Marvell Technology (MRVL) Stock on November 29, 2025: AI Pivot, Buybacks and a High‑Stakes Q3 Earnings Test

Marvell Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ: MRVL) heads into the final days of November trading near $89 per share, after a sharp rebound driven by its AI data‑center strategy, a multi‑billion‑dollar buyback plan and growing speculation about its upcoming fiscal Q3 2026 earnings report on December 2, 2025. ^[1]

Across Wall Street today, the conversation around Marvell stock is less “What does the company do?” and more “How much of the AI upside is already priced in?” Recent headlines from November 28–29 highlight stronger technical momentum, bullish earnings previews, and a tug‑of‑war on valuation that investors should understand before the next catalyst hits. ^[2]

Where Marvell stock stands right now

Marvell shares closed Friday, November 28, 2025 at $89.40, up roughly 2% on the day, with after‑hours trading only slightly lower. ^[3] That move extends a powerful multi‑day rally: the stock has climbed high‑single to low‑double‑digit percentages over the past week, helped by upbeat AI coverage and continued digestion of its earlier automotive divestiture. ^[4]

From a technical perspective, Investor’s Business Daily reported today that Marvell’s Relative Strength (RS) Rating has been upgraded from 67 to 75, reflecting improving performance versus the broader market after a difficult stretch earlier in 2025. ^[5] In IBD’s framework, many past big winners carried RS ratings of 80 or higher before their biggest runs; sitting in the mid‑70s suggests Marvell is strengthening but not yet in “elite momentum” territory.

Fundamentals still look like a work‑in‑progress AI growth story rather than a mature cash cow. According to MarketBeat’s latest trading update (November 28), Marvell shows: ^[6]

Market cap around $77 billion
Debt‑to‑equity ~0.30, with quick ratio 1.44 and current ratio 1.88 (a solid liquidity profile)
A negative GAAP P/E (around –686), due to slim or slightly negative net margins, even as adjusted earnings rise
A PEG ratio near 1.1 and beta close to 2, highlighting both growth expectations and above‑market volatility

In short: the balance sheet is healthy, growth is strong, but profitability and valuation are still catching up with the AI narrative.

Fresh headlines on November 28–29: what changed?

Although there has been no brand‑new corporate press release in the last 24 hours, several pieces of analysis and technical commentary published on November 28–29 collectively shape today’s view of MRVL.

1. Technical strength: RS rating upgraded

The IBD note titled “Marvell Technology Getting Closer to Key Technical Measure” emphasises that Marvell’s RS rating moved up to 75 as the stock rallied, supported by prior quarterly growth of 123% in earnings per share and 58% in revenue year over year. ^[7] It also notes that Marvell ranks in the upper tier of the fabless semiconductor group, one of the more dynamic pockets of the chip universe.

For technically‑oriented investors and algorithms that screen on RS, this kind of upgrade can act as a secondary tailwind.

2. MarketBeat: “Trading Up 1.7% – Still a Buy?”

A MarketBeat “instant alert” published November 28 flagged that Marvell traded up about 1.7% to $89.24 on below‑average volume and reiterated that the stock carries a “Moderate Buy” consensus rating with an average price target of about $94.41. ^[8]

Key points from that note:

Q2 FY26 results (reported August 28) delivered revenue of $2.01 billion, up 57.6% year over year, and non‑GAAP EPS of $0.67, matching consensus estimates.
Return on equity was positive (~11%), but net margin remained slightly negative (~–1.4%), contributing to the odd negative P/E. ^[9]
The board authorised a $5 billion share repurchase program, equivalent to roughly 7.8% of shares outstanding, and maintains a modest quarterly dividend of $0.06 per share (about a 0.3% yield). ^[10]
Insider confidence looks solid: recent disclosures show the CEO and COO together buying tens of thousands of shares around the high‑$70s, while total insider purchases in the latest quarter reached roughly 27,200 shares (~$2.1 million). ^[11]

That combination — robust growth, a sizable buyback and insider buying — is a big part of why the stock has bounced despite lingering valuation concerns.

3. Simply Wall St: “Undervalued by 2.6%… or 30% Overvalued?”

A detailed valuation piece from Simply Wall St this week offers a nuanced view that’s getting attention in today’s discussions. At Friday’s close of $87.72, the platform’s most popular narrative pegs Marvell’s fair value around $90.07, implying the stock is only about 2–3% “undervalued” on that crowd‑sourced model. ^[12]

However, the same article notes that their DCF (discounted cash‑flow) model returns a much lower fair value estimate near $61 per share, suggesting substantial downside if growth or margins fall short of aggressive AI‑driven assumptions. ^[13]

This split neatly captures today’s debate: narrative‑driven AI optimism versus more conservative cash‑flow realities.

4. “Why Is Marvell Technology Up Today?” — sentiment snapshot

MarketBeat’s MRVL news page features an AI‑generated explainer posted within the last several hours summarising why the stock has climbed recently. It points to: ^[14]

Positive earnings previews from Zacks and Seeking Alpha that frame a Q3 beat as likely.
Analyst actions, including an HSBC upgrade to Hold and at least one price target raise to $100.
Recent headlines emphasising Marvell’s refocus on AI/data‑center partnerships and advanced packaging after shedding its automotive exposure.

The same summary also flags a counter‑view: a fresh article highlighting that MRVL is still down roughly 20–30% year‑to‑date and warning investors not to blindly “buy the dip” given the rich valuation and volatile earnings reactions. ^[15]

Strategic pivot: selling automotive to double down on AI

A major structural change behind today’s commentary actually happened earlier this year but is still central to the current move.

In August 2025, Marvell completed the sale of its Automotive Ethernet business to Infineon Technologies for $2.5 billion in cash, a deal that had been announced in April. ^[16] The unit was expected to generate roughly $225–250 million of annual revenue with attractive margins, but management explicitly framed the transaction as part of a shift toward data‑center and AI infrastructure as the core of Marvell’s future. ^[17]

Analysts and narrative platforms now repeatedly tie the recent share price strength to this strategic refocus:

Simply Wall St’s latest note on the stock’s 13.3% recent gain attributes the move to this automotive exit plus “new data‑center investments,” arguing that the company is simplifying around higher‑growth, higher‑scale opportunities. ^[18]
Several brokers have highlighted that the $2.5 billion cash inflow, together with the new $5 billion buyback authorization and a $1 billion accelerated share repurchase (ASR), gives Marvell significant flexibility to both invest in AI and return capital to shareholders. ^[19]

In other words, Marvell is explicitly trading a smaller, profitable but non‑core automotive niche for a bigger bet on being one of the key plumbing providers of AI data centers.

Upcoming Q3 FY26 earnings: what Wall Street expects

The next major catalyst for MRVL stock is just days away. Marvell has confirmed it will release fiscal Q3 2026 results on Tuesday, December 2, 2025, after the market close, followed by a conference call at 1:45 p.m. Pacific time. ^[20]

Consensus numbers

Across multiple sources, expectations cluster tightly:

Non‑GAAP EPS: around $0.74–0.75, implying ~70–75% year‑over‑year growth. ^[21]
Revenue: roughly $2.06–2.07 billion, about 36% higher than the year‑ago quarter and in line with company guidance of $2.06 billion ±5%. ^[22]

Zacks’ pre‑earnings report (syndicated via Finviz and other platforms) goes further, estimating a detailed segment breakdown: ^[23]

Data‑center revenue near $1.5 billion, up about 35% YoY, driven by custom AI accelerators and high‑speed optics.
Carrier infrastructure revenue almost doubling to around $170 million as telecom spending rebounds.
Enterprise networking jumping toward $250–260 million as customers work through inventory and resume spending.

Zacks assigns Marvell a Rank #2 (Buy) and notes a positive Earnings ESP, arguing the set‑up favors an earnings beat — while still warning that weakness in consumer and residual auto‑related markets could partially offset AI strength. ^[24]

TipRanks paints a similar picture: it cites Street forecasts of $0.74 EPS and $2.07 billion in revenue, and reminds investors that Marvell has missed consensus in two of the last nine quarters, underlining that execution risk is not zero. ^[25]

Volatility around earnings

A fresh Trefis note reviewing past reactions points out that Marvell shares have historically swung between roughly –20% and +23% in the sessions following recent earnings reports, including about an 18.6% drop after Q2 FY26 results in August when investors were disappointed with guidance and the pace of AI ramp‑up. TechStock²+1

With expectations now higher and the stock back near recent highs, the risk‑reward around Tuesday’s print looks especially asymmetric: a beat and bullish guidance could justify the premium, while any hint of slowdown in AI spending or margin pressure could spark another sharp drawdown.

How the AI story looks today

Several of this week’s research pieces frame Marvell as a critical, if lesser‑known, player in AI infrastructure rather than a direct competitor to GPU giants.

A Seeking Alpha earnings‑preview article, widely cited in today’s round‑ups, reiterates a Buy rating and argues that Marvell’s AI data‑center and electro‑optics businesses are still undervalued relative to their long‑term potential, even after recent gains. ^[26]
TipRanks highlights UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri, who recently raised his price target from $105 to $110 and maintained a Buy rating, citing stronger‑than‑expected momentum in Marvell’s optical interconnect (“AI optics”) business and long‑term upside from custom chips for Microsoft and other hyperscalers. ^[27]
StockAnalysis aggregates Wall Street forecasts and shows Marvell’s revenue expected to jump from about $5.8 billion in FY25 to roughly $8.3 billion in FY26 — ~44% growth — while EPS is projected to flip from –$1.02 to about $2.86 over the same period. ^[28]

That combination — rapid top‑line growth, heavy AI mix, and an anticipated earnings inflection — is exactly what keeps Marvell near the center of AI‑themed watchlists despite its recent volatility.

Analyst sentiment: generally positive, with key caveats

Different platforms tally ratings slightly differently, but they tell a consistent story.

StockAnalysis: 32 analysts covering MRVL, consensus “Buy”, average 12‑month price target $95 (about 6% upside), with a low of $67 and a high of $149. ^[29]
MarketBeat: 3 Strong Buys, 20 Buys, 15 Holds; overall “Moderate Buy” with an average target around $94.41. ^[30]
TipRanks: 23 Buys and 9 Holds; Moderate Buy consensus and an average target of about $93.23 (~6.3% upside). ^[31]

Recent individual calls illustrate the split between AI enthusiasm and caution:

UBS: Buy, target $110, with higher long‑term EPS estimates (2027 EPS now modeled near $4.43). ^[32]
Susquehanna: Buy, target raised from $80 to $100 in late November. ^[33]
HSBC (Frank Lee): Initiated coverage at Hold with an $85 target, applauding Marvell as an “important AI player” but arguing that some AI optimism is already reflected in the price and that Broadcom may be better positioned in custom ASICs. ^[34]
TD Cowen: Downgraded the stock from Buy to Hold last month and trimmed its target from $90 to $85, pointing to limited long‑term visibility in custom processor sales to key cloud customers like Amazon and Microsoft and concerns about competition and electro‑optics dynamics. ^[35]

The message: the Street mostly agrees Marvell is a legitimate AI infrastructure winner, but disagrees on how smooth the growth path will be — and what investors should be willing to pay for it.

Valuation: premium AI multiple, conflicting fair‑value models

By classic metrics, Marvell is not cheap.

On various snapshots, MRVL trades around 9–10x trailing sales, notably above broader large‑cap semiconductor peers (roughly 3x), though below some hyper‑growth AI names. TechStock²+1
Forward EPS forecasts imply a PEG ratio just above 1, suggesting that valuation is elevated but not wildly detached from expected growth. ^[36]

Valuation‑focused platforms show a wide dispersion:

The popular narrative on Simply Wall St currently pegs fair value at $90.07, only slightly above the current price and implying MRVL is about 2–3% “undervalued”. ^[37]
The DCF model from the same provider, using more conservative assumptions about long‑term cash‑flow growth, lands near $61, which would frame today’s price as materially overvalued. ^[38]

That spread — from around $60 on cautious models to over $100 on bullish analyst targets — is exactly what makes MRVL a battleground stock ahead of earnings.

Don’t forget the M&A noise: SoftBank rumour as a background factor

Another undercurrent in 2025’s trading has been recurring chatter about potential M&A.

Earlier this month, GuruFocus reported that Marvell shares jumped more than 5% after Bloomberg reported that SoftBank had explored a potential acquisition of Marvell earlier in the year, including the idea of combining it with Arm to build a larger AI hardware platform. Talks did not result in a deal and were described as exploratory, but the episode reinforced the idea that Marvell is viewed as strategically important in AI infrastructure. ^[39]

No follow‑up announcements have emerged, and there is no confirmed transaction on the table today — but the possibility of future strategic interest may be one reason the stock tends to trade with an embedded premium.

Key risks to watch

Alongside the excitement, current research keeps circling back to a few risk themes:

Customer concentration in hyperscale cloud
Several analysts warn that Marvell’s dependence on a handful of large cloud customers (including Amazon and Microsoft) means that changes in in‑house chip roadmaps — such as Amazon’s Trainium 3 or Microsoft’s Maia — could significantly reshape Marvell’s custom‑ASIC opportunity later this decade. ^[40]
AI spending cyclicality and optics competition
A number of notes stress that electro‑optics — a big part of Marvell’s AI data‑center revenue — is a fast‑moving, competitive segment where technology shifts and pricing pressure could erode margins if the company doesn’t stay ahead. ^[41]
Earnings‑reaction volatility
Trefis and others highlight that Marvell’s share price has seen double‑digit swings around recent earnings reports, both up and down. With expectations now elevated and the stock trading at an AI premium, a miss or cautious guidance could hit the shares hard. TechStock²+1
Valuation risk
When DCF‑style fair values sit $20–30 below the current share price and some analysts still see MRVL as a “hold,” the margin for error narrows. If AI capex slows or custom projects ramp more slowly than bulls expect, the multiple could compress quickly. ^[42]

Bottom line: what November 29 tells you about MRVL

As of November 29, 2025, Marvell Technology stock is trading like a high‑conviction AI infrastructure story with a lot to prove in the near term:

The automotive sale and refocus on data‑center AI have cleaned up the narrative and funded aggressive $5+ billion in buybacks. ^[43]
Recent earnings growth and guidance point to 30–40% revenue expansion and a sharp earnings inflection, with Q3 FY26 expected to show ~70% EPS growth year over year. ^[44]
Analyst sentiment is broadly positive, but not unanimous; targets cluster in the mid‑$90s, while some high‑profile downgrades underscore uncertainty around long‑term AI custom‑chip revenue. ^[45]
Valuation assumes continued AI growth and successful execution — and that’s exactly what Tuesday’s earnings and guidance will be asked to validate.

For investors and traders watching MRVL into December, the next few days are likely to be about one simple question: can Marvell’s numbers, and its outlook for AI infrastructure, grow fast enough to justify an already demanding price?

Marvell CEO Matt Murphy talks earnings and AI growth