Lithium Americas (LAC) Stock Skyrockets ~100% as U.S. Eyes Stake – What’s Next for Thacker Pass?

• Shares Double on Government Stake Rumors: Lithium Americas Corp (NYSE: LAC) stock surged nearly 96% in one day on September 24, 2025, after reports that the U.S. government may take a 10% equity stake in the company’s Thacker Pass lithium project ^[1]. The stock closed around $6.01 (up from $3.07), its highest level in over a year, on record trading volume (~289 million shares vs ~7 million average) ^[2].
• DOE Loan Renegotiation: The U.S. Department of Energy’s $2.26 billion loan for Thacker Pass is under renegotiation, with discussions of additional conditions and a possible government stake as “corresponding consideration” ^[3]. Lithium Americas confirmed it is in talks with the DOE and partner General Motors (GM) about first loan draw conditions ^[4]. GM already owns 38% of the project after a $625 million investment, and has rights to the mine’s initial lithium output ^[5].
• Market Reaction & Momentum: The government’s interest in Lithium Americas ignited a sector-wide rally. Peer lithium miners jumped in sympathy (e.g. Sigma Lithium soared 7% ^[6]), as investors wagered on stronger U.S. support for battery metals. Retail enthusiasm spiked: online sentiment for LAC turned “extremely bullish” after the news ^[7]. Analysts noted the unprecedented surge marked LAC’s best session ever ^[8].
• Analyst Views – Confidence vs. Caution: Experts say a federal stake validates Thacker Pass’s prospects. Jefferies analysts noted that government equity support can boost project financing and returns on invested capital ^[9]. TD Cowen said a U.S. stake would “lend credence” to completing and expanding Thacker Pass (multiple phases, improved economics) ^[10]. However, after LAC’s ~96% spike, TD Cowen downgraded the stock to “Hold” – arguing the valuation now fully prices in the good news ^[11]. The firm kept its $5 price target (implying downside from current levels) and noted Lithium Americas remains pre-revenue until at least 2028 ^[12].
• Thacker Pass Outlook & Challenges: Thacker Pass, in Nevada, is slated to be North America’s largest lithium source once operational ^[13]. The mine holds the world’s largest known lithium reserve and is 62%-owned by Lithium Americas (38% by GM) ^[14]. Construction is underway (nearly 2,000 jobs expected) after courts upheld federal permits in 2023 despite environmental/tribal challenges ^[15]. Phase 1 production (~40,000 tonnes/year) is targeted for 2028 ^[16], so the company must bridge a multi-year development period. The DOE loan, approved under the Trump Administration and finalized under Biden, is key to funding the ~$2+ billion project ^[17]. Government negotiators reportedly want assurances that GM will buy the lithium (as agreed) to ensure the project’s viability ^[18].

Stock Price Surge and Market Reaction

Lithium Americas’ stock exploded higher in late September on an unexpected catalyst: a Reuters scoop that the U.S. government is considering taking an equity stake of up to 10% in the company ^[19]. In response, LAC nearly doubled in a single trading day, marking its biggest one-day gain ever ^[20]. The stock opened on Sept. 24 at $5.05 (a huge gap up from the prior $3.07 close) and at one point hit $6.30 before finishing around $6.01 ^[21]. This ~95% jump put shares at a 17-month high and “on track for its biggest one-day gain since the company’s inception” according to market observers ^[22]. Trading activity was frenzied – roughly 289 million shares changed hands, about 40 times the typical daily volume ^[23].

Such a dramatic rally followed an initial premarket spike of over 70% after the news broke ^[24]. Notably, LAC had fallen 7% the day before on no major news ^[25], so the government stake rumor sparked a sharp reversal in market sentiment. Momentum spilled into the broader lithium sector: major producer Albemarle Corp jumped ~5% intraday (settling +1.8% by close), junior miner Sigma Lithium leapt over 7%, and Chile’s SQM rose ~2% ^{[26] [27]}. The outsized move in LAC reflects not only the specific news but also a re-rating of U.S. lithium development plays in light of potential government backing. “Markets can view equity stakes as a leading indicator of favorable ROIC … the incentive for taking equity stakes seems significantly higher than withdrawing funding,” Jefferies analysts observed, underscoring why investors piled in so aggressively ^[28].

Retail investors also swarmed the stock. Stocktwits (a social trading forum) showed “extremely bullish” sentiment readings for LAC after the announcement ^[29]. The prospect of federal involvement created a buzz around Lithium Americas as a “patriotic EV metals play”. Some traders speculated the stock could run further, given the Biden and now Trump administrations’ emphasis on domestic EV supply chains. However, more seasoned voices urged caution amid the euphoria – one JPMorgan analyst flagged that the near-doubling on a possible deal appeared overdone ^[30]. By September 25, profit-taking set in slightly, but LAC still retained most of its gains, and was up 100%+ year-to-date after this rally ^[31]. The market’s reaction clearly signals that any concrete government investment or support is seen as a game-changer for the company’s outlook.

U.S. Government Stake Talks and DOE Loan Renegotiation

The catalyst for LAC’s surge was a report that the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is negotiating new terms for its loan to Lithium Americas – including the possibility of taking an equity stake in the company ^[32]. The DOE had previously approved a $2.26 billion loan commitment for the Thacker Pass lithium project, which was finalized during President Biden’s term as part of efforts to boost domestic critical minerals production ^[33]. According to Reuters, Trump administration officials (now back in office in 2025) are discussing converting up to 10% of that loan into an ownership stake, rather than simply lending cash ^{[34] [35]}. This highly unusual step reflects Washington’s increasingly hands-on approach to securing strategic resources. It was recently revealed that the government also plans to take stakes in a major semiconductor firm (Intel) and rare-earth miner MP Materials, indicating a broader policy of direct federal investment in critical supply chains ^[36].

Lithium Americas confirmed it is in discussions with the DOE and General Motors (GM) regarding the first drawdown of the loan and “potential amendments” to the loan agreement involving “corresponding consideration” ^[37]. In plain terms, the company acknowledged the DOE is asking for additional concessions – widely reported as an equity position or profit-sharing – before it will release funds. These talks are ongoing, and as of Sept 25, no final agreement has been announced. The fact that GM is at the table highlights its role as Lithium Americas’ key partner: GM invested $650 million in early 2024 to help finance Thacker Pass, securing a 38% project stake and rights to 100% of Phase 1 lithium output for its electric vehicles ^[38]. Now, the DOE (and by extension, the U.S. government) appears to want a slice of ownership and stronger guarantees that Thacker Pass’s lithium will indeed feed U.S. supply chains ^[39]. Sources say Trump officials seek a binding commitment from GM to purchase the lithium long-term, ensuring the mine’s product is spoken for ^[40]. Such guarantees would reduce the project’s market risk and align with the government’s goal of securing domestic EV battery materials.

From the company’s perspective, a government equity stake could be a double-edged sword. On one hand, it would bring a deep-pocketed, strategically motivated partner on board – virtually assuring that the project has political support and easier access to additional funding. On the other hand, issuing a 10% stake to the DOE (or converting loan to equity) likely means diluting existing shareholders and potentially capping some upside. “Government equity, long-term offtake, and price support can derisk strategic projects,” notes analyst Mohamed Sidibe of NBCFM Research, comparing the situation to the DoD’s stake in MP Materials, “though it may dilute existing shareholders.” ^[41]. Investors seem willing to accept some dilution in exchange for de-risking – as evidenced by the stock’s surge – but this dynamic will be closely watched as negotiations proceed.

It’s worth noting that the $2.26B DOE loan is critical for Lithium Americas because the Thacker Pass project carries a massive price tag (the loan amount roughly matches the Phase 1 construction cost). Securing this low-interest financing was a major win for LAC, and renegotiating its terms shows how vital the project is deemed to U.S. interests. The loan was initially approved at the very end of Trump’s first term (early 2021) but only formally executed under the Biden Administration’s energy programs ^[42]. Now, with President Trump back (assuming the scenario in 2025), his administration is treating Thacker Pass as a national security priority – so much so that it’s leveraging the loan to obtain equity. This unprecedented move underscores how important lithium has become in geopolitics. “The move underscores President Donald Trump’s increasing use of direct government ownership to steer strategic sectors and curb reliance on China,” Reuters noted, as China currently processes over 75% of the world’s lithium into battery-grade material ^[43]. In short, the U.S. wants to ensure Thacker Pass succeeds and its output stays in America.

For Lithium Americas, a mutually agreeable resolution with DOE is crucial and appears likely – both sides have a strong incentive to make Thacker Pass a success. The company stated it “continues to work with the DOE and GM” on proposals for a solution ^[44]. Investors should watch for a formal announcement of revised loan terms or a new investment agreement. Any confirmation of a government stake could further re-rate the stock (either positively, due to reduced risk, or negatively, if dilution is larger than expected). Conversely, failure to reach a deal – e.g. if negotiations drag on – could introduce uncertainty. At this stage, however, the market is clearly betting on a deal that solidifies the project’s funding and perhaps provides additional benefits like offtake price floors or profit guarantees to the company.

Thacker Pass Project Status and Developments

Thacker Pass is the crown jewel of Lithium Americas Corp – a massive lithium clay mining project in Humboldt County, northern Nevada. It is one of the most significant lithium deposits in the world, containing the largest known measured and indicated lithium resource and proven reserves globally ^[45]. When fully developed, Thacker Pass is expected to become the largest source of lithium in the Western Hemisphere ^[46], producing critical battery-grade lithium carbonate for decades. Lithium Americas (after a corporate split of its assets) now focuses exclusively on North America, with Thacker Pass as its flagship; the company spun off its Argentine lithium operations into a separate entity in late 2023 to sharpen this focus ^[47].

The project is structured as a joint venture with General Motors, reflecting the auto industry’s push upstream into raw materials. Lithium Americas holds 62% and is project operator, while GM’s 38% stake secures it a long-term lithium supply for GM’s Ultium battery plants ^[48]. Phase 1 of Thacker Pass is designed to produce 40,000 tonnes per year of battery-quality lithium carbonate once at full capacity ^[49]. For context, that alone would significantly bolster U.S. domestic lithium output (the U.S. mined <5,000 tonnes in 2022). There is also a Phase 2 expansion planned in the future, which could potentially double output to ~80,000 tonnes/year, making Thacker Pass a globally significant lithium source ^[50].

Construction is well underway. Groundbreaking began in early 2023 after Lithium Americas navigated a thicket of legal challenges. Environmental groups and local tribes had fought the mine’s federal permits, citing concerns from habitat destruction to sacred site disturbance. However, those challenges were largely resolved: in July 2023, the 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals rejected a last-ditch bid to block construction, upholding the Interior Department’s approval of the mine ^[51]. The court ruled that the Bureau of Land Management’s environmental review met legal requirements, allowing Lithium Americas (through its subsidiary Lithium Nevada Corp.) to proceed with building out the site ^[52]. This decisive legal victory removed a major overhang and by late 2023 the company ramped up construction activities. In a statement after the ruling, Lithium Americas said it was “pleased to see such a decisive ruling” and affirmed that construction activities continue at the project ^[53].

Since then, the company has been hitting key development milestones. It signed a Project Labor Agreement with North America’s Building Trades Unions to ensure a skilled workforce for the build-out ^[54]. Up to 1,800 union contractors will be employed during peak construction, with nearly 2,000 direct jobs created overall ^[55] – a boon for the local economy. Importantly, having a union-backed labor agreement also likely pleases the DOE and federal stakeholders, as it aligns with broader goals for high-quality job creation in clean energy projects.

As of September 2025, Thacker Pass’s timeline points to initial production by 2028 ^[56]. This means Lithium Americas still has about three years of heavy development spending ahead before any revenue comes in (hence the term “pre-revenue” company). By 2026-2027, we can expect the commissioning of processing plants and trial production runs if all goes according to plan. Notably, once operational, Thacker Pass could produce enough lithium each year for roughly 500,000+ electric vehicle batteries, underscoring why it’s considered a linchpin in building a U.S. EV supply chain ^[57]. The project’s strategic importance is further highlighted by the government’s involvement: it sits at the intersection of environmental policy, economic policy, and geopolitical strategy (reducing reliance on Chinese-refined lithium).

Despite its promise, Thacker Pass is not without challenges. The lithium at this site is hosted in clay, which is geologically different from the hard-rock spodumene or brine deposits that dominate global lithium production. Lithium Americas is employing new processing methods to extract lithium from clay at commercial scale – a process that will need to be proven out. Furthermore, the project’s large scale means any delays or cost overruns could be material. That said, Lithium Americas’ partnership with GM and backing from the DOE suggest it has both engineering resources and financing capacity to overcome hurdles. Ongoing community engagement will also be key; while major legal battles are settled, the company will need to fulfill environmental mitigation commitments and maintain dialogue with local stakeholders as construction progresses.

In summary, Thacker Pass is advancing steadily toward becoming a cornerstone of Made-in-USA lithium. The U.S. government’s potential stake is just the latest vote of confidence in its prospects. As the project moves forward, investors will be watching for construction updates, any changes to the production timeline, and news on Phase 2 expansion plans (which could further increase output down the line). The goal for Lithium Americas is to hit its 2028 start-up target and demonstrate that Thacker Pass can produce lithium at scale and at competitive cost – thereby transforming LAC from a development-stage stock into a producing mining company.

Analyst Commentary and Market Outlook

The whirlwind events of late September drew a wide range of analyst reactions, from enthusiasm about the project’s de-risking to caution about the stock’s rapid ascent. On the bullish side, many see the prospective government stake as a strong endorsement. “A government deal would logically enhance Thacker Pass’s viability and support potential expansions,” TD Cowen analysts wrote, noting it could even lead to “enhanced economics” for the project (e.g. better financing terms, tax benefits) ^[58]. Likewise, Morningstar’s sector analyst Seth Goldstein argued that federal involvement might come with offtake agreements or price guarantees that ensure Lithium Americas can sell its lithium at favorable prices. Such measures could “make Thacker Pass profitable even if lithium prices remain lower for longer,” Goldstein said ^[59]. In other words, the government might guarantee a floor price or take-or-pay contract for the lithium, insulating the project from downturns in commodity prices and virtually locking in its economics. This would be a big win for LAC, as it removes a major uncertainty (lithium price volatility) from the equation.

Even before any deal is finalized, Jefferies analysts highlighted that the mere prospect of government equity is a positive signal. They noted that Washington’s preference for equity stakes (over grants or higher-risk loans) is seen as supportive for financing and returns – effectively aligning the government’s interests with shareholders’ ^[60]. This strategy comes at a “lower political cost than tax increases” for funding, Jefferies quipped, but importantly it could bolster corporate profits and ROIC for companies like LAC by shoring up capital needs ^[61].

However, some analysts urge not to get carried away by the excitement. TD Cowen quickly downgraded Lithium Americas to “Hold” from “Buy” the morning after the 95% spike, calling the rally “a significantly full valuation” in light of the company’s early-stage status ^[62]. Cowen’s target price remains $5 – which is below LAC’s post-rally trading price, implying the stock overshot their fair value estimate ^[63]. The analysts acknowledged that a government stake or support would indeed de-risk the project, but they pointed out that Lithium Americas is still years away from generating revenue and faces a long road to ramp-up ^[64]. “The current share price already reflects this improved outlook,” the TD Cowen note stated bluntly, adding there is “little rationale for a significantly enhanced economic model” beyond what was already known, given that GM was already providing a price floor for the lithium (the exact floor price is undisclosed) ^{[65] [66]}. In essence, Cowen is cautioning that the stock now prices in a best-case scenario, so any hiccup or less-than-expected outcome from the DOE talks could trigger a pullback.

Reports also indicated JPMorgan’s analysts felt the surge was overblown relative to fundamentals ^[67]. They likely worry that if the rumor doesn’t materialize into a concrete deal, or if the stake ends up being small/non-dilutive (thus not injecting new capital), the stock could retrace. Additionally, giving 10% of the company to the government in exchange for converting part of the loan might not drastically change the economics for existing shareholders – it mainly secures the loan and project, which were presumably on track albeit with some delays in drawing funds. The bullish counterpoint is that government involvement could open doors to more funding (for Phase 2, for example) or simply remove all lingering doubt about project completion, merits that are hard to quantify but do bolster confidence.

Price forecasts for LAC now vary across the street. Jefferies, for instance, reportedly maintained a “Buy” rating despite the run-up, though it trimmed its price target to $7 (from $8) citing some uncertainty around the DOE loan re-evaluation ^[68]. A $7 target still suggests modest upside from recent prices, indicating Jefferies believes the stock isn’t overvalued if the project stays on track. Cowen’s $5 target, on the other hand, suggests overvaluation. This divergence highlights that sentiment is split – some see a transformational inflection that justifies a higher baseline for the stock, while others see a speculative frenzy that may cool.

Investors should also consider the dilution aspect: if the DOE indeed takes 10% equity, how is that executed? It could be via issuing new shares (diluting current holders by ~10%) or perhaps via warrants/options. Depending on the structure, it might increase the share count or effectively cap some upside for existing shareholders in exchange for reducing debt. The market’s initial reaction – a huge surge – implies investors think the trade-off is well worth it, since a strong government backstop could significantly reduce the risk of project failure or future cash crunches. But longer-term holders will watch the final terms closely. If, hypothetically, the DOE negotiated a stake at a price below market or set conditions that limit certain corporate actions, the market would reassess the implications.

One more factor to watch: broader market conditions for lithium and EV-related stocks. Lithium Americas’ rally occurred even as lithium commodity prices have been soft in 2025 (more on that below). Should lithium prices recover strongly, that could further buoy LAC’s outlook; conversely, if they stay depressed, it underscores the importance of those potential price guarantees or government support to ensure Thacker Pass remains economical. Many analysts will likely update their models once there is clarity on the DOE negotiations – until then, expect the stock to be news-driven and volatile. The consensus seems to be that Lithium Americas has immense long-term value if it becomes a top domestic lithium producer, but in the near term its valuation will swing on sentiment and incremental developments (financing deals, construction progress, etc.).

In summary, market sentiment toward LAC in late September 2025 is a mix of optimism and caution. The optimists see a “lithium champion” in the making, backed by Detroit and Washington, poised to ride the EV wave. The skeptics remind us that 2028 (first production) is still a long way off, and that the stock’s doubling in a day prices in a lot of good news. For a general investor, the key takeaway from the expert commentary is: the U.S. stake news greatly de-risks the project, but Lithium Americas still has to execute over several years. Near-term stock volatility is likely, and positions may hinge on one’s risk tolerance and conviction in the company’s execution of Thacker Pass.

Lithium Demand, EV Boom, and Macroeconomic Influences

The context for Lithium Americas’ story is the larger lithium and electric vehicle (EV) boom – and the occasional busts. Global EV sales continue to grow rapidly, spurring robust demand for lithium-ion batteries. Long-term forecasts for lithium demand are bullish: industry analysts project global lithium demand could grow 3.5× by 2030 compared to 2023 levels ^[69], driven by the mass adoption of EVs and energy storage. Governments worldwide (U.S., EU, China) have set aggressive targets for electric vehicle adoption and enacted policies (such as the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act) that effectively guarantee a growing market for battery materials like lithium throughout this decade.

Yet, paradoxically, 2025 has seen lithium prices near multi-year lows. After an extraordinary spike in 2021-2022 (when lithium carbonate prices hit record highs), new supply has come online and cooled the market. In the first half of 2025, lithium carbonate prices fell to their lowest since January 2021 ^[70]. By June 2025, prices bottomed out around $8,300 per tonne, down sharply from over $10,000 earlier in the year and down nearly 70% from late-2022 peaks ^[71]. Oversupply and inventory build-up have been headwinds: global mine output jumped ~22% in 2024 and is expected to rise similarly in 2025 as major producers (especially in China, Australia, Chile, and new players in Africa) expanded operations ^[72]. In fact, “Chinese producers have been particularly aggressive in expanding capacity,” notes Fastmarkets analyst Paul Lusty, contributing to a temporary lithium glut in the market ^{[73] [74]}.

However, this surplus is widely viewed as a short-term phenomenon. Demand from the EV sector remains strong and rising – it’s just that supply growth (for now) has caught up. “The lithium industry is navigating a period of complexity,” Lusty said, but he emphasized that lithium’s long-term drivers remain robust, anchored by “very powerful mega trends” like the global shift to clean energy and electrified transport ^[75]. Indeed, even as prices languished, EV battery production and deployments have continued breaking records in 2025. The International Energy Agency (IEA) notes that EV battery demand in 2024/25 is surging and forecasts over 3 TWh of batteries needed annually by 2030 (triple today’s levels) ^[76]. This implies a massive need for lithium, which is why no one is canceling lithium projects despite the price dip – quite the opposite, new mines are being fast-tracked globally.

For Lithium Americas, the macro backdrop means that by the time Thacker Pass starts production (~2028), the lithium market could very well be in a structural deficit again, potentially enjoying high prices if demand outstrips supply. But getting through the current period (2025-2027), where lithium prices are subdued, requires sufficient financing and confidence. This is where the U.S. government’s support becomes even more pivotal: if lithium prices remain soft in the near term, a DOE loan (or equity infusion) helps ensure LAC can fund construction without relying on high lithium prices or dilutive equity raises. Additionally, offtake agreements with price floors (like GM’s deal, and possibly further government guarantees) can secure minimum revenue once production begins ^[77].

Another macro factor is the geopolitical aspect of lithium supply. The U.S. is extremely keen to develop domestic lithium sources because currently it relies heavily on imports (and the refining is dominated by China). This has led to lithium being designated as a “critical mineral” and to programs like the DOE loan and Defense Production Act initiatives to support projects like Thacker Pass. The Trump administration’s push to actually own a piece of Lithium Americas is an extension of this trend – essentially, the U.S. government is saying it’s willing to literally invest in mines to ensure they succeed and supply the national interest ^[78]. Such direct involvement is unprecedented in recent decades (harking back to mid-20th century industrial policy), but it underscores how strategic EV battery materials have become. In the same vein, we see U.S. agencies investing in rare earth mines and battery manufacturing.

Global economic conditions also play a role. EV sales are influenced by factors like oil prices, interest rates, and consumer incentives. 2025 saw a mixed economic picture – inflation and higher interest rates created headwinds, but governments (Europe, U.S., China) increased EV subsidies and mandates, keeping the adoption curve on track. As a result, the EV market share of new car sales hit record highs in many regions in 2025. All of this means demand for lithium is more a question of “when” not “if” – even if there are temporary gluts, the consensus is that by late 2020s the world will need far more lithium than it produces today.

For lithium miners like LAC, price volatility is something to manage. Today’s lithium oversupply could turn into tomorrow’s shortage if EV uptake outpaces supply expansion or if certain large projects underperform. Interestingly, the potential government stake could imply that the U.S. is prepared to step in with price support measures if needed (e.g., buying lithium for strategic stockpiles or guaranteeing purchase prices). Indeed, part of the rumored negotiation is about ensuring GM follows through on buying Thacker Pass lithium, which is effectively a way to guarantee demand at a stable price ^[79].

In conclusion, the macro narrative for Lithium Americas is largely favorable: rising EV-driven demand, strong government support, and a likely return to tighter lithium markets by the time Thacker Pass is online. The main macro risk is if lithium stays very cheap for an extended period (due to technological changes or chronic oversupply), which could make new high-cost projects less profitable. But current expert views (and the Morningstar comment) suggest that with the right partnerships and guarantees, Thacker Pass can be profitable even in lower-price environments ^[80]. Moreover, as one of the only major U.S. lithium mines, it might command premium pricing or additional federal support if needed. The broader EV and renewable energy push is a tailwind that underpins LAC’s investment thesis – and the recent events show that macro policy (national security, green energy) is directly boosting the company’s prospects.

Financial Position and Recent Performance

Lithium Americas is still in the development stage, which is reflected in its financials. The company has no significant revenue yet (it will not have revenue until it produces and sells lithium, planned for 2028). Meanwhile, it incurs substantial costs for project development, engineering, and corporate overhead. In the most recent quarter (Q2 2025), Lithium Americas reported a net loss that nearly doubled year-on-year ^[81]. This widening loss was expected as construction at Thacker Pass ramped up and the company likely expensed certain costs and interest. The key point is that LAC is investing heavily now for a payoff years later – a typical profile for a mining development firm.

As of the last earnings report (Q2 2025), the company’s balance sheet included the large committed funding from GM and the DOE loan agreement, but the actual cash on hand and short-term liquidity were being closely watched by analysts. Lithium Americas had arranged about $1 billion (from GM and initial draw of loan) to fund early construction, but full project completion relies on accessing the DOE loan funds and potentially raising more equity or debt if needed. This is another reason the market cheered the idea of the DOE taking equity: if part of the loan converts to equity, it might strengthen the company’s capital structure (less debt) and possibly bring in cash (depending on how it’s structured).

One notable corporate development was the spinoff of Lithium Americas’ Argentina assets. In late 2023, the company split into two independent entities: Lithium Americas (NYSE: LAC) focusing on Thacker Pass (U.S. operations), and Lithium Argentina (TSX: LAAC) focusing on the Cauchari-Olaroz brine project and other Argentine assets ^{[82] [83]}. This separation (completed by Oct 2023) means that as of 2025, the LAC stock investors own is purely tied to the North American business. The rationale was to streamline each company – and indeed, it allowed Lithium Americas (NewCo) to devote all attention to Thacker Pass. From a financial standpoint, it also means LAC no longer benefits from any near-term revenue that the Argentina projects might generate (the Cauchari-Olaroz project in Argentina started production in 2023 under the separate entity). So LAC is a pure-play on Thacker Pass, with all its eggs in this one (very big) basket.

The good news is that Lithium Americas has deep-pocketed partners: GM’s $650 million investment and the DOE’s multi-billion loan show that the financing should be sufficient if all goes to plan. Any cost overruns or delays, however, could require the company to seek additional capital. Before the recent stake news, analysts considered whether LAC might issue new shares or take on more debt to ensure it can fund through 2027 – those questions might be alleviated if the government effectively doubles down on support. In fact, the market likely interpreted the stake rumor as a sign that additional funding or better terms could be forthcoming. It’s possible, for example, that the DOE could ease the loan’s terms (lower interest or longer grace period) in exchange for equity, which would improve LAC’s financial position.

From an earnings perspective, there isn’t much to analyze until production begins. Investors are instead looking at metrics like project NPV (net present value), expected EBITDA margins once operating, and the long-term lithium price assumptions. Before the price crash of 2023-2024, Thacker Pass was projected to be highly profitable (given lithium carbonate prices that were 3-4× higher than today’s). With lower current lithium prices, there were concerns about the project’s economics – but the involvement of GM (with an offtake likely at fixed or floor prices) and potential government support mitigate that. If we assume a moderate future lithium price (somewhere between the recent lows and the 2022 highs), Thacker Pass should still be economically robust due to its scale and the fact that it’s a domestic source (potentially commanding a premium under U.S. sourcing requirements for EV tax credits).

Looking at stock performance prior to the September spike: LAC had been relatively underperforming in early 2025, as lithium prices fell and investors favored companies with nearer-term cash flows. By mid-2025, LAC shares were hovering around the low-$3 range (down significantly from peaks a couple years back when lithium hype was at its height). The dramatic rally to $6+ essentially brought the stock back to levels not seen since early 2024. Even after doubling, Lithium Americas’ market capitalization is around $2.9 billion (at ~$6/share, given roughly 480 million shares outstanding) ^[84]. This is still modest relative to the project’s potential – if Thacker Pass produces 40k tonnes at, say, $20,000/tonne long-term price, that’s $800 million revenue per year, which could justify a much larger market cap once operational (especially with expansion). However, for the next couple of years, the stock’s valuation will be largely about narrative and milestones rather than earnings.

Wall Street will closely watch upcoming catalysts: the resolution of the DOE loan talks is the nearest one. After that, likely in November 2025, Lithium Americas will report Q3 2025 results, which may provide an update on construction progress and any changes in budget or timeline. Any hint of delay or cost increase could affect the stock, although now investors might assume the government’s stake could cushion such issues. Conversely, if the company surprises by accelerating some part of the project or securing additional partnerships (for example, another offtake for Phase 2 or a technology improvement), that could further boost confidence.

In terms of forecasts, aside from sell-side price targets mentioned earlier, it’s notable that LAC’s stock has doubled in 2025 with this rally ^[85], outperforming many mining peers and even EV makers. This momentum could continue if the broader market remains bullish on EV themes. Yet, one should recall that commodity project stocks can be very volatile; they can swing wildly on sentiment. The involvement of the U.S. government arguably makes LAC a somewhat unique case – almost a strategic asset play – which might grant it a higher baseline valuation than a typical junior miner. Still, prudent investors will consider the risks: execution risk, commodity price risk, and political risk (ironic as it sounds, political risk in this case would be if a future administration changed course on support, though a signed deal would make that less likely).

To summarize LAC’s financial and stock position: the company is well-funded for now but not yet generating revenue; its stock is riding high on optimism but faces a long journey to justify that optimism with cash flows. The recent events have greatly improved the outlook (de-risking funding and market access), and if one believes lithium demand will be as large as projected, then Lithium Americas’ current ~$3 billion valuation could in hindsight prove cheap. On the flip side, if lithium stays oversupplied or Thacker Pass hits snags, the stock could retrace. The balance of evidence as of September 25, 2025, points to a positive trajectory, with strong backing from both industry (GM) and government – a combination that few small-cap companies have. It will be fascinating to watch how this public-private partnership in the making unfolds, and whether Lithium Americas can deliver on being a cornerstone of America’s EV future.

Conclusion

Lithium Americas Corp. finds itself at a pivotal moment. In the span of a week, LAC went from a niche lithium development stock trading in the low-$3 range to a market starlet nearing $6 on hopes of an unprecedented partnership with Uncle Sam. The news of a potential U.S. government stake in Lithium Americas has galvanized investors, signaling the project’s strategic importance and providing a vote of confidence (and possibly more capital) to bring Thacker Pass online. This development is not just another stock catalyst – it reflects a broader shift in how critical mineral projects may be supported and financed in the U.S. going forward.

As of September 25, 2025, the market’s take is clear: Lithium Americas is at the forefront of the new “white gold rush” (lithium boom), and with heavyweights like GM and possibly the U.S. government in its corner, its chances of success have greatly improved. The stock’s sharp rally and high trading volumes underscore both the enthusiasm and the volatility inherent in such a story.

For investors and observers, a few key themes emerge from this episode:

• De-risking through Partnership: If finalized, a government equity stake (and the existing GM partnership) substantially de-risks Thacker Pass by ensuring funding and a buyer for its product. This makes LAC’s long-term prospects more tangible than those of many junior mining companies.
• Valuation vs. Vision: The company’s valuation has swiftly risen to factor in a rosier future. Further upside will likely require continued execution and perhaps lithium price improvement, while setbacks could introduce downside – a classic high-reward/high-risk scenario.
• Macro Alignment: Lithium Americas is benefiting from alignment with macro trends – EV adoption, supply chain security, and bipartisan policy support for critical minerals. This tailwind is powerful and seems likely to persist for years, though commodity cycles may cause bumps along the way.
• Milestones to Watch: Near-term, watch for formal word on the DOE loan renegotiation (will the U.S. indeed take a stake, and on what terms?). Also monitor quarterly updates for any shifts in project timeline or budget. Over a multi-year horizon, the biggest milestone will be the commencement of production in 2028 and the ramp-up thereafter.

In conclusion, Lithium Americas Corp. has transformed from a speculative development play into a strategically significant venture with the backing of both corporate and national interests. The stock’s spectacular jump in late September 2025 highlights the market’s recognition of this transformation. While risks remain and execution is paramount, the company’s future looks brighter than ever. Investors with an eye on the EV supply chain will be hearing a lot more about Lithium Americas and Thacker Pass as this ambitious project progresses. For now, the excitement is justified, but all eyes will be on management and partners to turn this promise into reality – and to ensure that the “white gold” under Nevada’s sagebrush is extracted efficiently, profitably, and sustainably for years to come.

Sources:

1. Reuters – “Lithium Americas soars on report Trump administration seeking equity stake” (Sept 24, 2025) ^{[86] [87]}.
2. Reuters – “Lithium Americas soars 90% as Washington considers stake” (Sept 24, 2025, updated) ^{[88] [89] [90] [91]}.
3. Lithium Americas Corp. – News Release: “Lithium Americas Comments on Share Price Movement” (Sept 24, 2025) ^{[92] [93]}.
4. Asianet Newsable/Stocktwits – “TD Cowen Downgrades Lithium Americas Stock After 96% Rally” (Sept 25, 2025) ^{[94] [95] [96]}.
5. Investing.com – “Lithium Americas stock downgraded to Hold at TD Cowen after 90% surge” (Sept 25, 2025) ^{[97] [98] [99]}.
6. Nevada Current – “9th Circuit says Thacker Pass lithium mine can proceed” (July 20, 2023) ^{[100] [101]}.
7. Investing News Network – “Lithium Market Update: Q2 2025 in Review” (July 21, 2025) ^{[102] [103] [104]}.
8. Yahoo Finance (Historical Data) – Lithium Americas stock price and volume, Sept 22–24, 2025 ^[105].
9. Reuters – “Lithium Americas Comments on Share Price Movement” (company statement summary) ^[106].
10. Reuters – “Trump administration’s stake in Lithium Americas underscores push to cut China reliance” (Contextual info) ^[107].

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