Sydney – 24 November 2025
Monash IVF Group Ltd (ASX: MVF) has surged back into the spotlight today after rejecting an 80¢-per-share takeover proposal from a private equity–backed consortium, sending the embattled fertility stock up around 40–41% to about 86¢ and putting it among the top performers on the ASX All Ordinaries Index. [1]
The dramatic move comes just days after fresh disclosures about falling patient numbers and market share following high-profile embryo mix-up incidents – and on the same day the company confirmed a new board appointment and renewed broker support pointing to sizeable upside from current levels. [2]
Key takeaways
- Takeover offer: Consortium led by Genesis Capital and Washington H. Soul Pattinson offered A$0.80 per MVF share, valuing Monash IVF at about A$311.7 million (~US$201m). [3]
- Board response: Directors unanimously rejected the non‑binding, indicative offer, calling it “opportunistic” and materially undervaluing the business at just 7.7x forecast FY25 EBITDA, below recent IVF-sector deal multiples. [4]
- Share price reaction: MVF shares jumped roughly 40–41% to the mid‑80c range, their strongest one-day gain on record and the highest level since mid‑May. [5]
- Broker view: Macquarie has an “outperform” rating and 12‑month price target of 94¢, implying around 54% upside from last week’s 61¢ close before the bid and today’s rally. [6]
- Governance update: Former health executive Dr Dwayne Crombie joins the board as a director effective 24 November 2025, with no initial holding in MVF shares. [7]
Monash IVF share price rockets after 80¢ bid gets knocked back
The catalyst for today’s sharp move was Monash IVF’s early-morning announcement that it had rejected an unsolicited, non‑binding indicative offer (NBIO) from a consortium comprising Genesis Capital and Washington H. Soul Pattinson (WHSP). [8]
The consortium offered A$0.80 per share in cash for the 80.4% of the company it does not already own, valuing Monash IVF at A$311.7 million. That price represented about a 31% premium to Friday’s close of 61¢. [9]
The suitors already control roughly 19.6% of Monash IVF, and had indicated that some shareholders might be able to roll their equity into a privatised, unlisted version of the company under a proposed scheme of arrangement. [10]
Instead of accepting, the board said the offer:
- Implied an enterprise value/underlying FY25 EBITDA multiple of 7.7x, a level they argued is below comparable Australian fertility deals;
- Was highly conditional, with meaningful uncertainty around financing and final documentation; and
- Arrived at a time when the company’s share price was depressed by short‑term issues, rather than its longer‑term earnings power. [11]
Chairman Richard Davis told investors the proposal materially undervalued Monash IVF and was “opportunistically timed” after a bruising year for shareholders. [12]
The response sent the stock sharply higher. By late session, MVF was trading around 86c, up about 40–41% on the day, compared with a roughly 1.3% gain for the broader ASX 200. [13]
Even after today’s surge, the shares remain well below their 2025 starting point – down roughly 30% year-to-date, based on independent price data. [14]
Macquarie still sees 54% upside for this beaten-down ASX All Ords healthcare stock
Today’s price action follows a series of bullish broker updates on Monash IVF, most notably from Macquarie Group, which has repeatedly highlighted the stock as a battered ASX All Ordinaries healthcare name with recovery potential. [15]
In analysis cited across several outlets, Macquarie argues that: [16]
- The heavy sell‑off following this year’s embryo incidents has already priced in much of the reputational and operational damage.
- At recent levels around 61c prior to the bid, valuation was “undemanding” relative to both the company’s history and peers.
- Underlying FY26 net profit after tax (NPAT) is likely to land toward the bottom of guidance (A$20–23 million), reflecting near‑term headwinds in Australia and margin pressure from higher costs.
- From FY27 onwards, Monash IVF should benefit from structural tailwinds, including demographic trends, increased use of genetic testing, and social shifts that support demand for fertility services.
On that basis, Macquarie maintains an “outperform” rating and a 12‑month price target of 94¢, implying around 54% upside from last week’s 61¢ close before the takeover news. [17]
Other broker data collated by TipRanks shows at least one additional Buy recommendation with a target near 90¢, indicating broader analyst expectations that the stock can trade meaningfully higher than both the pre‑bid price and the 80¢ offer level. [18]
Embryo mix-up scandals still cloud demand and market share
The optimism from brokers sits alongside sobering fundamentals in the wake of two highly publicised embryo transfer errors earlier this year.
In April, Monash IVF confirmed that a patient at its Brisbane clinic had been implanted with another couple’s embryo and subsequently gave birth to their child – the first such case publicly reported in Australia. [19]
Then in June, the company admitted a second incident at its Clayton laboratory in Victoria, where a patient received her own embryo instead of her partner’s, contrary to the agreed treatment plan. Both episodes were reported to regulators and insurers, and prompted an expanded internal and external review into safety protocols. [20]
The fallout has been significant:
- Reuters reporting shows MVF shares were down about 31% by early June following the second incident, and had fallen more than 38% between April and June. [21]
- In mid‑June, long‑time executive Michael Knaap resigned as CEO, with CFO Malik Jainudeen stepping in as acting chief executive. [22]
- Jefferies analysts warned that the publicity surrounding the errors would likely lead to short- to medium‑term market share losses in the Australian IVF market. [23]
Those concerns appear to be playing out. In an update last week, Monash IVF told investors that new patient registrations and its overall market share had fallen in the first four months of the current financial year, citing the ongoing impact of the embryo incidents and heightened competition. [24]
The company has responded with:
- Tighter verification and patient confirmation procedures in its labs;
- An expanded independent review led by senior counsel; and
- A renewed focus on governance and culture as regulators step up oversight of the IVF sector. [25]
New director Dwayne Crombie joins as board refresh continues
Today’s corporate reshuffle extends beyond the takeover news. Monash IVF has confirmed the appointment of Dr Dwayne Crombie as an independent non‑executive director, effective 24 November 2025. [26]
According to the initial director’s interest notice, Crombie holds no relevant interest in the company’s securities, meaning he joins the board without an immediate financial stake. [27]
Crombie is a seasoned healthcare executive, best known for senior roles in health insurance and hospital management. His appointment follows a broader board and leadership refresh that includes:
- The earlier installation of a new CEO (after Knaap’s resignation in June); [28]
- Moves to withhold executive bonuses during the fallout from the embryo incidents; [29]
- Monash IVF’s removal from the S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries and ASX 300 indices in September – a reflection of its reduced market capitalisation after this year’s share‑price slide. [30]
The addition of Crombie is likely aimed at bolstering the board’s healthcare expertise and regulatory credibility at a time when both investors and patients are scrutinising the company’s governance.
How the takeover bid reshapes the investment story
For investors following Monash IVF, today’s developments materially change the narrative around the stock:
- Floor under the valuation – but not a ceiling
- The rejected 80¢ offer effectively sets a reference point for what sophisticated bidders believe the business is worth today.
- The board’s stance – and the market’s reaction – suggest many shareholders think fair value lies well above that level, especially if operational issues can be stabilised. [31]
- Renewed takeover speculation
- With Genesis Capital and WHSP already owning nearly one-fifth of the register, investors will be watching closely to see whether the consortium returns with a sweetened proposal or whether rival bidders emerge. [32]
- Market commentary today, including coverage in major Australian financial outlets, notes that Monash IVF’s rebound and bid interest may put it firmly back on the radar for corporate activity in the healthcare space. [33]
- Fundamentals still matter
- Despite today’s pop, MVF is still trading below its 2025 highs and remains down around 30% for the year, underscoring that investor confidence is not fully restored. [34]
- Sustained share‑price recovery will likely depend on rebuilding patient trust, stabilising market share and meeting earnings guidance, not just deal speculation. [35]
- Broker targets vs. offer price
- Macquarie’s 94¢ target and other broker estimates near 90¢ are above the rejected 80¢ bid, but not dramatically higher than today’s trading range after the rally. [36]
- That leaves a narrower margin of safety for short‑term traders, even if longer‑term investors still see upside based on improved sentiment and potential further bids.
What it means for current and prospective MVF shareholders
From an investor’s perspective, Monash IVF is now at an inflection point:
- Bid interest plus broker support underline that professional investors still see value in the business, especially given its position as a major fertility provider in Australia and Malaysia. [37]
- Reputational and regulatory risks remain elevated: the embryo mix-ups, CEO turnover, and declines in new patients and market share show that the company is still working through serious operational issues. [38]
- Corporate activity could drive further volatility: any revised approach from Genesis/WHSP or a new suitor could push the share price higher again – but if talks stall or no higher bid emerges, the stock could drift back toward levels more in line with earnings and growth prospects. [39]
As always, investors should consider their risk tolerance, time horizon and personal financial circumstances. This article is general information only and does not constitute financial advice.
MVF snapshot after today’s moves
- Ticker: Monash IVF Group Ltd (ASX: MVF)
- Index: Member of the S&P/ASX All Ordinaries; removed from the ASX 300 and Small Ordinaries in September 2025. [40]
- Sector: Healthcare – fertility and assisted reproductive services in Australia and Malaysia. [41]
- Last traded price (approx.): ~A$0.86 (up ~40–41% on the day). [42]
- Rejected takeover price: A$0.80 per share, valuing equity at ~A$311.7m. [43]
- Key broker target: A$0.94 (Macquarie, “outperform”); other recent target ~A$0.90 (Buy). [44]
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.afr.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.sharecafe.com.au, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. news.ssbcrack.com, 7. www.tipranks.com, 8. www.marketindex.com.au, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.marketindex.com.au, 11. www.marketindex.com.au, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.intelligentinvestor.com.au, 15. www.fool.com.au, 16. news.ssbcrack.com, 17. news.ssbcrack.com, 18. www.tipranks.com, 19. news.ssbcrack.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.afr.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.tipranks.com, 27. www.tipranks.com, 28. www.marketscreener.com, 29. www.zonebourse.com, 30. www.marketscreener.com, 31. www.marketindex.com.au, 32. www.reuters.com, 33. www.afr.com, 34. www.intelligentinvestor.com.au, 35. www.afr.com, 36. news.ssbcrack.com, 37. www.intelligentinvestor.com.au, 38. www.reuters.com, 39. www.sharecafe.com.au, 40. fnarena.com, 41. www.intelligentinvestor.com.au, 42. www.marketwatch.com, 43. www.reuters.com, 44. news.ssbcrack.com
