Diageo (DGE) Shares Slip as JP Morgan Slashes Target to 2,000p While India Arm Delivers Big ESG Win

Diageo plc (LSE: DGE) fell again on 26 November 2025 after JP Morgan cut its price target to 2,000p, even as Bernstein reiterated a Buy and Diageo India reported a 93% cut in emissions and 99% renewable energy use.

Diageo share price today: pressure resumes after profit warning

Diageo plc (LSE: DGE) spent most of Wednesday under pressure again, as investors continued to digest this month’s profit warning and a fresh round of broker moves.

At the London close on 26 November 2025, Hargreaves Lansdown data show Diageo shares changing hands around 1,709.5p, versus a previous close of 1,733.5p – a drop of 24p, or about 1.4% on the day. The stock traded in a narrow intraday range between roughly 1,702.5p and 1,721p, leaving the market value at about £38 billion. Over the past year, the shares have swung between a high of 2,619.5p and a low of 1,664.5p. ^[1]

That weakness echoed across the wider market. A TradingView market update noted that while the FTSE 100 ticked slightly higher ahead of the UK Budget, several blue‑chips weighed on the index, with Diageo slipping about 1.5% alongside Unilever and RELX. ^[2]

On fundamentals, Diageo now trades on a price/earnings ratio of about 13.9 and a historic dividend yield around 4.6%, according to the same Hargreaves Lansdown snapshot – materially below the richer multiples the premium-drinks group enjoyed in the late 2010s and early 2020s. ^[3]

In New York, Diageo’s ADRs (NYSE: DEO) were quoted near $91 early Wednesday, broadly in line with StockInvest’s latest data, which put the prior close at $91.17 and a projected “fair” opening price of $91.26 for 26 November. ^[4]

New broker calls today: JP Morgan cuts to 2,000p, Bernstein stays at 2,420p

The big fresh catalyst for Diageo on 26 November 2025 came from the analyst community. Two major brokers updated their views before the London open – and they didn’t quite agree.

JP Morgan
- Reiterated a Neutral stance on Diageo.
- Cut its price target from 2,500p to 2,000p, according to MarketScreener and a separate note picked up by StreetInsider. ^[5]
- Alliance News’ broker-wrap for the FTSE 100 lists Diageo among today’s movers, explicitly flagging “JPMorgan cuts Diageo price target to 2,000 (2,500) pence – ‘neutral’” in a long list of rating changes. ^[6]
Bernstein
- Reaffirmed its Buy rating on Diageo.
- Kept its price target unchanged at 2,420p. ^[7]

MarketScreener’s digest of both notes shows Diageo sitting between cautious and constructive views: JP Morgan highlighting earnings pressure and trimmed expectations, while Bernstein argues the long‑term story still justifies an upside case. ^[8]

Despite a flurry of downgrades since Diageo’s profit warning, broader consensus remains surprisingly resilient. Data compiled by ValueInvesting.io and based on 32 analyst ratings still points to an overall “BUY” consensus, with: ^[9]

Average 12‑month target price around 2,231p, implying roughly high‑20s percentage upside from recent levels.
A mix of recommendations: 0 strong sell, 3 sell, 9 hold, 11 buy and 9 strong buy.

The broker split encapsulates investor debate: is Diageo now a value opportunity after a 2025 derating, or are structural headwinds in its key markets only just starting to bite?

Backdrop: profit warning and Q1 F26 trading statement

Today’s analyst moves can’t be understood without the 6 November 2025 trading update that knocked Diageo to its lowest levels in about a decade.

In its Fiscal 26 Q1 trading statement, Diageo reported: ^[10]

Reported net sales down 2.2% year‑on‑year to $4.9bn.
Organic net sales flat (0%), with:
- Volume +2.9%,
- But price/mix –2.8%, as weaker Chinese white spirits skewed the mix.
Solid organic growth in Europe, Latin America & Caribbean and Africa offset by:
- Weakness in Chinese white spirits dragging on Asia Pacific, and
- A softer US consumer environment, particularly in US spirits.

Diageo also cut its full‑year outlook, guiding to flat or slightly lower sales in Fiscal 26 with only low‑ to mid‑single‑digit operating profit growth as the company adapts to slower demand and mix pressure. ^[11]

Reuters reported that the downgrade sent Diageo shares down more than 5% on the day, compounding an almost 30% year‑to‑date decline and dragging the stock back to price levels last seen in 2015. Interim CEO Nik Jhangiani described the performance as “unsatisfactory” and pointed to stubbornly weak demand in the US and China as key drags. ^[12]

Management is leaning heavily on its “Accelerate” cost‑saving programme, which aims to deliver around $625m of savings over three years, while still protecting brand investment. Diageo reiterated its target to generate about $3bn of free cash flow in Fiscal 26 and to bring leverage back within a 2.5x–3.0x net‑debt‑to‑EBITDA range by Fiscal 28, helped by selective disposals. ^[13]

Leadership reset: Sir Dave Lewis to take over as CEO in January

Amid the trading disappointment, Diageo has been trying to reset investor expectations with a leadership change at the top.

On 10 November 2025, the group announced that Sir Dave Lewis, the former Tesco chief executive and long‑time Unilever executive, has been appointed as Diageo’s new CEO, joining the board as an executive director and taking up the role on 1 January 2026. ^[14]

The appointment followed the abrupt July 2025 exit of former CEO Debra Crew, after which CFO Nik Jhangiani stepped in as interim chief executive just as Diageo faced slowing demand and tariff uncertainty in some markets. ^[15]

Lewis arrives with a reputation for tough, operationally focused turnarounds from his tenure at Tesco. A recent report in The Times highlighted that he will retain a non‑operational role at a sustainability consultancy co‑founded with his wife, with Diageo saying it does not view this as a conflict of interest. The article also indicated a base salary around £1.5m plus incentives, underscoring the scale of expectations attached to the new hire. ^[16]

Alongside the CEO news, investors have also been digesting board‑level finance changes: Diageo has announced CFO transitions as part of its reshaping of the leadership team, adding another moving part to the investment case. ^[17]

Dividends and upcoming catalysts

Despite earnings pressure, Diageo has continued to emphasise cash returns to shareholders.

On 20 November 2025, the company confirmed the sterling equivalent of its Final 2025 dividend at 47.91p per ordinary share, based on an original declaration of 62.98 US cents and an FX rate of $1 = £0.76072. The dividend is scheduled for payment on 4 December 2025. ^[18]

Diageo’s own financial calendar lists two near‑term events investors will be watching: ^[19]

4 December 2025 – Final dividend 2025 payment date.
25 February 2026 – Interim results for the six months ending 31 December 2025.

With the stock now yielding around 4.6%, the market will be scrutinising whether the new CEO can protect the dividend in real terms while still funding brand investment and deleveraging. ^[20]

ESG spotlight today: Diageo India’s United Spirits slashes emissions

While the UK‑listed parent wrestled with profit guidance and broker downgrades, Diageo India (United Spirits Ltd) provided one of today’s more positive headlines for the group’s long‑term ESG narrative.

Multiple Indian business outlets, including The Economic Times and Business Standard, reported on 26 November 2025 that United Spirits’ latest ESG index shows: ^[21]

A 93% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions since 2020.
99% of energy now sourced from renewables, beating the company’s own 2030 renewable‑energy goal ahead of schedule.
A 54% improvement in water‑use efficiency at distilleries and 35% at packaging sites, with around 182,000 cubic metres of water replenished in FY25 and 1.1 million cubic metres (11 lakh) since 2020.
Coal fully phased out in 2022, operations now at zero waste to landfill and 99% recyclable packaging.
Progress on inclusion: women now account for 28% of executives, 30% of the leadership team and 50% of the executive committee.
Community and skills initiatives that have trained roughly 1,900+ people (two‑thirds women), supported 430 smallholder farmers in regenerative agriculture, and educated hundreds of thousands of young people on responsible drinking.

United Spirits’ Chief Supply and Sustainability Officer Jitendra Mahajan framed the agenda as building a business that “grows responsibly, leads with integrity and creates long‑term value” – language that dovetails neatly with Diageo’s global sustainability positioning. ^[22]

For Diageo plc investors, the update reinforces two points:

Emerging markets, especially India, remain strategically critical to the group’s long‑term growth and premiumisation plans.
The company’s ESG credentials may continue to matter for fund flows and valuation multiples, particularly among global investors with sustainability mandates.

How the investment case looks after today

Putting all of today’s moving parts together, the Diageo story on 26 November 2025 looks like this:

Share price
- Around 1,709.5p in London, down roughly 1.4% today and still well below levels seen before the November profit warning. ^[23]
Earnings and guidance
- Q1 F26 showed flat organic net sales, with volume growth offset by negative price/mix, and management now expects flat or slightly declining full‑year sales with only modest profit growth. ^[24]
Brokers
- JP Morgan has now cut its target to 2,000p (Neutral), reflecting cautious expectations.
- Bernstein still sees value with a 2,420p target (Buy).
- Consensus data still point to an overall BUY recommendation and an average target above 2,200p, implying meaningful potential upside if Diageo can stabilise margins and re‑accelerate growth. ^[25]
Structural challenges
- Demand in US spirits and Chinese high‑end categories remains soft, price/mix is under pressure, and investors are wary of how much more cost cutting can be done without harming Diageo’s premium brands. ^[26]
Offsets and positives
- A high single‑digit to mid‑teens dividend yield is not on offer, but a roughly mid‑single‑digit yield from a global drinks portfolio remains attractive to many income‑focused investors. ^[27]
- The appointment of Dave Lewis in January is widely seen as a potential catalyst for a sharper operational turnaround. ^[28]
- The strong ESG performance in India bolsters the long‑term sustainability and licence‑to‑operate story, especially in water‑stressed regions. ^[29]

In short, 26 November 2025 is another day where Diageo finds itself pulled in two directions: short‑term earnings downgrades and cautious price targets on one side, long‑term brand, ESG and leadership positives on the other.

For investors, the key questions over the coming months will be:

Can Dave Lewis translate his turnaround record into sustained volume and pricing power in Diageo’s biggest markets?
Will management’s $3bn free‑cash‑flow target for Fiscal 26 hold up if macro conditions worsen? ^[30]
And can the group maintain its progressive dividend policy without compromising necessary investment in brands, sustainability and innovation? ^[31]

As always, this article is for information only and does not constitute investment advice. Anyone considering buying or selling Diageo (DGE / DEO) should do their own research and consider speaking to a regulated financial adviser.