Ticker: KLAR (NYSE) – Price (Oct 10, 2025): $38.93 [1]. Market Cap: ~$27.9B [2]. IPO Price: $40 (opened at $52) [3]; 52-week high ~$57.20 [4]. Active Users: 111 M; Merchants: 790 K [5]. Recent Moves: Down ~6% in 5 days [6], ~9% month-to-date [7]. Analyst Consensus: Strong Buy (avg. target ~$53.5) [8], with major banks’ price targets in the $48–$58 range [9] [10]. Key Financials (Q2 2025): Revenue $823M, +20% YoY [11]; 5th consecutive profitable quarter (Adj. Op Income $29M) [12]; BNPL loan delinquencies improving (0.89% in Q2) [13].
Current Price & Market Data: [14]As of the last close on Oct. 10, 2025, KLAR traded at $38.93 with a market cap of $27.94B. This is below its IPO price ($40) and well below its intraday peak (~$57 in early trading) [15] [16]. In recent sessions the stock has retraced from summer highs – it’s off roughly 6.1% over the past week [17] and around 9% month-to-date [18]. Trading volume has been modest (~4M shares) [19]. Technical chartists note key support around ~$36.65 and resistance near ~$45.48, based on 6-month price action [20]. KLAR’s short-term indicators are mixed: the RSI (~37) is neutral (neither oversold nor overbought) while MACD is modestly positive, suggesting potential bottoming in the near term [21].
Recent News & Developments: KLAR has been in the headlines for both strategic partnerships and product expansion. On Oct. 9, 2025, Klarna announced a high-profile AI partnership with Google Cloud [22]. The deal will integrate Google’s Generative AI (Gemini, Vertex AI, etc.) with Klarna’s commerce platform, powering new personalized shopping and marketing tools. Klarna’s CMO David Sandström touted early pilots: “AI-driven creative concepts… boosted time spent in our app by 15% and increased orders by 50%” [23]. Google Cloud’s Marianne Janik added that the platform will “enable Klarna to unlock creative velocity and drive innovation” [24]. This move underscores Klarna’s focus on differentiating its user experience with AI (e.g. dynamic lookbooks, targeted campaigns) as competition in BNPL intensifies.
Klarna is also deepening retail partnerships. In September 2025 it won a marquee deal with Walmart: Klarna will offer its short-term loans via Walmart’s OnePay app, letting U.S. shoppers finance purchases up to 3 years (replacing Affirm’s previous role) [25]. A company spokesperson confirmed Klarna’s loans debut “later this month” in Walmart stores and online [26]. Chief Commercial Officer David Sykes explained Klarna’s aim “to be ubiquitous at the checkout” – i.e. a habitual payment choice for consumers [27]. He noted that repeat usage (making Klarna the “first choice” button) is more important than exclusivity at any one retailer [28]. Industry reports also revealed Klarna sweetened the Walmart deal by offering 15.3 million stock warrants (~$500M value) to Walmart executives [29]. Mizuho analyst Dan Dolev called this an “expensive press release,” but it reflects the lengths Klarna has gone to secure retail footholds ahead of its IPO [30].
On the financial results front, Klarna’s Q2 2025 (released Aug. 14, 2025) showed continued momentum [31]. Revenue rose to $823 million (+20% YoY) and adjusted operating income jumped to $29M, driven by 19% GMV growth [32]. CEO Sebastian Siemiatkowski noted record milestones: “$823m in revenue, 111 million active Klarna consumers, 790,000 merchants, and $1 million in revenue per employee” [33]. GMV growth was particularly strong (+38% YoY in the U.S.), and defaults stayed low (BNPL delinquency at 0.89%, improving YoY) [34]. Klarna also highlighted new products: its U.S. credit/debit card rollout and a mobile phone plan (via AT&T) as examples of its “neobank” strategy [35]. Management said the business is profitable and scaling – U.S. revenue +38% YoY – and partnerships (e.g. Stripe integration, eBay, Walmart) are accelerating reach [36].
Analyst Commentary: Wall Street analysts have generally turned bullish since KLAR’s IPO [37] [38]. On Oct. 6, 2025 Investopedia reported that Deutsche Bank, Wedbush, and BofA all initiated coverage with Buy/Outperform ratings and price targets from $48 to $51 [39]. Wedbush wrote that “we think the risk/reward is attractive for a leading global commerce network with an early opportunity in several underpenetrated regions” [40]. Bank of America highlighted Klarna’s dominance (111M consumers, 970K merchants) and expected gains from e-commerce growth [41]. Deutsche Bank pointed out Klarna’s marketing and data advantage: it estimates the $475B online ad market is even larger than card payments, and Klarna’s platform (with high-intent shoppers) could monetize ad and affiliate revenue [42].
Major brokerages echo the optimism. Goldman Sachs analysts see Klarna as “the market leader in BNPL solutions, with a particularly strong franchise in Europe” [43]. J.P. Morgan calls it a “fintech pioneer” expanding internationally [44]. Citi and KBW have similarly set lofty targets ($58 and $52, respectively) [45]. JP Morgan’s Tien Tsin Huang notes Klarna is priced below rival Affirm and is leveraging profitable long-term loans [46]. Collectively, TipRanks notes KLAR has a Strong Buy consensus (4 Buys, 1 Hold) with an average target ~$53.5 (implying ~30% upside) [47].
However, some analysts warn of near-term headwinds. Citigroup cautions that Klarna’s fast-growing “Fair Financing” business (longer-term loans) incurs higher costs and may pressure short-term profits, though margins should recover by 2026 as scale builds [48]. Morgan Stanley emphasizes the need to attract high-income, high-FICO borrowers for sustained success [49]. On valuation, lenders note Klarna still trades at a healthy discount to U.S. peers like Affirm, suggesting upside if growth continues [50].
Technical Analysis: From a chart perspective, KLAR has been in a corrective phase since late September. The recent slide took it below the 20-day and 50-day moving averages (~$41–$42), testing support around $36–37 (last seen July/August) [51]. Short-term momentum oscillators indicate a neutral-to-bullish reversal setup: RSI is ~37 (not oversold), and MACD has just turned positive, hinting at potential upward pressure [52]. If buying interest returns, technical resistance lies around ~$45 (August high) and then near $52 (IPO open price) [53]. Conversely, a break below $36 could target the IPO price near $40 and possibly the mid-$30s. Traders will watch volume: a spike on a bounce would signal conviction.
Fundamental Analysis: Klarna’s fundamentals mix growth with new risk areas. On the growth side, global e-commerce trends and Klarna’s product expansion (cards, savings, phone plans) should drive transaction volumes and revenue. Its Q2 GMV of ~$112B [54] and $1M revenue/employee metric reflect high efficiency. Partnerships (Walmart, eBay, Stripe, Shopify, etc.) are lowering customer acquisition costs and broadening market reach. Diversification into “full-service fintech” domains (debit/credit cards, deposit accounts) could increase net interest margins and fee income over time [55].
On the risk side, BNPL regulators are tightening rules globally [56]. Klarna already faced scrutiny: in 2024 Sweden’s FI fined it ~$50M for AML compliance lapses [57], a sanction CEO Siemiatkowski later contested as an unfair “police and court” structure [58]. Consumer credit quality is also under watch (though Klarna reports improving delinquency rates [59]). Moreover, rising interest rates increase funding costs for installment loans. Klarna’s pivot to other services is partly survival – “not just about growth… but survival in a market no longer defensible with pure BNPL,” as PwC’s Liam Evans put it [60]. Fierce competition from Affirm, Block/Afterpay and even banks means Klarna must execute flawlessly on its “neobank” strategy to justify its valuation.
Outlook & Forecast: In the near term, stock performance will track overall market sentiment and any IPO-related selling. Klarna’s high-profile partnerships and continued profitability (a rare public fintech earning operating income) are positive catalysts. A holiday retail season boost in e-commerce could lift volumes. However, macro headwinds (consumer spending cooling) and fintech volatility may pressure shares. Analysts’ near-term targets imply a rebound into the high-$40s if growth expectations hold [61] [62].
Over the long term, Klarna’s success hinges on scaling its broader financial-services ecosystem. Many experts believe KLAR can regain or exceed its IPO highs as it monetizes new products and partnerships. Goldman Sachs expects sustained share gains, given Klarna’s “closed-loop” payment network and strong European base [63]. If Klarna captures more wallet share (including through ads and “Klarnasung” campaigns), its valuation could justify the $50–$60 range analysts suggest. Conversely, any sign of credit-quality issues or regulatory setbacks would temper its upside. As one TS2 fintech analyst noted, Klarna is positioned at the crossroads of trends – BNPL evolving into embedded banking – which could make it a major winner if the company executes on innovation [64] [65].
Further Reading: Investors can review Klarna’s latest earnings releases and presentations on its IR site [66], as well as market commentary from Reuters and financial media [67] [68]. For depth on fintech trends impacting Klarna, see TS2’s fintech reports [69] [70].
References
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