee shop prices that tend to grab attention, since they were already high in many cities. A latte that used to cost $4.50 might now be $5 or more. Add an extra shot or a flavored syrup and you’re easily pushing $6-$7 for a single drink.

In Seattle, long-time coffee drinkers marvel (and wince) at how even plain drip coffee now can cost $4-plus after tax. “It used to be an everyday ritual… but with these prices really climbing, I take a double take,” says one 24-year-old Seattle resident, who has cut back on café visits [116]. Coffee remains a cherished part of the culture – “I don’t want to give it up entirely,” she says – but she now finds ways to economize, like buying a basic drip instead of a fancy latte, or using flavor syrups she carries with her rather than paying extra at the cafe [117]. In surveys, many consumers say they haven’t quit coffee (most won’t ever!) but they are adjusting: brewing more at home, downgrading size (grande to tall), or treating a café beverage as an occasional indulgence.

Interestingly, not everyone is raising prices. We saw the example of Nick & J’s Cafe in Knoxville, where the owner is eating the cost to keep coffee $2.95 for a bottomless cup [118]. Natour, the owner, has become a minor local legend for this stance. “I’m not here to get rich. I’m here to make a living… If I have to eat the difference in profit for that one coffee knowing it’s going to [keep customers happy], I’ll do it,” he says of his decision [119]. His cafe can go through four cases of coffee in a short time due to the low price and free refills – a volume that would make many accountants cringe – but he hopes customers will order food or just appreciate the gesture and keep coming back. Natour’s approach might not be feasible for every business, but it illustrates the lengths some are going to avoid alienating coffee lovers.

Elsewhere, some big players have implemented stealthy ways to manage increased costs. Starbucks raised menu prices in 2022 and 2023 and has indicated it might do so again if input costs stay high, though the company also uses financial hedging and long-term contracts to buffer short-term price swings. Its CFO noted that Starbucks sources from over 30 countries and over 450,000 farmers, which helps “reduce price volatility” and secure supply [120]. In other words, a giant like Starbucks can negotiate and plan around tariffs more easily than a small roaster can. Still, even Starbucks admitted that tariffs and coffee prices create a “dynamic” situation they are watching closely [121]. Industry watchers suspect if wholesale coffee stays expensive into next year, the major chains will adjust their prices upward again, albeit quietly (perhaps via shrinkflation or smaller cup sizes).

Is Relief in Sight?

Coffee drinkers and café owners alike are asking the million-dollar question: When will coffee prices come back down? The answer depends on a few moving targets:

  • Tariff Removal: The fastest way to shave off a big chunk of the recent increase would be to remove or reduce the tariffs on imported coffee. The bipartisan bill in Congress (dubbed the No Coffee Tax Act) seeks to do exactly that [122]. If passed, it would eliminate any tariffs imposed after January 19, 2025 on coffee beans and related products [123]. Lawmakers pushing it hope to attach it to a larger trade or budget package for quick approval, arguing that it’s a commonsense, non-controversial fix. However, its fate is not yet certain – trade policy can be politically tricky, and it’s unclear if congressional leadership or the White House will prioritize a coffee tariff repeal in time. The Washington Post first reported on this legislative effort, and public pressure is building as more people learn that their coffee cost increases are tied to tariff policy [124].
  • Executive Action: President Trump’s recent executive order hinting at exemptions for products the U.S. can’t produce offers a ray of hope [125]. Coffee clearly qualifies, and some optimists think the administration may quietly roll back the coffee tariff (at least for friendly supplier nations like Brazil, Colombia, etc.) to quell the backlash. “Aligned partners” could be a term to allow tariff-free coffee from countries that cooperate on other trade issues [126]. Yet as of now, the 50% Brazil tariff and others remain in force; no timeline was given for implementing the EO’s guidance [127]. Businesses are wary – they can’t set prices based on maybe or soon. As one roaster put it, “it’s difficult to predict exactly” how and when relief will come [128]. Until something concrete happens, they must assume the tariffs (and high costs) persist.
  • Global Coffee Supply: Nature may provide some relief or more pain. If Brazil’s next coffee crop rebounds strongly (good weather, no frost), the increased supply could lower world prices somewhat. Conversely, another bad harvest or climate surprise could keep prices high or send them higher. The International Coffee Organization noted that after a steep run-up, prices in late 2025 showed slight easing as some growing regions recovered [129]. But it’s a fragile equilibrium. Notably, global coffee demand is still rising – consumption is growing, especially in emerging markets. So even a normal crop year may only stabilize prices rather than bring a big drop.
  • Dollar and Inflation: The strength of the U.S. dollar also affects coffee import costs. Earlier in 2025, a weaker dollar made imports pricier; recently a stronger dollar has helped soften commodity costs in dollar terms [130]. General inflation trends (energy, wages, etc.) will influence the cost of running a coffee business too. If overall inflation cools, coffee shops might catch a break on things like milk, pastries, or labor costs, which could mitigate the need for further coffee price hikes.

For now, industry experts advise that coffee prices will likely stay elevated into 2026. “No immediate relief for coffee buyers,” as Daily Coffee News concluded, given the $4+ per pound coffee futures and ongoing tariff burden [131] [132]. The hope is that by mid-2026, either the tariffs will be lifted or global production will increase (or both), gradually filtering down to retail prices. But any easing might be marginal at first – it could simply slow the increase rather than actually reduce prices to pre-2025 levels.

A Nation of Coffee Drinkers Braces Itself

In a country where 3 in 4 adults drink coffee regularly and the beverage is a daily staple for millions, the tariff-fueled price spike has become a kitchen-table issue. It’s not quite at the level of gas prices in political significance, but it’s getting there – especially in coffee-centric communities. From Seattle’s hip cafes to Baltimore’s neighborhood coffee roasters to Midwestern diners and corner Starbucks everywhere, people are buzzing about the cost of their caffeine fix.

The situation has even prompted comparisons to the 1970s, when a Brazilian frost sent coffee prices soaring and changed American coffee culture (it helped usher in cheaper Robusta beans and bitter brew, which partly gave rise to the revolution in specialty coffee later). This time, the quality of coffee hasn’t dropped – but the affordability has, and that could alter habits if it persists. Will we see a resurgence of home coffee brewing or more budget coffee brands? Or will consumers grudgingly pay extra for their lattes and cold brews, considering it an inflation era reality?

For now, the story continues to unfold. Lawmakers will debate the merits of a coffee tariff in a country that doesn’t grow coffee. Cafés will continue to experiment with pricing, sourcing, and cost-saving measures to survive what one owner bluntly called “a mess” [133]. And coffee drinkers will adapt in ways big and small – but likely not give up their beloved java. As one coffee aficionado quipped on social media, “I’ll cut other luxuries, but you’ll have to pry the coffee mug from my hands.”

Bottom line: The spike in coffee prices may have been “totally avoidable” [134], but it’s here now, brewing troubles for many. Until tariffs are lifted or global supply catches up, that morning cup of joe will come with a stronger kick – not just of caffeine, but of cost.

Sources:

  • Daily Coffee News – “U.S. Coffee Prices Soar at the Supermarket” (Nick Brown, Sep. 15, 2025) [135] [136]
  • The Baltimore Banner – “‘Totally avoidable’ spike in coffee prices sends Baltimore shops reeling” (Matti Gellman, Sep. 24, 2025) [137] [138]
  • Seattle Times via Spokesman-Review – “Seattle, a coffee haven, is watching java prices spike. Why?” (Megan U. Boyanton, Sep. 22, 2025) [139] [140]
  • Reuters – “US lawmakers to introduce bipartisan bill to axe tariffs on coffee” (Sept. 19, 2025) [141] [142]
  • Yahoo News/WATE – “Knoxville diner won’t charge more for coffee despite rising cost” (Sep. 24, 2025) [143]
  • Additional reporting from local cafe owners and industry experts in Baltimore and Seattle [144] [145], and data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and National Coffee Association [146] [147].

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