- U.S. stake rumor sparks rally: CRML shares jumped ~62% on Oct.6 after Reuters reported the U.S. government was “in talks to buy a stake” in the company’s Greenland rare-earth project [1]. Benchmark Mineral Intelligence notes that a U.S. stake in Tanbreez would be “a significant step toward building a diversified ‘mine-to-magnet’ supply chain independent of China” [2].
- Major deals boost confidence: On Oct.6 CRML closed a $35 million private-placement financing (PIPE) to fund Tanbreez development [3]. Two days later it announced a 10-year letter of intent to supply 15% of Tanbreez output to U.S. processor REalloys [4] [5], lifting the stock ~21%. These offtakes (with REalloys and earlier Ucore deals) now cover ~25% of production.
- Wild price swings: CRML hit new 52-week highs (~$32 intraday) in mid-Oct [6] before collapsing ~24% on Oct.15 to $22.72 [7]. The stock rebounded to about $24 by Oct.16 morning [8]. MarketBeat notes CRML is trading far above its historical range (the 50-day avg was just ~$7.62) and has seen record volatility (±35% intraday swings) [9] [10].
- Mixed analyst views: Ratings are split – Weiss Ratings reiterated a sell warning (saying current levels assume “perfect execution” on all projects) [11], and Wall Street Zen cut CRML from “Hold” to Sell [12]. By contrast, one research service lists a lone “Strong Buy” and a 12-month target of $12 (implying ~50% downside) [13].
- Demand-driven sector: The rally reflects a booming critical-minerals market. By 2024 global lithium demand rose ~30% (versus 10% annual in prior years) and rare-earth demand +6–8% [14], driven by EVs, renewables and defense. U.S. and EU policy is aggressively shifting supply chains: on Oct.15 U.S. Trade Rep. Greer blasted China’s proposed rare-earth export curbs as a “global supply-chain power grab” [15], underscoring why Western miners like CRML are in favor. Peers also rallied – for example, MP Materials jumped ~19% on Oct.13 after the U.S. Pentagon funded its U.S. rare-earth plant [16].
- Trading frenzy: Retail interest has surged CRML’s volume. More than 60 million shares traded on Oct.14 alone (per Benzinga Pro data) [17], making it a “meme”-like roller-coaster. JPMorgan’s Oct.13 announcement of a $1.5 trillion investment initiative (with “critical minerals” first on the list) helped fuel the mania – CEO Jamie Dimon said “America needs more speed and investment” [18], adding momentum to stocks like CRML.
Stock Price and Recent Performance
As of Oct.16, 2025 midday, CRML trades in the mid-$20s, rebounding from Oct.15’s close at $22.72 [19]. That day’s 24% plunge followed a parabolic run higher: in early Oct the stock was only single digits, yet by Oct.13 it hit a 52-week high ($21.45 intraday) and by Oct.14 briefly traded near $32 [20]. These gains made CRML one of the top Nasdaq performers. On Oct.6 alone the stock spiked over 60%, reflecting Reuters’s scoop on a possible U.S. equity investment [21] [22]. Volume has been enormous – Oct.15 saw ~51 million shares traded ($1.16 billion value) [23] – and volatility remains very high (StockInvest labels CRML “very high risk” given daily swings over 30% [24]).
Technically, CRML broke well above long-term resistance in the $19–20 range during this rally [25]. Short-term moving averages are surging, prompting some buy signals [26]. However, chart analysts warn that near-term support now lies around $17 [27], so a break below could see steep losses. Given the stock’s extreme run-up, many traders are taking profits or setting tight stop-loss orders to manage risk.
Recent News and Catalysts
Several recent developments drove CRML’s surge: First, government backing – Reuters confirmed CRML’s application for a $50 M U.S. Defense Production Act grant could be converted into roughly an 8% equity stake [28] [29]. The White House later cautioned nothing was decided, but the rumor alone triggered the Oct.6 rally. Analysts call the prospect strategically huge: a stake in Tanbreez “would mark a significant step” toward a Western rare-earth supply chain independent of China [30].
Second, financing – on Oct.6 CRML announced it had raised $35 M from a new institutional investor, issuing 5 million shares (plus warrants) to advance Tanbreez [31]. CEO Tony Sage said this “validates the opportunities ahead for Tanbreez” and underscores rising Western demand for heavy REEs [32].
Third, offtake partnerships – on Oct.8 the company signed a 10-year letter of intent with REalloys Inc. to take up to 15% of Tanbreez’s output for U.S. magnet-making [33] [34]. Combined with an earlier August deal with Ucore (10 ktpa for 10 years), roughly 25% of Tanbreez production is now earmarked for U.S. processors [35] [36]. Each announcement sent the stock higher (REalloys news alone spiked CRML ~21% [37]). REalloys CEO Lipi Mainheim hailed Tanbreez as “a remarkable opportunity… vital to the defense industrial base” [38], highlighting its strategic value.
Finally, Greenland positioning – in late Sept CRML agreed to increase its Tanbreez stake from 42% to 92.5% (pending government approval) [39], making it the controlling partner in this massive deposit. Drilling has confirmed roughly 4.7 billion tonnes of ore rich in heavy rare earth oxides [40] (dysprosium and terbium, which are crucial for EVs, wind turbines and defense tech). Analysts note Tanbreez is “a massive high-grade rare-earth deposit” with heavy-REE content [41] – a potential game-changer for U.S. supply. On the lithium side, CRML’s Wolfsberg project in Austria is fully permitted and positioned for Europe’s electric-vehicle battery boom [42].
These developments have put CRML in the center of Washington’s critical-minerals push. U.S. agencies (EXIM Bank, DoD) have extended letters of interest or grants to the project, and even the EU is exploring Greenland partnerships [43]. For context, the U.S. has been taking equity stakes in peers like MP Materials and Lithium Americas as part of this strategy [44] [45].
Valuation and Analyst Forecasts
Despite the buzz, CRML’s fundamentals remain lean. For 2025 the company reported only ~$0.56 million in revenue (up from $117k) [46] against a net loss of $51.9 million. In other words, it’s essentially an explorer with virtually no sales yet. With a market cap around $2.4 billion, that implies an EV-to-sales ratio well over 1,000× [47]. One analyst points out CRML trades at ~$1.6B enterprise value on only ~$0.5M in sales [48] – astonishing by any measure. As Weiss Ratings cautions, the current stock price assumes “perfect execution” of all these projects [49].
Against this backdrop, formal forecasts are modest. StockAnalysis.com shows a lone analyst issuing a Strong Buy but with a 12-month target of just $12 [50] – about 47% below current levels. (Any upside may come from accelerating project milestones or a formal U.S. investment.) In fact, one quantitative model (StockInvest) projects a ~54% further gain in the next three months – giving a wide 90% confidence range of roughly $12–$46 [51]. This reflects the stock’s wild swings: recent support levels ($17 and $9) and short-term targets ($22+) are speculative.
Technically, analysts note CRML’s momentum is extremely strong but precarious. Both 50-day and 200-day moving averages (around ~$6–7 before October) have been blasted through [52]. Some chart watchers now see near-term resistance above ~$22 and support nearer $17 [53]. Trading strategists advise caution: Tim Bohen (StocksToTrade) urges investors to have a “clear entry strategy” and not blindly chase this rally [54]. Indeed, many suggest taking partial profits after such gains.
On balance, major firms have become mixed or bearish. MarketBeat notes Weiss Ratings and Wall Street Zen each issued sell calls on CRML this week [55]. No major bank has upgraded CRML with a high target – even bullish outlets cap 12-month forecasts near the pre-rally price (around $12–$15) [56]. In short, fundamentals lag behind the hype, so risk management is vital.
Critical Minerals Market and Peers
CRML’s surge is part of a broader commodities theme. Western governments and industries are frantically securing alternatives to China’s grip on critical minerals. China still dominates ~85–90% of rare-earth processing and about 60% of mining [57]. U.S. and EU leaders have invoked emergency powers (like the Defense Production Act) and funding to break this dominance. The IEA reports that in 2024 lithium demand jumped ~30% (far above its long-term 10% rate) and rare-earth demand rose ~6–8%, driven by EVs, batteries and grid tech [58]. This underpins the strategic rush.
In this environment, other miners are also rallying. For example, MP Materials (NYSE: MP) surged ~13% on Oct.13 (19% intraday) after the U.S. Pentagon invested $400 M in its Idaho rare-earth plant [59]. Lynas Rare Earths (ASX:LYC) and other European lithium explorers have similarly seen gains as news of supply risks spread. Notably, on Oct.13–15 China provoked markets by expanding rare-earth export controls. U.S. officials immediately blasted the move – calling it a “power grab” – and even floated tariff retaliation [60]. Such headlines send investors toward U.S.-listed miners.
CRML sits at the intersection of these trends: it offers exposure to both rare earths (heavy REEs for magnets) and lithium (for EV batteries). Its Greenland Tanbreez deposit is unique in having high-grade dysprosium and terbium (heavy REEs crucial for EV motors and defense) [61]. REalloys’ deal highlights that content, and the U.S. sees this asset as “vital to the defense industrial base” [62]. Meanwhile, Wolfsberg could tap the booming EU battery market. Investors compare CRML’s situation to a high-stakes bet on geopolitics as much as geology.
Outlook – Cautious Optimism
With critical-mineral policies accelerating, CRML’s story is compelling – but execution hurdles remain. The stock’s ride is driven by expectation of massive future value. If the U.S. indeed formalizes funding or partnerships, and Tanbreez development stays on track, analysts see upside. As one analyst put it, JPMorgan’s pledge of “America needs more speed and investment” into critical industries [63] could speed that path. But if any element fails (e.g. Greenland approvals stall or China’s trade war cools), the stock could retreat sharply.
In the near term (Oct.16 onward), the focus is on follow-through: Does Washington officially invest? Do trading levels hold above key technical supports? Many market watchers emphasize risk control. Given the 10x+ volatility CRML has shown, experienced investors plan for swings. Some suggest locking in profits earned so far and waiting for clearer catalysts. As sentiment shifts quickly, having a plan is crucial.
Bottom Line: Critical Metals Corp epitomizes a high-risk, high-reward play on U.S. rare-earth strategy. Its stock has exploded on government and offtake news, but it’s far from a sure thing. Experts agree the fundamentals are still minimal and the valuation is aggressive [64] [65]. Yet if CRML can deliver on Tanbreez and lithium milestones, the strategic upside is enormous. For now, investors are watching developments daily – any sign of real government backing or resource breakthroughs could send CRML higher, while setbacks could trigger steep sell-offs.
Sources: Reuters, TechStock², MarketBeat, StockInvest, Benzinga, IEA and company filings [66] [67] [68] [69] [70] [71], among others. Each source is cited in context above.
References
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