Microsoft (MSFT) Stock Today: AI Mega‑Deals, Gates Foundation Selling and Wall Street Outlook

Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) is back in the market spotlight today as its share price slips even while the company announces massive AI infrastructure deals, wins fresh analyst support and digests headline‑grabbing selling from the Gates Foundation and company insiders.

As investors debate whether the recent pullback is a buying opportunity or an overdue reset for one of the market’s biggest AI winners, here’s what’s moving Microsoft stock on Tuesday, November 25, 2025.

Microsoft stock price today – MSFT slips after recent bounce

As of 15:24 UTC on November 25, Microsoft shares trade around $468.65, down roughly 1.1% on the day. The stock opened at $474.26 and has moved between $465.09 and $474.88, giving the company an equity value of about $3.85 trillion.

That leaves MSFT about 14–15% below its 52‑week high of $555.45 reached on July 31. Over the last three months, the stock has fallen about 6.6%, while the tech‑heavy Nasdaq Composite has gained roughly 6.2%, meaning Microsoft has notably underperformed the broader tech index. Over 12 months, MSFT is up 13.7% versus the Nasdaq’s 19% gain. ^[1]

The stock’s recent weakness comes despite a strong fundamental backdrop and follows a period of volatility across the “AI super‑scalers,” with broader market commentary highlighting worries over stretched AI valuations and profit‑taking in mega‑cap tech. ^[2]

Interestingly, earlier this week Microsoft shares climbed about 1% to a monthly high, helped by renewed analyst optimism around Azure’s AI growth and a wave of bullish research notes, before giving back those gains in today’s session. ^[3]

AI mega‑deals keep Microsoft at the center of the AI arms race

$9.7 billion IREN GPU cloud contract

One of the biggest underlying drivers of the Microsoft story right now is its push to secure enough compute power to meet AI demand.

On November 3, Microsoft signed a five‑year, $9.7 billion AI cloud computing deal with Australian data‑center operator IREN Limited (NASDAQ: IREN). The agreement gives Microsoft priority access to clusters of Nvidia GB300 GPUs that IREN will deploy at a massive facility in Childress, Texas, expected to support up to 750 megawatts of capacity. Microsoft is prepaying about 20% of the contract value up front. ^[4]

For investors, the takeaway is straightforward: Microsoft is locking in GPU supply at scale to keep feeding Azure AI and its Copilot products as demand outstrips existing capacity.

Deepening AI partnership with Anthropic and NVIDIA

Today’s news flow also highlights a second major AI infrastructure pillar: Microsoft’s deepening partnership with Anthropic and NVIDIA.

A fresh article syndicated via Finviz and Insider Monkey details that on November 18, Microsoft, NVIDIA and Anthropic announced an expanded partnership focused on scaling Anthropic’s Claude AI models on Microsoft Azure (running on NVIDIA infrastructure). Anthropic has agreed to purchase $30 billion of Azure compute capacity, with options to ramp capacity up to 1 gigawatt, while Microsoft plans to invest up to $5 billion in the AI startup. ^[5]

Through the Microsoft Foundry program and Azure, enterprise customers will gain access to Claude models such as Claude Sonnet 4.5, Opus 4.1 and Haiku 4.5, expanding the range of frontier models available on Azure and reinforcing Microsoft’s role as a key AI infrastructure provider. ^[6]

On‑device agents and the broader AI ecosystem

Beyond data‑center capacity, Microsoft is also pushing AI onto the PC itself. A new report from Windows Central notes that Microsoft has unveiled Fara‑7B, a “computer use agent” capable of performing complex tasks directly on a user’s device, positioned as a local agent designed to rival or exceed cloud‑based assistants like OpenAI’s GPT‑4o for certain workflows. ^[7]

This combination of:

locked‑in cloud GPU capacity (IREN),
expanded model partnerships (Anthropic and NVIDIA), and
emerging on‑device agents (Fara‑7B),

gives investors a clearer picture of how Microsoft intends to maintain its AI lead across both cloud and endpoint devices.

Earnings backdrop: cloud and AI are still doing the heavy lifting

Microsoft’s latest results underscore why analysts keep calling MSFT an AI bellwether, even as the share price stumbles.

For its fiscal 2026 first quarter (ended September 30, 2025), Microsoft reported: ^[8]

Revenue:$77.7 billion, up 18% year over year, beating Wall Street estimates.
Net income:$27.7 billion, up around 12% year over year.
GAAP EPS:$3.72; management also highlighted an adjusted EPS of $4.13 when excluding losses from OpenAI‑related investments.
Microsoft Cloud revenue:$49.1 billion, up 26%.
Intelligent Cloud revenue (incl. Azure):$30.9 billion, up 28%.
Azure and other cloud services revenue: up roughly 40%, driven by strong infrastructure demand and AI workloads.

At the same time, Microsoft’s capital expenditures jumped to about $34.9 billion in the quarter, up from $24.2 billion in the prior quarter, largely driven by AI data‑center build‑out. Management has signaled that capex will remain elevated as the company plans to roughly double its data‑center footprint over the next two years. ^[9]

That surge in AI spending is a double‑edged sword for the stock: it underpins Microsoft’s long‑term AI moat but also feeds market worries about over‑investment and the risk of an AI “capex bubble.”

Wall Street still sees Microsoft as an AI leader with upside

Despite the recent pullback, analysts remain overwhelmingly bullish on MSFT.

Evercore ISI: Pullback seen as a buying opportunity

A new note highlighted by Finviz on November 25 reports that Evercore ISI has reiterated an “Outperform” rating on Microsoft with a $640 price target, following the company’s Ignite conference and follow‑up investor meetings. ^[10]

Evercore’s team came away more confident in Microsoft’s AI roadmap, particularly:

Agent 365, described internally as a “registry of registries” for AI agents across an enterprise,
the expansion of Copilot, WorkIQ and the broader Power Platform, and
early evidence that AI agents are already delivering productivity benefits in areas like software development and customer success. ^[11]

The firm explicitly framed the recent pullback in MSFT as an attractive entry point heading into calendar 2026.

Broad bullish consensus and rising price targets

Multiple other research shops have echoed this optimism:

An AI‑generated but editor‑reviewed note on AInvest notes that banks including BMO Capital, Jefferies and UBS maintain “Outperform” or “Buy” ratings on Microsoft, with price targets ranging from about $625 to $730 per share. The piece cites Microsoft’s roughly $293.8 billion in trailing‑twelve‑month revenue (up about 15.6% year over year) and forecasts Azure revenue growth in the high‑30% to low‑40% range into 2026. ^[12]
A detailed analysis from Barchart points out that Wall Street’s consensus rating on MSFT is “Strong Buy” from 48 analysts, with a mean price target of $630.59—implying roughly 33% upside from current levels—and a Street‑high target of $700, or nearly 48% upside. ^[13]
A recent report syndicated through Finviz notes that Wedbush has placed Microsoft alongside Nvidia in its top 10 tech stocks to own into year‑end, calling the company a core beneficiary of the ongoing AI “super‑cycle.” ^[14]
On the retail‑investor side, a widely circulated Motley Fool article published via Yahoo Finance calls Microsoft “one unstoppable AI stock to buy before it soars into the $5 trillion club,” arguing that investors who buy MSFT today could see around 40% total return if the company eventually reaches that valuation milestone. ^[15]

Meanwhile, a fresh Simply Wall St note published today flags that Microsoft shares, after edging higher, have prompted renewed scrutiny of valuation versus fundamentals. The piece emphasizes Microsoft’s strong balance sheet, cash generation and AI‑driven growth but acknowledges that the stock’s strong multi‑year run makes near‑term volatility more likely as investors reassess what they’re willing to pay for that growth. ^[16]

Why the stock is under pressure: AI capex, underperformance and big sellers

If the fundamentals and analyst commentary look so strong, why is Microsoft stock underperforming the Nasdaq in recent months?

Underperforming the Nasdaq after Q1 earnings

The Barchart column “Is Microsoft Stock Underperforming the Nasdaq?” notes that Microsoft’s shares fell 2.9% immediately after its Q1 FY26 earnings release despite beating estimates, as investors focused on how sustainable 40% Azure growth and massive AI capex would be. ^[17]

Key points from that analysis: ^[18]

MSFT is down about 14.7% from its 52‑week high.
Over the past three months, Microsoft is down 6.6%, while the Nasdaq Composite is up 6.2%.
Over the last six months, MSFT has gained 5.3%, versus 19.7% for the Nasdaq.
The stock has been trading below its 50‑day moving average since early November and is hovering near its 200‑day moving average.

The same piece stresses that, despite this price weakness, Wall Street’s price targets still imply 30–45% upside from current levels, echoing the bullish consensus.

Gates Foundation and insider selling

Another factor weighing on sentiment has been a series of high‑profile sales.

A detailed report from CoinCentral explains that the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation Trust sold about 17 million Microsoft shares in Q3 2025, reducing its position by roughly 65%, from $13.9 billion to $4.76 billion—a sale worth about $8.8 billion. ^[19]

According to that analysis: ^[20]

Microsoft shares had already fallen around 8% in the week of the disclosure and were down about 12% from their late‑October peak near $555.
The foundation’s move appears driven primarily by portfolio rebalancing and its plan to increase annual grants to $9 billion by 2026 and eventually spend down its endowment by 2045, rather than specific concerns about Microsoft’s business.
The trust still owns more than 9 million MSFT shares, and Microsoft remains a top holding alongside Berkshire Hathaway and other large‑cap names.

The same article highlights a broader pattern of insider selling at Microsoft over the last six months, including: ^[21]

CEO Satya Nadella selling around 149,205 shares (roughly $75.3 million),
Vice Chair Brad Smith selling 38,500 shares, and
Chief Marketing Officer Takeshi Numoto selling 8,850 shares,

with 12 insider sales and no insider buys reported over the period. While executives often sell for personal diversification or tax reasons, the cluster of sales at elevated prices has added to market nerves.

Jim Cramer: “Microsoft has to stop going down”

Media commentary has also seized on Microsoft’s choppy trading.

A new Insider Monkey recap of comments from CNBC host Jim Cramer, published today, points out that Cramer has repeatedly used Microsoft as an exemplar of business‑to‑business AI, praising the company for having “embraced AI with abundance” through Copilot and Azure. ^[22]

At the same time, he expressed frustration with the share price action, saying that “Microsoft has to stop going down” and suggesting that Microsoft’s deep relationship with OpenAI could give it levers to stabilize the story if needed—for example, by taking a more direct role in OpenAI’s governance and product roadmap. ^[23]

His comments captured a broader market mood: the business fundamentals look strong, but sentiment toward AI‑heavy mega‑caps is currently fragile.

AI capex and valuation worries

Finally, macro‑level concerns about an AI spending boom turning into a bubble are affecting sentiment.

Investopedia’s recent deep dive into Microsoft’s AI investments notes that the company’s AI‑related capital expenditures surged to $34.9 billion in Q1, up from $24.2 billion a quarter earlier, as Microsoft races to expand data centers and GPU capacity. While that spending is directly tied to strong demand for Azure and AI services, some investors worry the market may be overpaying today for growth that might normalize later. ^[24]

Short‑term drawdowns in high‑multiple names like Microsoft, particularly as interest‑rate expectations and AI sentiment shift, are therefore not surprising.

How today’s AI news feeds into the Microsoft investment story

Putting all these threads together, today’s Microsoft stock narrative looks something like this:

AI infrastructure is the core growth driver.
The IREN GPU contract and Anthropic/NVIDIA partnership cement Microsoft’s role as a long‑term AI infrastructure provider, locking in both supply (GPUs, power, data‑center capacity) and demand (Claude commitments, Copilot and Azure AI customers). ^[25]
Cloud and AI demand remain robust.
Q1 FY26 results showed double‑digit revenue and earnings growth, with Azure up about 40% and Microsoft Cloud growing 26%, suggesting that AI‑driven workloads remain in high demand despite economic uncertainties. ^[26]
The main bear argument is about price and capital intensity, not business weakness.
The stock is down from its highs, lagging the Nasdaq, largely because investors are reassessing how much they are willing to pay for high‑growth AI stories that require tens of billions of dollars in ongoing capex. ^[27]
Large holders and insiders are de‑risking after a huge multi‑year run.
The Gates Foundation’s $8.8 billion sale and insider selling have added psychological pressure, even if the stated motives point more toward philanthropic funding and portfolio diversification than a negative view on Microsoft’s fundamentals. ^[28]
Analysts still see meaningful upside.
From Evercore’s $640 target to Street‑high forecasts of $700 and optimistic commentary that MSFT could eventually join a $5 trillion market‑cap club, Wall Street’s base case still assumes continued AI‑driven growth and margin strength. ^[29]

What to watch next for Microsoft stock

For investors following Microsoft this week and beyond, key questions include:

Can Azure sustain ~30–40% growth as new AI capacity from the IREN deal and other data‑center projects comes online, or will growth normalize faster than the market expects? ^[30]
Will AI capex pay off in higher long‑term margins, or will heavy investment continue to pressure free cash flow and return metrics? ^[31]
How quickly will enterprises adopt AI agents like Copilot and Agent 365, and will those use cases translate into durable subscription revenue rather than short‑lived experimentation? ^[32]
Could further insider or institutional selling reignite downside momentum, or will strong buy‑the‑dip interest re‑emerge as MSFT trades further below consensus price targets? ^[33]

For now, Microsoft remains one of the most closely watched stocks in the world—simultaneously a symbol of the AI boom, a test case for mega‑cap tech valuations and a key driver of major equity indices.

Important note

This article is for informational and news purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Always do your own research or consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.

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