Costco Wholesale (COST) Stock: What to Watch Before the Market Opens on November 28, 2025

With U.S. markets closed for Thanksgiving on Thursday, Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ: COST) heads into Black Friday trading on Friday, November 28, 2025, with strong fundamentals but a much more mixed share-price story.

As of Wednesday’s close (November 26), Costco stock finished at $908.26, up 1.56% on the day but roughly flat to slightly negative for 2025, leaving the shares around 16% below their 52‑week high of about $1,078. ^[1] That sets the stage for an important holiday weekend where investors will be watching traffic, sales updates and any early indications ahead of the company’s next earnings report in mid‑December.

Costco stock snapshot heading into Black Friday

Last close: $908.26 on November 26, 2025. ^[2]
Recent move: Up about 1.6% on Wednesday after a stretch of choppy trading. ^[3]
52‑week range: Roughly $871.71–$1,078.24, putting the stock about 16% below its high. ^[4]
Market capitalization: Around $402 billion, firmly in mega‑cap territory. ^[5]
Valuation:
- Trailing P/E near 49–50x earnings. ^[6]
- Price‑to‑sales ratio around 1.4–1.5x. ^[7]
- PEG ratio above 5 on some estimates, underscoring a substantial premium. ^[8]
Year‑to‑date performance: Around –0.9% in 2025, essentially flat and lagging the broader S&P 500’s double‑digit gain. ^[9]

Third‑party technical services note that COST trades in the middle of a short‑term falling trend and model a modest downside bias over the next three months, even after Wednesday’s bounce. ^[10] At the same time, Costco’s long‑term total return remains exceptional, with five‑year performance above 130%. ^[11]

In other words: the business continues to outperform, while the stock is taking a breather after years of strength.

Strong fiscal 2025 results and October sales support the bull case

Fundamentally, Costco is finishing fiscal 2025 in very solid shape:

In Q4 FY 2025 (quarter ended August 31), net sales rose about 8% to $84.4 billion, with full‑year net sales up 8.1% to $269.9 billion. ^[12]
EPS climbed to $5.87 in Q4, up from $5.29 a year earlier, as net income grew roughly 11%. ^[13]
Comparable sales remained robust: about +5.7% in Q4 and +5.9% for the year, with e‑commerce comps up 13.6% in Q4 and 15.6% for the year. ^[14]
Membership fee revenue continued to grow, reaching roughly $1.72 billion in Q4 and $5.32 billion for the full year, highlighting the power of Costco’s subscription model. ^[15]
The company now operates over 900 warehouses worldwide (about 914) across 13 countries, including continued international expansion. ^[16]

A Reuters recap framed the quarter as another beat: Costco topped both profit and revenue estimates as budget‑conscious shoppers turned to its lower‑priced essentials, reinforcing the chain’s reputation as a defensive retailer in an inflation‑sensitive environment. ^[17]

October sales: momentum into the holiday quarter

The positive trend continued into the new fiscal year:

For the four‑week retail month of October (ended November 2, 2025), net sales rose 8.6% year‑over‑year to $21.75 billion. ^[18]
Net sales for the first nine weeks of the fiscal year reached $48.33 billion, up 8.3% from a year earlier. ^[19]
Total company comparable sales were up 6.6% for October and 6.1% for the nine‑week period, with U.S., Canada and international warehouses all contributing. ^[20]
Digitally enabled sales jumped 16.6% for the four‑week period and 21.6% over nine weeks, highlighting Costco’s improving online channel. ^[21]

Those numbers compare favorably to wholesale rival BJ’s, whose recent same‑store sales growth was closer to 1.8% and came in below expectations, even as it beat on earnings. ^[22]

Taken together, Costco enters the Black Friday weekend with clear sales momentum and strong membership‑driven profitability.

Analysts remain bullish, but valuation is the sticking point

Despite the flat share price this year, Wall Street’s stance on Costco stock remains broadly positive:

Data aggregated by StockAnalysis shows around 25 analysts rate COST a “Buy” on average, with a 12‑month price target near $1,064 — roughly 17% above the current level. ^[23]
Several recent pieces from outlets like Nasdaq, The Motley Fool and Simply Wall St all echo the same theme: Costco is a fantastic business, but the stock is expensive, trading near 49x trailing earnings — more than double typical consumer retail multiples. ^[24]

MarketBeat notes that COST has now erased its 2025 gains after a roughly 10% pullback in the last three months, even as earnings and comps consistently beat expectations. ^[25] Motley Fool calls the stock “in the red for 2025” but emphasizes that membership loyalty and recurring fee income remain as strong as ever. ^[26]

In short, long‑term bulls see the recent weakness as a valuation reset, not a deterioration in the underlying business — but the premium multiple leaves little room for disappointment in upcoming quarters.

Newsmakers: food recalls, product changes and member policies

While financial results have been strong, recent headlines around Costco have also included a series of product‑related recalls and policy changes:

Caesar salad and ready‑to‑eat recall

Over the past week, Costco and supplier Ventura Foods issued a voluntary recall of two popular ready‑to‑eat items — a Caesar Salad and a Chicken Sandwich with Caesar Salad sold in select U.S. regions — due to the possible presence of plastic fragments in the dressing. ^[27]

The affected products carried sell‑by dates between October 17 and November 9, 2025, and were sold in certain Midwest, Northeast and Southeast warehouses. ^[28]
Customers are being urged to stop consuming the items and return them for a full refund; Texas locations were specifically noted as not impacted. ^[29]

A broader lifestyle news cycle has picked up on these and other recent Costco recalls (including sparkling wine and seafood items earlier in the year), prompting headlines about “everyone talking about Costco recalls during Thanksgiving.” ^[30] So far, though, there’s no indication of systemic issues, and Costco has moved quickly to notify members and offer refunds.

Product withdrawals and member “friction”

Costco also continues to tweak its product mix and member experience:

The company has pared back in‑warehouse book sales and quietly discontinued or rotated some Kirkland Signature items, such as certain soy milk and baking products — changes that have sparked lively debate among members online but are relatively minor to overall revenue. ^[31]
New membership policies and perks introduced in 2025 have drawn mixed reactions, with some customers worried about perceived “nickel‑and‑diming,” even as early data suggests a positive impact on sales and higher‑tier upgrades. ^[32]

For investors, these stories are worth monitoring mainly for brand perception and member satisfaction, but they haven’t derailed the company’s financial momentum so far.

Institutional investors are actively repositioning in COST

Fresh 13F filings show that major investors continue to trade around Costco’s pullback:

Korea Investment Corp increased its stake by about 5.1%, boosting an already substantial position. ^[33]
GM Advisory Group lifted its COST holdings by roughly 37% in the second quarter. ^[34]
Quadrant Capital Group also raised its stake by nearly 19%. ^[35]
On the other side, United Super (Construction & Building Unions Superannuation Fund) trimmed its Costco position by about 4.1%, and Bell Asset Management reported modest sales. ^[36]
Several U.S. wealth managers, including Johnson Financial Group, have reported new or increased COST stakes. ^[37]

These moves underline Costco’s status as a core institutional holding: some funds are taking profits or rebalancing after years of outperformance, while others are leaning into the recent weakness as an opportunity to add.

Dividend, cash returns and balance sheet

Income‑oriented investors will note that Costco’s dividend remains modest but steadily rising:

The board declared a quarterly dividend of $1.30 per share in October, paid on November 14 to shareholders of record as of October 31. ^[38]
The annualized payout of $5.20 per share translates to a yield around 0.6% at current prices — low, but backed by strong free cash flow and a long history of occasional special dividends. ^[39]

Costco’s balance sheet remains conservative, with debt‑to‑equity around 0.2 and current and quick ratios just over 1.0 and around 0.55, respectively. ^[40] That financial flexibility is an important backstop if consumer trends soften or if management chooses to return more capital through buybacks or a future special dividend.

Key catalysts after Thanksgiving: November sales and Q1 earnings

Black Friday and the broader holiday season arrive with Costco sitting at a valuation premium but with strong top‑line momentum. Over the next few weeks, investors will get two major data points:

November sales report – expected December 3, 2025
Costco’s investor calendar lists a November sales release in early December. ^[41] October’s high‑single‑digit sales growth set a high bar; November comps will show how well the company is capturing holiday demand and whether digital strength continues.
Q1 FY 2026 earnings – scheduled for December 11, 2025
- The next earnings announcement is expected on December 11, with consensus EPS around $4.24 for the quarter ending November 30, up roughly 11% year‑over‑year. ^[42]
- Another beat on earnings and same‑store sales could reassure investors that the premium multiple remains justified. A miss or cautious outlook could pressure a stock that many already consider richly valued.

In addition, Black Friday and Cyber Monday traffic — both in‑store and online — will shape investor sentiment for the entire retail and club‑store space.

Holiday context: markets closed today, early close Friday

For timing, it’s worth remembering:

Thanksgiving Day (Thursday, November 27, 2025): NYSE and Nasdaq are closed; Costco warehouses in the U.S. are also shut, in line with company policy. ^[43]
Black Friday (Friday, November 28, 2025):
- U.S. stock markets open as usual but close early at 1 p.m. ET. ^[44]
- Major retailers — including Costco’s key competitors — will run aggressive promotions, with investors watching for commentary on traffic and discounting intensity.

That compressed trading day can sometimes create exaggerated moves on relatively low volume, especially in individual names.

What Costco investors may want to watch before the open on November 28

Heading into Friday’s session, here are the key watchpoints around Costco stock:

Pre‑market trading and liquidity
- Check how COST trades in pre‑market, especially versus other big‑box and club peers like Walmart, Target and BJ’s.
- Any large gap up or down on light volume could be reversed quickly in a half‑day session.
Short‑term technical levels
- The $900 region has been an important psychological level; bulls will want to see the stock hold above that area.
- With shares still well below their 52‑week high but just off recent lows, technicians are watching for either a breakdown toward the mid‑800s or a more decisive push back toward the 50‑day moving average. ^[45]
Newsflow on recalls and customer sentiment
- Any expansion of the food recall or fresh viral stories about member dissatisfaction could temporarily weigh on sentiment, even if the financial impact is minor. ^[46]
Macro data and interest‑rate expectations
- Broader equity markets have been driven this year by AI optimism and expectations for further rate cuts in 2026. A shift in rate outlook affects high‑multiple names like Costco disproportionately. ^[47]
Read‑through from other retailers
- Commentary from Walmart, Amazon, Target and BJ’s on holiday traffic, promotional intensity and inventory may color how investors view Costco’s positioning in value‑oriented retail. ^[48]

Bottom line

Heading into the November 28, 2025 open, Costco Wholesale stock sits at an interesting crossroads:

The business is firing on almost all cylinders — strong membership economics, mid‑single‑digit to high‑single‑digit comp growth, expanding e‑commerce and disciplined international expansion. ^[49]
The stock, however, is merely flat to slightly down in 2025 and trades at nearly 50x earnings and ~1.4x sales, a premium that assumes Costco can keep compounding earnings at a healthy rate. ^[50]
Short‑term narratives — from food recalls and controversial member policies to Black Friday sales headlines — may drive volatility in the coming days, but are unlikely to change the long‑term thesis unless they begin to dent traffic or renewal rates in a measurable way. ^[51]

For long‑term investors watching before Friday’s open, the question isn’t whether Costco is a strong business — that’s well established — but whether today’s price offers enough margin of safety given its rich multiple and the possibility of further short‑term volatility.

As always, this article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Investors should consider their own risk tolerance, time horizon and financial situation — and, if needed, consult a qualified advisor — before making any decisions regarding Costco Wholesale Corporation

Baker: Costco shines when the economy softens