Critical Metals Corp (CRML) Skyrockets on U.S. Stake Rumors – Inside the Tanbreez Rare Earth Power Play

• Stock Soars on Govt Interest: Critical Metals Corp (NASDAQ: CRML) shares surged over 75% in pre-market trading on Oct 6, 2025, after reports that Washington is discussing taking an equity stake in the company ^[1]. The stock had closed the prior session at $7.98 (≈$787 million market cap) ^[2], then spiked to around $13.6 in after-hours on heavy volume following the news. Investors piled in amid speculation the U.S. government may acquire roughly an 8% ownership of CRML for $50 million ^[3], signaling strong confidence in the company’s strategic assets.
• Tanbreez – World-Class Rare Earth Deposit: Critical Metals’ flagship Tanbreez project in southern Greenland is one of the world’s largest rare earth element (REE) deposits ^[4]. The site hosts at least 45 million tonnes of mineral resources (~1/3 heavy rare earths) within a massive 4.7 billion-tonne ore body ^[5] – indicating huge exploration upside. Notably, Tanbreez’s ore contains high concentrations of heavy REEs like dysprosium and terbium, plus critical co-elements like gallium, a mineral that China recently placed under export restrictions ^[6]. These grades and gallium credits make Tanbreez a “strategically important asset for Western supply chains,” as the company’s CEO Tony Sage has noted ^[7].
• U.S. Backs Critical Minerals Push: The interest in CRML comes amid a broader U.S. drive to secure domestic supplies of critical minerals used in EVs, defense systems and electronics. In recent months, Washington took stakes in Lithium Americas (5% for its Nevada lithium project) and MP Materials (~15% of the only U.S. rare-earth mine) ^[8]. Now officials are eyeing Critical Metals’ Tanbreez deposit – Greenland’s largest rare-earth project – to give the U.S. a direct interest in this strategic resource ^[9]. The Trump administration (in office 2025) even invoked emergency powers under the Defense Production Act to boost critical mineral production and offset China’s near-total control of the sector ^[10]. As part of that effort, Critical Metals applied for a $50 million DPA grant in June 2025, and talks are underway to convert that grant into an equity stake (~8%) in the company ^[11]. Separately, the U.S. Export-Import Bank signaled support with a $120 million loan (15-year term) to help develop Tanbreez ^[12] – funding under a program for projects that compete with China.
• High-Level Support – Not a Done Deal: The potential U.S. stake in CRML is still under discussion. A senior official noted “hundreds of companies” have approached the administration for critical mineral investments, and “nothing is close with [Critical Metals] at this time” ^[13], tempering expectations. Any deal would likely be structured via warrants to grant the government shares ^[14]. Still, the fact that Critical Metals is on Washington’s radar underscores its strategic value. The EXIM Bank’s letter of interest for a $120M loan came with a condition that the project be “well-capitalized with sufficient equity from strategic investors” ^[15] – a hurdle that a government equity injection could satisfy. If completed, the $50M stake plus EXIM financing would cover a substantial portion of Tanbreez’s ~$290 million estimated development cost ^[16]. This aligns with U.S. policy moves to directly fund supply-chain resilience: “The U.S. has recently taken stakes in companies mining critical minerals,” including CRML’s peers, as Reuters notes ^[17].
• Company Profile & Assets:Critical Metals Corp is a mining development company focused on securing rare earth and lithium supplies for U.S. and European markets ^[18]. The New York-based firm was formed via a SPAC merger in early 2024 and is led by Executive Chairman Tony Sage, a mining veteran. CRML’s two core assets are: (1) Tanbreez Rare Earth Project – a globally significant REE deposit in Greenland – and (2) Wolfsberg Lithium Project in Austria, the first fully permitted lithium mine in Europe ^[19]. Wolfsberg is expected to be a major supplier of battery-grade lithium for the EU market, giving Critical Metals a diversified critical minerals portfolio ^[20]. With these projects, the company’s mission is to become a reliable Western supplier of materials essential for electrification, clean energy and defense technologies ^{[21] [22]}.
• Tanbreez Rare Earth Project – “Game Changer” for the West: The Tanbreez deposit (named after its tantalum, niobium, rare earth, zirconium content) is a heavy rare-earth-rich resource situated on Greenland’s southern coast. It contains significant quantities of neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) used in magnets, but crucially also dysprosium, terbium, and other heavy REEs needed for high-temperature magnets in EV motors and missiles ^[23]. Geologist Gregory Barnes, who discovered Tanbreez, agreed to sell it to Critical Metals in 2024 after U.S. officials (the Biden administration at the time) lobbied to block a higher offer from a Chinese buyer, ensuring this strategic asset remained in Western hands ^[24]. CRML initially acquired a 42% stake in Tanbreez for $5 million cash and $211 million in stock ^[25], and in September 2025 it amended the deal to boost ownership to 92.5% ^[26]. The company will issue 14.5 million shares (implying ~$8.00/share value) to Barnes’ entity, with Australia’s European Lithium retaining a 7.5% minority interest ^{[27] [28]}. “Tanbreez is a game-changer for the rare earths supply chain in the West,” said Barnes, citing its high-grade heavy REE and gallium content in a vast 4.7 Bt resource base ^[29]. The site benefits from year-round deepwater access via fjord, allowing concentrate to be shipped directly to the Atlantic ^[30] – a logistical plus for this remote Arctic location.
• Project Timeline and Offtake Deals: Critical Metals is fast-tracking Tanbreez toward production. The initial mine development is projected to cost about $290 million and begin producing by 2026, according to the company ^[31]. A recent preliminary economic assessment (PEA) estimated an impressive $3 billion pre-tax NPV (at a 12.5–15% discount rate) and an extraordinary 180% IRR for the project ^[32], reflecting the huge potential value relative to investment. The plan foresees initial output of ~85,000 tonnes of rare earth oxide (REO) annually by 2026, ramping up to ~425,000 tpa with modular expansion ^[33]. (For comparison, 425k tons would dwarf current global REO output – underscoring Tanbreez’s scale, though full ramp-up may be long-term.) In August 2025, CRML secured its first customer by signing a 10-year offtake agreement with Ucore Rare Metals, which is opening a Defense Department-funded REE separation plant in Louisiana ^{[34] [35]}. Under the deal, Critical Metals will supply up to 10,000 tonnes of rare earth concentrate per year to Ucore ^[36], providing feedstock for Ucore’s high-purity oxide production. Ucore’s plant (breaking ground in Louisiana’s England Airpark) aims to produce 2,000 tpa of separated oxides in 2026 and scale to 7,500 tpa by 2028 ^[37]. Both sides hailed the partnership: “Tanbreez offers tremendous opportunities given the significant heavy rare earths it contains… both companies share a vision to lessen China’s grip on the rare earth ecosystem,” said Ucore CEO Pat Ryan ^[38]. Sage added that having a committed buyer “provides Critical Metals with our first revenue stream and flexibility to supply other U.S. facilities in the future, given the immense size of Tanbreez” ^[39]*. The offtake was brokered by GreenMet, a D.C.-based advisory firm, whose CEO called it a “landmark achievement” toward a resilient domestic supply chain ^[40].
• Recent Developments – Funding and Resource Growth: In late September, Critical Metals reported strong drilling results at Tanbreez’s Fjord Zone, confirming broad intercepts of ~0.4% TREO with ~26% heavy REO—a very high heavy fraction—plus notable zirconium, niobium, tantalum, and ~95 ppm gallium in the ore ^{[41] [42]}. This bolsters confidence that Tanbreez’s mineralization is extensive and consistent, with mineralization open at depth. To capitalize on these advances, CRML announced on October 6, 2025 that it raised $35 million in fresh capital via a PIPE financing with a new institutional investor ^[43]. The deal issues 5 million shares (and warrants for 10 million more at $7.00 strike) for gross proceeds of $35M ^[44], providing non-dilutive cash to “fund the development of [the] 4.7 billion tonne Tanbreez deposit” ^[45]. “This financing from a fundamental investor validates the opportunities ahead for Tanbreez and underscores the growing need for heavy rare earths in the West,” Sage commented ^[46]. The infusion strengthens CRML’s balance sheet as it moves toward feasibility studies, permitting and construction. The Tanbreez ownership increase (to 92.5%) is pending final sign-off by Greenland’s government ^[47], but once approved, Critical Metals will have near-total control of the project’s destiny.
• Strategic Context – Breaking China’s Monopoly: Rare earth elements are crucial for EVs, wind turbines, smartphones, and military hardware, yet China dominates roughly 85–90% of global REE mining and processing ^[48]. In fact, “China’s near-total control” of rare earth extraction and refining has spurred an urgent Western quest for alternative supply ^[49]. The Tanbreez project is at the heart of this geopolitical resource tug-of-war. Greenland, a Danish autonomous territory, has emerged as a strategic target for the U.S. – it hosts vast untapped minerals and the U.S.’s northernmost military base. Former President Trump famously mused about buying Greenland in 2019, and as President again in 2025 he sent officials (including VP JD Vance) to court Greenland’s leaders ^[50]. The prior U.S. administration under Biden also quietly intervened to ensure Greenland’s richest rare-earth asset (Tanbreez) landed with an American-friendly firm (CRML) rather than a Chinese state-backed suitor ^[51]. This high-level attention underscores Tanbreez’s perceived importance to national security. U.S. defense planners consider secure REE supplies “paramount for… defense capabilities” in an era of great-power competition ^[52]. Gallium, a critical semiconductor material found at Tanbreez, was added to the list of concerns after Beijing imposed export curbs on gallium in 2024 ^[53]. By developing Tanbreez and similar projects, the U.S. and allies aim to lessen China’s grip on these supply chains ^[54]. Critical Metals has explicitly stated its goal is to perform downstream processing inside the United States ^[55], rather than shipping raw concentrate to Asia. Achieving that would close the loop in a domestic mine-to-magnet supply chain (complementing efforts like Lynas’s new Texas separation plant, funded with $258M from the DoD ^[56], and MP Materials’ planned magnet factory backed by a U.S. grant). In short, CRML’s Tanbreez could become a cornerstone of Western rare-earth independence, especially for heavy REEs that even Lynas and MP have in limited supply.
• Competitive Landscape: Critical Metals is emerging in a field long dominated by China and a handful of non-Chinese players. Its closest comparables are MP Materials and Lynas Rare Earths. MP Materials (NYSE: MP) operates the Mountain Pass mine in California, currently the only large-scale U.S. REE source. MP produces mostly light REEs (like NdPr) and had been sending its concentrate to China for refining, but it’s now building domestic processing and magnet-making capacity with Pentagon support. In July 2025, the DoD invested ~$400 million for a 15% stake in MP ^[57], making the U.S. government MP’s largest shareholder and underscoring the strategic value of rare earths mining on U.S. soil ^[58]. MP’s market capitalization (around $2.5–3 billion in 2025) is roughly double Critical Metals’ post-rally valuation, reflecting MP’s head start as a producer. Lynas Rare Earths (ASX: LYC) of Australia is the world’s largest REE miner outside China ^[59]. It supplies 20,000+ tpa of REO from its Mt Weld mine and Malaysian processing plant, focusing on light REEs. Lynas is now building a heavy rare earth separation facility in Texas, scheduled to open ~2026 with both DoD and commercial clients ^[60]. The DoD upped its funding for Lynas’s U.S. plant to $258 million ^[61], highlighting the concerted effort to establish heavy REE processing capability domestically. Lynas’s entrenched production and processing expertise make it a formidable competitor, but Tanbreez’s sheer scale and heavy-element profile could be complementary – potentially feeding multiple processors as demand grows. Beyond these, dozens of junior companies (e.g. USA Rare Earth, Rare Element Resources, Pensana) are vying to develop rare earth projects, but Critical Metals distinguishes itself by already securing a giant deposit and high-profile backing. “Critical Metals offers exposure to one of the world’s largest rare earth deposits, [but] with high execution risk,” one analyst observed, noting that unlike MP or Lynas, CRML must still build a mine in a remote Arctic environment. Greenland’s mining sector is nascent – only two small mines operate currently, amid regulatory and environmental hurdles ^[62]. This means CRML faces challenges in mobilizing labor, infrastructure and permitting for Tanbreez’s development. However, substantial government support (grants, loans, offtake agreements) could mitigate these risks and financing barriers. If Tanbreez hits its milestones, Critical Metals could vault into the top tier of rare-earth suppliers in the latter half of this decade, filling a critical gap in heavy REE supply for Western industries.
• Financials and Valuation: Prior to the recent spike, Critical Metals’ stock had risen ~17% year-to-date ^[63], reflecting growing investor awareness of its assets. After the ~80% jump on the U.S. stake news, CRML’s market cap is now roughly $1.4 billion (at ~$14/share). The company remains pre-revenue – it will likely report net losses until Tanbreez and Wolfsberg enter production. As of October 2025, CRML has bolstered its cash position (with $35M new from the PIPE ^[64], on top of any remaining SPAC trust funds and prior raise), but full project financing needs are much larger. The anticipated EXIM loan ($120M) and potential Defense Production Act funds ($50M grant/equity) would together cover about ~58% of Tanbreez’s $290M initial capex ^[65]. The company may seek additional capital via strategic partners, offtake prepayments, or equity to close the gap – although the recent PIPE and the implied government backing improve its financing outlook. In terms of valuation, the PEA’s ~$3B NPV (pre-tax) for Tanbreez dwarfs CRML’s current market cap ^[66], suggesting significant upside if the project is executed successfully. Investors, however, are balancing that upside against execution risks: complex Arctic construction, processing technology scale-up, and the need for permitting and community support in Greenland. On October 7, 2025, Critical Metals is scheduled to host its Q3 earnings call, where analysts will watch for updates on the Greenland approval, feasibility study plans, and any progress on U.S. government negotiations ^[67]. Positive news on those fronts could further validate the company’s valuation, while delays or uncertainties could inject volatility.
• Outlook: Critical Metals Corp has swiftly moved to the forefront of the critical minerals sector, backed by one of the most significant rare earth finds in recent memory. In a span of weeks, the company gained near-total control of Tanbreez ^[68], secured a U.S. offtake partner ^[69], raised new funding ^[70], and captured the attention of policymakers at the highest levels. This flurry of developments reflects not just corporate progress, but the accelerating global race for resource security. The U.S. and its allies are urgently investing to ensure key materials like rare earths, lithium, and gallium are available from friendly sources – and Critical Metals has positioned itself as a linchpin in that effort. There are still hurdles ahead: obtaining Greenlandic government approvals, building processing capacity (the company reiterates that ultimately “the goal is to refine the material inside the U.S.” ^[71]), and delivering on ambitious production targets by 2026. Additionally, China’s response bears watching – increased Chinese rare earth output or price tactics could impact market dynamics by the time Tanbreez comes online. Nonetheless, Critical Metals now stands out as a potential “Western rare earth champion” alongside MP Materials and Lynas, with a uniquely rich heavy-element asset. Government stake or not, the strategic importance of CRML’s Tanbreez project is clear. As one industry executive put it, both Critical Metals and its partners are “addressing national security challenges” by building new supply chains ^[72]. For investors and policymakers alike, CRML will be a closely watched player as the West strives to break free from China’s chokehold on critical minerals.

Sources:

1. Reuters – “Trump administration eyes stake in company developing Greenland rare earths mine”, Oct 3, 2025 ^{[73] [74]}.
2. Reuters – “Critical Metals shares surge after Reuters report says Washington eyeing stake”, Oct 6, 2025 ^{[75] [76]}.
3. NAI500 – “Critical Metals Shares Soar 80% as U.S. Mulls Stake in Greenland Rare Earths”, Oct 5, 2025 ^{[77] [78]}.
4. Mining.com – “Critical Metals, Ucore ink 10-year offtake deal to supply rare earths to US plant”, Aug 27, 2025 ^{[79] [80]}.
5. Globe Newswire (via Junior Mining Network) – “Critical Metals Corp Signs $35M PIPE with Institutional Investor”, Oct 6, 2025 ^{[81] [82]}.
6. SEC Edgar (Press Release) – “Critical Metals Corp Amends Agreement to Acquire Controlling Interest in Tanbreez”, Sept 29, 2025 ^{[83] [84]}.
7. Investing News Network – “CRML Reports Massive Mineralization… at Tanbreez”, Sept 3, 2025 ^{[85] [86]}.
8. Reuters – “Lynas signs updated contract with U.S. DoD for Texas facility”, Aug 1, 2023 ^{[87] [88]}.
9. Reuters – “Trump administration’s investment push in rare-earth companies, chipmakers (Factbox)”, Oct 6, 2025 ^{[89] [90]}.
10. Reuters – “Exclusive: US EXIM Bank considers $120 mln loan for Greenland rare earths project”, June 15, 2025 ^{[91] [92]}.

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