Published December 1, 2025
Dominion Energy (NYSE: D) has suddenly become one of the most closely watched U.S. utilities. Its shares are trading near a 52‑week high, its flagship offshore wind project is two‑thirds complete, and the company has just secured fresh regulatory approvals and a major new institutional backer.
In the past week alone:
- Barron’s highlighted Dominion as a “utility play with AI upside,” arguing that its combination of offshore wind and data‑center growth could drive above‑average earnings. [1]
- Simply Wall St/DredgeWire stressed how progress at the Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind (CVOW) project could reshape the long‑term investment story. [2]
- MarketBeat flagged a new 52‑week high around $62.60 and reported that Norway’s sovereign wealth fund, Norges Bank, has taken a roughly $567 million stake, giving it about 1.2% of the company. [3]
At the same time, Virginia regulators have approved smaller‑than‑requested rate hikes and a new rate class for power‑hungry data centers, decisions that will shape Dominion’s earnings and customer bills for years. [4]
Here’s how the latest news, forecasts and analysis fit together for investors watching Dominion Energy on December 1, 2025.
Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind: 66% Complete and On Track for 2026
Dominion’s investment narrative increasingly revolves around Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind (CVOW), billed as the largest offshore wind project in the United States. [5]
Key project facts:
- Capacity: 2.6 gigawatts (GW)
- Turbines: 176 utility‑scale machines located roughly 27 miles off Virginia Beach
- Customers served: Up to about 660,000 customers at peak output
- Climate impact: Expected to avoid millions of tons of CO₂ annually once fully operational
- Timeline: Full commercial operation targeted by end‑2026 [6]
Over the past month, multiple sources — including OffshoreWind.biz, Utility Dive and technical project partners — have confirmed that CVOW is now about 66% complete, with offshore turbine installation ramping up and first power expected in early 2026. [7]
A new analysis published via Simply Wall St and picked up by DredgeWire on December 1, 2025, underscores why this milestone matters: it demonstrates tangible progress on a project that is central to Dominion’s grid‑modernization and clean‑energy strategy, while also potentially expanding capacity for energy‑hungry data centers in Virginia. [8]
Barron’s notes that recent legal wins for other offshore wind projects make it increasingly likely that CVOW will be completed, framing it as a key test of whether U.S. offshore wind can thrive despite political resistance and cost inflation. [9]
AI and Data Centers: Why Dominion Is Spending More Than $50 Billion
Beyond offshore wind, the second pillar of the Dominion thesis is the explosive power demand from data centers, particularly those serving artificial intelligence, cloud computing and crypto workloads.
Earlier this year, Dominion raised its 2025‑2029 capital‑expenditure plan to about $50.1 billion, up from roughly $43.2 billion previously, explicitly citing the surge in projected demand from data centers across its territory. [10]
On its latest earnings calls and in regulatory filings, the company has emphasized that it is:
- Building new generation capacity (including CVOW and gas peakers)
- Expanding transmission and distribution lines
- Reinforcing the grid to serve what CEO Bob Blue described as “Big Tech’s server warehouses” under a massive $50 billion investment plan through 2029. [11]
External analysts are quantifying just how large this opportunity may be:
- A recent Citigroup forecast projects that global AI infrastructure spending by big tech could reach $2.8 trillion by 2029, requiring around 55 GW of additional power capacity worldwide by 2030, with roughly half the spending in the U.S. alone. [12]
- A Latitude Media analysis of Q3 results called Dominion a “bellwether for the data center market,” estimating roughly 47.1 GW of contracted data‑center capacity, with nearly 10 GW already under take‑or‑pay electric service agreements and another sizeable tranche under construction letters of authorization. [13]
This boom is not without complications. The Financial Times recently spotlighted “phantom” data centers that inflate utilities’ demand forecasts — projects that may never be built. In response, Dominion and other utilities are tightening rules, with Dominion demanding long‑term contracts to reduce the risk of overbuilding. [14]
Taken together, Dominion is positioning itself as a critical infrastructure provider for the AI era, but must thread the needle between under‑ and over‑building in a rapidly evolving market.
Earnings, Guidance and Dividend: What 2025 Looks Like
Financially, 2025 has been a year of steady, if unspectacular, execution.
Strong 2025 Earnings So Far
- Q1 2025: Dominion beat expectations with revenue of about $4.08 billion (vs. $3.97 billion consensus) and adjusted EPS of $0.93, ahead of Wall Street’s ~$0.75 estimate, helped by robust demand in Virginia and South Carolina. The company reaffirmed full‑year operating earnings guidance of roughly $3.28–$3.52 per share. [15]
- Q3 2025: Operating earnings rose to $1.06 per share, up from $0.98 in the same quarter a year earlier, on operating earnings of $921 million vs. $836 million in 2024. Revenue climbed to around $4.53 billion, up nearly 15% year‑over‑year. [16]
In its October 31 release, Dominion narrowed its 2025 operating EPS guidance to $3.33–$3.48 per share, maintaining a midpoint of $3.40 and reiterating a 5–7% long‑term operating EPS growth target through 2029. [17]
Dividend Remains a Central Part of the Story
Income‑oriented investors continue to focus on Dominion’s dividend:
- The company recently declared a quarterly dividend of $0.6675 per share, or $2.67 annually, implying a yield of roughly 4.3% at current prices. [18]
- MarketBeat and regulatory filings put the payout ratio near 91% of current‑year earnings, leaving less room for aggressive hikes until earnings grow. [19]
Dominion has kept the dividend flat while it digests its multi‑year capital plan and completes asset sales from its earlier “business review” process. As offshore wind and new gas capacity come online, investors will be watching for signs of future dividend growth.
Stock Performance and Valuation: Near Highs, Still Mixed Opinions
After several years of underperformance, Dominion’s share price has finally broken out.
- Over the past 12 months, the stock has rallied from a 52‑week low near $48 to a recent high around $62.87, a gain of more than 30% from the trough. [20]
- MarketBeat reported that the stock hit a new 52‑week high of about $62.63 on November 27, 2025, before settling just below that level. [21]
- Several tracking services show the shares trading around the $62–63 range in late November and early December, putting them very close to their recent high. [22]
Yet valuation opinions remain split:
- Wall Street consensus: MarketBeat’s aggregation shows an average rating of “Hold”, with roughly 2–3 Buys, 8–9 Holds and 1 Sell, and an average price target near $64.22—only a few percent above the current price. [23]
- Simply Wall St / valuation screens: A widely cited Simply Wall St analysis pegs Dominion’s fair value around $64, implying modest upside from current levels. To get there, their base case assumes revenue rising to about $17.8 billion and earnings to $3.6 billion by 2028, implying roughly 5% annual revenue growth from today’s levels. [24]
- Barron’s technical view: Barron’s argues the stock is “cheap” after years of negative returns, noting that it has fallen about 23% over the last five years while a major utilities ETF gained about 41%. The publication highlights a bullish technical pattern and suggests the shares could plausibly approach $80 by mid‑2026 if earnings and sentiment stay on track. [25]
In short, fundamental models and Wall Street targets cluster in the mid‑$60s, while at least one high‑profile research outlet sees a scenario for more substantial upside if Dominion executes flawlessly on both AI‑driven demand and offshore wind.
Big Money Is Moving In: Norges Bank and Other Institutions
One of the biggest headlines on December 1 is that Norges Bank, which manages Norway’s trillion‑dollar sovereign wealth fund, has opened a significant position in Dominion.
According to a MarketBeat summary of its latest 13F filing:
- Norges Bank acquired 10,030,498 shares, valued at about $566.9 million,
- representing roughly 1.18% of Dominion’s outstanding shares. [26]
The same filing round‑up noted that other heavyweights have been adding to positions:
- Vanguard Group increased its stake by over 16% in the recent quarter, to more than 105 million shares,
- Firms including Wellington Management, Nuveen, AQR and Price T Rowe also boosted or initiated positions. [27]
Depending on the source and cutoff date, estimates of institutional ownership range from roughly 70% to the mid‑80% range of shares outstanding, underscoring that Dominion is very tightly held by professional investors. [28]
For retail investors, that level of institutional ownership can cut both ways: it may suggest confidence in the long‑term story, but it can also mean the stock’s fate is heavily tied to the shifting views of large funds.
Regulators Approve Smaller Rate Hikes and a New Gas Plant
While Wall Street focuses on growth, state regulators are reshaping Dominion’s near‑term earnings profile.
Smaller‑Than‑Requested Rate Increases
In late November, the Virginia State Corporation Commission (SCC) issued an order on Dominion Energy Virginia’s biennial review and base‑rate case:
- Dominion had asked for rate increases that would raise typical residential bills by about 15% over two years. [29]
- The SCC instead approved smaller hikes, roughly 9% over two years, which local media estimate will add about $11 per month to an average residential bill starting in 2026. [30]
- The approved plan will allow Dominion to earn about $565.7 million in additional revenue in 2026 and $209.9 million in 2027, down from its original request for $822 million and $345 million respectively. [31]
- Regulators set an allowed return on equity (ROE) of 9.8%, below the 10.4% Dominion had sought. [32]
At the same time, the SCC approved a new rate class for large‑load customers like data centers, aimed at making sure those users shoulder a greater share of the infrastructure costs they drive. [33]
Chesterfield Gas Plant Approved
In a separate but related decision, the SCC also signed off on the Chesterfield Energy Reliability Center, a 944‑MW natural‑gas peaker plant at the site of a retired coal station near Richmond:
- The plant is projected to cost about $1.47 billion, with a dedicated “CERC Rider” on customer bills to recover costs.
- Construction is expected to begin in 2026 and wrap up around 2029. [34]
The approvals reinforce Dominion’s ability to earn regulated returns on a growing rate base—but also expose it to criticism from environmental groups who argue the company is locking in new fossil‑fuel infrastructure even as it touts offshore wind and net‑zero goals.
Building a Smarter Grid: Virtual Power Plant and Demand‑Side Programs
In addition to big projects and traditional rate cases, Dominion is also experimenting with distributed energy and demand‑response.
On its website, the company outlines a Virtual Power Plant (VPP) pilot timeline in Virginia:
- December 1, 2025: Dominion plans to file for a VPP pilot,
- Through August 2026: regulators review new programs and the company refines existing demand‑side efforts,
- 2026–2027: ramp‑up and launch of VPP programs, subject to regulatory approval. [35]
The VPP pilot and related demand‑side management programs in South Carolina are intended to shave peak demand, integrate rooftop solar and batteries, and support grid reliability alongside large projects like CVOW. [36]
For investors, these initiatives are smaller in dollar terms than offshore wind or gas plants, but they matter because regulators increasingly expect utilities to exhaust efficiency and distributed options before green‑lighting large new generation projects.
Key Risks: Policy, Cost Inflation and Execution
Despite all the optimism, the recent analyses are clear: Dominion still faces meaningful risks.
- Offshore wind execution and cost recovery
- Dominion has already taken hundreds of millions of dollars in charges tied to non‑recoverable CVOW costs in earlier periods. [37]
- Any further cost escalation, construction delays, or disputes over how expenses are recovered in rates could pressure margins and lead to more regulatory battles.
- Political and regulatory headwinds
- Offshore wind has become a political flashpoint. Prior Barron’s coverage and other commentary frame CVOW as a test case for whether large offshore wind projects can survive under a more hostile federal administration. [38]
- State regulators just demonstrated a willingness to trim Dominion’s rate requests and allowed ROE, showing they are sensitive to bill impacts and not simply rubber‑stamping utility proposals. [39]
- Data‑center demand uncertainty
- While AI and cloud workloads are booming, the FT’s reporting on “phantom” data centers highlights the risk that project pipelines may overstate real demand, potentially leading to over‑investment in infrastructure. [40]
- Dominion’s tighter contract rules and new rate class for large users are attempts to manage this risk, but the long‑term trajectory of power demand remains difficult to forecast.
- Balance sheet and payout policy
- With a leverage ratio north of 1.3x debt‑to‑equity and a high payout ratio, Dominion has less financial flexibility than some peers to absorb shocks or accelerate dividend growth without strong earnings expansion. [41]
What to Watch in 2026
As of December 1, 2025, the latest wave of news, forecasts and analysis suggests that Dominion is transitioning from a turnaround story to an execution story.
Over the next 12–18 months, investors and analysts are likely to focus on:
- CVOW milestones: Turbine installation pace, first power in early 2026, and any updates to total project cost or schedule. [42]
- Data‑center contracts: How quickly contracted capacity converts into actual load, and whether Dominion adjusts its $50.1 billion capital plan again. [43]
- Regulatory follow‑through: Implementation of new rate structures, the impact of the data‑center rate class on margins, and any further SCC proceedings around reliability and resource adequacy. [44]
- Earnings versus guidance: Whether operating EPS tracks toward the $3.33–$3.48 range in 2025 and aligns with the 5–7% growth target thereafter. [45]
- Institutional flows: Additional moves by large asset managers and sovereign funds following Norges Bank’s entry. [46]
For now, the consensus view is that Dominion offers steady regulated earnings, a solid dividend, and exposure to two of the biggest structural themes in energy: offshore wind and AI‑driven power demand—but with limited short‑term upside from current prices and a still‑meaningful set of execution and policy risks.
As always, this article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Anyone considering Dominion Energy stock should evaluate their own risk tolerance, investment horizon and financial situation, and consult a qualified advisor if needed.
References
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