Intuit Stock (INTU) Before the Bell on November 17, 2025: Earnings Countdown, AI Push and Valuation Risks

As the U.S. stock market prepares to open on Monday, November 17, 2025, Intuit Inc. (NASDAQ: INTU) enters the week at a pivotal moment: the stock is trading well below its summer highs, a major earnings report is scheduled for Thursday, and the company is rolling out aggressive AI-driven products and partnerships that haven’t fully translated into share-price momentum yet. ^[1]

Below is a concise briefing on what traders and longer-term investors may want to know about Intuit stock before today’s market open.

Key takeaways on Intuit (INTU) before Monday’s open

Last close: Intuit finished Friday, Nov. 14 at $662.41, up 1.89% on the day but still about 18.6% below its 52-week high of $813.70 set on July 30. ^[2]
Valuation: The stock trades around 48x trailing earnings and roughly 28–29x forward earnings, a premium to the broader software group’s ~24–33x forward P/E, even after a multiple compression since midsummer. ^[3]
Big catalyst this week: Intuit reports Q1 fiscal 2026 results after the close on Thursday, Nov. 20, 2025, with Wall Street expecting EPS of about $3.10 on $3.76 billion in revenue, versus management’s non‑GAAP EPS guidance of $3.05–$3.12 and revenue growth of 14–15%. ^[4]
Growth backdrop: For fiscal 2025 (year ended July 31), Intuit grew revenue 16% to $18.8 billion and GAAP EPS 31% to $13.67, with strong contributions from QuickBooks, Credit Karma, and AI‑enabled services like TurboTax Live. ^[5]
Guidance overhang: August guidance for Q1 and FY 2026 came in below analyst expectations, largely tied to Mailchimp softness and lower average revenue per TurboTax user, which triggered a sharp selloff despite strong Q4 results. ^[6]
AI & platform story: Intuit has unveiled “Intuit Intelligence”, new AI agents across QuickBooks and an agentic consumer platform that ties TurboTax and Credit Karma together, and is now rolling these AI agents out globally (including the UK and Canada) plus into mid‑market ERP via Intuit Enterprise Suite. ^[7]
Street view: Despite some target cuts, consensus remains bullish. A sample of analyst data shows an average rating between “Moderate Buy” and “Strong Buy” and 12‑month price targets clustered around $790–$810, implying ~20–23% upside from Friday’s close. ^[8]

1. Intuit stock recap: how INTU is trading into the new week

On Friday, November 14, 2025, Intuit shares rose 1.89% to close at $662.41, outperforming a slightly negative S&P 500 session. Even with that gain, the stock remains 18.6% below its 52-week high of $813.70, reached on July 30. Trading volume of about 1.4 million shares was below the 50‑day average near 1.8 million, suggesting modest interest rather than a surge of new positioning. ^[9]

Recent data from multiple sources puts Intuit’s market capitalization around $185 billion, with a trailing P/E ratio near 48x and a forward P/E in the high‑20s, significantly above the broader application‑software group and the S&P 500. ^[10]

Intuit also offers a modest income component: the company recently raised its quarterly dividend to $1.20 per share (annualized $4.80), which equates to a yield of roughly 0.7% at current prices after a 15% boost approved alongside Q4 results. ^[11]

From a short‑term technical standpoint, investors are watching whether INTU can hold the mid‑$600s area – a level where the stock has repeatedly bounced since the post‑earnings drop in late August – while remaining clearly below the $700+ range it occupied for much of early 2025. ^[12]

2. Big near‑term catalyst: Q1 fiscal 2026 earnings on November 20

The single most important event for Intuit this week is Thursday’s Q1 FY 2026 earnings report.

Timing: Results for the quarter ended October 31, 2025 are due after the market close on November 20, with a conference call scheduled for 1:30 p.m. Pacific that day. ^[13]
Company guidance:
- Revenue growth: 14–15% year over year
- GAAP EPS: $1.19–$1.26
- Non‑GAAP EPS: $3.05–$3.12 ^[14]
Street expectations:
- Consensus EPS: ~$3.10
- Consensus revenue: ~$3.76 billion ^[15]

This setup means Intuit’s own guidance is broadly aligned with earnings expectations but slightly light on revenue versus where analysts wanted to see growth, a key reason the stock sold off after the August guidance update. ^[16]

Heading into the print, investors will be focused less on Q1 “beat or miss” in isolation and more on:

Any revision to FY 2026 guidance (especially around Mailchimp and the consumer platform). ^[17]
Updated commentary on AI monetization and how quickly AI agents and Intuit Intelligence are driving incremental revenue or upsell. ^[18]
Early tax‑season indicators from the combined Consumer + Credit Karma business, now managed as a single segment starting August 1, 2025. ^[19]

3. Fiscal 2025 results: a strong baseline for growth

Before worrying about the guidance overhang, it’s worth remembering that Intuit’s underlying business is coming off a robust year.

For fiscal 2025 (ended July 31):

Total revenue: up 16% to $18.8 billion
GAAP operating income: up 36% to about $4.9 billion
GAAP EPS: up 31% to $13.67
Non‑GAAP EPS: up 19% to $20.15 ^[20]

Segment‑level performance was similarly strong:

Global Business Solutions (QuickBooks + ecosystem): revenue grew 16% for the year to $11.1 billion; the Online Ecosystem portion grew 20%. Excluding Mailchimp, that online growth would have been about 25%, underscoring how healthy the core QuickBooks franchise remains. ^[21]
Consumer (TurboTax & related) revenue rose 10%, with TurboTax Live up 47%, now representing roughly 41% of Consumer revenue. However, total U.S. TurboTax units fell 2%, reflecting a deliberate shift away from lower‑revenue customers. ^[22]
Credit Karma revenue climbed 32% for the year and 34% in Q4, driven by personal loan, credit card and auto‑insurance demand. ^[23]

Q4 2025 itself saw 20% revenue growth to $3.83 billion, with adjusted EPS of $2.75, topping consensus estimates and demonstrating the core platform’s resilience even as parts of the portfolio slowed. ^[24]

This strong operating profile helped Intuit secure an upgrade to an ‘A’ credit rating from S&P Global Ratings in October, with the agency citing expectations for continued low‑teens revenue growth and robust profitability into fiscal 2026. ^[25]

4. Guidance, Mailchimp and TurboTax: the key overhangs on the stock

So why is INTU still trading nearly 20% below its summer high despite those strong fundamentals?

The answer lies largely in August’s guidance and product‑specific headwinds, especially around Mailchimp and TurboTax.

In late August, Intuit guided Q1 revenue growth to 14–15%, below the roughly 16.1% growth Wall Street had penciled in, and set FY 2026 GAAP EPS guidance at $15.49–$15.69, also under consensus at the time. ^[26]
Management highlighted slowing Mailchimp performance, including a slight revenue decline in Q4, and acknowledged that small businesses “found it a bit harder to use,” affecting retention and expansion. ^[27]
Intuit also reported a 2% decline in total U.S. TurboTax units to 39.2 million, explaining that it is “yielding share” among lower‑value customers in favor of higher ARPR (average revenue per return) filers. That strategy supports margins but raises questions about volume growth and competitive pressure. ^[28]

The result: even though Q4 and FY 2025 numbers beat expectations, shares dropped about 7% in premarket trading on August 22 and have struggled to revisit the $800+ area since. ^[29]

Heading into this week, investors will be watching closely for:

Signs that Mailchimp’s revenue trend is stabilizing or reaccelerating, especially as it is increasingly integrated into QuickBooks and the wider Intuit platform. ^[30]
Evidence that the TurboTax strategy – trading low‑value customers for higher‑value Live and premium users – continues to expand revenue and profit, not just EPS via mix shifts. ^[31]

5. AI agents, Intuit Intelligence and the platform strategy

A big part of the bullish long‑term case for Intuit revolves around its AI and “all‑in‑one platform” strategy. Over the past few months, the company has accelerated announcements on this front:

Intuit Intelligence: In late October, Intuit unveiled a “revolutionary system of intelligence” that unifies data across customers, payments, payroll, accounting and tax, and powers a virtual team of AI agents and human experts for businesses and accountants. ^[32]
Agentic consumer platform: On November 6, Intuit showcased an AI‑driven consumer platform that deeply integrates TurboTax and Credit Karma, promising “done‑for‑you” experiences that automate tax filing, credit building, debt repayment, and everyday financial decisions using AI agents plus human experts. ^[33]
QuickBooks AI agents go global: On November 14, Intuit announced the global availability of AI agents on its all‑in‑one platform for UK and Canadian QuickBooks customers, offering AI agents for accounting, customers, finance and tax/VAT that the company claims can save businesses up to 12 hours a month on routine tasks. ^[34]
Intelligent automations: Earlier in the year, Intuit launched Intelligent Automations in QuickBooks to streamline accounting, payments and compliance across international markets, reinforcing its push toward fully automated back‑office workflows. ^[35]
Mid‑market ERP & partnerships: Intuit has been pushing Intuit Enterprise Suite, an AI‑native ERP solution aimed at mid‑market companies, and recently announced partnerships with Cherry Bekaert and Aprio to deliver AI‑powered advisory and ERP implementations for growing businesses. ^[36]

This wave of announcements underpins management’s narrative that Intuit is evolving from a tax‑software company into a full platform of AI‑driven financial and business services across consumers, small businesses, and mid‑market enterprises.

However, some market commentators note that these product launches haven’t yet translated into a sustained re‑rating of the stock, with one Jim Cramer–linked commentary even remarking that a “brand new program” at Intuit he viewed positively “has not done anything for the stock” so far. ^[37]

For Thursday’s earnings call – and thus for how the stock trades this week – investors will be listening for concrete metrics around AI adoption:

Uptake rates for AI agents in QuickBooks and Enterprise Suite
Revenue contribution or attach rates related to Intuit Intelligence features
Any updated data on customer time‑savings or monetization that can support premium pricing and deeper wallet share

6. Analyst sentiment and valuation going into the week

Despite August’s wobble, Wall Street remains broadly constructive on Intuit.

One composite of 18 analysts shows an average rating of “Strong Buy” with a 12‑month price target around $812, about 22–23% above Friday’s close. ^[38]
MarketBeat’s compilation lists an average rating of “Moderate Buy” with a target near $792, based on a mix of buy, hold and a small number of sell ratings. Several firms – including Royal Bank of Canada, Stifel, Morgan Stanley and others – maintain bullish or overweight ratings even after trimming price targets post‑guidance. ^[39]

On the other hand, valuation is a recurring concern:

Multiple data providers peg Intuit’s trailing P/E around 48x and forward P/E about 28–29x, with some recent analysis highlighting that this sits well above software peers (often in the mid‑20s) and above the company’s own “fair” historical multiple. ^[40]
Articles and research notes over the past few days emphasize that while Intuit has attractive growth and durable franchises, its premium multiple leaves less room for error if Mailchimp or consumer trends disappoint again. ^[41]

From a fundamental risk perspective:

Intuit’s balance sheet remains solid, with cash and investments around $4.6 billion and total debt of $6.0 billion at the end of FY 2025. ^[42]
The company has an active capital‑return program, having repurchased about $2.8 billion of stock in FY 2025 and authorizing an additional $3.2 billion in buybacks, lifting total authorization to $5.3 billion. ^[43]
Independent data suggests over 80% of the float is held by institutions, with insiders owning a low‑single‑digit percentage and having sold modest amounts in recent months, which is typical for a mature large‑cap tech name. ^[44]

Taken together, the setup is classic “high‑quality, but not cheap”: strong fundamentals and secular tailwinds, but a valuation that requires continued execution on both AI and core businesses.

7. What to watch on Intuit stock before today’s opening bell

Heading into the November 17, 2025 open, here are the main questions likely on traders’ and investors’ minds:

Will pre‑earnings positioning push INTU higher or lower?
With earnings only a few days away and implied volatility elevated in many growth names, some investors may reduce exposure, while others may look for pre‑call upside if they believe guidance risk is already priced in.
Does Mailchimp show signs of stabilization?
Any early hints – whether from channel checks, commentary or competitor data – that Mailchimp’s performance is bottoming could ease one of the main overhangs from August. ^[45]
Are AI initiatives starting to show up in numbers, not just press releases?
The market has seen a flurry of AI‑related announcements — Intuit Intelligence, global AI agents, and mid‑market ERP partnerships. Investors will want clarity on how much of this is incremental revenue and margin versus simply product refresh. ^[46]
Will management tweak FY 2026 guidance?
Even a modest upward adjustment to the revenue or EPS ranges, or a narrowing of the bands toward the high end, could reshape the risk‑reward narrative for 2026. Conversely, any further softening, especially tied to consumer or Mailchimp, would likely validate the cautious stance implied by the current valuation debate. ^[47]
How comfortable are rating agencies and big institutions?
S&P’s upgrade to ‘A’ underscores confidence in Intuit’s cash generation and balance sheet. Combined with heavy institutional ownership, that may help buffer extreme downside, but doesn’t eliminate the risk of a multiple reset if growth slows. ^[48]

Bottom line

Before the market opens on November 17, 2025, Intuit stands at an interesting crossroads:

It is executing well operationally, posting double‑digit revenue growth, expanding margins and returning capital to shareholders. ^[49]
It is aggressively rolling out AI agents, an integrated consumer platform, and mid‑market ERP partnerships to deepen its moat. ^[50]
Yet, the stock still carries a rich valuation and a guidance‑driven overhang, particularly tied to Mailchimp and TurboTax trends.

For investors and traders watching INTU into today’s open, the key question is whether Thursday’s earnings and guidance can re‑ignite confidence in the long‑term AI and platform story – or whether the market will continue to demand a discount until Mailchimp, TurboTax volumes and AI monetization all line up more convincingly.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Always do your own research or consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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