Lithium Americas Stock Skyrockets on U.S. ‘White Gold’ Deal

LAC shares surged: In the past two weeks Lithium Americas Corp. (TSX: LAC, NYSE: LAC) stock jumped from around C$3 to over $10 USD, fueled by a landmark U.S. government deal ^[1] ^[2]. On Oct 14, 2025, LAC closed at $10.05 USD (up 19.2% on the day) ^[3], valuing the company at about $2.4 billion ^[4].
DOE loan & equity stakes: The rally began in late September after Reuters reported the Trump administration was negotiating a $2.26 billion DOE loan to fund Thacker Pass, Nevada (North America’s largest lithium mine), with up to a 10% U.S. equity stake in LAC as part of the deal ^[5]. On Oct 1, Lithium Americas confirmed the loan terms: the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) will provide an initial $435 million tranche immediately, and (in exchange) will receive warrants for 5% of LAC’s common shares and 5% of the Thacker Pass joint venture at a nominal exercise price ^[6] ^[7]. This unprecedented federal backing led U.S.-listed LAC stock to jump ~23% on Oct 1 ^[8] and pushed the share price past $10 by mid-October ^[9].
Strategic partnerships: LAC is already partnered with General Motors (GM), which invested $650M in 2023 for ~38% of LAC and secured offtake rights to all Phase 1 production (40,000 tpa) for 20 years ^[10]. The DOE-GM agreement was amended so LAC can sell any lithium not needed by GM to other buyers ^[11]. GM’s supply chain chief Shilpan Amin praised Thacker Pass as a project that “will reduce U.S. dependence on imported lithium and can support domestic manufacturing across many industries” ^[12].
EV and lithium demand: The stock’s rise comes amid booming electric vehicle (EV) demand. EV sales exceeded 17 million worldwide in 2024, over 20% of new auto sales ^[13], and are projected to keep growing rapidly. Industry forecasts expect annual lithium demand to double or triple by 2030, reaching well over 2 million tonnes ^[14] ^[15]. However, global lithium prices are currently far below 2022 peaks – driven by a near-term supply glut – even as long-term deficits loom ^[16] ^[17]. This market context underpins the bullish case for LAC but also tempers optimism.
Analyst outlook: Despite the excitement, Wall Street is cautious. After the recent rally, most analysts rate LAC as a “Hold,” with a consensus 12-month price target around $5–6 ^[18], roughly half today’s price. Dozens of firms (TD Cowen, Scotiabank, TD Securities, etc.) have trimmed forecasts or downgraded LAC, arguing the stock now reflects years of future upside ^[19] ^[20]. As TS2.Tech notes, even at about $5 per share these analysts still see a risk of overvaluation given that Thacker Pass won’t generate revenue until ~2027–28 ^[21] ^[22]. In short, the market’s “frothy” rally has put LAC well above conventional valuations unless growth and execution run perfectly ^[23] ^[24].

LAC Stock Soars on U.S. Government Deal

Lithium Americas is racing higher thanks to heavy U.S. government support. On Oct 1, Reuters reported that the DOE finalized the low-interest ATVM loan and stake deal ^[25]. That day, LAC stock jumped 23% to about $7.03 ^[26]. A week earlier, a separate Reuters story had driven a nearly 90% spike on Sept 24, when investors learned Washington was considering a 10% equity stake in the company (as part of DOE loan negotiations) ^[27]. In total, the US government’s involvement has sent LAC’s market cap from under $700 million in early September to over $2 billion today ^[28] ^[29].

This surge reflects the White House’s priority on domestic critical minerals. Reuters noted that President Trump’s administration is using direct equity ownership to boost strategic sectors and reduce reliance on China ^[30]. China currently refines over 75% of the world’s battery-grade lithium ^[31] ^[32], so locking in a U.S. supply (via Thacker Pass) is seen as a national security move. Indeed, investors have treated the government’s equity stake as a major endorsement: Wedbush Securities analysts labeled the DOE deal a “game-changer” that de-risks LAC’s financing ^[33]. The result was another quick pop in October: LAC jumped +31% in a single session on news of the DOE loan drawdown ^[34]. Overall, LAC is up 250% year-to-date (from the ~$3 level in spring) even though the mine is still under construction ^[35] ^[36].

Analysts Voice Caution After Rally

The fast rally has drawn mixed expert reactions. Many equity analysts have dialed back their outlooks, warning that LAC’s current ~$10 price exceeds near-term fundamentals. As of this week, about 13 of 15 analysts covering LAC rate it Neutral/Hold ^[37]. TD Cowen cut its rating to Hold (target $5) the day of the spike ^[38], saying the new valuation already “factors in years of future growth” ^[39]. Scotiabank likewise raised its 12-month target only to ~$5 but labeled LAC a “Sector Underperform,” warning the stock is hard to justify before the mine produces ^[40]. Other firms (Canaccord, Cormark, etc.) have similarly trimmed targets or maintained Hold status after the rally ^[41] ^[42]. Even among bulls, price targets range widely; TS2.Tech notes that aside from a few high forecasts (~$8–10), most analysts see a significant downside from current levels ^[43] ^[44].

On the upside, a few strategists have grown more positive. BMO Capital lifted its target from the low-$3s up to $5 after the DOE news ^[45] (still implying downside). Wedbush reportedly sketched a high-single-digit target, hailing the government backing ^[46]. And J.P. Morgan reiterated a Hold, saying it wants to see actual project progress. But no major bank has given an outright Buy yet, since LAC remains a development-stage miner with no revenue. As Investing.com analysts summarized, the stock now trades “well above its fair value by conventional metrics,” given that Thacker Pass isn’t producing yet ^[47].

Notably, insiders have been selling at these highs. On Oct 1, LAC’s VP of Resource Development sold nearly 90% of his holdings at about $9.48 per share ^[48]. Whether opportunistic or just tax planning, such large insider sales – combined with the analyst downgrades – helped trigger a short pullback (roughly –12% off the peak in early October) ^[49]. In the coming days, any fresh news (good or bad) could send LAC swinging, given the tiny free float and high expectations.

Global Lithium Market and EV Demand

Underlying the long-term story is a booming lithium market driven by batteries. EV sales continue to climb: in 2024 more than 17 million electric cars were sold globally ^[50], over 20% of all new cars. That electrification wave means lithium use is expected to grow rapidly – Fastmarkets data projects annual demand growth of ~12% for the next decade (after a 24% surge in 2024) ^[51]. By 2030, industry forecasts see demand exceeding 2 million tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent (roughly double 2022 levels) ^[52]. At that point, Thacker Pass’s planned 40,000 tpa output (Phase 1) would make LAC a top North American lithium supplier, enough to support roughly 800,000 EVs per year ^[53].

However, lithium prices have been volatile. After spiking above $70,000/tonne in 2022 amid a supply crunch, prices plunged ~90% by 2024 due to new mines (mainly in China/Australia) flooding the market ^[54] ^[55]. Today prices have stabilized at multi-year lows (around $10,000/tonne) ^[56]. This “lithium paradox” – falling prices despite rising EV demand – is well known in the industry ^[57]. Pilbara Minerals CEO Dale Henderson summed it up: “we’ve got market pain, but on the other side is the strategic gain… that is the lithium paradox” ^[58].

For LAC, that means the long-term demand is huge, but near-term prices are muted. Thacker Pass is timed to begin production in 2027–28, just as supply may again tighten. If lithium prices rebound later this decade, LAC stands to benefit greatly. The GM offtake deal and the U.S. govt’s equity stake both provide downside protection: GM will buy a large share of output at agreed terms, and insiders speculate the DOE stake could come with price guarantees or purchase commitments ^[59]. Morningstar’s Seth Goldstein notes that an equity stake “could include mechanisms to ensure Thacker Pass remains profitable even if lithium prices remain lower for longer,” for instance via minimum price contracts ^[60].

Still, until Thacker Pass is producing, LAC’s valuation rests on future expectations. As TS2.Tech warns, the stock is a “story stock tied to future lithium market conditions” ^[61]. Any slowdown in EV adoption or surge of new lithium projects could keep prices subdued, testing Thacker Pass’s economics. Investors will be watching upcoming company milestones (engineering updates, permits, equipment orders, etc.) for signs that the dream is on track. In the meantime, each news headline – from EV policy to Chinese supply developments – is likely to keep LAC trading in a wide range, as the recent weeks’ roller-coaster has shown.

Geopolitical and Regulatory Factors

Lithium Americas sits at the intersection of international geopolitics and energy policy. The U.S. push to secure critical minerals – embracing “white gold” lithium – is bipartisan for now, but subject to political shifts. The recent DOE loan deal was initiated under a Republican administration, and some analysts note it’s subject to usual closing conditions. Speculation even arose that a new administration might re-examine the $2.3 billion loan commitment ^[62]. So far, both major parties have touted domestic EV supply chains, but investors will want confirmation that Washington’s backing remains firm.

Because Lithium Americas is Canadian-incorporated, Ottawa also has a say. The Canadian government said it will conduct a foreign investment review under the Investment Canada Act for this deal ^[63]. A ministry spokesperson explained that “reviews of foreign investments in critical minerals will be conducted in the best interests of Canadians” ^[64]. If Canada were to block or delay the transaction, it could stall the project timeline.

Outside North America, lithium developments continue too. (LAC itself spun off its Argentine brine projects into a new company, Lithium Argentina, in late 2023.) While global supply is growing, China remains the dominant refiner. News that the U.S. is entering the lithium business has helped lift other North American miners – for example, peers like Albemarle (the largest U.S. lithium producer) saw positive sentiment. But competition from projects worldwide means LAC must deliver on time to capture the demand surge.

Outlook: Executing on the Hype

Lithium Americas has unquestionably become one of 2025’s top market stories. For bulls, the combination of a giant U.S. lithium deposit, GM’s backing, a government loan and stake, and surging EV demand creates a potent narrative. As MarketBeat put it, LAC has “experienced a surge” after the DOE deal, shifting from a speculative miner to a de-risked developer with funding in place ^[65]. In theory, the stock’s new higher valuation could be justified if Thacker Pass comes online on time and in budget, and if electric-vehicle growth continues as projected ^[66].

Skeptics counter that the stock now prices in perfection. The consensus analyst view remains neutral – essentially “wait and see.” With insiders having locked in gains and the government holding warrants at $0.01 strike, LAC’s fate will soon hinge on execution. The company must turn federal loans and GM cash into real progress on the ground. Any delays or cost overruns could trigger a re-rating.

For the average investor, this is a stock of extremes: booming prospects but real risk. As one TS2.tech analyst quipped, “If you’re still guessing at the end of your analysis, it’s probably not a trade worth taking” ^[67]. In plain terms: do your homework. Lithium Americas has entered a new phase with all the big players in its corner – now it must deliver on the promise. With lithium’s long-term demand likely strong, LAC’s story is far from over. But its share price may continue to swing wildly as the market digests just how realistic that story will be in the years ahead.

Sources: Reuters ^[68] ^[69] ^[70]; Investing.com/MarketBeat ^[71] ^[72]; TS2.Tech ^[73] ^[74] ^[75]; Financial filings ^[76] ^[77]; and industry reports ^[78] ^[79] (see citations).