Market Madness: RZLV (Direxion 2X S&P ETF) Soars With Record Highs!

Price & Movement: As of Oct 3, 2025 midday, the Direxion 2× S&P 500 Bull ETF (often tracked via ticker SPUU) was trading around $182 – roughly flat to +0.3% from the prior close ^[1] ^[2]. This tracks the S&P 500’s record-level behavior; the index closed Oct 2 at ~6,715 (a new all-time high) ^[3] and briefly touched ~6,731 on Oct 2 ^[4]. U.S. futures were modestly higher on Oct 3 (+0.1–0.2%) ^[5], suggesting SPUU opened near yesterday’s close. (Note: Yahoo’s “RZLV” symbol currently refers to Rezolve AI PLC stock, which has nothing to do with the S&P ETF – see below for details.)
News Headlines (Oct 1–3, 2025): U.S. and global markets hit fresh highs. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at records on Oct 2 ^[6], with tech giants (Apple, Nvidia, etc.) leading gains. Investors shrugged off the U.S. government shutdown (begun Oct 1) – indeed, Vanguard’s S&P ETF (VOO) closed at a record on Oct 2 and was +0.1% pre-market on Oct 3 ^[7]. Weaker-than-expected jobs reports (ADP, etc.) underpinned expectations of Fed rate cuts; markets now price in two 0.25% Fed cuts by year-end ^[8] ^[9]. This combination of bullish earnings and easing hopes has stocks hitting highs despite political uncertainty (Treasury Sec. Bessent warned shutdown could hurt GDP, but no bad data has come out yet) ^[10] ^[11].
Analyst Sentiment: Wall Street experts urge caution amid stretched valuations. DataTrek’s Nicholas Colas and Jessica Rabe noted that every major rally of this kind since 2023 was followed by 5–18% pullbacks; they urged investors to be “selective” even as indexes hit new highs ^[12]. Plante Moran’s Jim Baird pointed to soft employment data, saying the market is “looking at this data” for guidance ^[13]. Even Goldman CEO David Solomon warned that after a big tech-driven run, a corrective selloff in the next 12–24 months wouldn’t be surprising ^[14] ^[15]. On the bullish side, analysts upgraded leveraged S&P funds: Morningstar notes SPUU’s YTD NAV return (~22.5%) is roughly double the S&P’s (~12–13%) ^[16] ^[17], reflecting its 2× exposure. (For comparison, the 3× S&P ETF SPXL is up ~26.95% YTD ^[18].)
Rezolve Note: Separately, Yahoo’s RZLV ticker is Rezolve AI PLC (a small-cap tech company). Rezolve’s H1’25 results (Oct 1 release) showed $6.3M revenue (+426% YoY) and gross margins ~96% ^[19]. The company hiked its 2025 ARR target to $150M and 2026 to $500M ^[20]. Six firms (Maxim, Roth, Cantor, etc.) promptly raised price targets on RZLV ^[21]. Rezolve CEO Daniel Wagner touted “brainpowa” AI models as setting industry benchmarks ^[22] ^[23]. (This separate Rezolve surge explains RZLV’s big moves on Yahoo, but it is unrelated to the Direxion ETF.)

Market Context: Stocks Rally to New Highs

U.S. equity markets are buoyant. On Oct 2, the S&P 500 closed around 6,715 (up ~0.06%) ^[24], Nasdaq near 22,844 (+0.39%) ^[25], and Dow ~46,519 (+0.17%). That session saw multiple intraday records (S&P briefly ~6,731 ^[26]). Investors are pricing in Fed policy easing after soft ADP/employment data ^[27] ^[28], and U.S. Treasury yields dipped (2-year ~3.53%, 10-year ~4.10% ^[29]). Commodities: Gold hit a new high near $3,895/oz (a “strange warning signal” according to Reuters ^[30]), while oil eased to ~$60-64/barrel. Crucially, the government shutdown appears not to be spooking markets: with no fresh bad data coming out, Wall St. is “blissfully ignorant” of the shutdown’s impact ^[31].

RZLV (SPUU) Price and Volume

Direxion reports SPUU’s Oct 2 NAV was $181.33 (+0.11%) and market close $181.43 (+0.18%) ^[32]. Investing.com data confirms SPUU around $182.10 (+0.37%) by Oct 2 ^[33]. On Oct 3’s open, SPUU traded right around these levels as S&P futures were slightly higher ^[34]. Average daily volume for SPUU is relatively low – about 10,600 shares (per Direxion data) ^[35] – much smaller than major indexes or popular ETFs. This modest volume reflects that leveraged funds are typically held by traders rather than big institutions.

Trading and Flows

Institutional ownership of SPUU is small. Fintel reports 26 institutional holders with ~293,800 total shares (e.g. trading shops/market-makers like Exchange Traded Concepts, Susquehanna, Tower Research, Virtu, etc.) ^[36]. This suggests most SPUU trading is done by speculators or niche funds. As an ETF, SPUU has no corporate insiders; there are no insider trades to report (the fund is managed by Rafferty Asset Management with known expense caps ^[37]). Recent volume and filings show no unusual block trades or flows – investor interest seems steady but not dramatic.

Analyst Commentary & Opinions

Market strategists stress caution. DataTrek’s Colas & Rabe argued that similar rallies since 2023 ended in significant pullbacks (5–18%) soon after ^[38] – not a “sell” signal, but a warning to be selective. Plante Moran’s Jim Baird noted that current weak labor data makes Fed policy uncertain: “the market is looking at this data to gauge [the Fed’s] path forward” ^[39]. Reuters also quoted Carmignac’s Kevin Thozet quipping that lawmakers are “like a blind man walking with a blind dog” on shutdown funding ^[40], a wry take on policy confusion (though investors remain unfazed for now). Notably, Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon warned at an October 3 event that after a tech-driven rally, a stock “selloff in the next 12 to 24 months” wouldn’t be surprising ^[41] ^[42].

On the other side, analysts covering the Rezolve AI (RZLV) stock are extremely bullish after its strong earnings. Maxim Group raised its Rezolve target to $15, Roth to $12.50, H.C. Wainwright to $10 ^[43], citing its Microsoft/Google partnerships and booming “brainpowa” AI sales. CEO Daniel Wagner was featured in press releases saying Rezolve’s enterprise AI tech is “Agentic Commerce ready” and claiming “the forefront of the AI revolution” ^[44] ^[45]. (These quotes explain why “RZLV” stock sentiment is frothy – but again, that’s a separate small-caps story, not the S&P ETF.)

Forecasts & Outlook

Looking ahead, much hinges on macro policy. With Fed officials signaling eventual rate cuts, many forecasters expect continued gains. For example, one technical model (StockInvest.us) projects SPUU could rally ~24.9% over the next 3 months (implying a target near $200) based on current upward momentum ^[46]. That analysis notes SPUU is in a “narrow and strong rising trend” and only slightly pulled back from a July peak. However, it also identifies near-term resistance around $164.2 and support near $156.3 ^[47]. In practice, SPUU is already near $182 – above that noted resistance – so upside may be limited without further index gains.

Macro forecasts: traders fully price in two Fed cuts by year-end ^[48], which should boost stocks (and SPUU) if delivered. On the other hand, if economic data firm up, a sudden rally could reverse. Solomon’s caution suggests eventual downside risk after such a long rally ^[49]. Historically, leveraged ETFs like SPUU often underperform their simple multiple over long periods (due to daily reset/volatility drag ^[50]). In the short term, SPUU’s NAV has indeed roughly doubled the S&P’s 2025 move (1Y NAV +25.98% vs. S&P ~13%), but that amplification can work both ways.

Technical Indicators & Trends

Technically, SPUU has been in a clear uptrend. Its NAV returned +6.9% in the last month and +15.1% in the last 3 months ^[51]. A recent chart analysis flagged a July 25 pivot sell signal and a MACD “sell” ^[52], but notes the long-term (200-day) moving average is still well below price (a classic “buy” setup) ^[53]. That report gives SPUU a mixed technical picture – momentum is strong, but short-term indicators are slightly overbought. Crucial support levels from accumulated volume sit around $156–$164 ^[54] (which coincides with the model’s pivot support) and farther down ~$141 ^[55]. Given how tight the recent trading range has been, a break above the prior high (~$182) or a test of the lower support could guide near-term direction.

Leveraged ETF Context & Peers

Compared to peers, SPUU’s performance is in line with its objective. The 2× S&P fund SPUU has a YTD NAV gain of 22.48% (to Sept 30) ^[56]. By comparison, the 3× ETF SPXL gained 26.95% YTD ^[57] (roughly 3/2 of SPUU’s return, as expected). Non-leveraged S&P (SPY) is up only mid-teens this year. This illustrates how leveraged ETFs magnify moves: in 2025 SPUU is roughly double the S&P’s rise. One caveat: leveraged funds are best for short-term trading. Direxion’s own docs note “the fund should not be expected to provide two times the return of the benchmark’s cumulative return for periods greater than a day” ^[58]. This means volatility and path dependence can erode long-run gains. Nevertheless, in the current rally SPUU has essentially delivered ~2× S&P returns year-to-date (YTD SPUU +22.5% vs. S&P ~12.5%). Investors should keep in mind that if the S&P falters, SPUU will fall roughly twice as much, and that the fund’s expense ratio (0.60% net) is higher than broad-market ETFs.

Sources: Direxion fund data ^[59] ^[60]; Reuters market reports ^[61] ^[62]; U.S. stock news ^[63] ^[64]; financial press and analysis ^[65] ^[66] ^[67]. The above reflects information available as of Oct 3, 2025 during U.S. market hours.