Garmin’s Big Q3 Surprise: Record Sales Surge, but Stock Plummets

Garmin Venu 4 Shines Bright: Wellness Coach, Flashlight & Big Upgrades to Rival Apple Watch

Record Q3 Performance: Garmin reported ~$1.77–$1.8 billion in third-quarter revenue (up ~12% YoY) ^[1]. GAAP EPS was $2.08 (pro forma $1.99) ^[2], narrowly above Street expectations.
Stock Reaction: Despite the sales beat, Garmin shares fell sharply (~7%) on Oct. 29 as revenue slightly missed consensus ^[3]. The stock had been up ~17% YTD ^[4], but the miss spooked investors.
Raised Guidance: Management raised full-year 2025 guidance to $8.15 EPS and $7.10 billion revenue ^[5] ^[6]. Garmin now expects margins around 58.5% gross and 25.2% operating for FY25 ^[7].
Segment Growth: The fitness segment led the charge (+30% to $601 M) ^[8]. New product launches – including the Venu® 4 smartwatch (with built-in flashlight) and the Bounce™ 2 kids’ tracker – helped drive growth ^[9]. Garmin also launched its first satellite-capable fēnix® 8 Pro outdoor watch ^[10].
Analyst Outlook: Wall Street is divided. Tigress Financial (Strong-Buy) upped its Garmin target to $305 ^[11], citing accelerating wearables demand. By contrast, the median analyst target is only ~$210 ^[12], implying modest upside. Weiss Ratings also reiterated a Buy, noting recent target raises (JPMorgan to $250, Tigress to $305) ^[13].
Legal Headwinds: Tech media highlights a patent suit by fitness app Strava, filed Sept. 30 ^[14]. Strava seeks to halt Garmin’s use of its patented “segments” and “heatmap” features – actions that could hit Garmin’s watches and bike computers hard ^[15] ^[16].

Garmin Q3 2025 Earnings Beat Expectations

Garmin’s Oct. 29 press release showed record Q3 sales of ≈$1.77 billion ^[17], up 12% from a year ago. CEO Cliff Pemble lauded “another quarter of strong financial results” with double-digit revenue growth in multiple segments ^[18]. Adjusted profit was $1.99 per share (versus $1.98 expected) ^[19]. On a GAAP basis EPS was $2.08 ^[20], essentially flat YoY. The strong demand came despite a slowing economy, reflecting Garmin’s diverse portfolio (fitness wearables, marine and aviation equipment, etc.). Notably, Garmin reiterated bullish guidance: it now expects about $8.15 EPS for FY2025 on roughly $7.10 billion revenue ^[21] ^[22].

Stock Slides on Slight Sales Miss and Outlook

Even with solid earnings, Garmin shares tanked around 7% in pre-market trading on Oct. 29 ^[23]. Investors fixated on the narrow sales shortfall: Q3 revenue was $1.77B, just under the $1.78–1.80B consensus ^[24]. Full-year revenue guidance of $7.10B also came in slightly below analysts’ $7.16B forecast ^[25]. As Investing.com notes, the stock “fell 7.29%” after hours despite an earnings beat ^[26]. Garmin’s recent trading history has been volatile – it’s up roughly 17% YTD ^[27], but a week of profit-taking or any new headwinds could quickly reverse gains. (For context, Garmin closed around $248/share just before earnings ^[28].)

Strong Fitness Growth and New Product Push

The fitness division led all segments, with Q3 revenue up ~30% to $601 million ^[29]. Garmin credited robust demand for advanced wearables. This success was bolstered by new launches: during the quarter Garmin launched the Venu 4 smartwatch (with a premium all-metal design and LED flashlight) and the Bounce 2 kids’ tracker ^[30]. The outdoor category saw a small decline (-5%) despite introducing the new fēnix 8 Pro satellite-connect watch ^[31]. The diversity paid off: aviation sales jumped +18%, marine +20% ^[32]. Garmin even launched a hands-free kayak motor and horse-monitoring system – reflecting its broad portfolio.

Tech media was bullish on Garmin’s product roadmap. For example, TechStock² notes that Garmin’s stock “saw a slight uptick” when the Venu 4 was announced, suggesting investor confidence in its innovation ^[33]. Cliff Pemble emphasized the company’s “strong lineup of innovative products” heading into the holiday season ^[34]. Garmin also reported strong cash generation (about $486M operating cash flow) and a $300M buyback program, signaling financial health ^[35].

Analysts and Price Targets: Mixed Signals

Analysts remain split on Garmin’s stock. The most bullish calls point to the company’s growth engine: Tigress Financial’s Ivan Feinseth keeps a strong-buy on Garmin, raising his 12-month target to $305 ^[36] (over 20% above current levels) due to “accelerating revenue growth… in fitness and wearables.” Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan have also lifted their targets this year (to $193 and $250 respectively) ^[37]. In contrast, other analysts are cautious – the median target among 19 forecasts is just $210 ^[38]. MarketBeat notes a consensus “Hold” rating with an average target near $228 ^[39]. In short, some see strong upside if Garmin’s products continue selling, while others feel much of that optimism is already priced in.

Legal Spotlight – Strava vs. Garmin Lawsuit

Adding drama, Garmin faces a high-stakes legal battle. In late September fitness-platform Strava sued Garmin, claiming Garmin copied Strava’s patented “segments” (time-based route challenges) and “heatmap” features ^[40]. Strava is even seeking an injunction to stop Garmin selling any device or service with those features (which could affect nearly all of Garmin’s fitness watches and cycling computers) ^[41]. Industry analysts warn this suit is “high-stakes” – Strava is a $2.2 billion app company aiming for an IPO, and the case “could redefine the balance of power between fitness platforms and the device makers” ^[42]. Garmin has declined detailed comment, but this risk will be closely watched by investors, since any ban on core features would hurt Garmin’s biggest market.

Looking Ahead: Outlook and Forecasts

With Garmin’s stock around the mid-$200s, the outlook hinges on execution. Experts will watch holiday sales (how well Venu 4, fēnix 8 Pro and other products sell) and whether guidance holds. The company now foresees ~$8.15 EPS for FY2025 ^[43], above prior consensus, reflecting confidence. Yet the mixed analyst price targets (from $167 up to $305) underscore a divided market. In the near term, technical analysts see support near $240 and resistance around $260. In summary, Garmin’s fundamentals (diversified business, new products, buybacks) remain strong, but investors will want reassurance that growth can continue in a crowded wearables market and that legal risks stay contained.

Sources: Garmin Q3 press release ^[44] ^[45]; Associated Press/Q3 snapshot ^[46] ^[47]; Investing.com market report ^[48] ^[49]; AskTraders analysis ^[50] ^[51]; TipRanks news ^[52] ^[53]; TechStock² coverage ^[54] ^[55]; MarketBeat/Weiss Ratings ^[56]; tickernerd analyst summary ^[57].

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CEO of TS2 Space and founder of TS2.tech. Expert in satellites, telecommunications, and emerging technologies, covering trends in space, AI, and connectivity.

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Garmin’s Big Q3 Surprise: Record Sales Surge, but Stock Plummets – What’s Next?