U.S. equity futures rose Monday after a procedural Senate vote advanced a funding bill that could reopen the federal government as soon as this week. The rebound followed last week’s tech-led selloff, with AI and semiconductor names leading premarket gains. Global stocks rallied, Treasury yields climbed, and volatility eased. [1]
What changed in Washington — and why markets care
Late Sunday, the Senate advanced a House-passed measure that lawmakers plan to amend to fund the government through January 30 alongside three full‑year appropriations bills. The package would still need final Senate passage, approval by the House, and President Donald Trump’s signature, a process that could take days but signals real momentum toward ending the record 40‑day shutdown. Markets read the step as a credible path to re‑opening, releasing some of last week’s risk aversion. [2]
Some reporting indicates the compromise legislation includes back pay for furloughed workers and halts further layoffs through January, additional elements that would help normalize operations and sentiment once government reopens. [3]
Markets at a glance (premarket, Monday)
- Futures: Dow +0.45%, S&P 500 +0.97%, Nasdaq 100 +1.49%.
- Volatility: The VIX eased to around 18.6, down from last week’s highs.
- Bonds & FX: Long‑duration Treasury yields moved higher; investors are again weighing the path of Fed policy into December. [4]
Tech and the AI trade lead the rebound
After a bruising week for richly valued tech, AI‑linked leaders and chipmakers paced Monday’s bounce. Nvidia rose about 3% premarket, while Alphabet and Meta advanced roughly 2% and 2%, respectively. Qualcomm, Intel, Broadcom, and Micron also gained. The move reflects bargain‑hunting in quality growth and a bet that reopening the government and clearer Fed communication can stabilize liquidity — a backdrop supportive of AI‑driven productivity winners. [5]
The global picture: relief rally spreads
Relief over a likely end to the U.S. shutdown lifted equities worldwide. European stocks advanced, with regional benchmarks up around 1.5%–2%, while Asia saw broad gains led by Korea and Japan. Improving (or at least less‑negative) China inflation also helped tone, even as investors remain cautious about domestic demand. [6]
Macro cross‑currents to watch
- Rates: Long‑bond yields briefly touched the highest in over a month as risk appetite returned and the market digested another heavy week of U.S. debt issuance, starting with $58B in 3‑year notes today. [7]
- Policy path: Futures markets continue to price roughly two‑thirds odds of a Fed rate cut in December, but the shutdown‑induced data blackout complicates the picture and could amplify near‑term market noise as delayed releases trickle out. [8]
- Commodities & crypto:Gold and crude oil firmed alongside risk assets, and bitcoin also climbed during the global session. [9]
Movers to know before the bell
- Metsera (MTSR):–15% premarket after Pfizer clinched a $10B deal for the obesity‑drug developer, ending a bidding battle. Novo Nordisk rose in Europe on relief. [10]
- Health insurers:Centene and UnitedHealth traded lower after weekend comments from President Trump about redirecting ACA funds toward individuals. [11]
- AI & chips:Nvidia, Alphabet, Meta, Qualcomm, Intel, Broadcom, Micron — leading the tech rebound after last week’s valuation‑driven pullback. [12]
What’s next today
- Congressional timeline: Watch for final Senate action on the amended package, followed by the House and a potential White House signature. The process could take several days even with momentum. [13]
- Auctions & earnings: U.S. Treasury sells $58B 3‑year notes. Earnings highlights include Occidental Petroleum, Paramount Skydance, Tyson Foods, and Interpublic — all potential tone‑setters for sectors beyond megacap tech. [14]
Bottom line
A credible path to ending the longest U.S. shutdown on record has reset risk appetite to start the week. The relief rally is most visible in AI and chip stocks, while higher yields and a still‑cloudy data backdrop argue for ongoing volatility. If the reopening proceeds smoothly and the Fed underscores liquidity support, quality growth could remain leadership — but the next few sessions will hinge on the pace of Capitol Hill progress and the tone of delayed data once the spigot turns back on. [15]
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.theguardian.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com
