Key takeaways
- Q4 headline numbers were strong on revenue but weaker on profit. Deere & Company reported net income of $1.065 billion, or $3.93 per share, down from $1.245 billion ($4.55 per share) a year earlier, even as sales rose about 11% to roughly $12.4 billion and beat Wall Street estimates. [1]
- Full‑year 2025 results confirm a downshift in the cycle. Net income fell about 29% year over year to around $5.0 billion, while worldwide net sales and revenues declined roughly 12% to about $45.7 billion. [2]
- 2026 guidance is the real story – and it’s cautious. Management now expects fiscal 2026 net income between $4.0 and $4.75 billion, below both 2025’s $5.03 billion and analyst expectations near $5.2 billion. [3]
- Tariffs are set to bite harder. Deere forecasts its pre‑tax tariff bill doubling to about $1.2 billion in 2026, from nearly $600 million in 2025, putting pressure on margins in large farm equipment. [4]
- Shares sold off sharply into the holiday. DE stock dropped about 5.7% on Wednesday, November 26, closing at $469.87 after gapping down from a $498.13 close the prior day, even as major indices gained around 1%. [5]
- Despite the drop, Wall Street is still broadly positive. MarketBeat data show a “Moderate Buy” consensus, with an average 12‑month price target near $520 and institutional ownership around 69%. [6]
- Big money is active on both sides. ARK Invest bought roughly 30,500 Deere shares (about $15 million) on November 26 after the sell‑off, while CEO John May sold 11,106 shares around $500 as part of an option exercise but remains a large shareholder. [7]
With U.S. markets closed today (Thursday, November 27) for Thanksgiving and reopening on a shortened Black Friday session that ends at 1 p.m. ET, Deere investors are digesting all of this ahead of the next trading day on November 28, 2025. [8]
Below is a detailed look at what just happened and what could matter for DE stock when the bell rings tomorrow.
Where Deere stock stands going into the November 28 open
As of the latest available prices:
- Last regular close (Wed, Nov 26): $469.87
- Move on the day: –5.67%, on volume of about 5.5 million shares
- Intraday range: roughly $469.4 – $487.8
- Last reported after‑hours price: about $470.00
- 52‑week range: approximately $403 – $534 [9]
The stock is now:
- Well below Tuesday’s close at $498.13, where it sat just before the Q4 report,
- But still in the upper half of its 52‑week trading range.
MarketBeat’s snapshot puts Deere’s market value near $132 billion, with a trailing P/E around 25, a PEG ratio of about 3.0, and a beta just over 1.0, indicating the shares tend to move broadly with the wider market but with a cyclical tilt. [10]
In other words, Deere is entering the holiday‑shortened Friday session as:
- A profitable, blue‑chip industrial name,
- In the middle of a downturn in its core large‑ag cycle,
- And facing a significant policy overhang from tariffs.
Q4 2025: Revenue beat, profit down
Headline numbers
For the quarter ended November 2, 2025, Deere reported: [11]
- Net income: $1.065 billion, down from $1.245 billion a year earlier
- Diluted EPS: $3.93 vs. $4.55 last year (about a 14% decline)
- Worldwide net sales & revenues: roughly $12.39 billion, up about 11% year over year
Several data providers show analyst EPS expectations ranging from roughly $3.83 to $3.96 per share, and revenue estimates near $9.8–$9.9 billion. Deere’s $3.93 EPS landed inside that earnings range, while revenue comfortably topped consensus. [12]
So the quarter was not a classic “miss and collapse” story:
- Sales were strong,
- Earnings were roughly in line to modestly ahead of most forecasts,
- But margins compressed, and that’s where investors focused.
Segment performance
Deere’s three main equipment segments all grew Q4 sales, but profitability was mixed: [13]
- Production & Precision Agriculture
- Q4 net sales: ≈$4.7 billion, up about 10% year over year.
- Profit was pressured by higher production costs and tariffs, even with better pricing and volumes.
- Small Agriculture & Turf
- Q4 net sales: ≈$2.45 billion, up roughly 7%.
- Operating profit declined as tariffs, warranty expense and costs outpaced shipment growth.
- Construction & Forestry
- Q4 net sales: ≈$3.38 billion, up around 27%.
- A clear bright spot, driven by stronger demand and higher volumes, though costs and tariffs also weighed.
Deere’s Financial Services unit added another positive: Q4 net income rose to about $293 million, up nearly 70% from the prior year. [14]
Full‑year 2025: The downshift is clear
For fiscal 2025 overall, Deere reported: [15]
- Net income: roughly $5.03 billion, down about 29% from 2024
- EPS:$18.50 vs. $25.62 a year earlier (about a 28% drop)
- Worldwide net sales & revenues: about $45.68 billion, down ~12%
Management described 2025 as a year of “challenges and uncertainty” but argued that structural improvements, cost actions and portfolio diversity helped Deere deliver what it considers its best results “for this point in the cycle.” [16]
The numbers support that narrative: solid profitability for a cyclical industrial, but clearly past the peak of the last up‑cycle in big farm equipment.
The real shock: Fiscal 2026 guidance and tariffs
Guidance that underwhelmed Wall Street
Deere’s 2026 outlook is what investors reacted to most strongly.
The company now expects: [17]
- Net income attributable to Deere & Company:
- $4.0 – $4.75 billion for fiscal 2026
- Net operating cash flow:
- $4.0 – $5.0 billion
That range implies:
- Up to a 20% profit decline from 2025 at the low end,
- And only mid‑single‑digit growth at the high end.
By comparison, analyst aggregates from several providers had been pointing to roughly $5.1–$5.3 billion in 2026 net income before the report. [18]
The gap between company guidance and Street expectations is a key reason DE shares sold off.
Tariffs: A bigger headwind in 2026
On the earnings call and in media interviews, Deere flagged a much larger tariff impact next year: [19]
- Pre‑tax tariff costs are expected to roughly double to about $1.2 billion in 2026,
- Up from nearly $600 million in 2025.
Those tariffs are tied to the latest round of U.S. trade actions, which have raised costs on imported components and materials used in Deere’s large farm equipment. Lower crop prices and higher input costs are already making farmers more cautious, pushing some toward rentals and used machinery instead of new, high‑ticket tractors and combines. [20]
“Bottom of the cycle” – but not yet
CEO John May has been explicit that Deere sees 2026 as the bottom of the large‑ag cycle, with pressure concentrated in its biggest, most profitable tractors and harvesters. [21]
The company’s segment outlook roughly lines up with that view: [22]
- Production & Precision Agriculture (large ag):
- Sales expected to fall 5–10% in fiscal 2026.
- Small Agriculture & Turf:
- Sales expected to rise around 10%.
- Construction & Forestry:
- Also forecast to grow by about 10%.
So Deere is telling investors:
Large, North American row‑crop equipment is still heading down,
while smaller ag and construction/forestry should help offset some of that drag.
Research firm CFRA, cited by Reuters, doesn’t expect a full recovery until fiscal 2027, underscoring how long management and analysts think this downturn could last. [23]
Market reaction: A gap‑down move on heavy volume
Price action around the earnings release
According to investing and exchange data: [24]
- Tuesday, Nov 25 close: $498.13
- Wednesday, Nov 26 open (post‑earnings): $477.13 (gap down)
- Wednesday intraday low: about $469.41
- Wednesday close: $469.87 (–5.67% on the day, with volume over 5 million shares)
MarketBeat notes that DE shares gapped down in the pre‑market, opened sharply lower and then traded down further, even though the quarter featured a revenue beat and broadly solid operations in non‑ag segments. [25]
AlphaSpread and other market‑news aggregators point out that this happened while the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq were each up roughly 1% ahead of the Thanksgiving break, highlighting how company‑specific the selling was. [26]
Where sentiment stands now
Despite the pullback, Deere is not being treated like a broken story by Wall Street:
- Consensus rating: “Moderate Buy”
- Analyst mix: about 1 strong buy, 13 buys, 10 holds, 1 sell
- Average 12‑month price target: ≈$519.85, implying upside from the ~$470 area
- Institutional ownership: ≈68–69% of shares outstanding [27]
Other sources estimate Deere’s year‑to‑date return in the mid‑teens percentage range, roughly inline with or modestly ahead of the S&P 500, even after this week’s pullback. [28]
In short, the stock has had a good year into earnings, and the sell‑off looks more like a reset on expectations than a wholesale abandonment of the name.
Big money moves: ARK buying the dip, insider activity
ARK Invest steps in
A fresh angle heading into the November 28 open: Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest.
CoinCentral reports that on November 26, ARK: [29]
- Sold about 27,100 Tesla shares (~$11.4 million)
- Bought roughly 30,518 Deere shares, valued around $15 million,
- And also added about $15.8 million in Coinbase.
The Deere purchase was spread across ARK’s autonomous technology and space‑focused ETFs, reflecting the firm’s view of Deere as a technology‑driven industrial with exposure to automation, precision agriculture and AI‑enabled equipment.
While ARK’s strategy is high‑beta and not a traditional benchmark for value investors, many traders will note that a high‑profile active manager used the post‑earnings weakness to increase exposure.
CEO John May’s stock sale
On the insider side, Investing.com highlights that on November 25: [30]
- Chairman and CEO John C. May II
- Sold 11,106 shares at prices between $500.00 and $500.47, for proceeds of about $5.55 million.
- Exercised options to buy the same number of shares at $254.83, worth about $2.83 million.
- After these moves he still directly owns more than 112,000 shares, plus additional indirect holdings.
Insider sales can happen for many reasons — including diversification, taxes, or pre‑planned trading programs — so they don’t automatically signal a negative view. Still, in the context of tariff uncertainty and a lower profit outlook, some investors may watch upcoming SEC filings closely for any pattern of further executive selling.
What to watch for DE stock before the November 28 open
With U.S. stock markets closed today for Thanksgiving and reopening for a short Black Friday session that ends at 1 p.m. ET, liquidity around the November 28 open will likely be thinner than normal. [31]
Here are the key issues likely to shape trading in Deere tomorrow:
1. Tariff headlines and trade policy
- Deere has quantified a $1.2 billion pre‑tax tariff headwind for 2026, double 2025’s impact. [32]
- Any fresh news or political commentary around U.S. trade policy with major trading partners could influence sentiment toward all tariff‑sensitive industrials, including DE.
Traders will be watching for:
- Policy hints from Washington,
- International responses, and
- How other tariff‑exposed names (machinery, autos, steel) trade into and during the Friday session.
2. The large‑ag cycle narrative
Deere is effectively saying:
- “We’re not at the bottom yet, but 2026 should be it.” [33]
Key things investors may focus on:
- Updates on crop prices and farm incomes,
- Commentary from peer ag companies,
- Any early signs that farmers are resuming orders for new large equipment versus relying on rentals and used units. [34]
If the market starts to believe that the cycle’s trough is indeed in sight—and that small ag & construction can carry more of the load—sentiment around DE could stabilize even without near‑term earnings growth.
3. Segment mix and margin expectations
Investors will also be digesting how Deere’s segment mix evolves:
- A weaker but still profitable large‑ag franchise,
- Paired with growing Construction & Forestry and Small Ag & Turf businesses. [35]
Expect debates around:
- Whether high‑margin large ag remains too big a piece of the profit pie,
- How much margin leverage Deere can unlock via cost cuts and inventory management,
- And how quickly new technologies (autonomous tractors, precision tools, connected equipment) can support pricing power.
4. Analyst commentary and rating changes
So far, the Street’s stance remains constructive, but:
- Some analysts have already been trimming price targets ahead of and around this quarter. [36]
- New notes published between now and Friday’s open could influence pre‑market pricing, especially in a light‑volume, holiday‑affected session.
Watch for:
- Fresh revisions to earnings models for 2026–2027,
- Updated target prices and rating changes,
- And any change in tone on the length and depth of the large‑ag downturn.
5. Holiday‑session mechanics
Because Friday is a shortened trading day, with an early 1 p.m. ET close: [37]
- Pre‑market and after‑hours windows are compressed,
- Liquidity is often lower,
- And price swings can be exaggerated, especially for stocks coming off a major catalyst like earnings.
That means:
- Even relatively small incremental news on Deere — another analyst note, a tariff headline, or a sector move — could generate outsized intraday volatility.
- Some institutional investors may choose to wait until next week for bigger moves, while shorter‑term traders test the post‑earnings range during a lighter volume environment.
Bottom line
Heading into the November 28, 2025 open, Deere & Company (NYSE: DE) is a story of strong execution colliding with a tougher macro and policy backdrop:
- The company is still profitable and growing sales, especially in construction and smaller ag segments. [38]
- But guidance for 2026, a doubling of tariff costs, and a prolonged slump in large‑ag demand have forced investors to re‑price the stock’s near‑term earnings power. [39]
With ARK Invest buying the dip, a CEO exercising and selling shares, and Wall Street still sitting on a Moderate Buy consensus, DE remains very much in play as markets reopen after Thanksgiving. [40]
For traders and long‑term investors alike, Friday’s shortened session will be less about predicting a single day’s move and more about watching how the market re‑balances expectations around:
- The length of the agricultural downturn,
- The impact of tariffs, and
- Deere’s ability to pivot toward higher‑growth, tech‑enabled segments while riding out the cycle.
Disclosure & disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. It does not recommend any security, strategy, or course of action. Always do your own research and consider speaking with a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions.
References
1. s22.q4cdn.com, 2. s22.q4cdn.com, 3. www.rttnews.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.investing.com, 6. www.marketbeat.com, 7. coincentral.com, 8. m.economictimes.com, 9. www.investing.com, 10. www.marketbeat.com, 11. s22.q4cdn.com, 12. www.rttnews.com, 13. quadcitiesbusiness.com, 14. quadcitiesbusiness.com, 15. s22.q4cdn.com, 16. www.deere.ca, 17. www.rttnews.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.rttnews.com, 22. www.investopedia.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.investing.com, 25. www.marketbeat.com, 26. www.alphaspread.com, 27. www.marketbeat.com, 28. coincentral.com, 29. coincentral.com, 30. www.investing.com, 31. m.economictimes.com, 32. www.reuters.com, 33. www.rttnews.com, 34. www.reuters.com, 35. www.investopedia.com, 36. www.marketbeat.com, 37. m.economictimes.com, 38. quadcitiesbusiness.com, 39. www.reuters.com, 40. coincentral.com
