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Commerzbank Q3 2025: Profit Misses Forecasts as Tax Bill Bites, But NII Outlook Rises and 9‑Month Operating Result Hits Record Amid UniCredit Pressure
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Commerzbank Q3 2025: Profit Misses Forecasts as Tax Bill Bites, But NII Outlook Rises and 9‑Month Operating Result Hits Record Amid UniCredit Pressure

by
7 November 2025

FRANKFURT — November 7, 2025. Commerzbank’s third‑quarter headline profit came in weaker than expected, but the bank raised its 2025 net interest income (NII) guidance and posted a record operating result for the first nine months—underlining CEO Bettina Orlopp’s push to keep the lender independent as Italy’s UniCredit builds its stake. [1]

What happened in Q3 2025

Commerzbank reported €591 million in net profit for the quarter ended Sept. 30, down 7.9% year on year and below a €659 million consensus, largely because the effective tax rate jumped to 36% from 22% a year earlier and operating costs rose around 5%. Shares fell more than 3% after the release. [2]

Behind that accounting drag, operating performance remained robust. The operating result rose 18% year on year to €1.047 billion in Q3, helping lift the nine‑month operating result to a record €3.442 billion (up 21%). Nine‑month revenues climbed 11% to €9.0 billion, with Q3 revenues at €2.9 billion; net commission income increased 7% in Q3 to €985 million, while NII was stable at roughly €2.0 billion in the quarter and €6.2 billion year‑to‑date. [3]

Guidance and shareholder returns

Management confirmed its 2025 profit target of about €2.9 billionbefore restructuring costs (around €2.5 billion after), and raised the 2025 NII outlook to ~€8.2 billion from ~€8.0 billion. The capital return plan continues: a €1 billion buyback launched on Sept. 25 and the bank has applied for an additional buyback of up to €600 million, subject to regulatory approvals and the German Finance Agency. [4]

Commerzbank ended the period with a CET1 ratio of 14.7%, a cost‑income ratio of 56% after nine months (better than the ~57% full‑year target), and a net RoTE of 10% before restructuring expenses. The bank reiterated that 2025 results remain sensitive to developments related to Russia and legal risks in mBank’s foreign‑currency mortgage portfolio. [5]

Under the hood: where growth is (and isn’t)

  • Corporate clients: Average loan volumes rose 13% year on year to €113 billion, contributing to higher interest income and a stronger operating contribution. [6]
  • Retail/SME at home: Loan volumes were broadly flat around €125 billion; deposits averaged €176 billion in Q3. That mix helped NII resilience but points to a slower growth lane on the domestic retail side. WirtschaftsWoche captured this tension as a “hidden growth problem”—strong earnings today, but a need to convert that into sustained volume growth beyond rate tailwinds. [7]

Orlopp’s record run meets first earnings miss

The FAZ noted that Q3 marked the first time under CEO Bettina Orlopp that Commerzbank missed profit expectations—despite a powerful start to the year and a nine‑month net result of €1.9 billion. The quarterly shortfall was driven primarily by the higher tax rate rather than weakening operations. [8]

Orlopp, who became CEO in October 2024 after serving as CFO, has pushed efficiency and digitisation while keeping discipline on risk. BILD highlighted the bank’s “best nine‑month result ever” under her tenure and the drive for savings, including previously announced staffing measures. [9]

UniCredit’s creeping stake—and the independence question

The backdrop to every Commerzbank print in 2025 is UniCredit’s accumulation of shares. The Italian bank has built a stake of roughly 26% and received ECB clearance to go up to 29.9%; crossing 30% would trigger a mandatory takeover bid under German rules. Berlin has signalled coolness toward a deal, and Commerzbank’s board and works council have emphasised a stand‑alone strategy. [10]

Strategy check: “Momentum” targets to 2028

Commerzbank’s “Momentum” plan targets by 2028 a ~50% cost‑income ratio, ~15% net RoTE, and ~100% payout of net profit (dividends plus buybacks), contingent on capital and regulatory conditions. Management says the bank is tracking ahead of plan on efficiency and fee growth. The risk result stayed moderate (–€515 million for the first nine months) with an NPE ratio of 1.0%. [11]

Key numbers at a glance

  • Q3 2025 net profit:€591m (–7.9% YoY) vs consensus €659m; tax rate 36% (22% a year ago). [12]
  • Q3 operating result:€1.047bn; 9M operating result:€3.442bn (record; +21% YoY). [13]
  • 2025 NII guidance:~€8.2bn (raised from ~€8.0bn). [14]
  • Capital & efficiency:CET1 14.7%; C/I 56% after nine months; Net RoTE 10% (pre‑restructuring). [15]
  • Shareholder returns:€1bn buyback in market; up to €600m additional buyback application filed. [16]

Why it matters today (Nov. 7)

For markets, the mild miss and higher tax profile are near‑term noise; the raised NII and record operating momentum are the signal. For strategy, the combination of organic growth (notably in corporate lending), capital returns, and political resistance to a cross‑border takeover will be read as a fresh argument for keeping Commerzbank independent—exactly what Orlopp has been telegraphing. [17]

What to watch next

  1. Rate path & NII sensitivity: If euro‑area rates fall faster than expected, can higher fee income and lending volumes offset NII pressure? [18]
  2. Regulatory outcomes: Progress on approvals connected to the additional €600m buyback and any changes in UniCredit’s 29.9% cap strategy. [19]
  3. mBank legacy risks: Trajectory of FX‑mortgage litigation costs and provisioning. [20]
  4. Execution on “Momentum”: Delivery toward C/I ~50% and RoTE ~15% by 2028, including ongoing personnel measures. [21]

Context & reporting notes for Nov. 7, 2025

  • FAZ emphasised that Q3 was the first expectations miss under Orlopp, even as year‑to‑date profit holds steady. [22]
  • BILD framed Orlopp as the “billion‑maker,” underlining the record nine‑month performance and cost discipline since her promotion in October 2024. [23]
  • Commerzbank’s own release details the record 9M operating result, higher NII outlook, buybacks, and capital and risk metrics cited above. [24]
  • Reuters and the WSJ captured the market reaction, miss vs consensus, and the raised NII guidance. [25]
  • The UniCredit stake‑building remains the strategic overhang, with ECB approval to 29.9% and Berlin’s persistent scepticism about a deal. [26]

This article was prepared for publication on November 7, 2025, and synthesises the bank’s Q3 2025 figures, official guidance, and same‑day/overnight reporting from major outlets and the company.

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References

1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.commerzbank.de, 4. www.commerzbank.de, 5. www.commerzbank.de, 6. www.commerzbank.de, 7. www.commerzbank.de, 8. www.faz.net, 9. www.bild.de, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.commerzbank.de, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.commerzbank.de, 14. www.wsj.com, 15. www.commerzbank.de, 16. www.commerzbank.de, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.wsj.com, 19. www.commerzbank.de, 20. www.commerzbank.de, 21. www.commerzbank.de, 22. www.faz.net, 23. www.bild.de, 24. www.commerzbank.de, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.ft.com

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