- Oil falls on supply hopes: Brent and WTI fell ~1–2% on Sept 29–30 amid news of rising supply (Kurdistan resuming exports, OPEC+ set to hike output ~137 kb/d) [1] [2]. Saudi Arabia, however, signaled modestly higher official November crude prices to Asia (up ~$0.30–0.60/bbl) to track regional benchmarks [3] [4]. An unexpected 0.6 million-barrel draw in U.S. inventories (Sept 24) and Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil hubs had briefly sent prices to 7-week highs [5] [6], but gains reversed on oversupply worries. Analysts at ANZ noted a looming U.S. government shutdown as a demand risk factor [7].
- Fuel and gas: Geopolitical skirmishes also roiled fuel markets. Occupied Crimea imposed rationing (30 L per vehicle) and price freezes after Ukrainian drone attacks crippled local refineries, while Moscow capped gasoline exports and prepared diesel curbs [8] [9]. In natural gas, abundant LNG inflows have filled European storage (~90% full by Oct), muting winter scarcity concerns [10]. U.S. gas prices held moderate as warm forecasts and full storages eased demand.
- Precious metals surge: Gold hit fresh highs (~$3,778/oz by Sept 26) on bets the Fed will cut rates, a weaker dollar and global uncertainty [11] [12]. Spot gold has climbed ~13% over the past quarter [13]. Silver (~$46.40/oz) and platinum (~$1,568/oz) reached multi-year highs in late Sept [14], as investors rotated into “cheaper” safe-havens while Fed Chair Powell’s dovish tone lingered. “Nothing from this data [PCE inflation] will prevent the Fed from…another cautious rate cut in October,” said metals trader Tai Wong [15], supporting bullion’s rally. (Goldman Sachs now targets ~$2,900 by 2026 [16].)
- Industrial metals tight: Copper jumped on supply worries. A Sept 8 mudslide at Freeport’s Grasberg mine (Indonesia) prompted Goldman Sachs to slash its copper output forecasts for 2025–26 [17]. The bank now sees a slight global copper deficit and forecasts LME copper ~$10,200–$10,500/t near-term [18]. Citi likewise raised near-term copper forecasts (to ~$10,500/Q4) and foresees a potential rally to $12,000–$14,000/t over 6–12 months [19]. (Goldman still expects only ~0.2% mine growth in 2025, citing Grasberg losses [20].) Other base metals rose on the risk tone: nickel and zinc saw support from China demand, while palladium & platinum gained amid broad safe-haven flows [21].
- Grains & oilseeds slip: U.S. grain futures were mixed-to-lower on Sept 29. Chicago December corn (~$4.21/bu) and Nov soybeans (~$10.10/bu) edged down as warm, dry weather sped Midwestern harvests [22]. Traders are wary ahead of USDA’s Sept 30 reports. The USDA projects a record U.S. corn crop (~16.8 bln bu) with very large ending stocks [23], and only slight changes in wheat output – leading analysts like StoneX’s Arlan Suderman to warn of surprises in quarterly stocks data [24]. “The trade expects very modest reductions in wheat production…stocks reports are where USDA is known for surprises,” Suderman noted [25]. U.S. winter wheat futures also rose modestly, aided by global concerns over dry Southern Hemisphere harvests (Argentina, Australia) even as EU/Russia supplies remain ample [26] [27].
- Soybean squeeze: U.S. soybean prices stayed under pressure. A Reuters report showed Chinese buyers snapping up Argentine soybeans after Argentina cut export taxes [28], booking ~10–15 Panamax cargoes for Nov delivery. One trader observed that China’s deals “clearly means that China doesn’t need U.S. beans” this harvest [29]. American Soybean Association president Caleb Ragland lamented, “Every time China turns to South America instead of the U.S.,…our farm families here at home lose out” [30]. Chicago soy futures sank to multi-year lows this week as Latin American supplies grab market share [31] [32].
- Coffee and other softs: Arabica coffee on the ICE surged toward a lifetime high (~$4.29/lb) by mid-September [33]. U.S. tariffs (50%) on Brazilian coffee and a dry Brazilian crop drove the rally: one broker noted U.S. roasters were “scrambling for supplies” after shipments plunged [34]. Speculative funds piled in as domestic roasters and growers “were forced to lift hedges,” trading desk reports said [35]. StoneX’s Tomas Araujo attributed most of the spike to “tariffs and the resulting disruption on the supply chain” [36]. At the same time, a Reuters poll of analysts saw coffee prices eventually retreating: median forecasts expect arabica to fall ~30% to ~$2.95/lb by end-2025 as demand softens and Brazil’s next crop recovers [37].
- Other critical commodities: In lithium and rare-earths, analysts track EV-driven demand. China’s Antaike agency expects the global lithium oversupply to roughly halve in 2025 (to ~80,000 t LCE) as high-cost mines shutter [38], which should help underpin prices. China also raised quotas on rare-earth magnet exports, boosting shipments 10.2% in August from July [39]. Meanwhile in cotton, India’s government plans record state procurements (buying the entire harvest) as domestic prices sag under cheap imports and weak textile demand [40] [41]. The government raised its cotton support price ~8% to 8,110 rupees/100 kg, but market rates remain well below, forcing heavy stockpiles.
Key analysts’ views & forecasts: A range of experts highlighted the mixed outlook. Jay Pelosky (TPW Advisory) argued on Sept 29 that traditional bearish oil forecasts are overstated – OPEC+ may under-deliver on planned hikes, Ukraine strikes have cut 25% of Russia’s refining capacity, and China’s crude stockpiling could soak up surplus [42] [43]. In metals, Goldman Sachs now predicts copper returning to long-term bull territory (~$10,750/t by 2027) after revising down 2025-26 supply [44]. Citi sees a 2026 copper deficit and even higher prices ($12,000+) if demand holds [45]. For oil, the U.S. EIA has cut its price outlook – forecasting Brent ~$51/bbl in 2026 (well below current ~$70) as inventories rebuild [46] – though many traders remain skeptical given the prevailing risk-on tone.
Globally, central bank policy is key. Fed rate-cut expectations (over 90% odds of an Oct cut) continue to buoy precious metals [47] and commodities overall. However, as Societe Generale and others warn, any U.S.-China trade flare-up or political impasse at home (shutdown fears) could quickly damp commodity demand. For now, markets brace for the next catalysts – October OPEC+ meeting, USDA reports (Sept 30), and key economic data – all of which will test whether these trends sustain into the short term [48] [49].
Sources: Market data and analysis from Reuters, USDA/FAO reports, and industry experts (see citations). Relevant commentary cited throughout.
References
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