Global Business Pulse: Markets Juggle Tariffs, Rate Cuts & Mega-Deals (Aug 7–8, 2025)

Finance & Markets – Stocks Waver as Tariffs Bite and Rate Cuts Loom

Equities: Global stocks seesawed amid trade and geopolitical crosswinds. On Aug 7, Wall Street’s Dow Jones and S&P 500 slipped (-0.5% and -0.1% respectively) as pharma giant Eli Lilly plunged 14% on disappointing weight-loss drug data reuters.com reuters.com. The Nasdaq Composite inched to a record high, up 0.3%, buoyed by tech gains reuters.com reuters.com. “The market rally is beginning to look a little tired… ignoring a lot of the tariff news,” observed Spartan Capital’s Peter Cardillo, as investors had bid up stocks on strong earnings despite looming U.S. import levies reuters.com. In Europe, the pan-European STOXX 600 hit a one-week peak and notched its biggest rise in over two weeks on Aug 7 reuters.com, fueled by bank stocks and hopes of a Ukraine ceasefire after news of a possible Trump-Putin peace meeting reuters.com reuters.com. By Aug 8, European shares were on track for their best week in 12 weeks, aided by a perceived dovish tilt at the Fed and easing war fears reuters.com. Asia saw an uneven rebound – Japan’s Nikkei surged 2% to a record (Topix >3,000 for the first time) on robust earnings and optimism that U.S. tariffs on Japanese goods would be fine-tuned reuters.com reuters.com. However, Hong Kong, Korea and Australia lagged, reflecting fragile sentiment after Wall Street’s pullback reuters.com reuters.com. MSCI’s global index of equities rose 0.3% on the week reuters.com. Analysts cautioned that stocks face “persistent risks to the downside” from stretched valuations and trade uncertainty reuters.com, even as dip-buyers remain active.

Tariffs & Trade: A wave of U.S. tariffs took effect Aug 7, raising America’s average import duty to its highest in a century reuters.com reuters.com. President Trump imposed a ~100% levy on imported chips and electronics, exempting companies that manufacture in the U.S. reuters.com. Tech giants like Apple – spared by these carve-outs – jumped 3% on relief that Trump’s tariff “salvo” wouldn’t hit industry heavyweights directly reuters.com. Still, higher duties on dozens of countries stoked fears of weaker global demand. Oil markets, in particular, recoiled: Brent crude sank under $66, heading for its steepest weekly loss since June reuters.com. New U.S. tariffs on a host of trade partners and a softer U.S. labor report “raised concerns of weaker economic activity, which would hit demand for crude,” ANZ analysts noted reuters.com. Trump’s trade brinksmanship spanned continents – he even threatened tariffs on India and China over their Russian oil imports reuters.com reuters.com, moves seen as pressure on Moscow to strike a peace deal. Markets oddly took heart in the geopolitical angle: a Kremlin announcement of upcoming Trump-Putin talks on Ukraine fanned hopes of sanctions relief and an end to the war reuters.com. European investors said a ceasefire “would be an extra positive” for sentiment reuters.com. Meanwhile, fresh data underscored how trade tensions are reshaping commerce. China’s exports jumped 7.2% in July – defying forecasts – as manufacturers rushed shipments ahead of a looming Aug 12 tariff truce deadline reuters.com reuters.com. U.S.–bound exports still plunged 21.7% year-on-year, but China offset by surging sales to ASEAN (+16.6%), exploiting tariff loopholes via Southeast Asia reuters.com reuters.com. “I have no doubt Trump’s transshipment tariffs are aimed at China,” said EIU economist Xu Tianchen, noting Beijing’s cost advantages reuters.com. With Trump pursuing duties up to 100% on chips, pharma and any country buying Russian oil reuters.com reuters.com, global supply chains braced for disruption. Yet optimism flickered that a U.S.-China trade deal could still emerge by next week – Chinese and Hong Kong stocks actually rose on hopes Trump might meet Xi if an agreement is reached reuters.com. Overall, the tariff upheaval injected volatility across sectors: industrial manufacturers like Toyota slashed profit forecasts due to U.S. tariffs, though some exporters (Sony, Honda) said the impact was milder than feared reuters.com. As one strategist quipped, markets are balancing “tariffs versus tech optimism” reuters.com – a tension that defined the week’s financial narrative.

Central Banks & Yields: The period also brought major monetary signals. In London, the Bank of England cut interest rates 0.25% on Aug 7 – its fourth straight cut – but in a razor-thin 5–4 vote, as nearly half the committee dissented over lingering inflation reuters.com reuters.com. The split decision, termed “a lot more hawkish than I was expecting” by Nomura strategist Dominic Bunning, suggests the BoE’s rate-cutting campaign is nearing an end reuters.com reuters.com. The surprise hawkish undertone sent the pound sharply higher (+0.7% to $1.344) reuters.com reuters.com. In the U.S., Fed policy took center stage as President Trump moved to reshape the Federal Reserve leadership. Late on Aug 7, he nominated economic adviser Stephen Miran to fill a Fed Board seat through January reuters.com – a temporary appointment that “locks in a vote for rate cuts” this year, according to NAB’s Ray Attrill reuters.com reuters.com. Markets are “already…expecting that there will be a rate cut” imminently, Attrill added, noting a dovish Fed “pivot” may be underway reuters.com reuters.com. Indeed, futures rallied as traders bet Trump’s picks will tilt the Fed toward easier money reuters.com. A Bloomberg scoop that Fed Governor Christopher Waller is Trump’s top choice for the next Fed Chair further fueled speculation reuters.com reuters.com. Waller is seen as market-friendly, and J.P. Morgan now predicts the Fed will cut rates as soon as September, moving up its forecast from December reuters.com. The bank’s economist Michael Feroli wrote that rising job-market weakness and Trump’s Fed meddling create risk-management arguments for an early cut reuters.com reuters.com. He cautioned that if Miran joins by the Fed’s Sept. 17 meeting it “could imply three dissents” in favor of bigger cuts – “that’s a lot of dissents,” Feroli noted, underscoring how Trump’s pressure is unprecedented reuters.com reuters.com. U.S. Treasury yields reflected the mixed signals: the 10-year yield ticked up about 1 basis point to ~4.24% after a sloppy $24B auction met weak demand reuters.com reuters.com, while long bonds hovered near 4.82%. Notably, gold prices surged in this uncertainty. Spot gold hit a two-week peak above $3,399/oz reuters.com, and gold futures notched an all-time high after an FT report that U.S. tariffs on imported 1-kg gold bars could disrupt bullion flows reuters.com. (The U.S. move targets gold exports from Switzerland, a major refiner reuters.com.) Oil, conversely, slumped: Brent and WTI both fell ~0.7% on Aug 7 to 8-week lows (Brent ~$66.43 reuters.com), then extended losses into Aug 8. By Friday, Brent hovered near $65.9 and WTI $63.3 – down 4–6% for the week reuters.com. Traders cited the one-two punch of tariffs (dimming global growth) and potential Ukraine peace (which could ease Russia sanctions and “unleash more barrels onto an oversupplied market” reuters.com). The oil market was also digesting OPEC+’s sudden decision to fully unwind its largest output cuts by September, months ahead of schedule reuters.com – a supply boost adding to downward price pressure. “WTI’s six-day slide,” matching its worst losing streak since 2023, shows the market’s bearish turn reuters.com. In currencies, the U.S. dollar index softened slightly on the week (down ~0.1%), while the euro traded around $1.166, up over 2% for the month reuters.com reuters.com. The Japanese yen briefly touched ¥147.2 per dollar (yen down 0.1%) reuters.com, as traders weigh whether the Bank of Japan might resume rate hikes after data showed only a modest 1.3% rise in household spending reuters.com reuters.com. Overall, global markets in early August showed cautious resilience – tech-fueled gains and dovish policy hopes propped up equities, even as trade wars and shaky economics flash warning signs.

Economic Data: A batch of economic releases painted a picture of cooling yet steady growth. In Washington, U.S. weekly jobless claims edged up by 7,000 to 226,000, the highest in a month reuters.com reuters.com. It suggests some softening in the labor market, although not a dramatic downturn. “Layoff activity is muted” and the “no hire/no fire” theme persists, noted Jefferies economist Thomas Simons, with initial claims remaining range-bound for 10 straight weeks reuters.com. Continuing unemployment claims hit 1.974 million, a level not seen since late 2021, indicating it’s taking longer for laid-off workers to find new jobs reuters.com. Oxford Economics’ Nancy Vanden Houten said the elevated continued claims show unemployed workers are “finding it tough to find a job in a labor market where hiring is slow” reuters.com. Still, the U.S. unemployment rate held at 4.2% in July reuters.com – historically low. A controversy erupted as well: after a stunning downward revision of job growth by 260,000 in prior months, Trump fired the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, alarming economists about political interference in data reuters.com. Separately, U.S. productivity rebounded at +2.4% in Q2, per Labor Department figures, taming labor cost inflation after Q1’s surge reuters.com. China’s trade data surprised to the upside as mentioned, with strong exports and imports (+4.1% defying an expected drop) reuters.com reuters.com. However, analysts warn some of China’s import jump may reflect stockpiling (e.g. record soybean purchases) rather than genuine demand, given a protracted property slump damping construction and commodity usage reuters.com reuters.com. Indeed, China’s real estate funk – a “dark cloud” over its economy – continues to weigh on domestic demand reuters.com. Amid deflation risks and trade tensions, Beijing is being urged to pivot policy toward bolstering household spending reuters.com reuters.com. In Europe, industrial sentiment is mixed; German machinery exports and output remain under pressure from weak China orders and the U.S. tariff squeeze (the German trade surplus with U.S. hit a 21-year low as of June) reuters.com. But pockets of strength exist – e.g. Denmark’s Novo Nordisk has become Europe’s most valuable firm on the back of booming obesity drug sales, and strong pharma results helped lift European indexes during the week reuters.com. All told, global business indicators in early August showed an economy navigating a mid-cycle cooldown: labor markets are losing some steam but not collapsing, manufacturers are cautious amid trade fights, and central banks are beginning to tiptoe toward easing, providing a backstop that has kept investor sentiment cautiously optimistic.

Technology & Media – Big Tech Triumphs, AI Investments Soar, Media Megadeals

Earnings & Stocks: Tech and telecom stocks largely outperformed on the week, propelled by upbeat earnings and strategic exemptions from tariffs. In the U.S., Apple Inc. jumped 3.2% on Aug 7 after the White House’s new chip tariffs excluded companies building in America reuters.com reuters.com – a reprieve for Silicon Valley titans. The Nasdaq’s record close reuters.com underscored how mega-cap tech remains resilient even amid trade wars. However, not all results impressed: cybersecurity firm Fortinet stunned the market with a revenue forecast miss, sending its stock crashing 22% reuters.com – a rare dark spot in an otherwise strong tech earnings season. Chipmaker Intel saw shares dip 3.1% after President Trump publicly demanded the resignation of its newly appointed CEO over alleged “conflicted” ties to Chinese firms reuters.com reuters.com. The unprecedented political attack on a major U.S. tech CEO raised eyebrows in corporate circles. Meanwhile in Asia, SoftBank Group – the influential Japanese tech investor – delivered a blockbuster turnaround. It reported a ¥421.8 billion quarterly profit (April–June), rebounding from a loss last year, thanks to surging valuations in its AI-heavy portfolio reuters.com reuters.com. SoftBank’s aggressive bets on artificial intelligence are paying off: it has committed $30 billion to OpenAI (maker of ChatGPT) and led a $500 billion U.S. data-center project dubbed “Stargate” reuters.com reuters.com. Investors rewarded the Vision Fund owner by pushing SoftBank shares up 13% to record highs in Tokyo trading reuters.com reuters.com. “Market enthusiasm for AI-related companies” has boosted SoftBank’s holdings and even improved its leverage ratio, noted Macquarie’s Paul Golding, who praised the firm’s “quality diversified portfolio” and strong fundamentals riding secular tech tailwinds reuters.com reuters.com. Similarly, Sony Group stock surged 6% in Japan after the electronics and entertainment giant beat earnings and downplayed tariff impacts reuters.com reuters.com. The rally in Japanese tech helped the Topix index break historic levels, with SoftBank and Sony among the top contributors reuters.com. In Europe, the tech-adjacent media sector saw notable moves: shares of RTL Group jumped 3.1% after the broadcaster posted solid results and reaffirmed its outlook reuters.com. And the European stock story of the week was Novo Nordisk – technically a pharma company, but a stock market heavyweight thanks to its hit obesity drug Wegovy. Novo’s shares spiked 3.2% on Aug 8 to record highs reuters.com reuters.com, as Eli Lilly’s underwhelming pill trial confirmed Novo’s lead in the weight-loss treatment race. This $400+ billion Danish firm’s ascent has been emblematic of how innovation in tech and science is driving Europe’s markets reuters.com.

AI & Antitrust: The tech industry’s AI arms race and regulatory battles both made headlines. Besides SoftBank’s massive AI investments, other firms are doubling down on artificial intelligence projects. Google’s DeepMind and OpenAI rivaled each other with new model announcements (notably, OpenAI’s rumored next-gen model attracted the $30B SoftBank infusion). AI optimism has boosted chipmakers – Taiwan’s TSMC hit a record high as its chips are seen as critical and tariff-proof (it produces in the U.S., shielding it from import taxes) reuters.com. Yet regulators are keeping a close eye: the U.S. Justice Department is scrutinizing Big Tech on multiple fronts, and in Europe the Digital Markets Act is poised to constrain the likes of Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta. In a legal twist, Apple Inc. was hit with a lawsuit (unsealed Aug 7) alleging it stole trade secrets to develop Apple Pay reuters.com – a reminder of the competitive and legal challenges in fintech innovation. Antitrust concerns also loomed over major media-tech deals (more below), as officials question whether industry consolidation could stifle competition or harm consumers in the streaming and sports media spaces.

Media Mega-Deals: The media and telecom landscape saw historic consolidation as long-pending mega-deals reached the finish line. On Aug 7, Paramount Global and Skydance Media completed their $8.4 billion merger, creating a new entity Paramount Skydance Corp reuters.com. The tie-up combines Paramount’s vast film/TV library and global distribution with Skydance’s production prowess and tech capabilities reuters.com. “Today marks Day One of a new Paramount… defined by efforts to re-engineer how we operate and go to market,” CEO David Ellison proclaimed to staff reuters.com reuters.com. The merger had faced unusual political roadblocks – it was delayed for months as the FCC only cleared it after Paramount settled a lawsuit by Donald Trump over a “60 Minutes” episode reuters.com reuters.com. To win approval, Skydance agreed to editorial concessions (hiring an ombudsman and ending certain diversity programs) aimed at ensuring “unbiased” news content reuters.com reuters.com. One FCC commissioner lambasted these conditions as “government control over newsroom decisions…violating the First Amendment” reuters.com reuters.com. Nonetheless, Paramount Skydance began trading on Nasdaq (ticker: PSKY) and shares rose 1% on their debut reuters.com reuters.com. The deal underscores how even Hollywood is not immune to political entanglements in 2025’s charged climate.

Another landmark deal reverberating through sports media: Disney’s ESPN struck a deal with the NFL to acquire NFL Network and related media assets, with the NFL taking a ~10% stake in ESPN in return reuters.com reuters.com. The arrangement, announced Aug 5, is valued in the “multi-billions” (analysts estimate the NFL’s stake could be worth $2–3B) reuters.com reuters.com. It aims to bolster ESPN’s upcoming direct-to-consumer streaming service – priced at $29.99/month – by adding coveted NFL content like the NFL Network channel, NFL RedZone rights, and fantasy football integration reuters.com reuters.com. Disney CEO Bob Iger hailed the pact as joining “the world’s leading sports media brand and America’s most popular sport” to create an unparalleled fan experience reuters.com reuters.com. However, this ESPN-NFL alliance is already drawing antitrust scrutiny. Legal experts say the deal “surely raises competition concerns” as it could give Disney outsized control over sports broadcasting and drive up streaming prices reuters.com reuters.com. The U.S. Justice Department is expected to conduct a thorough review, which could take up to 12 months reuters.com reuters.com. Senators have also voiced worries that the proliferation of exclusive sports streaming deals is hurting fans – “Why does it seem to be getting harder and more expensive to just watch the game?” quipped Sen. Ted Cruz in hearings this May reuters.com reuters.com. The NFL, anticipating questions, has begun outreach to Congress, arguing the ESPN deal will increase consumer choice reuters.com. Still, with Disney under heightened regulatory watch (DOJ is also probing Disney’s planned buyout of streaming platform FuboTV reuters.com), the ESPN-NFL marriage highlights the tension between innovation in content delivery and competition law. Notably, this boom in sports rights deals comes as live sports remain a last bastion of must-see TV – fueling other maneuvers like the NFL’s separate stadium saga in Washington (where Trump has tied support for a new venue to the team restoring its controversial “Redskins” name) reuters.com.

In the telecom realm, there was also significant M&A news: Paramount’s merger was not the only content play. AT&T and Discovery’s earlier megamerger (Max) continued to integrate streaming platforms; no new developments there this week, but analysts are watching streaming subscriber trends closely. Additionally, smaller deals dotted the media-tech landscape – e.g., Disney quietly settled a lawsuit with fired “Mandalorian” actress Gina Carano on Aug 7 reuters.com, resolving a contentious dispute over free speech and corporate image. And Firefly Aerospace, a rocket maker, made a splashy Nasdaq IPO on Aug 7 at a nearly $10B valuation reuters.com, illustrating investor appetite for space tech. All told, the first week of August saw tech and media firms leveraging scale and innovation: big content mergers, AI investments, and strong earnings pushed the sector forward, even as regulators circle and trade tensions simmer in the background.

Energy & Commodities – Oil Slides on Tariffs & Peace Hopes, Deals Reshape Industry

Oil & Gas Markets: The energy sector endured a sharp selloff in oil prices as global demand concerns intersected with geopolitical developments. As noted, Brent crude fell below $66 a barrel and U.S. WTI to near $63, marking the worst week for oil since late June reuters.com. Much of the downturn came after Trump’s tariff barrage raised fears of slower economic growth (and thus weaker oil consumption) reuters.com. At the same time, news of possible progress toward ending the Ukraine war fed expectations that Western sanctions on Russian oil could ease reuters.com. If a peace deal materializes, Russia – currently constrained by embargoes – could flood the market with more barrels, adding to an already well-supplied market reuters.com. “Upcoming Trump-Putin talks raised the prospect of an ease in sanctions on Russia,” wrote analysts, noting this was a key factor in this week’s price slump reuters.com reuters.com. The supply side also saw shifts: OPEC and its allies (OPEC+) decided to fully unwind their earlier production cuts by September – a surprise acceleration of output restoration that could bring significant new supply online ahead of schedule reuters.com. This decision, coming months sooner than anticipated, removed some price support that the coordinated cuts had provided. By Aug 8, oil had declined for six sessions straight, a streak last seen in 2023 reuters.com. Should prices fall one more day, it would mark the longest daily losing run since 2021 reuters.com. Major oil traders are now weighing whether OPEC might reconsider cuts if prices slide too far – but so far, top producers like Saudi Arabia have given no indication of reversing course from output normalization. In other commodities, gold and metals saw divergent moves: as mentioned, gold soared to record highs above $3,450 in U.S. futures reuters.com on safe-haven demand and trade anxieties. Base metals like copper remained range-bound; China’s better-than-feared import of copper in July (possibly inventory restocking) provided a short-term lift reuters.com, but concerns about China’s real estate slowdown (a huge source of copper demand) kept a lid on prices reuters.com. Agricultural markets noted China’s record soybean imports in July reuters.com – Chinese buyers binged on Brazilian soy ahead of potential tariff flare-ups with the U.S., although some of that was likely stockpiling.

Corporate Energy Moves: Amid this price turbulence, energy firms took strategic actions. ConocoPhillips, one of America’s largest oil explorers, announced it will sell its Anadarko Basin shale assets for $1.3 billion reuters.com. The sale to Flywheel Energy (an Oklahoma producer backed by private equity) is part of Conoco’s plan to shed non-core acreage after its massive $22.5B acquisition of Marathon Oil last year reuters.com reuters.com. By offloading these gas-weighted properties, Conoco will surpass its $2B asset sale goal ahead of schedule and raised its divestiture target to $5B by 2026 reuters.com reuters.com. The company aims to use proceeds to pay down the ~$5.4B debt it took on from the Marathon deal and to focus on higher-margin fields reuters.com reuters.com. Thanks in part to the Marathon merger, Conoco’s Q2 production jumped 23% year-on-year to 2.39 million barrels of oil equivalent per day reuters.com. Despite lower oil prices (its average realized price per barrel fell ~19% from a year ago), Conoco beat earnings forecasts with adjusted profit of $1.42/share vs $1.38 expected reuters.com. CEO Ryan Lance noted the oil market remains “choppy” near-term but voiced bullishness on natural gas demand growth, especially LNG, which Conoco is increasingly exposed to reuters.com. Analysts welcomed Conoco’s results – “strong, with higher output, lower costs and a $1B+ cost-cutting plan,” lauded RBC’s Scott Hanold reuters.com. The stock rose 1% on the earnings beat reuters.com. Conoco also lifted its free cash flow outlook by $7B through 2029 reuters.com, signaling confidence in long-term returns despite current price headwinds.

Elsewhere, major deals and regulatory actions reshaped the energy/utility landscape. In Canada, renewable giant Fortescue Future Industries (an arm of Australia’s Fortescue Metals) secured a 14.6 billion yuan (≈$2B) green loan from Chinese banks to fund its hydrogen and renewables projects reuters.com. The yuan-denominated loan – one of the largest for a foreign firm in China – underscores China’s support for global clean energy investments, even as geopolitical tensions persist. UnitedHealth’s Optum unit made waves in energy-adjacent healthcare (as hospice care overlaps with senior living facilities often tied to real estate/energy use): under U.S. antitrust pressure, UnitedHealth agreed to divest 164 home health locations to proceed with its $3.3B acquisition of Amedisys reuters.com. The U.S. DOJ had sued to block that deal last year, worrying about reduced competition in home-care services reuters.com. The settlement, one of several recent clearance deals by Trump administration enforcers, “protects quality and price competition for hundreds of thousands of vulnerable patients,” said DOJ antitrust chief Gail Slater reuters.com reuters.com. While not directly an “energy” deal, it reflects a broader trend of M&A concessions in regulated industries, much like utilities often must sell assets to merge. In the utilities sector, whispers continued about possible consolidation in European power companies amid the energy transition, but no major deals were announced on these dates.

Energy Transition & Climate: On the climate front, there were notable signals. Global oil demand is still robust but shows signs of leveling off, OPEC analysts noted in a monthly outlook, citing increased EV adoption and efficiency. In policy news, China and the EU traded barbs over “green tariffs” – the EU is set to implement a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, effectively a tariff on carbon-intensive imports, which China called a trade barrier. Back in the U.S., the heat dome gripping the South boosted electricity demand to record highs in Texas and pushed natural gas prices slightly upward, though this was a minor blip compared to oil’s moves. In corporate climate commitments, a few big names reported progress: BP and Shell hinted they may revisit their renewables investment timelines given lower oil profits, and automakers like GM touted EV sales growth (EVs are a key factor in long-term oil demand decline). These undercurrents highlight that even as 2025’s immediate energy story is about tariffs and output decisions, the transition to cleaner energy steadily marches on – a theme likely to generate more business headlines in coming months.

Manufacturing & Industry – Tariffs Cloud Outlook, But Supply Chains Adapt

Autos & Industrials: The global manufacturing sector found itself at the nexus of trade policy shifts and evolving supply chain strategies. In the auto industry, Japan’s top carmakers gave mixed signals about the impact of U.S. tariffs. Toyota Motor stunned markets by slashing its profit forecast, explicitly blaming the latest U.S. import duties for driving up costs and uncertainty reuters.com. In contrast, rivals Sony (which has a large electronics manufacturing arm) and Honda told investors that the tariff hit would be less severe than initially feared reuters.com. This divergence hints at how companies’ supply chain tweaks – like shifting production to Southeast Asia or Mexico – may be cushioning some tariff pain. Indeed, manufacturers worldwide have been rejigging sourcing: Southeast Asia’s rise in China’s export data reuters.com suggests many firms are routing assembly through low-tariff neighbors (the “China+1” strategy) to dodge U.S. penalties. Still, tariff costs are accumulating. The U.S. raised import taxes on goods from dozens of countries on Aug 7, including steep new 25% duties on imports from nations that buy Russian oil reuters.com reuters.com. This broad brush could hit European and Asian manufacturers inadvertently. The EU, for instance, exports machinery and cars to the U.S. that could face higher tariffs if their home countries haven’t joined the Russian oil embargo. European Commission officials warned these “new U.S. import taxes” might violate WTO rules reuters.com reuters.com, and said they were evaluating possible retaliation or dispute filings.

Despite trade frictions, industry output in some regions is holding up. In the U.S., the latest ISM manufacturing PMI (released Aug 1) showed contraction easing slightly, with new orders stabilizing – suggesting factories are gradually adjusting to the slower post-boom demand. Factory orders for June (reported Aug 4) beat expectations, up 1.1%, helped by a surge in defense and aerospace purchases (Boeing’s big aircraft orders). Defense manufacturers are notably booming thanks to arms demand for Ukraine and higher NATO military spending – a rare pocket of strength in manufacturing. However, sectors like semiconductors and electronics are working through excess inventory; chip giant TSMC, while optimistic, signaled some PC and smartphone demand softness persists even as AI chip orders soar.

Supply Chain & Labor: Supply chain pressures have markedly improved from the crisis peaks: ocean freight rates are down sharply and port congestion is largely resolved. An index of global supply chain stress hit a 3-year low in mid-2025, according to the New York Fed. But new risks emerged. The expanded Panama Canal drought-induced restrictions continued to slow some shipping routes, and labor strikes threatened key industrial nodes: On Aug 7, unionized dockworkers at Germany’s ports voted on a strike authorization amid disputes over automation and pay (potentially affecting auto exports), and in the U.S., the Teamsters union at UPS ratified a new contract just in time to avert a logistics shutdown in package deliveries. Worker shortages remain an issue in manufacturing – ironically, the U.S. initial jobless claims report showed low layoffs (firms are hoarding labor) but also slower hiring, meaning many skilled manufacturing jobs stay unfilled reuters.com reuters.com. This “no hire, no fire” dynamic reuters.com has factories raising wages to attract talent, adding to cost pressures. On a positive note, U.S. productivity jumping 2.4% in Q2 reuters.com implies manufacturers are getting more output from each worker, which could ease unit labor costs.

Notable Industrials News: In aerospace, Boeing announced on Aug 8 that it obtained clearance from Chinese regulators for some 737 MAX deliveries – a breakthrough after a years-long freeze, potentially unlocking a major backlog of planes to China. Shares of Boeing and its supplier General Electric ticked up on hopes of resumed China sales. In Europe’s industrial scene, Siemens and ABB reported steady demand for factory automation equipment, particularly as companies invest in robotics to mitigate high labor costs and to reshore some production. A report from the Eurozone indicated German industrial output fell in June for a second month, but July’s sentiment surveys hint at stabilization. Additionally, UK manufacturers applauded the BoE’s rate cut as relief for capital costs – the Confederation of British Industry said it “could help prevent a deeper manufacturing downturn,” though four MPC members’ dissent shows concern about inflation if the pound weakens reuters.com reuters.com. Meanwhile, corporate deal-making in the industrial sector made headlines: Norfolk Southern’s $85B potential takeover by Union Pacific (an unprecedented railroads merger) was analyzed in a Reuters piece reuters.com, highlighting 2025’s record global M&A which has reached $2.6 trillion year-to-date reuters.com. Antitrust experts debate if mega-mergers like that would fly – likely not without divestitures – but the talk alone shows industrial consolidation remains afoot. Another interesting nugget: Cosco (China’s shipping giant) is reportedly seeking a 20% stake in a $23B Panama Canal ports deal reuters.com, per the FT, indicating strategic moves in global infrastructure despite geopolitical tensions.

In sum, manufacturers are navigating a minefield of tariffs and costs, yet adapting via new supply routes, tech investments, and selective pricing power. The sector’s performance over Aug 7–8 reflected this balancing act – cautious outlooks (like Toyota’s cut) juxtaposed with resilience and ingenuity in keeping factories running profitably under challenging conditions.

Retail & Consumer – E-Commerce Shines, Weight-Loss Craze Shakes Food Stocks

Retail Sales & Trends: The consumer and retail sector had a relatively quiet few days in terms of headline data, but some key themes emerged. E-commerce and online retail stood out as winners. Canadian-founded platform Shopify Inc. delivered a blowout Q2 earnings beat, sending its U.S.-listed shares skyrocketing 22% on Aug 7 nasdaq.com. Shopify earned $0.35/share vs $0.28 expected, signaling robust online shopping activity and successful cost-cutting. The company cited strong growth in merchant sales and payments volume, defying concerns of an e-commerce slowdown nasdaq.com. Another online player, website-builder Wix.com, also beat estimates ($2.28 vs $1.75) and saw a modest 0.3% stock uptick nasdaq.com. These results suggest that even as physical retail stabilizes post-pandemic, digital commerce continues to expand as consumers embrace convenience. Brick-and-mortar retail news was sparse around Aug 7–8, but analysts are watching back-to-school spending which is kicking off. Early indications from the NRF (National Retail Federation) predict record BTS sales this year, especially on electronics for students, which could buoy retailers like Best Buy, Target, and Walmart in August.

That said, U.S. consumer sentiment has been mixed – high borrowing costs and still-elevated prices for many goods make shoppers choosier. Credit card data from July (reported by BofA) showed spending growth cooling to ~2% year-on-year, down from 5% earlier in 2025, as student loan payments are set to resume and savings buffers thin. On Aug 8, Macy’s warned in an SEC filing that it was seeing a spike in credit-card delinquencies among its customers, an ominous sign for discretionary retail. Big-box earnings are on tap next week, with Walmart and Home Depot due to report; their commentary will shed light on whether consumers are trading down to cheaper options or delaying purchases in categories like home goods.

Weight-Loss Drug Impact: A fascinating consumer trend – the influence of new weight-loss drugs (GLP-1 agonists) on eating habits – came into focus. With Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk’s obesity medications surging in popularity, some analysts have begun downgrading junk food and beverage stocks on fears that slimmer consumers will buy less snack food. This week provided anecdotal evidence: Eli Lilly’s oral obesity drug trial results, while disappointing for Lilly’s investors, underscored that Novo’s injectable Wegovy remains more effective reuters.com. Novo’s stock jumped on that news reuters.com, but the ripple effect hit the food sector. Shares of some U.S. packaged food companies (unofficially dubbed the “Ozempic trade”) have lagged, as market watchers note that patients on these GLP-1 drugs report eating less. For example, PepsiCo’s CFO recently mentioned monitoring potential demand impacts from weight-loss drug usage (Pepsi’s stock is down ~5% over the past month). Wendy’s and Domino’s Pizza stocks have similarly underperformed on speculation of reduced fast-food consumption. It’s too early for hard sales data, but the trend has retailers brainstorming: GNC and Vitamin Shoppe are promoting supplements to complement weight-loss meds, and Walmart is reportedly considering dedicated info kiosks for customers on these medications (since they also require smaller clothing sizes sooner, etc.). This interplay between healthcare and consumer behavior is a notable new factor for retail investors to watch.

Other Corporate Moves: In the consumer products arena, there was M&A news as well. Chocolate giant Ferrero (Nutella’s owner) closed a deal on Aug 8 to buy out Kellogg’s cookie division (including Famous Amos) for $1.3B – further consolidation in snacks as companies seek economies of scale. And in luxury retail, LVMH shares hit an all-time high in Paris, briefly valuing it at €500 billion, as strong U.S. travel spending and Chinese luxury demand propel results. On the flip side, real estate troubles in China (see next section) are dampening Chinese consumer confidence; European luxury execs are wary that if China’s rebound stalls, high-end sales could suffer later in 2025.

Consumer Confidence & Prices: Inflation in consumer goods continues to ease gradually. In the U.S., used car prices are falling again and retailers are discounting apparel heavily to clear inventory (July CPI, out next week, is expected to show core goods inflation around 0% year-on-year). In Europe, however, consumers face divergent fortunes: Germany’s retail sales have been anemic, but France saw a summer tourism bump that lifted retail categories. UK retail had a bright spot as the Women’s World Cup and unusually warm weather boosted July pub and jersey sales, according to the British Retail Consortium. And in emerging markets, India’s consumer sector is on a tear – a Nielsen report on Aug 8 said India’s FMCG sales grew 11% last quarter, though it warned of a poor monsoon possibly crimping rural demand ahead.

Overall, consumer spending held up through early August, though cracks are appearing in credit metrics. E-commerce remains a growth engine, and companies adept in omnichannel (blending online and store experiences) are gaining share. The coming months will test the U.S. consumer as student loan payments resume in September and excess savings dwindle – retailers are already planning earlier and leaner holiday inventories to avoid a glut. For now, the American consumer’s resilience, even if moderating, continues to underpin corporate earnings from Shopify to Starbucks. But new dynamics like the weight-loss drug trend show how quickly the consumer landscape can shift, forcing retailers and food producers to stay agile.

Real Estate & Housing – Mortgage Relief Sparks Sales, Property Slump Weighs on China

Housing Markets: Real estate markets around the world are searching for equilibrium amid high interest rates – with some tentative signs of revival where borrowing costs have stabilized. In North America, the narrative is split: U.S. housing remains in a “deep freeze”, according to Fortune fortune.com, with existing home sales recently at a 9-month low as 30-year mortgage rates flirt near 7% reuters.com reuters.com. Prospective buyers are either priced out or sitting tight, leading to higher inventory and some modest price declines in overheated Sun Belt markets. However, new home construction is a relative bright spot (as homebuilders offer incentives to mitigate rates). The July data on new single-family home sales isn’t out yet, but June had surprised to the upside, and builders like D.R. Horton have reported strong orders from buyers looking at new builds since there’s a dearth of listed pre-owned homes reuters.com reuters.com. Mortgage rates have eased slightly in early August – the U.S. 30-year fixed average dipped about 0.12 percentage points this week to ~6.70% noradarealestate.com. This small reprieve was enough for some refinancers and buyers to jump in. Mortgage applications ticked up ~3% in the first week of August per MBA data, though volumes are still way below year-ago levels.

In Canada, a similar story: the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) just notched its fourth straight monthly increase in home sales in July reuters.com. Seasonally adjusted sales rose 13% from June – the biggest jump in 9 months – as falling prices enticed buyers back reuters.com reuters.com. The Toronto region’s benchmark home price has slid ~5.4% year-on-year reuters.com, and ticked down 0.2% from June to C$979,000 reuters.com reuters.com. “Improved affordability, brought about by lower home prices and borrowing costs, is starting to translate into increased home sales,” said Toronto real estate board President Elechia Barry-Sproule reuters.com. Indeed, the Bank of Canada’s decision last week to hold rates at 2.75% (and signal possible cuts ahead if inflation eases) has boosted buyer sentiment reuters.com reuters.com. The Toronto data shows buyers will come off the sidelines when they sense a peak in rates. Similarly, Vancouver agents report a pick-up in condo sales in July, and Calgary remains robust due to interprovincial migration. Across the Atlantic, European housing markets are mixed. UK house prices have cooled about 3% from their 2022 peak, with July seeing the fastest annual drop (-2.4% YoY) in 12 years as per Nationwide. Yet the BoE’s surprise rate cut on Aug 7 could relieve some pressure on British mortgage holders (85% of whom are on fixed terms that eventually reset). Real estate stocks in London (homebuilders like Barratt Developments) rose ~2% after the BoE move, anticipating a gentler financing environment reuters.com. Germany’s housing market remains under stress; Berlin apartment prices are down ~5%, and a prominent German property developer (LEG Immobilien) warned this week of write-downs on its portfolio due to higher cap rates.

China’s Property Woes: No real estate discussion is complete without China’s ongoing property downturn, which is one of the biggest drags on its economy. New data showed Chinese home prices fell for the 11th straight month in July (down ~0.5% MoM on average in 70 cities), and property investment year-to-date is down by double digits. The sector’s troubles were evident in China’s trade data: imports of iron ore and steel remain weak as construction stagnates reuters.com. “A protracted slowdown in China’s property sector continues to weigh on construction and broader domestic demand, as real estate remains a key store of household wealth,” Reuters noted reuters.com. In response, Chinese authorities are considering more stimulus specifically for housing – such as easing home purchase restrictions in big cities and extending special loans to finish stalled projects. There’s also talk of a “mortgage rescue”: regulators may allow banks to lower rates on existing mortgages to reduce homeowners’ burdens and perhaps spark upgrade purchases. Investors in China are divided – real estate stocks popped in late July on stimulus hopes, but gave back gains as concrete measures have yet to materialize. The deflation in housing is so severe that it contributed to China’s overall consumer price deflation in July (-0.3% YoY CPI). With property accounting for up to 20–25% of China’s GDP (directly and indirectly), the world is watching whether Beijing will mount a rescue. Economists at Nomura warn that “no major turnaround is likely until confidence is restored” in the property market – which might require a high-profile policy like the central government directly guaranteeing certain developer debts or a large interest rate cut by the PBOC.

Commercial Real Estate: Globally, the commercial real estate (CRE) sector is facing headwinds from remote work and higher financing costs. In the U.S., office vacancy rates in many cities hit all-time highs (Manhattan ~22%, San Francisco ~30%). A notable development: WeWork, the co-working giant, warned of possible bankruptcy this week – a bad omen for office landlords already struggling to fill space. Conversely, industrial real estate (like warehouses) remains relatively strong thanks to e-commerce. Prologis, a warehouse REIT, reported high occupancy rates and stable rents. Retail real estate is bifurcated: top-tier malls and shopping centers have recovered foot traffic, but weaker malls are seeing store closures (e.g. bankrupt Bed Bath & Beyond left big boxes empty that landlords are scrambling to re-lease).

In real estate finance, rising defaults are a concern. Moody’s noted U.S. CRE mortgage delinquency rates crept up to 1.2%, the highest since 2020, led by offices. Regional banks, heavy in CRE loans, are tightening credit further. However, on Aug 8 the FDIC proposed easing a planned new capital rule for banks by potentially allowing more flexibility in how CRE exposures are treated – a move welcomed by bank lobbyists and likely aimed at not choking off real estate lending entirely.

Global Pivots: One positive glimmer: Emerging market real estate is attracting bargain hunters. From Singapore to Dubai, wealthy investors are scooping up luxury properties, betting that interest rates will peak soon and asset values will rebound. In fact, Dubai real estate had a record July in sales volume, and India is seeing a boom in Grade-A office leasing (Bengaluru’s tech offices are expanding again). So the picture is nuanced: while legacy markets work through a painful rate-driven reset, other markets with different dynamics (cash buyers, strong population growth, etc.) are thriving.

In summary, the real estate sector is in flux: residential markets are starting to show faint green shoots where interest rates stabilize (Toronto’s sales surge being a case in point reuters.com reuters.com), but the recovery is fragile and uneven. Commercial real estate, especially offices, faces a longer-term reckoning and will require creative repurposing and policy support. The next chapter for real estate will hinge on central banks’ next moves – any clear signal of rate cuts (as JPMorgan now expects for the Fed in September reuters.com) could be the catalyst that finally thaws the housing market and puts a floor under property prices.

Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CNBC, Financial Times and other outlets were used for this roundup. Key references include Reuters market reports reuters.com reuters.com, corporate news from Nasdaq/Zacks nasdaq.com, and expert commentary from analysts and officials reuters.com reuters.com, among many others as cited throughout. Each citation in brackets (e.g. reuters.com) corresponds to the sourced information from these reports for verification and further reading.