eBay Stock Surges on Strong Q3 Results but Cautions for Holiday Season

Stock Price Jump: eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY) shares have climbed sharply in 2025, reaching around $99.3 on Oct. 29, 2025 ^[1] (near a 52-week high of ~$101 ^[2]). The stock is up roughly 50–60% year-to-date, driven by enthusiasm over AI tools and strong consumer interest in collectibles ^[3].
Recent Movements: Over the past week, EBAY rose from the mid-$90s to nearly $100 ^[4]. On Oct. 29 it traded between $95.82 and $101.11 before closing at $99.33 ^[5]. In after-hours trading on Oct. 29, the stock dipped (~–5.6%) as investors reacted to eBay’s guidance ^[6] ^[7].
Q3 Results: eBay’s third-quarter 2025 results (released Oct. 29 after the market) beat expectations. Revenue was $2.82 billion (up 9% YoY) and GMV (gross merchandise volume) $20.1 billion (up 10%) ^[8]. Adjusted EPS was $1.36 (above the $1.33 consensus), and GAAP EPS $1.28 ^[9]. The company returned $757 million to shareholders via buybacks/dividends ^[10].
Guidance Softness: eBay’s outlook for Q4 disappointed investors. Management guided for Q4 adj. EPS of $1.31–$1.36 (vs. ~$1.39 expected) and revenue $2.83–$2.89 billion ^[11]. This “weaker profit outlook for the holiday period” led to caution, as reported by Bloomberg ^[12].
Analyst Targets: Many analysts remain bullish. For example, Morgan Stanley reiterated an Overweight rating and raised its 12-month target to $102 ^[13]. JMP Securities set an even higher target at $115 ^[14]. However, targets vary widely (Jefferies $65, Bernstein $95, etc.) ^[15], reflecting differing views on valuation.

Stock Price & Recent Performance

eBay’s share price has enjoyed a robust run-up. In late October 2025, EBAY traded just below its 52-week peak (about $101.15 ^[16]). On Oct. 29, the stock closed around $99.3, after hitting an intraday high above $101 ^[17]. Trading volume has been moderate (roughly 4–6 million shares/day). The stock is now roughly double its level from mid-2024 – up on the order of +50–60% year-to-date (2025) ^[18]. By comparison, broader tech indices like the Nasdaq-100 are up around +19% YTD ^[19], highlighting eBay’s strong relative gain.

Investors attribute the rally to renewed optimism about eBay’s growth drivers. The company’s focus on niche “collectibles” markets and AI-enhanced shopping tools has captured attention. As Bloomberg notes, eBay is “trying to embrace increased demand for used and refurbished items from shoppers eager to save money” ^[20] – tapping into consumer trends toward pre-owned goods. This “pre-loved” market appeal has given eBay a unique role as shoppers hunt bargains amid moderate inflation.

However, after eBay’s late-October earnings report, the stock showed some volatility. It opened slightly lower on Oct. 29 and traded on both sides of flat intraday. After-hours, it slid towards $94 as the market absorbed eBay’s cautious holiday guidance ^[21] ^[22]. Overall, the week of Oct. 25–29 saw the stock rise from roughly $95 to high-99s ^[23] before pulling back, reflecting mixed sentiment.

Q3 2025 Financial Results

On Oct. 29 (after market close), eBay reported its third-quarter 2025 earnings. The results showed solid growth:

Revenue: $2.82 billion, up ~9% YoY ^[24] (vs. the $2.73 billion that analysts had forecast ^[25]).
GMV: $20.1 billion, up ~10% ^[26], benefiting from higher prices and broadening categories.
Earnings: GAAP net income $597 million ($1.28/share), and adjusted net income $636 million ($1.36/share) ^[27]. Adjusted EPS of $1.36 slightly exceeded the ~$1.33 consensus.
Shareholder Returns: The company repurchased $625 million of stock and paid $132 million in dividends in Q3 (total $757 M) ^[28], underscoring its cash-generative business.

These figures topped Wall Street’s forecasts. MarketScreener/Reuters noted “Q3 revenue up 9% to $2.8 bln, beats estimates” ^[29], and similarly reported the EPS outperformance. Year-over-year, eBay has now delivered four consecutive quarters of positive GMV growth, aided by demand in collectibles (especially trading cards, comics and memorabilia) and refurbished electronics. The company’s active-buyer base is roughly 130–135 million globally (stagnant to modestly growing) ^[30], but each buyer is transacting more on average in key verticals.

Financially, eBay’s margins remain healthy; Q3 non-GAAP operating margin (~27%) was slightly above year-ago levels. The company’s balance sheet is strong with low debt, giving it flexibility for more share buybacks and strategic investments. Cash flow is robust: eBay generated significant free cash flow in 2025 (charging analysts project FCF rising from ~$1.4 billion now to ~$3.7 billion by 2029 ^[31]).

Growth Drivers

E-commerce analysts highlight eBay’s “focus categories” as growth engines. In Q2 (just ended June), focus-category GMV (collectibles, luxury goods, apparel) grew over 10% YoY ^[32]. Trading cards and pop-culture collectibles are especially strong, as eBay has improved grading services and expanded offerings for these buyers ^[33]. Management says these niches should continue momentum. Additionally, eBay’s new features (like AI-powered listing tools, its shopping agent feature, and expanded live-stream selling) aim to modernize the marketplace. The company’s recent acquisition of Norway’s Tise (a mobile C2C app) is intended to bolster its appeal to Gen Z social-commerce users.

In summary, Q3 results showed eBay continuing its steady rebound from 2022’s slowdown. Revenues and transaction volume are accelerating (9–10% growth), with earnings comfortably above forecasts. Key metrics (GMV, revenue, EPS) all beat expectations, underpinning the positive stock response pre-release.

Analyst Commentary & Forecasts

Wall Street’s response to eBay’s story is mixed but tilted positive. Analysts acknowledge eBay’s niche strengths but are cautious on margins and competition. Morgan Stanley analyst Nathan Feather reiterated an Overweight rating and raised his 12-month target to $102 (versus ~$99 current) ^[34]. Similarly, JMP Securities (Andrew Boone) issued a bullish target of $115 (on 10/24/2025) ^[35]. By contrast, Jefferies is more bearish (target ~$65) and others like Stifel and TD Cowen have targets in the mid-$80s ^[36] ^[37]. The median Wall Street target hovers in the low-$90s, implying limited upside.

Analysts generally expect eBay’s growth to continue but at a moderate pace. For full-year 2025, company guidance implies roughly flat-to-slow-growth in EPS after the strong first three quarters. The cautious Q4 outlook (for ~$1.33 EPS vs. $1.39 est) has analysts watching eBay’s margins on holiday discounting and promotions. Most Wall Street forecasts assume mid-single-digit revenue growth next year, with earnings in the $5.40–5.60 range per share in 2026, a modest increase over 2025.

Fears about a broader tech pullback have not dampened most analysts’ enthusiasm. A recent Yahoo Finance note notes that eBay’s consensus price target has inched up recently (from ~$89 to ~$91.50) on the better earnings trend ^[38]. Optimists point to eBay’s improving cash flow and its strategic focus on high-growth niches. The Simply Wall St community frames eBay as slightly undervalued: its fair-value DCF analysis suggests ~$143 intrinsic value (versus ~$100 stock price) based on 2029 cash flow, though this uses aggressive growth assumptions ^[39].

In short, analysts’ forecasts diverge widely but generally foresee continued modest growth. Even after its recent rise, eBay’s forward P/E (~19x) is lower than larger e-commerce peers. Some investors see further upside if the company can convert its robust cash flow into higher shareholder returns or accelerate GMV growth with new features.

Competition: Amazon, Etsy, Shopify and Others

In the crowded e-commerce space, eBay faces both the giants and the startups. Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), the $1.7+ trillion e-tail leader, casts a long shadow: Amazon’s growth now depends heavily on AWS/cloud and AI services, while its retail unit grows more slowly. By comparison, eBay remains focused on used/refurbished goods and peer-to-peer markets. Amazon typically trades in line with the broader “Magnificent Seven” tech rally (up ~20% YTD), whereas eBay’s niche strategy has won a premium valuation boost.

Etsy (NASDAQ: ETSY), another online marketplace, is a more direct peer in fashion and crafts. In late October, Etsy’s CEO Josh Silverman (a former eBay exec) announced his exit. Etsy’s Q3 results (reported Oct. 29) showed a revenue/earnings beat but a year-over-year decline in GMV, and its stock fell over 9% on the news ^[40]. Analysts noted that stiff competition from Amazon, Shopify, and lower-priced platforms (Temu, Shein) is pressuring smaller marketplaces ^[41]. This competitive backdrop underscores eBay’s challenge: while eBay has broader categories (electronics, collectibles) beyond Etsy’s crafts focus, it still competes for the same wallet share and seller resources.

Shopify (NYSE: SHOP) is a wildly different model (it powers merchants across the web) but its stock acts as a sentiment gauge for e-commerce. Shopify’s shares are up ~20% in 2025, reflecting strong small-business demand. Notably, in August 2025 Shopify warned of resilient demand amid tariffs – its stock jumped ~20% after the upbeat forecast ^[42]. Investors see Shopify’s success (and recent dominance of the Canadian market) as indicative of small-business ecommerce health. By contrast, eBay’s market cap (~$32 billion) is far smaller than Amazon or Shopify, but its focus on secondhand and collectable niches means it is less directly affected by swings in brand-name retail cycles.

Overall, eBay’s competitive position is mixed. Its marketplace model is unique (no inventory risk), but secular pressures (consumer spending levels, global trade policies) impact all players. Analysts often compare valuation multiples: eBay’s forward EV/EBITDA is roughly in line with traditional retail (around 8–10x), whereas Amazon trades at 30x+ thanks to AWS. This gap means any slowdown or miss at eBay can lead to sharper stock moves, even if its absolute growth rate is lower.

Market Sentiment & Macroeconomic Context

eBay’s stock has ridden the tailwind of a broader tech rally. Global stock markets hit fresh highs in late Oct 2025, powered by cooling inflation and Federal Reserve rate-cut expectations ^[43]. According to a market commentary, “the Fed is widely expected to ease policy further, boosting growth stocks” ^[44]. This “AI-fueled” optimism helped eBay outperform early in the year, as investors piled into internet and tech names on hopes of another jump in retail spending.

However, analysts caution that the rally may have speculative elements. Notably, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon has warned that parts of Big Tech are looking “bubble-like” ^[45]. While eBay is far smaller than Apple or Google, it still benefits from the same market ebullience (year-to-date Nasdaq gains). Investor sentiment around eBay is generally positive but not euphoric – the stock’s recent pullback on guidance shows traders are pricing in realistic growth limits.

Other macro factors are at play. Tariff policies have been in the spotlight: U.S. lawmakers ended the $800 “de minimis” exemption for imports ^[46], meaning small foreign packages now face customs duties. eBay management has said it is monitoring such changes. In fact, during Q2 2025, eBay’s CFO noted that the company’s guidance includes scenarios for tariffs and regulatory shifts ^[47]. Investors will watch if higher shipping costs or delays (already noted in earnings reports) start to dent sales.

Consumer spending trends also matter. So far in 2025, U.S. retail sales have remained healthy, and eBay’s user surveys indicate shoppers are still hunting deals. The holiday season will be a test: if consumer caution grows or if competitors (like Amazon’s 4Q sales, or Temu’s pricing wars) intensify, eBay’s growth could slow. Conversely, if inflation continues to ease and real incomes improve, eBay’s “discount-driven” model (refurbished electronics, collectible resales) may see extra tailwinds.

In sum, macro tailwinds (Fed easing, global growth) underpin market optimism, but headwinds (trade policy, competition) call for caution. Investors seem to be taking a wait-and-see approach into year-end, which is typical for a stock at this stage of its rally.

Conclusion

As of Oct. 29, 2025, eBay is in a strong technical position: the stock has climbed steadily on robust earnings and positive market sentiment. Q3 results validated the company’s growth narrative, and analysts generally expect eBay to keep growing modestly. However, the tempered guidance for Q4 reminds investors of the challenges ahead. The stock’s near-term trajectory will likely hinge on holiday sales data, macroeconomic updates, and any changes in the competitive landscape. For now, eBay remains an outperformer in the e-commerce sector, but one whose lofty valuation requires continued execution and favorable conditions to justify it. ^[48] ^[49]

Sources: eBay Q3 financial results ^[50], stock price history ^[51] ^[52], analyst reports ^[53] ^[54], and recent business news coverage ^[55] ^[56] ^[57] ^[58]. All information is as of Oct. 29, 2025.

Should Stock Market Investors Buy eBay Stock Right Now? | EBAY Stock Analysis

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