Commodities Rollercoaster: Oil Rockets & Gold Smashes Records as Trade & Weather Woes Hit Agriculture (Sept 24

Oil surges: Brent crude jumped ~2.5% to ~$69 on Sept 24, its highest in 7 weeks, after a surprise plunge in U.S. inventories and renewed supply worries (Iraq, Venezuela, Russia) ^[1] ^[2]. By Sept 25, Brent settled ~$68.80 after profit-taking and forecasts of rising output from Iraqi Kurdistan ^[3] ^[4]. Analysts note a “risk-off market” as the Fed-driven stock slump curbs oil gains ^[5].
Natural gas deals: Turkey signed a 20-year deal to buy U.S. LNG (about 4 bcm/year) from Mercuria, part of a flurry of new gas contracts as Ankara moves away from Russia. This comes amid Europe’s push to ban Russian pipeline/LNG imports ahead of schedule, reflecting geopolitical shifts in energy..
Renewables drama: Danish wind giant Ørsted resumed construction on its U.S. Revolution Wind farm after a court lifted a federal stop-work order ^[6]. The project (80% complete) had been stalled by the Trump administration’s attempt to halt offshore wind – underscoring political headwinds in the energy transition ^[7] ^[8].
Precious metals rally: Gold climbed to an all-time high (~$3,790/oz on Sept 23) on safe-haven buying, then eased to ~$3,730 on Sept 24 as the dollar firmed and investors waited on Fed signals ^[9] ^[10]. Platinum hit an 11-year peak; silver and palladium also rose to multi-year highs ^[11] ^[12]. Analysts attribute the rally to expectations of U.S. rate cuts, geopolitical jitters, and ETF inflows ^[13] ^[14].
Copper surge: Copper prices spiked ~3–4% on Sept 24 after Freeport-McMoRan declared force majeure at its Indonesian Grasberg mine ^[15]. Jefferies said the output cut was “larger than expected” and will tighten the market ^[16]. LME copper hit a 15-month high amid the supply shock. (Nickel, aluminum and other base metals saw smaller moves, with aluminum under pressure from U.S. tariffs.)
Coffee and softs: New York arabica coffee neared record highs (~$4.24/lb), driven by U.S. import tariffs on Brazilian beans and a hot, dry Brazilian season ^[17] ^[18]. StoneX broker Tomas Araujo noted “most of this recent price rally” is due to tariffs disrupting supply ^[19]. Sugar markets saw mixed signals: India’s government announced ample sugar stocks and plans to resume exports this season ^[20], while European sugar was weak on cheap Ukrainian imports (though EU curbs on Ukraine may tighten supply) ^[21] ^[22]. Cotton and cocoa were relatively rangebound.
Grains & livestock: Soybean markets are under pressure as China, the top buyer, has made no new U.S. purchases. China’s commerce ministry said the U.S. must lift “unreasonable tariffs” before buying U.S. soy ^[23] ^[24]. In fact, Chinese buyers snapped up at least 10 Argentine soybean cargoes after Argentina cut its export tax ^[25] ^[26] – deals that analysts say “blow a fresh hole” in U.S. sales ^[27] ^[28]. USDA forecasters warn of a record U.S. corn crop and large soybean supplies this fall, which could further depress prices (farmers brace for losses) ^[29] ^[30]. FAO data show world food prices still near 2-year highs in August, with meat (esp. beef demand in US/China) at record levels ^[31], cereals down on big EU/Russian harvests ^[32], and vegetable oils (palm/sunflower) up on policy-driven demand ^[33]. Live cattle and hogs have seen modest bullish sentiment on tight supplies, but U.S. beef prices are fluctuating on domestic demand and feed costs.

Energy (Oil, Gas, Renewables)

Oil led commodity moves this week. On Sept 24 Brent crude jumped about 2.5% (to ~$69.30) – its strongest gain since July – after U.S. stockpiles fell more than expected ^[34]. Supply concerns from geopolitics added fuel: planned disruptions in Iraq, reduced exports from Venezuela, and attacks on Russian energy sites (Ukraine’s military claimed strikes on Russian oil stations ^[35]) kept markets nervous ^[36] ^[37]. US crude settled at ~$65 (WTI) on Sept 24, up ~$1.60 (2.5%) for the day ^[38]. However on Sept 25 prices gave back some gains: Brent fell to ~$68.80 (-0.7%) and WTI to ~$64.45 (-0.8%) ^[39]. Traders attributed the pullback to profit-taking, a softer demand outlook, and imminent return of Kurdish oil exports ^[40] ^[41]. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said markets are “risk-off” as equity slides weigh on crude ^[42], while Phillip Nova’s Priyanka Sachdeva warned that resuming Kurdish flows could reignite an oversupply narrative ^[43]. U.S. bank analysts (JPMorgan) also flagged cooling fuel demand: U.S. September air travel was almost flat and gasoline demand is “pulling back” as summer winds down ^[44] ^[45]. Overall, prices remain elevated by seasonal demand and geopolitical risk, but fundamentals suggest easing into Q4.

Natural gas markets were quieter. The big news was strategic: Turkey secured a long-term deal to import U.S. LNG (about 4 bcm/year under a 20-year contract with Mercuria). Ankara also agreed preliminary gas purchases with Australia’s Woodside for 5.8 bcm from 2030, as it seeks to diversify away from Russian supplies. Meanwhile the EU signaled plans to phase out Russian LNG by 2027 (ahead of schedule), and continued to ship more pipeline gas from Azerbaijan. Short-term gas prices edged up on colder forecasts in Asia and Europe, though global gas markets remain well-supplied. (Henry Hub gas stayed near $4–4.50/MMBtu, while spot European/North Asian LNG bids held firm on talk of plant outages.)

In renewables, a legal skirmish grabbed headlines. Denmark’s Ørsted said it restarted work on the 704 MW Revolution Wind offshore project off New England after a U.S. court allowed construction to resume ^[46]. The Biden administration had earlier faced a stop-work order (issued by the Trump DOE) delaying the wind farm, which was ~80% built ^[47]. Ørsted noted it has already sunk ~$5 billion into Revolution Wind ^[48] and would face huge costs if the project were canceled. The episode underscored political pushback against clean energy projects in the US, even as Massachusetts and Connecticut have embraced offshore wind. (Elsewhere, investor attention turned to China’s carbon targets and Europe’s coal use: a new report said global nuclear power output hit a record in 2024, but growth may slow ^[49].)

Metals (Precious & Industrial)

Safe-haven gold was volatile. It surged to a fresh all-time high on Sept 23 ($3,790.82/oz) as traders bet on Fed rate cuts and bought bullion amid global uncertainty ^[50]. U.S. Fed Chair Powell’s speech (Sep 23) offered no new clues on future cuts, so gold held near its peak. By Sept 24, gold eased ~0.8% (to ~$3,734.6) as the dollar firmed slightly ^[51]. In Asia on Sept 25, spot gold recovered to ~$3,770. Gold’s recent climb was fueled by aggressive ETF buying and expectations of two Fed cuts this year ^[52]. Silver and platinum also jumped (silver near a 14-year high, platinum >11-year high) ^[53] ^[54], reflecting broad bullishness in bullion. Commerzbank noted safe-haven flows and rate-cut bets underpinned precious metals ^[55].

Industrial metals had mixed fortunes. Copper rallied ~3–4% on Sept 24 after Freeport-McMoRan halted output at its Grasberg mine (force majeure on all shipments) ^[56]. Jefferies said the stoppage “should tighten an already tight copper market” ^[57]. London futures hit 15-month highs (about $9,200/ton) and stayed elevated into Sept 25. Other base metals were relatively flat or slightly higher: nickel and aluminum edged up but remain constrained by ample stocks and U.S. tariffs (U.S. aluminum premiums hit record levels in June ^[58]). China’s policy on scrap recycling and capacity is a watch-point: a recent report said China may regulate copper smelting to curb excess supply, which could support LME copper. (Aluminum prices in the U.S. remain historically high on Trump-era 50% import tariffs ^[59].)

Rare and minor metals: Palladium jumped ~3% (near $1,212) on auto demand, while platinum hit $1,481 (highest since 2014) as ETF buying took hold ^[60]. Cobalt and lithium prices were mostly unchanged, though battery-grade metals continue to be watched amid EV growth.

Agriculture (Grains, Softs, Livestock)

Oilseeds & Grains: Soybeans led grain news. China – by far the world’s biggest soybean buyer – has not bought any new U.S. soybeans for its 2025 harvest season, instead snapping up South American supplies. Chinese officials told U.S. lawmakers that the “unreasonable” U.S. tariffs must be lifted before they buy U.S. soy ^[61] ^[62]. Indeed, Chinese traders quickly booked at least 10 cargoes (and possibly up to 15) of Argentine soy for Nov delivery after Argentina removed its 30% export tax ^[63] ^[64]. The American Soybean Association warned U.S. farmers that every cargo China buys from Argentina is “key opportunities slip away” ^[65]. Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures were around 6-week lows on Sept 25. Corn futures held near their lows too: a record U.S. corn crop (16.8 bln bushels) is expected ^[66], and weaker U.S. demand (slower biofuel output, flattening ethanol use) has kept a lid on prices. Wheat prices have softened on large harvests in Europe and Russia ^[67] and uncertainty over Black Sea exports (Ukraine’s 2024 crop and exports may rise if weather is good ^[68], though EU import limits cap some sales). U.S. wheat futures traded near $5.20–5.30/bushel. Overall, supply gluts and trade disruptions (U.S.-China spat) are pressuring grain markets, though weather (Monsoon, Southern Hemisphere planting) will be monitored.

Soft commodities: Coffee futures in New York hit new highs ($4.24/lb on Sept 16) as U.S. tariffs on Brazilian beans (50% on green coffee) and drought concerns in Brazil sent prices soaring ^[69]. By Sept 24, coffee eased as traders took profits, but remained near 7-month highs ^[70]. “I attribute most of this rally to tariffs and supply-chain disruption,” said StoneX’s Tomas Araujo ^[71]. Cotton and cocoa moved modestly: ICE cotton futures dipped on the week due to improving U.S. stocks, while cocoa slumped (NY cocoa down ~3.6%) on heavy global supplies. Sugar: India’s government announced it will have a “surplus” of sugar in 2025/26 and plans to export again ^[72]. India had already permitted 1 mln tonnes of exports in 2024/25, and mills expect output to rebound to ~34.9m tonnes ^[73]. In Europe, weak prices have forced losses for processors (e.g. Suedzucker’s Q1 profit plunged 85%). EU sugar fell from €619/ton (Oct ’24) to €540 (May ’25) partly due to cheap Ukrainian imports ^[74]. The EU is now planning to slash Ukrainian sugar quotas by ~80% ^[75], and analysts expect EU prices to rise next season as beet acreage is cut ^[76]. Palm and soy oil prices drifted higher on biodiesel demand (Indonesia raised its palm oil mandate), even as soft wheat/starch demand remained sluggish.

Livestock: U.S. cattle and hog markets were steady. Fed cattle futures held firm on tight beef supplies and strong domestic demand, and lean hogs were flat to slightly higher ahead of USDA herd reports. U.S. beef wholesale prices and packer margins have held up (keeping cattle futures up), while pork prices are supported by steady export demand and limited domestic hog kills. In Asia, Chinese pork demand remains robust amid tight supplies. Global meat prices are at all-time highs, led by strong beef demand in the U.S. and China ^[77]. Analysts note that feed prices (corn/soy) are well below last year’s peaks, giving ranchers more margin, but any sharp weather or disease shocks (e.g. H5N1 in poultry) could quickly affect livestock prices.

Market Sentiment & Forecasts: Broadly, economists and bank analysts highlight an “anxiety” in markets: inflation risks vs growth concerns ^[78] ^[79]. Many expect central banks (Fed/ECB) to cut rates later this year if data soften (helping commodity prices), but rising supply (OPEC+ output, seasonal grain crops) could counter that. Commodity fund flows have been net-buyers of oil and gold recently, but funds remain underweight many other commodities. Climate factors (El Niño, EU green policies) are on traders’ radar, though no major disasters hit ag in late Sept. Overall, energy and precious metals headline rallies, while industrial metals and ag have more mixed outlooks.

Sources: News reports and market data from Reuters and industry analysts ^[80] ^[81] ^[82] ^[83] ^[84] ^[85] ^[86] (for details and quotes).

Commodities Outlook: What’s Driving Oil, Gold, and Base Metals

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References

Commodities Rollercoaster: Oil Rockets & Gold Smashes Records as Trade & Weather Woes Hit Agriculture (Sept 24–25, 2025)

Energy (Oil, Gas, Renewables)

Metals (Precious & Industrial)

Agriculture (Grains, Softs, Livestock)

References

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