- Oil surges on geopolitics: Iraq’s oil ministry says crude began flowing from Kurdistan to Turkey for the first time in 2½ years (roughly 180–190k barrels/day) [1]. In Nigeria, the oil workers’ union ordered crude/gas valve cuts to the new Dangote refinery amid a labor dispute [2]. Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries and fuel exports helped lift Brent above $70/barrel [3]. OPEC+ meeting notes that members will boost output modestly from October (adding ~137k bpd) to regain market share [4]. Analysts say the focus remains on Russia–Ukraine tensions: “drone attacks… are beginning to add up,” noted oil strategist John Kilduff [5], even as Rystad’s Jorge Leon cautioned that OPEC+ is prioritizing “market share even if it risks softer prices” [6]. Natural gas has been relatively calm: European storage is high after a mild summer [7], but Ukraine warns it must still buy $0.5–1.0 billion in gas to reach winter targets [8].
- Precious metals rally: Gold climbed to all-time highs on Sep. 23 amid safe-haven demand and expectations of more U.S. rate cuts [9] [10]. Silver and platinum also surged (silver near 14-year highs) [11]. Fed Chair Powell’s cautious tone didn’t damp gold’s rally – futures jumped 1–2% to new peaks as traders price in October/December rate cuts [12] [13]. Kitco’s Jim Wyckoff noted “a continued flow of safe-haven demand amid geopolitical matters” alongside Fed easing [14]. Looking ahead, forecasts are bullish: Deutsche Bank sees gold reaching $4,000/oz by 2026 as lower rates reduce holding costs [15]. Copper also firmed: supply concerns from Indonesia’s disrupted Grasberg mine prompted Goldman Sachs to slash its 2025–26 output estimates [16] [17] and Citi to raise near-term price forecasts to ~$10,500–12,000/ton [18]. Funds remain cautious on base metals after earlier tariff scares [19] [20].
- Grains and oilseeds abundant: U.S. farmers brace for a record corn crop, with USDA pegging 2025 production at ~16.8 billion bushels (7-year high stocks) [21]. Soybean acreage is also large, though U.S. exports are depressed by trade friction with China [22] [23]. Ukraine projects its 2025 wheat and corn harvest may exceed forecasts if weather remains favorable [24], potentially matching last year’s ~56 million tonnes. However, EU wheat output is likely to drop due to dry summer weather [25]. In South America, Brazilian grain prices eased as harvests picked up. Overall, the UN’s FAO reports world cereal output is set to hit a record in 2025 [26], keeping international grain prices below their 2022 peaks despite strong demand.
- Soft commodities mixed: Brazil’s coffee sector faces turmoil. U.S. slapped a 50% tariff on Brazilian imports in August, causing exports to the U.S. to drop ~46% in August and a further 20% into mid-Sep [27]. Exporters warn shipments will continue falling if tariffs persist [28]. Brazilian roasters (e.g. 3 Corações, Melitta) have raised retail prices ~7–15% as raw arabica prices surge (up 20% YTD, up 70% last year) on crop woes and tariffs [29]. On cotton, India is preparing to buy a record cotton crop from farmers as domestic prices are pressured by cheap imports and weak demand (U.S. tariffs on textiles curb exports) [30] [31]. Global sugar markets remain oversupplied: large Brazilian harvests have pushed world sugar prices down, and India is likely to miss its 1 mt export quota (only ~775k t sold vs. 1 mt ceiling) [32]. Nonetheless FAO notes sugar prices ticked up 0.2% in August as demand strengthened [33]. Vegetable oil prices hit 3-year highs on tightening supplies (e.g. Indonesia’s new palm-biodiesel mandate) [34].
- Markets outlook: Analysts stress that central bank policy will remain key. The Fed’s late-September minutes and the upcoming U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) report are eyed for inflation signals that could influence gold and industrial metals [35] [36]. With Fed cuts expected, precious metals may stay firm while energy and bulk commodities respond to shifting supply and demand. For example, Goldman sees copper moving into deficit and reaching $12,000/ton over 6–12 months [37], while record global grain output should keep most food commodity prices restrained [38]. In sum, commodities are trading on geopolitical news (war, labor disputes, tariffs) as much as on traditional seasonal and demand factors, suggesting volatility ahead.
Sources: Recent Reuters market reports and analysis [39] [40] [41] [42] [43] [44] [45] [46] [47], incorporating expert comments and forecasts.
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.reuters.com, 33. www.reuters.com, 34. www.reuters.com, 35. www.reuters.com, 36. www.reuters.com, 37. www.reuters.com, 38. www.reuters.com, 39. www.reuters.com, 40. www.reuters.com, 41. www.reuters.com, 42. www.reuters.com, 43. www.reuters.com, 44. www.reuters.com, 45. www.reuters.com, 46. www.reuters.com, 47. www.reuters.com
