NEW YORK, July 7, 2026, 08:25 (EDT)
- International Business Machines Corporation NYSE:IBM gained 1.02% to $302.59 before the bell after climbing 3.45% Monday to $299.52.
- BofA Securities raised its IBM price target to $330, up from $315. For Confluent, its Q2 estimate is $340 million, which makes up 1.9% of BofA’s $18.0 billion revenue call.
- The NYSE core session was still closed as of the dateline. The exchange’s core trading is from 9:30 a.m. to 4 p.m. ET. July 7 isn’t a NYSE holiday in 2026.
International Business Machines Corporation NYSE:IBM was trading up ahead of Tuesday’s bell, after a quantum deal brought some lift on Monday. But the focus now is if the Confluent acquisition’s smaller revenue chunk could put IBM’s software outlook on the low side.
IBM finished Monday at $299.52, up 3.45% and logging a sixth day higher. A later MarketWatch quote showed the stock at $302.59 as of 6:57 a.m. EDT Tuesday, still trading around 9% below its 52-week high of $332.46. Monday’s volume hit 7.18 million shares, about 84% of the 65-day average.
| IBM price readout | Figure | Market read |
|---|---|---|
| Monday close | $299.52, up 3.45% | Strongest single-day jump in the recent streak |
| Tuesday premarket quote | $302.59, up 1.02% | Stock kept gaining ahead of the NYSE open |
| Gap to 52-week high | 9.0% below $332.46 | Hasn’t matched the early-June high |
| Monday volume | 7.18 mln shares | Came in under the 65-day average of 8.59 mln |
BofA Securities, Bank of America’s NYSE:BAC brokerage unit, is still backing the bullish case. Analyst Wamsi Mohan bumped his IBM price target to $330 from $315 and maintained a buy. In a note to clients, Mohan predicted a “solid quarter and guidance raise” for the company’s report later this month. He also pointed to possible upside from “faster Confluent synergies and stronger growth in software and power and storage in infrastructure.” IBM has July 22 as the early date for its Q2 report. Investor’s Business Daily
The $330 price target sits just 10.2% above where shares ended on Monday. BofA is estimating Q2 revenue of $340 million from Confluent. That’s 1.9% of its full-year revenue call of $18.0 billion. If IBM can bump guidance on revenue and free cash flow, investors may start to see March’s Confluent deal as more than a small add-on.
| BofA IBM model item | Figure | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price target | $330, from $315 | Implied 10.2% upside to Monday’s close |
| Q2 revenue estimate | $18.0 bln | Sets July 22 bar |
| Q2 Confluent estimate | $340 mln | Comes to 1.9% of IBM’s Q2 sales forecast |
| Organic revenue growth | 3.2% | Tracks core demand |
| Organic software growth | 6% | Key to guidance raise |
IBM’s base numbers back this up. Revenue was up 9% in Q1 to $15.9 billion, software revenue climbed 11% to $7.1 billion, Red Hat was up 13%, and IBM Z jumped 51%. IBM said it still sees over 5% constant-currency revenue growth for 2026 and about a $1 billion year-over-year boost in free cash flow. CEO Arvind Krishna said “AI continues to be a tailwind” for the company. IBM Newsroom
Confluent is the new piece in that guide. IBM wrapped up the buy in March, paying $31 a share in cash, which put Confluent’s enterprise value near $11 billion. Sanjeev Mohan, principal analyst at SanjMo, said the move from pilot AI work to real production revealed a data gap: “AI agents and automated workflows don’t operate on historical data”; they rely on “live operational signals.” IBM Newsroom
IBM put out new z17 and LinuxONE 5 hardware Tuesday, adding rack-mount and single-frame systems to its Z and LinuxONE lineup. The new models can handle up to 82 cores and 18 TB of memory, which is about 20% more cores and 12% more memory than before. IBM plans to start shipping these systems Aug. 12. “The number of mission-critical workloads is rising at an incredible pace,” said Tom McPherson, who runs IBM Z and LinuxONE. IBM Newsroom
| New IBM systems item | Figure | Stock read |
|---|---|---|
| Cores | Up to 82 | Denser, more compact systems |
| Memory | Up to 18 TB | Mainframe refresh story |
| Core count gain | About 20% | Supports new hardware cycle |
| Memory gain | About 12% | Pitch to data centers for efficiency |
| Availability | Aug. 12, 2026 | Checks for revenue in the back half |
IBM is pointing to a cost angle in its hardware sales talk. The company referenced CBRE Group Inc’s NYSE:CBRE 2026 data-center report to show rents above $400 per kW/month and vacancies at all-time lows. BofA projects a 2% decline in IBM infrastructure sales for Q2 at constant currency, but IBM’s compact z17 line lets the company make the case the hardware cycle isn’t done yet.
Quantum led Monday’s headlines. IBM, Oak Ridge National Laboratory and Cleveland Clinic said they used quantum computers to calculate nine molecular configurations of FLiBe, which is used in tritium extraction for fusion fuel. Tom Beck at ORNL called quantum computers “key tools” for discovery and design; IBM’s Jerry Chow said the study shows quantum-centric supercomputing is a “practical scientific tool” now. IBM Newsroom
IBM is getting some breathing room from the broader market. Nasdaq 100 futures slipped 0.98% as of 6:47 a.m. ET Tuesday, tracking a drop in chip stocks. Dow futures edged up 0.18%. Microsoft Corp NASDAQ:MSFT, Salesforce Inc NYSE:CRM, and IBM all moved higher with other software shares. Richard Hunter at interactive investor said that for AI, the question is “whether the level of earnings can be maintained” after major spending from hyperscalers. Reuters
All eyes are on IBM’s next earnings. The stock climbed back to its June peak. Now, July 22 will show if Confluent, Red Hat, and z17 sales are enough to back up the company’s software narrative.
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