Japan Stock Market Opening Preview for Nov. 25, 2025: Nikkei Futures, BOJ Rate Hike Bets, Rapidus Funding and China Travel Boycott in Focus

Japan’s cash equity market reopens on Tuesday, November 25, 2025, after Monday’s holiday — and it’s coming back into a very different world than the one traders left at the end of last week.

Wall Street has just logged another powerful tech-led rally on rising expectations of a December U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut. ^[1] The Japanese yen is hovering near 10‑month lows around ¥156–157 per dollar, keeping FX intervention risk firmly on the radar. ^[2] At home, a fresh GDP shock, a “Sell Japan” narrative around government debt, big new money for chip champion Rapidus, and early signs of another year of hefty wage hikes are all colliding ahead of the next Bank of Japan (BOJ) policy meeting. ^[3]

Here’s what investors need to know before the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) opening bell on Tuesday.

1. Where Japan Stocks Stand After the Holiday Break

Last cash close: Nikkei under pressure

Japan’s equity market was closed on Monday, November 24, for the Labor Thanksgiving Day substitute holiday. The last cash session was Friday, when:

Nikkei 225 finished around 48,625.88, down about 2.4% on the day.
Topix ended near 3,298, almost flat but slightly weaker. ^[4]

That left the Nikkei roughly 5% below its late‑October record highs above 51,000, as profit-taking and concerns over Japan’s fiscal outlook, higher bond yields and the weaker yen weighed on risk appetite. TS2 Tech+1

Earlier in the week, the index had already suffered a one‑day drop of about 3%, its biggest fall since April, alongside a sharp slide in the yen and a spike in long‑dated Japanese government bond (JGB) yields. ^[5] That “triple hit” — stocks, bonds and currency — underpins the growing “Sell Japan” narrative.

Futures signal modestly firmer open — but volatility risk is high

While cash equities rested on Monday, Nikkei 225 futures on overseas markets continued trading:

December Nikkei futures on major international platforms traded in a 48,650–49,600 band during Monday’s session, above Friday’s close of roughly 48,800. ^[6]

That range points to a cautiously positive bias into Tuesday’s open, helped by stronger global risk sentiment, but also highlights how jumpy positioning has become: intraday swings of nearly 2% in futures are now common.

2. Global Lead-In: Wall Street Rally and Softer Dollar

U.S. stocks extend Fed-driven rebound

The strongest external cue for Tokyo on Tuesday will be Monday’s U.S. close. All three major U.S. indices advanced sharply:

Dow Jones: +0.65%
S&P 500: +1.65%
Nasdaq Composite: +2.70% ^[7]

The rally was driven by:

Rising odds (around 80%) that the Fed will cut rates by 25 bps at its December 9–10 meeting, according to futures pricing. ^[8]
Strong performance in mega-cap U.S. tech and AI‑linked names, which pushed the Nasdaq higher and eased some valuation jitters. ^[9]

For Japanese investors, this combination typically supports high‑beta tech and growth stocks such as chip equipment makers and internet names, while also underpinning broader risk sentiment.

Asia and Europe mostly in risk-on mode

In Monday trading outside Japan:

Major Asian benchmarks such as Hang Seng and Kospi gained ground, riding the U.S. risk-on wave. ^[10]
European indices also traded higher as rate‑cut hopes firmed and U.S. futures extended gains. ^[11]

This global backdrop is supportive for a firm Tokyo open — but the local macro story (yen, bonds, politics) may still dominate intraday moves.

Oil and commodities: Relief for an energy importer

Oil prices, which matter for Japan’s import bill and inflation outlook, rebounded on Monday:

Brent crude settled around $63.4 per barrel, up ~1.3%.
WTI crude closed near $58.8 per barrel, also up about 1.3%. ^[12]

For Japan — a net energy importer — lower‑than‑earlier-year oil and a firm dollar/weak yen mix is a double‑edged sword: it supports exporters’ earnings but squeezes households and energy‑intensive sectors via imported inflation.

3. Yen Near 10-Month Lows, BOJ Rate Hike Bets and Intervention Risk

USD/JPY back in the danger zone

The Japanese yen started the week under pressure again:

USD/JPY traded around ¥156.8 late Monday, not far from last week’s 10‑month high near ¥157.9. ^[13]

Traders see increasing risk that authorities might step in if the pair climbs into the ¥158–162 region, especially during thin holiday liquidity. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama has already warned that the government is “alarmed” by one‑sided forex moves and will monitor markets with a “high sense of urgency”. ^[14]

A weaker yen is usually positive for exporters but negative for:

Domestic‑demand and import‑reliant names (retailers, airlines, utilities).
Foreign investors worried about FX translation losses and possible sudden spikes if Japan intervenes.

BOJ: December hike very much “live”

The Bank of Japan is moving closer to another rate hike:

Governor Kazuo Ueda recently signaled that the BOJ is considering a December hike, noting that a weak yen could push underlying inflation higher. ^[15]
BOJ board member Kazuyuki Masu told Nikkei that the bank is “close” to raising rates and will not wait until after spring 2026 wage negotiations conclude — strongly implying the Dec. 18–19 meeting is in play. ^[16]
Other board members have already voted for hikes at recent meetings, suggesting a growing hawkish camp on the nine‑member board. ^[17]

Markets are now pricing a material probability of a December move or an early‑2026 hike at the latest, with yen and JGB yields trading accordingly.

For equities, this creates a classic tug of war:

A move away from negative real rates could support banks and insurers, which benefit from steeper yield curves.
High‑growth and richly valued tech, property and defensive yield plays may face valuation pressure as discount rates rise.

2026 wage talks: The missing piece of the puzzle

The key variable for the BOJ is wage growth:

Early indications for 2026 wage negotiations point to another year of robust pay hikes, despite profit headwinds from U.S. tariffs. ^[18]
The powerful Rengo union confederation (7 million members) is seeking 5%+ pay rises, similar to this year’s agreements, which delivered the biggest wage gains in 34 years. ^[19]
A Reuters poll cited in that report found roughly 70%+ of firms expect to lift wages about as much as in 2025, with some employers (like restaurant chain Watami) committing to multi‑year annual hikes of around 7% for full‑time staff. ^[20]

If these wage expectations materialize, they would strengthen the case for BOJ tightening, even as real wages remain negative for now. ^[21]

Bottom line for Tuesday:
Rates and FX traders will stay glued to USD/JPY and JGB yields; any fresh comments from BOJ officials or government figures could trigger sharp intraday moves in banks, insurers, exporters and domestic consumption stocks.

4. Macro Backdrop: GDP Shock, U.S. Tariffs and a Fragile Recovery

Q3 GDP: First contraction in six quarters

Japan’s economy shrank in the third quarter for the first time in six quarters:

Real GDP contracted at an annualised 1.8% in July–September. ^[22]
The main drag was a sharp drop in exports, as new U.S. tariffs bit into shipments, particularly autos. ^[23]
On a quarter‑on‑quarter basis, GDP fell 0.4%, after gains in the previous two quarters. ^[24]

Under the U.S.–Japan Framework Agreement, Washington has imposed a baseline 15% tariff on almost all Japanese imports, including autos, pharma and machinery, putting sustained pressure on Japan’s export‑driven manufacturing base. ^[25]

Economists still expect a return to modest positive growth in the current quarter, helped by resilient domestic demand and fiscal stimulus, but the margin for error is getting thin.

Trade data: Some relief from October exports

There is at least a glimmer of good news:

Official data showed October exports rose 3.6% year‑on‑year, beating forecasts, even as shipments to the U.S. fell around 3%. ^[26]

That suggests the worst of the immediate tariff shock may be easing, but the risk is that subsequent rounds of policy or retaliatory measures could re‑ignite export stress.

5. Politics, Debt Fears and the “Sell Japan” Narrative

Takaichi’s stimulus vs. market nerves

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, who took office in October, has signalled an aggressive fiscal stance:

The government recently approved an economic package worth around ¥21.3 trillion (about $135 billion) to help households cope with rising costs and to support growth. ^[27]
Analysts worry that more debt‑financed spending will compound Japan’s already massive public debt, which CGTN notes is projected to reach about 249% of GDP, with interest payments taking over 13% of tax revenues. ^[28]

Bond markets have taken notice:

The benchmark 10‑year JGB yield has climbed above 1.8%, the highest in nearly 17 years, while 30‑year yields have hit multi‑decade highs. ^[29]

Those moves underpin fears of a “triple blow” to Japan’s financial markets — falling stocks, rising yields, and a weak currency — and have fuelled global commentary about a “Sell Japan” trade. ^[30]

For Tuesday trading, this backdrop matters especially for:

Banks & insurers, which tend to benefit from higher yields but are exposed to mark‑to‑market losses on bond portfolios.
Highly leveraged corporates and rate‑sensitive sectors like real estate, which may see valuations pressured if yields drift higher.

China–Japan tensions and a tourism shock

Geopolitics has added another layer of risk:

After Takaichi said a Chinese attack on Taiwan that threatens Japan’s survival could trigger a Japanese military response, Beijing urged its citizens not to travel to Japan, sparking a China‑led tourism boycott. ^[31]
A Reuters report estimates the boycott could cost Japan around ¥2.2 trillion (≈$14.2 billion) annually, with one Tokyo tour operator losing 80% of its year‑end bookings almost overnight. ^[32]
Tourism accounts for roughly 7% of Japan’s GDP, and visitors from mainland China and Hong Kong contribute about 20% of arrivals, making these cancellations particularly painful. ^[33]

Travel‑related and consumer plays — airlines, railways, department stores, duty‑free retailers, hotels and regional tourism names — may remain under pressure at Tuesday’s open as investors re‑price earnings expectations.

6. Semiconductors and Tech: Rapidus, Strategic Tech Push and AI Tailwinds

Government doubles down on Rapidus

Japan is escalating its bet on domestic advanced chipmaking via Rapidus Corp:

The government plans to invest over ¥1 trillion in Rapidus between fiscal 2026 and 2027 through capital injections and subsidies, aiming to secure domestic production of 2‑nanometre chips by the second half of fiscal 2027 and to move toward 1.4 nm and 1 nm processes thereafter. ^[34]
Industry ministry officials have already decided on an initial ¥100 billion equity investment this fiscal year, giving the state a controlling stake. ^[35]
Rapidus announced on November 21 that it has been selected as the official business operator under a government program to secure stable production of high‑speed logic chips. ^[36]
The company is targeting a listing around fiscal 2031, according to recent reports, framing this as a long‑term national‑security and competitiveness play. ^[37]

This massive public support is good news for Japan’s broader semiconductor ecosystem, including:

Equipment makers such as Tokyo Electron,
Materials suppliers like JSR,
And research partners in Europe and North America. ^[38]

But it also raises questions about:

Fiscal sustainability,
State influence over capital allocation,
And whether private investors will eventually earn attractive returns.

Strategic tech list: AI, nuclear fusion and more

Adding to the tech theme, reports say the government plans to name AI, nuclear fusion and other cutting‑edge areas as “strategic technology fields”, likely unlocking additional support and favourable policy. ^[39]

Tech and AI‑linked stocks in Tokyo could therefore see continued policy‑driven interest, particularly after Monday’s powerful U.S. tech rally — but valuations and rising Japanese rates remain key constraints.

7. Key Sectors to Watch at Tuesday’s Open

1. Exporters and automakers

Why it matters now

Beneficiaries of the weak yen (USD/JPY ~156–157). ^[40]
Directly exposed to U.S. tariffs and slowing global demand. ^[41]

What to watch

Auto majors (Toyota, Honda, Nissan) and industrial exporters may see mixed trading: FX tailwinds vs. tariff and demand headwinds.
Any fresh U.S.–Japan trade headlines could hit these names quickly.

2. Banks, brokers and insurers

Why it matters now

Rising JGB yields and growing likelihood of a BOJ hike in December or early 2026. ^[42]
Recent earnings showed Japan’s megabanks enjoyed double‑digit profit growth in April–September on higher rates and wider spreads. ^[43]

What to watch

Megabank groups and major insurers could outperform if yields grind higher.
However, any spike in yields could revive concerns over latent bond‑valuation losses.

3. Semiconductors, AI and high‑growth tech

Why it matters now

Rapidus funding drive and government shift toward AI and strategic tech fields. ^[44]
Strong overnight moves in U.S. chip and AI names. ^[45]

What to watch

Chip equipment makers, foundry partners and AI‑linked plays may benefit from both global and domestic catalysts, but are vulnerable to any pullback in the global AI trade or a sudden rise in Japanese yields.

4. Tourism, retail and leisure

Why it matters now

China’s travel boycott could wipe out hundreds of billions of yen in tourism spending and has already crushed bookings for some operators. ^[46]

What to watch

Airlines, hotel chains, rail operators, theme parks and department stores may remain under pressure.
Any signs of diplomatic de‑escalation, or positive commentary on alternative source markets (e.g., North America, Southeast Asia), would be a relief.

5. Domestic defensives and utilities

Why it matters now

Higher energy import costs if oil stabilises in the low‑60s per barrel. ^[47]
Prospect of BOJ tightening reduces the appeal of defensive yield plays.

What to watch

Utilities, REITs and high‑dividend “bond proxies” could lag if real yields rise further.

8. Economic Calendar: Light Tuesday, Heavier Later in the Week

For Tuesday, November 25, Japan’s domestic data calendar is relatively light:

The main scheduled release is the Corporate Service Price Index (CSPI) for October, due in the evening Japan time. ^[48]

More important macro data — including Tokyo CPI, unemployment rate, job‑to‑applicant ratio, retail trade and industrial production — arrive on Wednesday and later in the week, and will be crucial for BOJ and yen expectations. ^[49]

Globally, investors will also be watching a delayed wave of U.S. economic releases (retail sales, producer prices, durable goods, housing data) that feed into the Fed’s December decision, as highlighted in Monday’s Reuters coverage. ^[50]

9. How Traders May Frame Tuesday’s Session

Going into the open, Japan’s market narrative looks like a three‑way balancing act:

Global tailwinds
- Strong U.S. and global equity performance, rate‑cut hopes and a bounce in oil and risk assets support a higher open and better risk appetite for Japanese stocks. ^[51]
Local macro and policy cross‑currents
- Weak yen + rising JGB yields + growing BOJ hike odds will keep FX‑sensitive exporters, banks and growth stocks volatile. ^[52]
Structural and political noise
- U.S. tariffs, elevated debt, China–Japan tensions and tourism disruptions weigh on the medium‑term story and will likely show up in selective sector rotation rather than broad‑based panic. ^[53]

For active traders, Tuesday’s open will be about gauging how much of this news flow is already in the price after last week’s sell‑off — and whether the combination of global optimism and local policy shifts is enough to keep buyers in control.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own research or consult a licensed financial adviser before making trading or investment decisions.

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