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Constellation Energy (CEG) narrows 2025 outlook after Q3 EPS miss; CEG stock slips today (07.11.2025)
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Constellation Energy (CEG) narrows 2025 outlook after Q3 EPS miss; CEG stock slips today (07.11.2025)

by
7 November 2025

Constellation Energy Corporation (NASDAQ: CEG) reported third‑quarter results this morning, tightening its full‑year 2025 earnings guidance after a modest earnings miss. Adjusted operating EPS came in at $3.04, below the LSEG consensus (~$3.12), on $6.57 billion in revenue, up slightly year over year. The company now sees 2025 adjusted EPS of $9.05–$9.45 (midpoint $9.25). Shares traded lower in early action on the update. [1]

Key takeaways (as of 07.11.2025)

  • EPS miss, revenue essentially flat: Q3 adjusted operating EPS $3.04 vs. consensus near $3.12; revenue $6.57B vs. $6.55B a year ago. GAAP EPS $2.97. Guidance narrowed to $9.05–$9.45 for FY25. [2]
  • Stock reaction: CEG shares traded lower intraday following the print (see live chart above). External coverage also noted a break below recent technical levels. [3]
  • Operations strong: Nuclear fleet output rose to 46,477 GWh with a 96.8% capacity factor (ex‑Salem/STP). Management cited “favorable market and portfolio conditions,” partly offset by lower nuclear PTC revenue tied to higher anticipated gross receipts. [4]
  • Hydro milestone: Maryland issued a revised water quality certification for the Conowingo Dam, clearing the path to re‑licensing after a $340 million settlement announced last month. [5]

What moved the numbers

Earnings vs. expectations. Constellation posted adjusted operating EPS of $3.04; analysts were looking for roughly $3.12. Total operating expenses increased about 7.8% year over year to $5.48B, pressuring margins, while revenue ticked up to $6.57B from $6.55B. [6]

Guidance tightened. Full‑year 2025 adjusted EPS was narrowed to $9.05–$9.45 (from $8.90–$9.60 previously). Several outlets noted the midpoint sits below some street estimates (e.g., FactSet near $9.49). [7]

Fleet performance. Nuclear operations remained a bright spot: output climbed to 46,477 GWh and the capacity factor improved to 96.8% (ex‑Salem/STP). Planned refueling days fell to 23 (from 37 a year ago), and non‑refueling outage days dropped to 5 (from 20). [8]

Strategy & policy context investors are watching

Conowingo Dam re‑licensing back on track. In October 2025, Maryland’s Department of the Environment issued a revised Water Quality Certification for Conowingo—part of a $340 million settlement addressing sediment, debris, fish passage and other Chesapeake Bay impacts. Constellation highlighted the certification in today’s release as a key step to long‑term operation of the hydro facility. [9]

Maryland build‑out plan (Nov. 4). Earlier this week, Constellation proposed up to 5,800 MW of new generation and battery storage in Maryland to meet rising demand—~800 MW battery storage, >700 MW fast‑track gas units convertible to hydrogen, uprates and potential 2,000 MW of next‑gen nuclear at Calvert Cliffs, plus a 1,000 MW “virtual power plant” via expanded demand response. [10]

Calpine acquisition still approaching the finish line. The company reiterated it is “approaching the close” of the Calpine transaction. Key approvals—including FERC—have been secured; the deal has been expected to close in Q4 2025, pending remaining conditions. [11]

Market reaction and coverage

Financial press framed the day as a mixed report: healthy operations and secular demand tailwinds for data‑center power offset by the EPS shortfall and tighter guidance. Some technical analysts noted the stock slipping below a recent buy point on the news. [12]

By the numbers (Q3 2025)

  • GAAP EPS:$2.97; Adjusted operating EPS:$3.04 (vs. $2.74 in Q3’24)
  • Revenue:$6.57B (vs. $6.55B in Q3’24)
  • Nuclear output:46,477 GWh; Capacity factor:96.8% (ex‑Salem/STP)
  • Guidance (FY25):$9.05–$9.45 adjusted EPS
  • Earnings call:Today at 10:00 a.m. ET (webcast on the investor site)
    [13]

What’s next

  • Management webcast at 10:00 a.m. ET with slides posted to the investor site; look for color on price hedges, outage cadence, and Calpine integration milestones. [14]
  • Regulatory milestones to watch: final FERC licensing steps for Conowingo and remaining closing conditions for Calpine. [15]

Context & recent corporate actions

  • Dividend: The board declared a quarterly dividend of $0.3878 per share (record Nov. 17, payable Dec. 5, 2025). [16]

Sources

Company press release and filings; independent news coverage and state agency documents. Key references: Constellation Q3 2025 results release; Reuters earnings coverage; FT/Business Wire postings of the release; MDE documentation on Conowingo; and additional market coverage. [17]

This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.

Constellation Energy CEO: We're seeing load growth despite stock performance
Watch this video on YouTube.

References

1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.investors.com, 4. www.constellationenergy.com, 5. www.constellationenergy.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.constellationenergy.com, 9. mde.maryland.gov, 10. www.constellationenergy.com, 11. www.constellationenergy.com, 12. www.investors.com, 13. www.constellationenergy.com, 14. www.constellationenergy.com, 15. mde.maryland.gov, 16. www.businesswire.com, 17. www.constellationenergy.com

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Mateusz Kaczmarek Latest posts

A technology and finance expert writing for TS2.tech. He analyzes developments in satellites, telecommunications, and artificial intelligence, with a focus on their impact on global markets. Author of industry reports and market commentary, often cited in tech and business media. Passionate about innovation and the digital economy.

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