Microsoft Stock: What to Know Before the Market Opens on Monday, November 17, 2025

MSFT closed last week with momentum, a packed AI and product news calendar, and a dividend catalyst on deck. Here’s your concise, fact‑checked briefing for the open.

The quick take

Last close: Microsoft finished Friday, Nov. 14, at $510.18 (+1.37% day/day). 52‑week range: $344.79–$555.45. Context: Microsoft briefly joined the $4 trillion market‑cap club this summer on AI strength. ^[1]
This week’s catalysts: (1) Microsoft Ignite kicks off Nov. 18–21 in San Francisco (with optional pre‑day sessions on Nov. 17)—expect AI, Windows, Copilot and cloud headlines; (2) Ex‑dividend date is Nov. 20 for the $0.91 quarterly payout (payable Dec. 11). ^[2]

1) Price and positioning heading into Monday

Microsoft shares closed at $510.18 on Friday with ~28.5M shares traded. The stock’s 52‑week range sits at $344.79 to $555.45, leaving room to the prior high if Ignite or other AI news lands well. Remember, the company crossed $4T market value on July 31, 2025, underscoring how tightly near‑term moves are tied to generative‑AI execution and capacity. ^[3]

Numbers at a glance (as of Nov. 14 close): price $510.18; day range $497.44–$511.60; 52‑week range $344.79–$555.45; market cap fluctuating in the $3.7T–$4T zone since July’s milestone. ^[4]

2) Near‑term catalysts investors care about this week

Ignite 2025 (Nov. 18–21; pre‑day Nov. 17). Ignite is Microsoft’s flagship technical conference and a launch pad for Copilot, Windows, Azure AI, and security updates. The event guide emphasizes live keynotes at the Chase Center and deep‑dive sessions; expect product news flow to start around the Tuesday keynote, with chatter beginning during Monday’s pre‑day. ^[5]

Dividend watch (income holders). Microsoft’s board raised the quarterly dividend to $0.91 in September. The ex‑dividend date is Thursday, Nov. 20; payable Dec. 11. If you are positioning for the payout, the ex‑date timing matters for eligibility. ^[6]

Annual meeting date. Microsoft’s 2025 Annual Shareholders Meeting is Dec. 5 (virtual, 8:30 a.m. PT)—governance and compensation proposals can occasionally influence headlines. ^[7]

3) Fresh headlines shaping sentiment

AI infrastructure expansion keeps accelerating.

Portugal: Multiple reports highlight a planned $10 billion Microsoft investment to develop AI infrastructure at the Sines data hub, further signaling Europe‑focused capacity build‑out. ^[8]
Compute supply deals: Earlier this month Microsoft agreed to a five‑year, $9.7B contract with data‑center operator IREN to secure next‑gen NVIDIA capacity at a Texas campus—designed to ease near‑term compute bottlenecks. ^[9]
‘AI superfactory’ narrative: Microsoft has been previewing its “Azure AI superfactory” architecture and new Fairwater data centers (Atlanta/Wisconsin), with executives framing multi‑site training as a way to shorten AI development cycles. ^[10]

Product momentum heading into Ignite.

Copilot: Microsoft recently announced enhanced AI search in Copilot, including more prominent citations and a dedicated search experience—an area to watch for deeper integrations at Ignite. ^[11]
Windows & AI: Microsoft outlined new Windows 11 AI upgrades (voice trigger “Hey Copilot,” expanded Vision tools, and agentic actions) as it leans into “AI PCs” ahead of 2026. ^[12]

Security & reliability in focus.

Secure Future Initiative (SFI): A November update details progress on Microsoft’s security program—front‑of‑mind after recent outages. Expect Ignite sessions to revisit SFI hardening, defaults and identity. ^[13]
Recent outages: Microsoft resolved a widespread Azure portal incident on Oct. 29 and reported a Nov. 5 thermal event affecting storage units; coverage also noted knock‑on impacts to some government and enterprise services. Reliability posture remains a near‑term discussion item. ^[14]

Gaming tailwind post‑launch weekend.

Call of Duty: Black Ops 7 launched Nov. 14 and is day‑one on Game Pass Ultimate and PC Game Pass—useful context for engagement/subscription commentary around the holiday period. ^[15]

Regulatory watch (still active, but less acute this week).

EU Teams case: Brussels formally accepted Microsoft commitments to unbundle Teams from Office at discounted pricing, avoiding a fine and setting 10‑year obligations—reducing a lingering overhang. ^[16]
U.S. scrutiny: The FTC’s broad antitrust look at Microsoft’s cloud/AI partnerships continues in the background, and a private class action filed in October challenges aspects of the OpenAI partnership. These aren’t near‑term trading catalysts, but they remain disclosure‑level risks. ^[17]

4) The latest scorecard: earnings and guidance

Microsoft’s fiscal Q1 2026 (reported Oct. 29) showed revenue of $77.7B (+18% YoY) and EPS of $4.13, with operating income +24%. Management pointed to margin improvements in Commercial Cloud and continued AI investment. In its outlook commentary, Microsoft guided current‑quarter revenue to $79.5B–$80.6B; investors are balancing that growth against heavier capex. ^[18]

A July update highlighted the scale of AI capex—Microsoft said it would spend a record ~$30B in a single quarter as Copilot and Azure demand stepped up. That spend, and the July $4T market‑cap milestone, frame why capacity deals (IREN) and data‑center buildouts (Portugal/Superfactory) are getting outsized attention. ^[19]

5) What Wall Street is saying right now

Across recent notes, 12‑month price targets cluster in the low‑to‑mid‑$600s from major brokers, reflecting conviction in Azure/Copilot monetization, even as analysts debate the cadence of AI capex and supply constraints. Examples: Morgan Stanley $650, Wedbush $625, Wells Fargo $675. (Targets vary and change frequently—always check your broker’s latest.) ^[20]

6) Key dates & things to watch before Monday’s bell

Ignite pre‑day (Mon, Nov. 17): Agenda build‑up and early product teases could hit the wire; the main keynotes start Tuesday. Keep an eye on Copilot, Windows AI, Azure AI platform updates, and any security announcements tied to SFI. ^[21]
Dividend timeline:Ex‑dividend Nov. 20; payable Dec. 11 for $0.91. Positioning around the ex‑date can influence short‑term flows. ^[22]
Reliability updates: Given recent Azure incidents, watch the Azure Status page and support communications for follow‑through; operational stability headlines can move large‑cap cloud names on the margin. ^[23]

7) Bottom line for Monday, Nov. 17

Set‑up: MSFT enters the week near $510 with room below its 52‑week high, a front‑loaded AI news cycle (Ignite), and a dividend catalyst on Thursday. Near‑term moves will likely track (a) quality and scope of Ignite disclosures, (b) any security/reliability updates, and (c) continuing AI‑capacity news (deals and data‑center buildouts). ^[24]
Risk checks: Regulatory matters (EU Teams settlement reduces one overhang; U.S. scrutiny persists), compute/power constraints across the AI ecosystem, and service reliability are the watch‑outs that could temper enthusiasm. ^[25]

Sources & further reading

Price/Range: Nasdaq historicals and Macrotrends show $510.18 close on Nov. 14 and current 52‑week metrics. ^[26]
Events:Ignite 2025 (Nov. 18–21; pre‑day Nov. 17) official sites and guides. ^[27]
Dividend: Microsoft press release (Sept. 15) with $0.91 payout, ex‑date Nov. 20, payable Dec. 11. ^[28]
Earnings/Guidance: Investor relations transcript/data and post‑print reporting. ^[29]
AI Infrastructure: Reuters on Portugal investment and IREN deal; Microsoft on superfactory architecture. ^[30]
Security/Outages: SFI November update; Reuters and Azure Status history on incidents. ^[31]
Analyst targets: Recent round‑ups and individual notes. ^[32]

Editor’s note: This brief is intended for information purposes only and is not investment advice. All figures and dates are current as of Sunday, Nov. 16, 2025 based on cited sources.

Microsoft market cap jumps to $4 trillion