Summary: Tokyo opens Thursday with bullish global cues from Wall Street’s fresh Dow record, a softer yen hovering around the politically sensitive 155 level, and Japan’s October producer prices due at 8:50 JST. Watch SoftBank, Sony, Toyota and trading houses after a run of headline‑making announcements, plus the 5‑year JGB auction at midday. Ministry of Finance Japan+3The Wall Street…
Where markets stand before the bell
- Nikkei 225 last close (Wed, Nov 12): 51,063.31. The benchmark added modestly on Wednesday, with the close confirmed by Nikkei’s official archive. indexes.nikkei.co.jp
- Nikkei futures tone: Yen‑denominated CME Nikkei November futures were last around 51,200 in late U.S. hours (about +0.2%), hinting at a steady-to-firmer open in Tokyo. CME Group
- USD/JPY: The yen weakened as far as 154.79 on Wednesday; traders are openly talking about 155 as a “line in the sand,” reviving intervention chatter. Bloomberg+1
Global lead‑in: Wall Street, Europe, oil and gold
- Wall Street: The Dow Jones closed above 48,000 for the first time (48,254.82, +0.7%), while the Nasdaq slipped and the S&P 500 was little changed. Optimism that the U.S. government shutdown is about to end outweighed weakness in big tech; AMD jumped on aggressive AI targets. The Wall Street Journal+2AP News+2
- Shutdown watch: The U.S. House reconvened for a vote late Wednesday (U.S. time) to send a Senate‑passed funding bill to the President, who signaled he would sign it—a key sentiment boost for risk assets. AP News+2Reuters+2
- Europe: The STOXX 600 and FTSE 100 both notched record closes as shutdown relief and rate‑cut hopes buoyed financials and utilities—extending the risk‑on hand‑off to Asia. Reuters+1
- Commodities:Brent hovered near $65 and WTI near $61 on Wednesday; gold eased after touching a near three‑week high as traders weighed a softer dollar and December Fed‑cut odds. Reuters+1
- U.S. rates: The 10‑year Treasury yield drifted lower into the close (around 4.07%), a supportive backdrop for equities sensitive to duration. The Wall Street Journal
Why it matters for Tokyo: A weaker yen alongside firm U.S./Europe closes typically favors exporters and cyclicals; lower U.S. yields and climbing European financials may keep Japan bank shares bid at the open. Reuters
Japan’s macro diary: what hits this morning
- 08:50 JST — Producer Prices (CGPI, Oct): Consensus has wholesale inflation easing to ~2.5% y/y; a surprise could nudge rate expectations for the Dec 19 BOJ meeting. Investing.com UK+1
- 08:50 JST — Weekly portfolio flows: The MOF’s securities flow data lands ahead of the lunch break. Ministry of Finance Japan
- 12:35 JST — 5‑year JGB auction results: About ¥2.4tn on offer; a smooth sale would help steady local yields after super‑long supply jitters earlier this year. Ministry of Finance Japan+1
Context: PM Sanae Takaichi reiterated she wants wage‑driven (not cost‑push) inflation and is preparing a stimulus that leans into growth sectors—signals that monetary tightening will remain measured even as the yen stays weak. Reuters+1
Yen watch: intervention nerves are back
Finance officials have issued fresh warnings as USD/JPY approaches 155, a zone that previously preceded action. While fundamentals argue against imminent intervention, a sharp overshoot could still trigger it. Traders should expect headline sensitivity around 154–157. Reuters
Corporate storylines likely to move stocks
- SoftBank Group (9984): Shares slid after reports it exited its Nvidia stake to bankroll more than $30bn in AI bets, even as Q2 net profit surged on Vision Fund valuation gains. Expect volatility as investors weigh a riskier AI tilt against hefty paper gains. Financial Times+1
- Sony Group (6758):Raised FY operating‑profit guidance to ¥1.43tn (+8%) and announced a buyback; strength in entertainment and chips offset tariff headwinds. Sentiment tailwind likely persists. Reuters
- Toyota (7203):Opened its North Carolina battery plant and mapped up to $10bn of U.S. investment over five years—read‑through for Toyota’s hybrid push and North American strategy. Reuters
- Mitsui & Co. (8031): Signed a 20‑year LNG SPA with Venture Global for 1 mtpa starting 2029; reinforces trading houses’ energy optionality as data‑center power demand climbs. Reuters
Sectors to watch at the open
- Semiconductors / AI complex:AMD’s surge on ambitious AI revenue targets can buoy Tokyo Electron, Advantest, and chip supply chain names tied to data‑center spending. Keep an eye on profit‑taking after recent strength. Reuters
- Banks: With European financials leading and domestic rate normalization still on the table, Japan’s megabanks (MUFG, SMFG, Mizuho) stay in focus after upbeat profit trajectories. Reuters+1
- Energy & trading houses: The Mitsui–Venture Global LNG deal underscores long‑duration supply security and could ripple across the sōgō shōsha cohort. Reuters
- Exporters: A 154–155 dollar‑yen helps autos and machinery; watch for any verbal intervention that could abruptly flip the FX tailwind. Reuters
The immediate setup for Thursday, Nov 13 (JST)
- Tone: Constructive. Nikkei futures point to a stable/firmer start; USD/JPY near 155 adds to exporter support. CME Group+1
- Key prints:CGPI at 08:50—a downside surprise would cool BOJ‑hike chatter; upside risks would do the opposite. Investing.com UK
- Watchlist: SoftBank (positioning after earnings/Nvidia exit), Sony (guidance bump follow‑through), Toyota (U.S. battery news), Mitsui (LNG contract), banks (global financials bid). Reuters+4Financial Times+4Reuters+4
One more macro note
The Reuters Tankan shows manufacturers’ sentiment at a near four‑year high in November, powered by electronics and autos—an important counterweight to tariff and growth concerns ahead of Q3 GDP on Nov 17. Reuters+1
Bottom line
Incoming Tokyo flows should start on the front foot thanks to the Dow’s fresh record, a still‑weak yen and a clean macro calendar catalyst at 8:50 JST. Keep FX headlines on your screen—155 in USD/JPY is the market’s tripwire—and watch SoftBank/Sony/Toyota/Mitsui for stock‑specific momentum into the first hour. The Wall Street Journal+1
This article is for information only and does not constitute investment advice.
