Micron Stock Today (MU): UBS Lifts Price Target to $275 as AI Memory Boom Collides With Capex Fears

Micron Technology (NASDAQ: MU) is back in the spotlight on Thursday, November 20, 2025, after UBS sharply raised its price target to $275 on the back of an “unusually tight” memory market and booming AI demand — even as investors continue to fret about higher capital spending flagged at a major tech conference this week. ^[1]

As of mid‑afternoon trading, Micron shares are hovering around $220, down roughly 2.5% on the day, but still massively higher year to date after a triple‑digit rally driven by AI data‑center demand and leadership in high‑bandwidth memory (HBM). ^[2]

Key Takeaways for November 20, 2025

UBS hikes Micron’s price target to $275 (from $245) and reiterates a Buy rating, citing extended supply tightness and fully booked HBM capacity through 2026. ^[3]
Micron’s HBM supply is effectively sold out until the end of 2026, underscoring its strategic position in AI accelerators and advanced data centers. ^[4]
At RBC’s Global Technology conference this week, executives signaled upward pressure on annual capex from a current run-rate of about $18 billion, spooking some investors despite strong demand trends. ^[5]
The company continues to highlight tight DRAM and NAND conditions, robust AI‑driven data‑center demand, and growing traction in HBM3E and upcoming HBM4 products. ^[6]
Analysts broadly see this memory up‑cycle as longer and more durable than past cycles, with multiple firms now carrying price targets between roughly $200 and $300 on MU. ^[7]

UBS “Pounds the Table” on Micron: Why the Target Is Now $275

UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri ramped up his bullish case on Micron overnight, raising his price target to $275 from $245 while maintaining a Buy rating. ^[8]

According to UBS and TipRanks’ summary of the call note:

Micron’s HBM (high‑bandwidth memory) capacity is fully booked through the end of 2026, indicating demand from AI accelerator and data‑center customers far exceeds what the company can supply in the near term. ^[9]
The firm’s latest checks suggest industry DRAM supply will remain constrained through at least 2026, with Micron’s bit supply growth likely lagging demand in both DRAM (excluding HBM) and NAND. ^[10]
UBS believes profitability in Micron’s core DRAM business will keep improving, to the point where DDR‑class DRAM gross margins could surpass HBM margins around early 2026, helped by sharp price increases in DDR5 contracts and some mobile DRAM deals. ^[11]

The broker notes that Micron has delivered roughly 170% year‑to‑date share price gains while also posting about 49% revenue growth over the last 12 months and a gross margin near 40%, metrics that, in UBS’s view, still leave room for upside given the company’s AI leverage. ^[12]

UBS is modeling FY2026 EPS around $16–17 per share, which helps underpin the new $275 target and its view that this memory up‑cycle is “more durable” than past booms because so much industry capacity is being funneled into HBM rather than commoditized legacy products. ^[13]

AI, HBM, and Technology Leadership: The Bull Case Behind the Upgrade

Beyond the headline price target, today’s move is really a call on Micron as a core AI infrastructure play, not just a cyclical memory stock.

HBM: Sold Out and Scaling Up

Across recent conference appearances, transcripts, and analyst research, several themes repeat:

Micron has reached HBM market share roughly in line with its overall DRAM share, with HBM3E in volume and HBM4 ramping in 2026. ^[14]
The company plans to begin shipping HBM4 in calendar Q2 with more capacity shifting toward HBM over the next several quarters, supported by packaging partners such as TSMC. ^[15]
Management and UBS both stress that most new industry capacity additions through 2027 are likely to be HBM‑focused, which effectively “crowds out” traditional DRAM supply and supports pricing. ^[16]

Given that HBM is a critical component in GPUs and AI accelerators from companies like Nvidia and AMD, the fact that Micron is booked out through 2026 signals both strong end‑market demand and limited ability for the industry to quickly respond with fresh supply. ^[17]

DRAM, NAND, and Gen 9 NAND

Beyond HBM, Micron is leaning on several technology and product levers:

Leading‑edge DRAM and NAND nodes (including one‑gamma DRAM and 9th‑generation 3D NAND) underpin a roadmap that management says keeps Micron in a leadership position on performance and cost. ^[18]
The company is seeing tight DRAM supply and improving NAND conditions, with pricing recovering across data‑center, PC, smartphone, and auto markets after a brutal downturn in 2023–2024. ^[19]
New products, such as an automotive‑grade UFS 4.1 storage solution built on Gen 9 3D NAND for AI‑enabled vehicles, are expanding Micron’s reach into higher‑margin, AI‑rich end markets. ^[20]

AI as a Multi‑Year Demand Engine

From the Q4 FY2025 earnings call to this week’s Global Technology conference appearance, Micron has been consistent: AI is dramatically increasing the memory and storage intensity of data centers and edge devices. ^[21]

Management and analysts are highlighting:

A multi‑year global build‑out of AI data centers, with more DRAM per server and faster SSDs for AI training and inference workloads. ^[22]
Rising DRAM and NAND content across PCs, smartphones, and automobiles as AI features are embedded throughout devices. ^[23]
Use of GenAI internally by Micron to boost engineering and operational productivity, which analysts say could further support margins over time. ^[24]

Put simply, UBS and other bullish firms view Micron not just as a cyclical supplier benefiting from a temporary shortage, but as a structural winner in the AI memory and storage arms race. ^[25]

Why the Stock Is Down Today: Capex Jitters From the RBC Conference

If the fundamentals and analyst commentary are so positive, why is Micron stock trading lower today?

The answer traces back to this week’s RBC Capital Markets Global Technology, Internet, Media & Telecom Conference, where Micron’s CFO Mark Murphy and CTO Scott DeBoer fielded questions on supply, demand, and spending. ^[26]

What the CFO Said

According to multiple reports and transcripts:

Micron is currently running at about $18 billion in annual capital spending, largely to support advanced nodes, HBM, and clean‑room capacity. ^[27]
Murphy indicated that this capex level is likely to come under upward “pressure” as supply remains tight well past 2026 and as multi‑year agreements with major customers lock in demand. ^[28]
While stressing that Micron intends to remain “extremely disciplined” on investment, he effectively acknowledged that growing AI demand and long‑term contracts will require more spending. ^[29]

That message triggered a modest sell‑off in MU shares on Wednesday and is still weighing on sentiment today, even as UBS’s note lands on the positive side. ^[30]

What the CTO Emphasized

DeBoer, for his part, leaned into the technology upside:

He described Micron as being in its “strongest position in history” technologically, with advanced DRAM nodes ramping well and new products set to come online over the next two years. ^[31]
He highlighted leadership in 3D DRAM and PCIe Gen 6 SSDs, as well as strong growth in data‑center SSD shipments over the last year. ^[32]

In other words, the RBC event simultaneously reinforced Micron’s long‑term AI opportunity and near‑term capex burden — exactly the tension that today’s market is trying to price in.

How Today Fits Into the Bigger 2025 Story for Micron

Even with today’s pullback, Micron remains one of 2025’s standout semiconductor stocks:

Shares have advanced well over 100% year to date, including roughly 24% in just the last month, significantly outpacing the S&P 500. ^[33]
The company has guided to record revenue and earnings in the current fiscal year, with Q1 FY2026 revenue targeted around $12.5 billion and EPS in the mid‑$3s on tight supply and strong AI demand. ^[34]
Gross margins have flipped from negative during the downturn to above 50% in the most recent quarter, with further expansion expected as pricing resets and mix shifts toward HBM and high‑value solutions. ^[35]

Analyst sentiment has followed the fundamentals higher:

TD Cowen recently raised its MU price target to $275, matching today’s UBS level, while maintaining a Buy rating. ^[36]
Firms like Rosenblatt, Mizuho, and Piper Sandler have set targets stretching up toward $265–$300, often tied to views that DRAM supply will remain constrained through 2026 and that AI‑related memory demand is still in early innings. ^[37]

What Investors Are Weighing Now

For investors following Micron today, the story boils down to a few core trade‑offs.

The Bullish Side

Structural AI demand: Training and inference workloads require far more DRAM and faster NAND than traditional compute, and that trend appears durable across hyperscale, enterprise, and edge. ^[38]
HBM and node leadership: Micron has moved from being a “fast follower” to a genuine leader in at least part of the HBM market, with technology nodes and packaging that major AI chipmakers increasingly rely on. ^[39]
Tight supply and pricing power: With HBM capacity effectively sold out and new DRAM supply constrained, Micron is seeing strong contract pricing in DDR5 and mobile DRAM, which feeds directly into margins and EPS. ^[40]

The Risk Side

Rising capex and execution risk: To support AI demand and HBM ramps, Micron must invest heavily in fabs and tools. Higher capex raises break‑even levels and leaves less room for error if demand slows. ^[41]
Cyclicality isn’t dead: Even if this cycle is more “durable,” memory remains historically volatile. A future wave of capacity additions or a slowdown in AI server builds could pressure pricing later in the decade. ^[42]
Competition: Rivals like SK hynix and Samsung are also investing aggressively in HBM and advanced DRAM, and share shifts within that small group can matter a lot for margins. ^[43]

UBS’s new $275 target effectively states that, on balance, the AI/HBM tailwinds and tight‑supply pricing power outweigh capex concerns — at least over the next couple of years. Today’s market move shows that not all investors are ready to fully embrace that thesis at current levels, especially after such a huge run‑up in the stock. ^[44]

Bottom Line

For November 20, 2025, the Micron narrative is clear:

Fundamentals and analyst models keep getting better, driven by AI‑linked demand and HBM leadership.
Investor nerves about capex and the length of the cycle are also rising, creating bouts of volatility even on days with bullish research headlines.

Anyone following MU will want to watch upcoming data points closely — including updated capex plans, HBM ramp details, and the pace of AI server deployments — to judge whether Micron can keep turning today’s supply tightness into durable earnings power.

Disclosure: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Always do your own research or consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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