MOH Stock Today, Nov. 24, 2025: Molina Healthcare Rallies on ACA Subsidy Hopes as Lawsuits and Margin Pressures Linger

Molina Healthcare Inc. (NYSE: MOH) shares bounced higher on Monday as traders reacted to fresh headlines about a possible extension of Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies, even as the managed-care insurer continues to grapple with margin pressure, new class‑action lawsuits and a sharp rerating of its valuation.

As of Monday’s close, MOH stock finished at $145.30, up about 2.6% for the day after trading between the low $140s and low $150s. ^[1] The move extends a modest rebound off recent lows but barely dents a brutal sell‑off: Molina remains more than 50% below its 52‑week high of $359.97, with a 52‑week change of roughly –52%. ^[2]

At Monday’s close, Molina carried a market capitalization of around $7.5 billion, with trailing 12‑month earnings per share (EPS) of $16.24 and a price‑to‑earnings (P/E) ratio near 9x, well below typical managed-care multiples. ^[3]

MOH stock today: price action and trading snapshot

Key numbers for Molina Healthcare (MOH) on Monday, November 24, 2025: ^[4]

Closing price: $145.30
Daily move: +$3.74 (about +2.6%)
Intraday range: roughly $141–$151
Volume: ~6.9 million shares, more than 4× its recent average daily volume near 1.5 million
52‑week range: $133.40 – $359.97
52‑week change: about –52.5%

The heavy volume underscores how closely investors are watching the name following October’s earnings shock and a wave of legal and policy developments.

What’s driving Molina Healthcare shares on November 24, 2025?

1. Policy headlines: ACA subsidy extension talk lifts managed-care stocks

The main macro catalyst on Monday came from Washington. Multiple reports, including Politico coverage summarized by Investopedia, indicate that President Donald Trump is preparing a proposal to extend ACA subsidies for roughly two years, with updated income limits and minimum premium payments. ^[5]

That potential extension would preserve support that helps keep premiums and cost‑sharing affordable for ACA exchange enrollees. For Molina and peers like Centene and Oscar Health—insurers with meaningful marketplace exposure—this could:

Support enrollment stability
Reduce churn and adverse selection risk
Improve visibility on premium rates and medical cost trends

In intraday trading Monday, MOH shares were reported “up over 3%” as health insurer stocks broadly advanced on the subsidy headlines, with Molina’s move in the 3–4% range at one point during the afternoon. ^[6]

While Molina has already been paring back Marketplace exposure to focus on margins, ACA policy still matters: volatility in subsidies affects the overall risk pool and pricing dynamics that feed into both Molina’s strategy and investor sentiment.

2. Class‑action lawsuits keep legal risk in the spotlight

Monday’s rally came even as new class‑action notices hit the tape, adding to Molina’s list of legal headaches.

Two separate law‑firm announcements on November 24—from Levi & Korsinsky and The Gross Law Firm—highlight a putative securities class action on behalf of investors who bought MOH shares between February 5, 2025 and July 23, 2025. ^[7]

According to their notices, the complaint alleges that Molina and certain executives:

Misrepresented or failed to fully disclose internal medical cost trend assumptions
Were experiencing a “dislocation” between premium rates and underlying medical costs
Downplayed dependence on unusually low utilization in behavioral health, pharmacy, and inpatient/outpatient services
Maintained 2025 EPS guidance that was “substantially likely to be cut” given these trends

The law firms argue that when the cost pressures and guidance cuts became clear in mid‑2025, Molina’s stock price dropped sharply, allegedly harming investors in the class period. ^[8]

Several firms (including DJS Law Group, in prior releases) have now announced similar investigations or suits, raising the prospect of consolidated litigation. ^[9] While such announcements are relatively common after a large stock drop, they add headline risk and create uncertainty around potential legal costs or settlements.

3. A big Florida Medicaid win – and fresh long‑term debt

On the company‑specific front, two items from November are particularly relevant for MOH stock:

New Florida Medicaid contract

On November 14, 2025, Molina announced that Florida’s Agency for Health Care Administration intends to award Molina Healthcare of Florida a contract to provide Statewide Medicaid Managed Care and CHIP services to children with special health‑care needs under the CMS program. ^[10]

Key details:

Molina would be the sole plan selected for this population
Expected to serve roughly 120,000 enrollees
Premiums under the program are estimated at about $5 billion in 2025
The contract term is expected to run through December 31, 2030, with an effective start date still to be set

This is a major growth win in a core segment (high‑acuity Medicaid) and could be a meaningful long‑term revenue contributor—though Molina notes the usual risks, such as possible bid protests by competitors or lower‑than‑expected enrollment. ^[11]

$850 million in 6.5% senior notes due 2031

Separately, on November 17, Molina priced $850 million of 6.500% senior notes due 2031, with net proceeds of roughly $838 million earmarked mainly to repay outstanding delayed‑draw term loans under its credit agreement. ^[12]

The move:

Extends Molina’s maturity profile with fixed‑rate long‑term debt
Slightly increases interest expense versus short‑term borrowing but adds balance sheet flexibility
Signals that management prefers low‑double‑digit leverage financed in the bond market rather than remaining heavily reliant on bank facilities

Investors will be watching future quarters to see how the added interest burden interacts with Molina’s already tightened margins.

4. Small insider sale draws attention, but impact looks limited

On Monday, director Richard M. Schapiro filed a Form 144 indicating an intention to sell 357 shares of MOH through broker Piper Sandler. ^[13]

Given that Molina has more than 51 million shares outstanding, the prospective sale represents a tiny fraction of the float and is unlikely to be significant on its own. ^[14] Nonetheless, in the wake of a major drawdown, investors often scrutinize any insider transactions for hints about management and board confidence.

Fundamentals: from earnings shock to Medicaid “reset”

Q3 2025: revenue beat, profit warning

The real inflection point for MOH stock came with Q3 2025 earnings, released in late October.

According to the company’s earnings call transcript and third‑party summaries: ^[15]

Revenue: ~$11.48 billion, beating forecasts of around $10.94 billion
Adjusted EPS: $1.84, dramatically below expectations near $3.90–$3.95
Consolidated medical cost ratio (MCR): ~92.6%, indicating very thin gross margins
Adjusted pre‑tax margin: roughly 1%
Full‑year 2025 EPS guidance: cut from about $19 to $14

Management pointed to higher-than-expected utilization in behavioral health, pharmacy, and long‑term services and supports across its Medicaid and Marketplace businesses, outpacing rate increases and leaving Molina in what CEO Joseph Zubretsky called a “temporary period of rate and trend imbalance.” ^[16]

The market reaction was swift: shares fell roughly 20% in after‑hours trading following the release, accelerating a decline that had already been underway since early 2025. ^[17]

Q2 2025: early warning signs

Q2 results had already hinted at trouble:

Adjusted EPS: $5.48 on about $10.9 billion in premium revenue
Consolidated MCR: about 90.4%
Guiding full‑year EPS down to “no less than $19”, from prior expectations around $24.50 ^[18]

Molina highlighted:

Elevated Medicaid costs in behavioral health and high‑cost drugs
A deteriorating Marketplace risk pool, with internal trend assumptions in that segment rising from 7% to 11%
Plans to keep Marketplace at roughly 10% of revenue and prioritize margin restoration over growth ^[19]

Taken together, Q2 and Q3 framed 2025 as a reset year driven by an unexpectedly sharp rise in utilization across several lines of business.

Medicaid environment: redeterminations, H.R. 1 and expansion risk

The macro backdrop is also shifting against Medicaid plans.

A recent analysis from Georgetown University’s Center for Children and Families notes that the five largest national Medicaid managed‑care companies—including Molina—are facing the combined impact of: ^[20]

The unwinding of pandemic‑era continuous coverage
New work reporting requirements and six‑month eligibility redeterminations for expansion adults under H.R. 1, which is projected to cut federal Medicaid payments by roughly $990 billion over the next decade

In Q3, all five major players saw Medicaid enrollment decline, with Molina recording the largest percentage drop (about 2.8%), which it attributed to continued redeterminations. ^[21]

In its filings, Molina has estimated that H.R. 1 could eventually reduce enrollment by 15–20% for roughly 1.3 million members in its Medicaid expansion population, though it expects any acuity shift to be “modest and gradual.” ^[22]

That combination—higher utilization, lagging rates, and looming policy‑driven enrollment declines—explains much of the caution currently embedded in MOH’s share price.

Is MOH stock now “too cheap”? Valuation and analyst views

Valuation snapshot

Based on today’s close:

Share price: $145.30
Trailing EPS (TTM): $16.24
Trailing P/E: ~8.9x
Forward P/E: about 12x (based on consensus forward EPS) ^[23]

Independent valuation sites point out that this multiple is far below Molina’s history. One analysis pegs Molina’s P/E at 8.74 as of Nov. 21, compared with a 10‑year average around 20x, implying the stock trades at a roughly 57% discount to its long‑term valuation norm and well below both healthcare sector and peer averages. ^[24]

Simply Wall St takes the argument further, scoring Molina as “undervalued” on several metrics. Their work suggests: ^[25]

The stock is down about 52.5% over the past year
A detailed discounted cash flow model produces an intrinsic value estimate near $649 per share, implying the stock could be more than 70% below their fair value estimate
A “fair” P/E ratio of 19.78x versus the current ~8x, again pointing to substantial potential upside if margins normalize

Those numbers rely on long‑term cash‑flow and growth assumptions that are open to debate, but they highlight just how aggressively MOH has been repriced since its April high near $360. ^[26]

Wall Street consensus: cautious, but not capitulating

Analyst sentiment is mixed but not outright bearish:

StockAnalysis reports that 13 analysts currently cover MOH, with a consensus “Hold” rating and an average 12‑month price target around $205.67—roughly 42% above Monday’s close. ^[27]
A recent Barchart‑syndicated piece notes 18 analysts with recommendations:
- 3 “Strong Buy”
- 12 “Hold”
- 1 “Moderate Sell”
- 2 “Strong Sell”
  and an average price target of $172.53, about 22% above recent levels. ^[28]
TipRanks and other aggregators similarly show average targets in the $170–$205 range, generally implying 20–40% upside if Molina can stabilize earnings. ^[29]

In other words, the Street broadly acknowledges the stock is cheap versus history, but lingering uncertainty around medical costs, Medicaid policy and legal risk keeps most recommendations at “Hold” rather than “Buy.”

A notable contrarian: Michael Burry’s Scion Asset Management

One high‑profile value investor appears to see opportunity. A recent 24/7 Wall St. article highlighted that Michael Burry’s Scion Asset Management initiated a position in Molina in Q3, with the piece noting that MOH had fallen roughly 64% from peak and was trading around 9.3x trailing earnings at the time. ^[30]

While public filings don’t reveal Burry’s thesis, his involvement has drawn attention from some value‑oriented investors who view Molina as a classic “good business, bad year” setup.

Key risks and themes to watch for MOH stock

Looking beyond Monday’s bounce, several issues are likely to drive Molina Healthcare’s share price into 2026:

Will Medicaid rates catch up to cost trends?
Management has emphasized that much of the pressure stems from trend outpacing rates, especially in Medicaid. Investors will be watching upcoming rate cycles—particularly the large January renewals—to see whether states meaningfully increase capitation rates to reflect higher acuity and utilization. ^[31]
Marketplace (ACA exchange) strategy after subsidy headlines
Molina has intentionally kept Marketplace exposure relatively small and is willing to shrink that book further to restore margins. Yet ACA policy changes, including any extension of subsidies, can alter the risk‑reward balance of that business line. Monday’s rally shows that policy risk cuts both ways. ^[32]
Execution on new contracts like Florida’s CMS program
The Florida award could add a high‑acuity, high‑revenue contract with an expected $5 billion in 2025 premiums and a term running through 2030, if fully implemented. Solid execution—without underpricing or cost overruns—would help rebuild confidence in Molina’s growth narrative. ^[33]
Leverage and interest burden from the 6.5% senior notes
The new $850 million bond issue will be used to refinance term loans, but it still increases fixed interest costs at a time when pre‑tax margins are compressed. Maintaining strong interest coverage and credit metrics is critical for a company that depends heavily on government contracts and thin operating margins. ^[34]
Outcome and cost of securities litigation
The various class‑action lawsuits may take years to resolve. While many such cases end in moderate settlements relative to market cap, investors will want clarity on potential financial impact, defense costs, and any implications for governance or disclosure practices. ^[35]
Evolving federal and state policy under H.R. 1 and future budget debates
With H.R. 1’s Medicaid provisions expected to cut federal funding significantly and reshape expansion enrollment, Molina’s ability to model, price and manage this transition will be central to its long‑term earnings power. ^[36]

Bottom line: MOH stock after today’s move

On November 24, 2025, MOH stock is trying to stabilize:

The share price has rebounded modestly from recent lows and reacted positively to potential ACA subsidy extensions. ^[37]
Valuation metrics suggest deep compression, with the stock trading at a single‑digit P/E and more than 50% below its 52‑week high. ^[38]
At the same time, Molina is working through elevated medical costs, policy uncertainty, and fresh legal overhangs, all of which justify a degree of caution. ^[39]

For short‑term traders, MOH is likely to remain sensitive to headlines about ACA subsidies, Medicaid rate updates, and any new disclosures in the class‑action cases. For longer‑term investors, the core questions are whether Molina can restore mid‑single‑digit margins in Medicaid, right‑size Marketplace exposure, and convert contract wins like Florida into sustainable, profitable growth.

As always, this article is for informational and news purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Anyone considering an investment in MOH or any other security should conduct their own research and, where appropriate, consult a licensed financial professional.

MOH Stock is UNDERVALUED: Molina Healthcare Stock Analysis