- Stock Price & Momentum: First Majestic Silver’s NYSE-listed shares recently traded around $10.57, down 8.5% on November 5, 2025 after its earnings release (52-week range: $5.09 – $15.69) [1] [2]. Despite the post-earnings dip, the stock has more than doubled in 2025, surging ~150–160% year-to-date amid a broader silver price rally [3]. Trading volumes spiked to about 12.8 million shares on earnings day, well above typical levels [4], reflecting heightened investor attention.
- Q3 2025 Record Results: The company posted record quarterly revenue of $285.1 million in Q3 2025 (up 95% year-on-year) [5], fueled by record silver output of 3.9 million ounces (+96% YoY) [6]. Net income swung to $43.0 million (EPS $0.06) from a $26.6 million loss a year ago [7], and free cash flow hit $98.8 million, a new high [8]. However, revenue came in below Wall Street’s ~$308 million expectation and adjusted EPS of $0.07 missed forecasts of $0.10 [9]. This earnings miss and cautious outlook (management provided no formal guidance) spurred a modest selloff in the stock.
- Operations & Costs: Q3 marked a third consecutive record revenue quarter for First Majestic [10]. The addition of the Los Gatos mine (acquired in early 2025) was transformative – Los Gatos contributed roughly 45% of the quarter’s revenue and helped boost overall silver-equivalent production to 7.7 million AgEq ounces [11] [12]. Importantly, the firm contained costs despite the output jump: all-in sustaining cost (AISC) edged down to $20.90/AgEq oz (versus $21.03 a year ago) [13] and cash costs dipped to $14.83/AgEq oz [14], aided by operational efficiencies at key Mexican mines.
- Financial Position: Buoyed by strong earnings and a rising silver price, First Majestic’s balance sheet strengthened significantly. The company ended Q3 with a record $568.8 million in total treasury (including $435.4M cash on hand) [15], bringing working capital to $542.4M [16]. This liquidity gives management flexibility to fund expansion and return capital – a modest cash dividend of $0.0052/share was declared for Q3 [17], and the firm renewed its share buyback program (NCIB) allowing repurchase of up to 24.5 million shares [18].
- Analyst Sentiment: Market analysts remain bullish on First Majestic. BMO Capital Markets upgraded the stock’s price target to C$21 (from C$18.50) after Q3 production beat its forecasts [19], citing “ongoing strong operational results” and successful integration of Los Gatos [20]. TD Securities likewise upgraded to a Buy, pointing to improving fundamentals from new mineral discoveries and mine expansions [21]. The average 12-month target price among analysts jumped to about $16.10 – ~26% above the latest trading price [22] – with price objectives ranging from ~$12.6 to $19.5/share. Roughly half of covering analysts now rate AG a “Buy” or equivalent [23]. That said, after this year’s rally the stock isn’t cheap: it trades around 43× forward earnings, a rich valuation reflecting high growth expectations [24].
- Macro Tailwinds:Silver prices have exploded to multi-year (even all-time) highs in 2025, providing a strong tailwind. Silver hit a record ~$54.5/oz in mid-October 2025 [25] – up over 60% year-to-date – riding the wave of gold’s bull run (gold broke above $4,000/oz) and surging investor demand for hard assets. Safe-haven flows amid global geopolitical tensions (wars in the Middle East and Ukraine) and a pivot to interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve have boosted precious metals across the board [26] [27]. First Majestic capitalized on this trend with an average realized silver-equivalent price of $39.03/oz in Q3 (31% higher YoY) [28]. However, management notes that volatility remains high – after peaking in October, silver saw some pullback to the high-$40s by early November [29], reminding investors that rapid price swings are “part and parcel” of the sector [30].
Stock Performance and Technical Trends
First Majestic’s stock has had a rollercoaster year, skyrocketing through 2025 alongside the price of silver. The share price climbed from the ~$5 level in January to a 52-week high of $15.69 by late October [31], vastly outperforming broader mining indices. This 158% year-to-date surge was propelled by optimism around the Los Gatos acquisition and leverage to silver’s historic rally [32].
Recent weeks have seen some consolidation. After the Q3 earnings miss in early November, AG pulled back roughly 20–30% from its peak, dipping into the low $10s [33]. Technical indicators reflect this cooling momentum: the stock broke below short-term moving averages in late October, and its 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has retreated from overbought levels (>70) earlier in the fall to more neutral readings now. Analysts note the trend remains positive long-term – the shares are still up ~65% year-on-year [34] – but in the near term the chart is digesting gains. Elevated volatility is also evident: in the past month, daily swings of 4–6% have been common, and the beta is ~1.4 indicating higher sensitivity to market moves [35].
From a valuation perspective, the stock’s run-up has stretched conventional metrics. At a ~$5.5 billion market capitalization (US$10–11 per share), First Majestic is priced at over 5× sales (trailing 12-month revenue ~$1 billion) and about 43 times projected 2024 earnings [36]. Such a high multiple suggests investors are betting on continued growth in production and silver prices. Indeed, the stock trades at a premium to many peer silver miners on price-to-book and EV/EBITDA bases, reflecting its high-growth narrative. Bulls argue that if silver stays elevated and the company hits its targets, earnings will “grow into” the valuation. Bears, however, caution that any stumble – e.g. a drop in silver or operational setbacks – could spark further correction given the rich pricing.
Q3 2025 Earnings Highlights – Record Revenue, Swing to Profit
First Majestic’s third quarter 2025 results showcased dramatic improvements driven by its recent acquisition and surging silver market. Revenue came in at $285.1 million, nearly double the $146.1M in the same quarter last year [37]. This marked the third straight record revenue quarter for the company, topping even Q2’s $264M. The top-line growth was powered by a 45% jump in silver-equivalent ounces sold and significantly higher realized metal prices [38]. Management highlighted two key drivers: the inclusion of the Los Gatos Silver Mine (added to the portfolio in January 2025) and operational improvements at the flagship San Dimas mine [39]. Los Gatos alone contributed over $108M in revenue in Q3, while San Dimas – one of the firm’s largest Mexican mines – increased output 27%, boosting its revenue to $71M [40] [41].
On the cost side, mine operating earnings ballooned to $99.1M in Q3, a sharp rise from $28.5M a year ago [42] [43]. The addition of Los Gatos (a low-cost, high-grade operation) was a major factor – it added ~$48M to mine operating profit [44] – alongside better grades and throughput at San Dimas. First Majestic managed to lower its unit costs slightly: Q3 all-in sustaining cost was $20.90 per silver-equivalent ounce (1% lower YoY) [45] and cash cost was $14.83/oz (2% lower) [46]. These cost improvements, combined with the higher volumes, led to strong margin expansion. EBITDA for the quarter reached $128.6M (+$91.7M YoY) [47], and operating cash flow (before working capital) was a robust $141.3M [48].
Critically, net income turned positive. First Majestic reported net earnings of $43.0 million (GAAP) [49], versus a $26.6M loss in Q3 2024. That equates to $0.06 per share in Q3, or $0.07 on an adjusted basis excluding certain non-cash items [50] [51]. This profit was achieved despite hefty investments in exploration and some one-time expenses. (Notably, the company mentioned an unrealized gain of $56.6M on its marketable securities portfolio that flowed through other comprehensive income [52], not the income statement.) Free cash flow hit a record $98.8M [53], enabling the firm to both reinvest in the business and reward shareholders modestly.
However, it wasn’t all perfect: the $285M revenue, while a record, missed analyst expectations (~$308M) [54]. Likewise, adjusted EPS of $0.07 fell short of the $0.10 consensus. These shortfalls suggest that analysts had anticipated even higher production or sales – a testament to the lofty bar set by silver’s rally. The company also withheld issuing updated forward guidance, which some investors found disappointing [55] [56]. In the Q3 release, CEO Keith Neumeyer struck an optimistic tone about the “record operational quarter” but provided limited specifics on Q4 or 2026 targets. This lack of guidance and the earnings miss contributed to the stock’s pullback on November 5th, despite the objectively strong results.
Production and Operational Developments
Production soared in 2025 thanks to both organic growth and acquisitions. In Q3, First Majestic produced 7.65 million silver-equivalent ounces (AgEq), up 39% year-on-year [57] [58]. Within that total was the record 3.86 million ounces of pure silver [59] [60] – an achievement underscored by Neumeyer as “our highest quarterly silver output ever”. Gold output was 35,681 oz in Q3 [61], a slight decline from last year due to the ongoing suspension of the Jerritt Canyon gold mine (which is under evaluation). The Los Gatos mine (Chihuahua, Mexico) was the star contributor: First Majestic acquired 70% of this mine by buying out Gatos Silver Inc. in early 2025, and it added 1.41M ounces of silver (attributable) in Q3 [62] [63]. Los Gatos also produces lead and zinc; on a silver-equivalent basis it contributed about 3.0M AgEq oz in Q3, in line with expectations [64]. Integration of this mine is “nearing completion” and has proceeded smoothly [65] – a big relief given some acquisitions can stumble.
The company’s legacy operations in Mexico also delivered solid results. San Dimas (Durango) – historically First Majestic’s flagship asset – saw a 27% YoY jump in silver-equivalent production, thanks to operational efficiencies and higher grades [66] [67]. San Dimas produced ~1.47M oz silver in Q3 [68], making it the largest single source of silver in the portfolio. The Santa Elena mine (Sonora), which produces silver and gold, contributed ~0.41M oz silver and strong gold output, generating $84.7M revenue [69]. Even the older La Encantada mine (an all-silver mine in Coahuila) chipped in ~0.58M oz silver [70], though it operates at smaller scale. With these four mines, First Majestic is on track to achieve its 2025 production guidance, which was raised by 7% in mid-year as Los Gatos came online [71]. By the end of Q3, the company had already produced about 73% of its full-year target output, implying it should meet or slightly exceed guidance barring any Q4 hiccups [72].
Beyond pure production numbers, operational improvements have been noteworthy. The company reported that processing throughput reached just under 1.0 million tonnes milled in Q3 [73] – a 47% jump versus Q3 last year – reflecting plant upgrades and high utilization at the mines. Metallurgical recoveries and grades have also improved at several operations, contributing to the cost declines. Management credited “continued operational improvements at San Dimas” for that mine’s higher output and much better cost profile (San Dimas’s unit cost per tonne fell ~7% YoY) [74] [75]. Additionally, First Majestic’s in-house mint, First Mint LLC, had a record quarter – generating $11.1M in revenue by processing some of the company’s silver into coins, bars and medallions for sale [76]. This downstream venture, unique among mining firms, helps capture extra margin on a portion of production and saw sales quadruple year-on-year in Q3 as retail investor demand for physical silver coins surged.
The only soft spot operationally has been the Jerritt Canyon project in Nevada. Acquired in 2021 as First Majestic’s entry into U.S. gold mining, Jerritt Canyon struggled with high costs and was placed on temporary suspension in 2023. In Q3 2025, the site remained on care-and-maintenance with no gold output, but importantly the company commenced new drilling programs at Jerritt Canyon to explore and expand resources [77]. This indicates First Majestic’s commitment to eventually restarting production there once economics improve. In the meantime, the firm took advantage of its strong cash flow to invest in exploration across its portfolio: exploration and development spending in Q3 totaled $52M [78], funding mine-life extension efforts at San Dimas, Santa Elena and Los Gatos. Management noted that reinvesting part of the free cash flow in growth initiatives is critical to “improve resource confidence, extend mine life, and boost throughput” over the long run [79]. Early results are encouraging – for example, recent drilling at Los Gatos intersected multiple zones of high-grade silver and base metals, suggesting potential to expand that mine’s reserves [80]. Likewise, at San Dimas, exploration in the Elia and Sinaloa vein systems hit promising high-grade silver-gold mineralization [81], which could support higher output in future years. These findings underscore that First Majestic’s growth story is not only about higher metal prices but also about organic resource growth at its operations.
Analyst Commentary and Market Outlook
Wall Street and industry experts have taken notice of First Majestic’s resurgence. After the Q3 production report in October, a wave of analyst upgrades and price target hikes rolled in. BMO Capital Markets, for instance, maintained a Market Perform rating but raised its target price to C$21 (~US$15) from C$18.50 [82]. BMO’s analysts noted First Majestic’s “ongoing strong operational results” and the fact that production matched their forecasts in Q3 [83] – validating the company’s revised guidance. They also pointed to the successful integration of Los Gatos and operational turnarounds at the Mexican mines as justification for the higher target [84]. Similarly, TD Securities (Cowen) upgraded the stock to Buy from Hold, praising the improved outlook thanks to “new discoveries and planned expansions at Santa Elena and Los Gatos” [85]. Even traditionally conservative analysts are more bullish: H.C. Wainwright reiterated a Buy and raised its target to $14 [86] after touring the Santa Elena mine and First Mint facility, highlighting the firm’s unique vertical integration.
Consensus figures reflect this optimism. As of late October, the average one-year price target was ~$16.10, which represents roughly 26–30% upside from the current price [87] [88]. The range of estimates among analysts spans from about $12.50 at the low end to $19.50 at the high end [89], indicating broadly positive sentiment. It’s worth noting that these targets climbed significantly in recent months – the ~$16 average is 48% higher than the average target just one quarter ago [90]. In other words, as First Majestic’s stock price and performance improved, analysts raised their expectations in tandem.
Several analysts have commented on valuation and risks. With the stock’s forward P/E above 40x, there is an acknowledgement that investors are “paying up” for growth [91]. Finimize’s newsroom noted that at 43× next year’s earnings, First Majestic’s valuation “signals investors are paying for hoped-for growth, despite a lack of forward guidance” [92]. They also mention that more than half of analysts still rate it a Buy, implying confidence that growth will indeed materialize [93]. The bullish thesis rests on a few pillars: continued high silver prices, execution on ramping Los Gatos to full potential, and the company’s ability to translate record revenues into expanding profit margins (something it started to demonstrate in Q3). On that front, the gross margin hit ~44.8% in Q3 [94], a healthy level for a miner and evidence of improved cost control. If margins keep improving and silver stays strong, earnings could accelerate, making the current P/E appear more reasonable.
On the flip side, macroeconomic or operational setbacks remain as key risks highlighted by analysts. A number of research notes cautioned that First Majestic’s fortunes are still tightly linked to the volatile silver market. For instance, Investing.com observed the stock is trading above its calculated fair value given current earnings, and flagged the extremely high trailing P/E (over 300× based on the past 12 months) [95]. This underlines that the recent profitability is still nascent – the company only swung to positive earnings this year after prior losses. Any pullback in silver prices could quickly squeeze margins again. Additionally, some analysts have pointed out the lack of guidance as an uncertainty factor [96] [97]. The company chose not to issue formal guidance for Q4 or update full-year guidance beyond what was raised in mid-year, which could imply caution about cost inflation or grade variability. There are also jurisdictional and regulatory risks (e.g. Mexico’s evolving mining laws and a pending tax dispute case, as noted in the earnings release fine print [98]). For now, these haven’t dampened the market’s enthusiasm, but they are worth monitoring.
In summary, the analyst community appears impressed with First Majestic’s operational execution and leverage to silver’s upswing. Forecasts for the company’s earnings and cash flow in 2025–26 have been revised upward accordingly. So long as the silver bull market holds, many believe First Majestic is positioned to outperform, given its pure-play silver focus and expanded production base. As one research roundup put it, First Majestic “remains highly valued, outpacing most non-gold mining peers – proof of strong confidence in silver’s industrial and investment demand” [99]. The coming quarters will show whether the company can justify that confidence by delivering consistent profits and perhaps reinstating guidance to give the market more clarity.
Macroeconomic Tailwinds: Silver’s Historic Rally and Market Drivers
Precious metals prices have surged in 2025, with silver (orange line) hitting record highs alongside gold’s unprecedented rise.
It is impossible to analyze First Majestic without understanding the extraordinary macro environment for precious metals in 2025. This year has seen what some commentators dub a “precious metals renaissance,” as both gold and silver notched record or near-record prices. Silver in particular has been on a tear, reaching levels not seen in decades. In mid-October, spot silver prices breached $54 per ounce – an all-time high, surpassing the 1980 and 2011 spikes [100]. Even after a late-October pullback on profit-taking, silver remains around the upper $40s per ounce [101], up ~62% for the year [102]. This is the metal’s best year since 2010, and far above the ~$23/oz level where it began 2025. Such a rally provided a massive revenue and earnings tailwind for First Majestic, which derives over half its revenue directly from silver sales [103]. The company’s Q3 average realized price of $39.03/AgEq oz was ~31% higher than a year ago [104], effectively dropping straight to the bottom line given largely fixed costs.
What’s driving silver’s surge? A confluence of factors:
- Safe-Haven and Investment Demand: Global economic and political turbulence has spurred investors to flock into precious metals. Gold’s move above $4,000/oz – itself driven by fears of inflation, recession risks, and war-related uncertainty – pulled silver up with it [105] [106]. Silver often rides gold’s coattails during safe-haven runs, albeit with more volatility. In 2025, ongoing conflicts (notably the Israel-Hamas war and the war in Ukraine) and U.S. political gridlock have kept uncertainty high [107]. Reuters notes that global crises “stoked demand for bullion” this year [108]. Furthermore, a “fear of missing out” phenomenon took hold as prices climbed, leading to hefty inflows into silver exchange-traded funds (ETFs) [109]. Year-to-date, silver ETF holdings and other investment inflows reached multi-year highs, supporting the price.
- Monetary Policy Shift: 2025 marked a pivot in central bank policy. After aggressive rate hikes in 2022–24, the U.S. Federal Reserve signaled an end to tightening and began cutting rates in the second half of 2025 to combat a softening economy [110] [111]. Lower interest rates and a weaker dollar (the USD index fell to near 100 [112]) dramatically improved the appeal of non-yielding assets like silver and gold. Real yields narrowed, and expectations of further easing fueled speculative buying of metals [113]. By October, markets were pricing in at least two Fed rate cuts (one of which occurred in October) [114] [115]. Historically, a Fed easing cycle often corresponds with a strong run in precious metals, and 2025 followed that script.
- Supply and Inventory Squeeze: Unlike gold, silver has significant industrial usage, and physical market tightness became a theme. Reports emerged of declining silver inventories in key vaults and soaring lease rates for silver (the cost to borrow physical metal). Reuters cited “tight supply in the London spot market” as a catalyst that pushed silver to its record high [116]. Comex silver stockpiles also fell to multi-year lows, and some traders noted silver was being pulled from New York to London to meet demand [117]. The Silver Institute projected the largest supply deficit in decades for 2025, as mine output struggled to keep up with demand from both industry and investors [118]. This fundamental tightness amplified price moves – when investors poured in, there was limited supply cushion, causing sharp upticks. First Majestic benefited as buyers at times paid higher premiums for immediate delivery, and the company even held back some production as inventory to capture higher late-quarter prices [119] [120] (they ended Q3 with ~$50M of silver/gold in inventory, counted at fair value).
- Industrial Demand Strength: Beyond safe-haven demand, silver’s role as an industrial commodity (especially in solar panels, electronics, and electric vehicles) underpinned its strength. As the global economy recovered in 2025 and governments pushed ahead with green energy initiatives, silver offtake in photovoltaics and electronics remained robust. A steady recovery in Chinese manufacturing in late 2025 provided an extra boost, indicating resilient consumption in the world’s largest silver-consuming nation [121]. This contrasted with the gloomier narrative of 2022–23, when recession fears loomed; by Q3 2025, investors saw silver as benefiting from both risk-off and pro-growth angles – a somewhat “perfect storm” for the metal.
For First Majestic, these macro tailwinds were transformative. Higher silver prices not only balloon revenue, but also improve margins exponentially because costs per ounce stayed relatively flat. The company’s AISC of ~$21 means that at $25 silver they were barely breaking even last year, whereas at $45–50 silver, margins per ounce are huge. This operating leverage was on full display in Q3 results. It also puts the company in a position to consider further shareholder returns if the price strength holds – e.g., possibly increasing its token dividend or accelerating debt repayment (First Majestic’s debt-to-equity is manageable, and with ~$570M in cash, net debt is near zero).
Looking ahead, market commentators have mixed views on silver’s next moves, but many see support for elevated prices. A Reuters poll of gold industry delegates in late October found consensus that silver will be around $59/oz in a year’s time (Oct 2026) [122]. Banks are also bullish: HSBC raised its 2025 silver forecast to $38.56 (which the market already exceeded) and 2026 to $44.50 [123], while Bank of America went further, targeting $65/oz within 12 months [124]. Much depends on macro factors – if the Fed continues cutting rates and the dollar stays weak, silver could remain on an uptrend. Conversely, any signs of re-accelerating inflation or hawkish policy might temper the rally. Additionally, from an industrial demand perspective, a worsening global economy could soften the support from that sector (though infrastructure bills and renewable energy investments provide a secular demand floor). Geopolitical wildcards also persist, which could either spur safe-haven buying or, if resolved, remove some risk premium.
In sum, the macro environment that boosted First Majestic in 2025 appears likely to carry into early 2026, albeit perhaps not at the frantic pace seen in Q3. The company is highly levered to silver’s fortunes – a fact not lost on investors enjoying the ride up, but also a point of caution as external conditions evolve. So far, 2025’s “silver boom” has been a bonanza for First Majestic, validating its pure-silver focus and recent expansion. The company’s challenge (and opportunity) will be to translate this windfall into lasting value: by continuing to improve operations, growing its reserves, and exercising discipline in capital allocation so that it can thrive even when market winds shift.
Sources: Reuters [125] [126] [127] [128] [129] [130] [131] [132] [133] [134] [135] [136] [137], First Majestic Q3 2025 Press Release [138] [139] [140] [141], Investing.com [142] [143], Finimize [144] [145], Capital.com [146], Reuters (Precious Metals Market Coverage) [147] [148] [149].
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