HCA Healthcare (HCA) Stock on December 1, 2025: Near All‑Time Highs, Upgraded Guidance and What Comes Next

Date: December 1, 2025 – NYSE: HCA

HCA Healthcare stock snapshot on December 1, 2025

HCA Healthcare, Inc. (NYSE: HCA), the largest for‑profit hospital operator in the United States, continues to trade near record territory as December begins.

Closing price (Dec 1, 2025): about $503 per share
Day’s range: roughly $502–$512 with a close modestly below Friday’s $508.29, a decline of about 1% on the day. ^[1]
52‑week range: approximately $290 (low) to $520 (all‑time high). ^[2]
Market cap: around $117–118 billion. ^[3]

Barchart’s latest feature on the stock notes that HCA hit an all‑time high of $520 in the prior session and that shares have soared 71.5% year‑to‑date and 56.5% over the past 12 months, handily beating the Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLV). ^[4]

Technically, HCA has been trading above its 50‑day moving average since January and above its 200‑day moving average since early May, underlining a strong, persistent uptrend. ^[5]

At today’s price, the stock changes hands at roughly the high teens to ~20× trailing earnings, depending on the exact earnings base used, a multiple that is below the broader S&P 500’s ~23× P/E and at a discount to the healthcare sector on key cash‑flow metrics. ^[6]

The key December 1, 2025 headlines on HCA Healthcare

A cluster of fresh articles published on December 1, 2025 focuses on institutional trading, buybacks, and valuation.

1. Institutional buyers and sellers reshuffle HCA positions

MarketBeat has released multiple 13F‑driven notes on HCA today, highlighting how different institutional investors are repositioning: ^[7]

Dixon Mitchell Investment Counsel Inc.
- Action: Increased its HCA stake by 6.9%.
- Position: Now holds 71,843 shares, worth roughly $27.6 million, making HCA about 1.1% of its portfolio and its 29th‑largest holding.
- The same article reiterates that HCA’s Q3 2025 earnings beat Wall Street expectations and that the company has set 2025 EPS guidance at $27–$28 per share, with analysts maintaining a “Moderate Buy” consensus and an average target price around $474.53. ^[8]
J.W. Cole Advisors Inc.
- Action: Cut its HCA position by 28.9%, selling 1,025 shares and ending the period with 2,525 shares worth just under $1 million. ^[9]
Leuthold Group LLC
- Action: Trimmed its holding by 12.6%, selling 2,246 shares and finishing the quarter with 15,606 shares valued at roughly $6 million. ^[10]
Johnson Financial Group Inc.
- Action: Reduced its stake by 88.8%, selling 1,831 shares and retaining just 230 shares (about $88,000 of stock). ^[11]

Across these filings, MarketBeat points out that institutional investors and hedge funds control about 62.7% of HCA’s float, while corporate insiders own roughly 1.3% and have been net sellers in recent months (notably EVP Michael S. Cuffe and EVP Michael R. McAlevey). ^[12]

Takeaway:
Small and mid‑size funds are clearly locking in profits after a massive run, but the largest long‑term institutions (Norges Bank, Price T. Rowe, Goldman Sachs, Nuveen, Nordea and others) have materially increased their positions over 2025, reinforcing the view that HCA remains a core holding in many institutional portfolios. ^[13]

2. Fresh Forbes view: “Caring for patients and investors alike”

A new Forbes column published on December 1, 2025, argues that HCA has significantly outperformed the market yet still appears undervalued given its strong and growing profits and cash flows. ^[14]

Key points from the Forbes piece (paraphrased):

In January 2025, HCA’s board authorized a $10 billion share repurchase program, signalling confidence in long‑term cash generation. ^[15]
By September 30, 2025, the company had already used billions of dollars on buybacks, while simultaneously raising full‑year guidance (details in the Q3 section below). ^[16]
The author suggests that ongoing buybacks, rising earnings and robust free cash flow could continue to drive shareholder returns, even if the share price has run far ahead of the broader market. ^[17]

3. Recent analysis: Outperforming the healthcare sector

Just a few days earlier, Barchart ran a detailed look at HCA’s run, noting that: ^[18]

HCA touched an all‑time high of $520 before a modest pullback.
Shares are up 28.1% in the last three months, versus 15.6% for XLV over the same period.
On a year‑to‑date basis, HCA has surged 71.5%, compared with 15.2% for XLV, and over the past 52 weeks it has gained 56.5% vs. XLV’s 8.4%.
Among 26 analysts, the consensus stands at “Moderate Buy” with an average price target around $480.61, which is below the current share price – a sign that Wall Street’s official targets have not fully kept pace with the rally.

4. Policy tailwind: ACA subsidy extension talk

On November 24, 2025, Reuters reported that the White House is considering a framework to extend Affordable Care Act premium subsidies for two years, which would be supportive for health insurers and hospital operators. ^[19]

Oppenheimer’s healthcare analyst noted that such a move would be “better than feared” for providers, and HCA’s stock rose about 3.2% on the day of the report, as investors reassessed long‑term reimbursement and volume risk for hospitals. ^[20]

Earnings check: Q3 2025 beat and raised full‑year guidance

HCA’s October 24, 2025 earnings release remains the fundamental backbone of today’s bullish narrative. The company posted strong third‑quarter numbers and raised its 2025 outlook. ^[21]

Q3 2025 results (vs. Q3 2024)

Revenue:
- $19.161 billion, up 9.6% year‑over‑year (from $17.487 billion).
Net income attributable to HCA:
- $1.643 billion, up 29.4%.
Diluted EPS:
- $6.96, up 42.6% from $4.88.
Adjusted EBITDA:
- $3.87 billion, up 18.5%.
Cash flow from operations:
- $4.416 billion vs. $3.515 billion a year earlier.
Same‑facility trends:
- Admissions +2.1%; equivalent admissions +2.4%.
- Emergency room visits +1.3%.
- Inpatient surgeries +1.4%, outpatient surgeries +1.1%.
- Revenue per equivalent admission +6.6%. ^[22]

For the first nine months of 2025, HCA generated:

Revenue:$56.087 billion, up from $52.318 billion.
Net income attributable to HCA:$4.906 billion (EPS $20.23), up from $4.322 billion (EPS $16.37). ^[23]

Balance sheet, leverage and buybacks

As of September 30, 2025, HCA reported: ^[24]

Cash and equivalents: about $997 million.
Total debt:$44.5 billion.
Total assets:$59.7 billion.

Capital expenditures in Q3 (excluding acquisitions) reached $1.288 billion, underscoring ongoing investment in facilities and technology. ^[25]

At the same time, HCA is aggressively returning capital:

Share repurchases in Q3 2025:
- 6.514 million shares bought back for $2.498 billion.
- $3.256 billion remained under the repurchase authorization as of quarter‑end. ^[26]
Combined with the $10 billion buyback program authorized in January 2025, this makes HCA one of the more aggressive repurchasers in the healthcare sector, a point highlighted in today’s Forbes analysis. ^[27]

2025 guidance (updated October 24, 2025)

Following the Q3 beat, management raised full‑year 2025 guidance: ^[28]

Revenue:
- From $74–76 billion → now $75–76.5 billion.
Net income attributable to HCA:
- From $6.11–6.48 billion → now $6.495–6.715 billion.
Adjusted EBITDA:
- From $14.7–15.3 billion → now $15.25–15.65 billion.
Diluted EPS:
- From $25.50–27.00 → now $27.00–28.00 per share.
Capital expenditures 2025:
- About $5.0 billion (excluding acquisitions).

These upgrades help explain why analysts have nudged price targets higher and why the stock has re‑rated upward, with the P/E multiple expanding significantly versus prior years. ^[29]

Dividend and shareholder returns

HCA combines growth with a modest but growing dividend:

Quarterly dividend:$0.72 per share.
Ex‑dividend date:December 15, 2025.
Payment date:December 29, 2025. ^[30]

At the current share price near $503, the dividend equates to an annualized yield of roughly 0.6%, with a payout ratio just north of 10% of expected 2025 earnings – leaving ample room for further buybacks and reinvestment. ^[31]

Trefis estimates trailing twelve‑month revenue of about $72.7 billion, cash from operations around $11.9 billion, and net income about $6.0 billion, producing a net margin of roughly 8.2% and strong cash conversion. ^[32]

From 2020 through late 2025, Trefis calculates that HCA has delivered cumulative total returns of about 265%, versus roughly 111% for the S&P 500, with 2025 alone showing a ~73% gain up to late November. ^[33]

Valuation: quality at a discount to the sector

Despite its big run, HCA is not the most expensive name in healthcare when measured against its cash flows.

According to Trefis, as of late November 2025: ^[34]

Price‑to‑earnings (P/E, TTM): about 17×.
Price‑to‑sales (P/S, TTM): about 1.4× vs. roughly 3.2× for the S&P 500.
Price‑to‑cash‑flow (P/CFO, TTM): about 8.5× vs. 15.8× for the S&P 500.
Price‑to‑free‑cash‑flow (P/FCF): about 13.9× vs. 20.5× for the S&P 500.

MarketBeat’s HCA snapshot, using a different set of trailing earnings, shows a P/E nearer 19.8×, a PEG ratio around 1.4, and a beta of ~1.4, signalling both growth and above‑market volatility. ^[35]

Taken together, the data suggest that most of HCA’s recent share‑price strength has come from multiple expansion, not just earnings growth:

Trefis estimates that between November 2024 and November 2025, HCA’s share price jumped roughly 58–59%, while revenue grew about 4.4% and net margin was relatively stable.
Over that same period, the P/E multiple expanded from about 14× to more than 20×, accounting for the bulk of the gain. ^[36]

That dynamic is exactly what some recent analysis (including Yahoo Finance commentary on HCA’s 7% weekly jump) has flagged: shareholder returns in recent years have outpaced earnings growth, implying that future returns will depend on whether the business can keep growing into its new multiple. ^[37]

Wall Street forecasts and price targets

So what do analysts and models expect from here?

Sell‑side analyst consensus

Across major broker and data platforms, the picture is broadly consistent:

MarketBeat:
- Consensus rating: “Moderate Buy.”
- Analyst mix: a clear majority of Buy ratings, with the remainder Hold; few or no outright Sell recommendations.
- Average 12‑month target price: about $474.53, with estimates clustered in the high‑$300s to low‑$500s. ^[38]
- Relative to today’s ~$503 share price, that average target actually implies mid‑single‑digit downside, reflecting that the stock has run ahead of published targets.
Barchart:
- Among 26 covering analysts, the consensus remains “Moderate Buy”, with an average target around $480.61 – again, slightly below the current price. ^[39]

In other words, the fundamental analyst community largely likes HCA’s business and execution but sees the stock as close to fairly valued, or modestly overvalued, at current levels after the 2025 rally.

Algorithmic and quantitative forecasts

Some quantitative and technical‑driven models paint a more optimistic short‑term picture:

CoinCodex projects that HCA could reach around $573.89 by late December 2025, implying roughly 13% upside from current levels, based primarily on pattern‑ and momentum‑based analysis. ^[40]

Such algorithmic forecasts do not fully incorporate regulatory risk, macro shocks or company‑specific news, and should be treated as speculative scenarios rather than precise predictions.

Macro and policy backdrop: why ACA matters for HCA

The hospital business is highly sensitive to insurance coverage, reimbursement rates and broader economic conditions. The recent Reuters piece about a possible extension of ACA premium subsidies is particularly relevant: ^[41]

Extending subsidies would help maintain insurance coverage for millions of Americans who purchase plans on the exchanges.
For HCA, that reduces the risk of rising uncompensated care and unfavorable shifts in payer mix, both of which can pressure margins.
Analysts quoted in the article argued that the proposal would be “favorable for healthcare services, including the hospitals”, and HCA’s shares responded by climbing more than 3% on the day.

On the flip side, HCA’s own risk disclosures emphasize ongoing uncertainties, including: ^[42]

Medicare and Medicaid rate changes and supplemental payment programs.
Labor cost inflation and staffing constraints (nurses, doctors, allied health professionals).
Potential economic slowdowns that could impact volumes.
High leverage, with over $44 billion of debt, making interest‑rate trends and refinancing conditions important to watch.

Key catalysts investors are watching next

Based on current filings, guidance and event calendars, several near‑term catalysts stand out: ^[43]

Q4 2025 earnings (expected January 23, 2026)
- Trefis cites a consensus estimate of roughly $19 billion in revenue and EPS around $7.39 for the upcoming quarter.
- The market will be watching whether HCA can reaffirm or exceed the upper end of its $27–28 EPS guidance for 2025.
Dividend ex‑date and payment
- Ex‑dividend on December 15, 2025 and payment on December 29, 2025 may draw income‑oriented investors who want exposure to the hospital space with a growth tilt.
Buyback pace in Q4 and 2026
- With billions still available under its authorization, any acceleration or slowdown in repurchases could meaningfully affect EPS growth and per‑share valuation, especially given the stock’s elevated multiple.
Policy developments on ACA subsidies and Medicaid
- Any concrete action from the White House or Congress on extending ACA premium tax credits, as well as state‑level Medicaid changes, will likely move hospital stocks including HCA.
Industry conferences and presentations
- HCA has recently presented at the Stephens Annual Investment Conference and other Wall Street events, using these platforms to reinforce its growth story and capital allocation strategy. Transcript commentary can shape sentiment around volume trends, wage pressures and capital spending plans. ^[44]

Bottom line: how the story looks on December 1, 2025

Putting it all together:

Fundamentals are strong. HCA is delivering high‑single‑digit revenue growth, double‑digit EPS growth, and robust cash flow, all while investing heavily in its network and technology. ^[45]
Guidance is moving up, not down. Management’s October guidance hike for 2025 – especially the jump in expected EPS to $27–28 – underpins much of the optimism reflected in recent coverage. ^[46]
The stock has rerated sharply. A combination of earnings growth and multiple expansion has driven year‑to‑date returns above 70%, leaving HCA trading at a premium to its own history but still at a discount to broader market cash‑flow multiples. ^[47]
Analysts like the business but see limited near‑term upside. Most sell‑side targets now sit in the mid‑$470s to high‑$480s, slightly below today’s price. That implies expectations are high and upside may depend on further beats or new policy tailwinds. ^[48]
Institutional ownership is heavy and still net supportive. While some smaller funds are trimming, large asset managers and sovereign funds have built substantial positions, and HCA itself is an aggressive buyer of its own stock. ^[49]

For long‑term investors, HCA looks like a classic high‑quality, capital‑intensive compounder: dominant scale, strong cash flows, disciplined capital allocation and a modest but growing dividend – all tempered by regulatory risk, high leverage and cyclical elements in healthcare demand.

For short‑term traders, the setup is more nuanced: the stock is over‑extended technically but still in a strong uptrend, with algorithms and momentum strategies pointing to further upside while consensus price targets send a more cautious signal.

As always, this article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Anyone considering HCA stock should evaluate their own risk tolerance, time horizon and portfolio context – and, ideally, read HCA’s latest SEC filings and conference‑call transcripts before making decisions.