MP Materials (MP) Stock Today, November 23, 2025: Saudi JV Shock, Hedge Fund Buying, and Insider Selling After a Monster Rally

Key Takeaways

• Last price: MP Materials (NYSE: MP) last traded around $55.27 per share on Friday, November 21, giving the rare earth producer a market cap of roughly $9.8 billion. ^[1]
• Big year, big pullback: After a huge 2025 rally that saw the stock up several hundred percent year‑to‑date and briefly near $100, MP now sits almost halfway between its 52‑week low of about $15.56 and its high near $100.25. ^[2]
• Today’s fresh news (Nov 23):
  • Simply Wall St highlights that MP shares are down about 5.7% since announcing a Saudi rare‑earth joint venture with the U.S. government and Ma’aden, and pegs a fair value near $80.77 per share, ~46% above the current price. ^[3]
  • MarketBeat reports new hedge fund positions: Entropy Technologies LP (≈$1.32m stake) and AXQ Capital LP (≈$694k stake) disclosed fresh holdings in MP. ^[4]
  • New analysis pieces from SMM, StrategicMetalsInvest and tech commentator Ian Khan frame MP as a central player in the Middle East’s industrial shift and the U.S.–China rare earths rivalry, with particular focus on the Saudi joint venture. ^[5]
  • Technical screens at Investing.com currently flag MP as a Strong Sell” on pure technicals, with an RSI near 39 and most indicators pointing to near‑term weakness. ^[6]
• Story behind the volatility:
  • The U.S. Department of Defense (now formally rebranded the Department of War) has become MP’s largest shareholder via a $400 million preferred‑stock deal plus a long‑term price floor and magnet offtake agreement. ^[7]
  • Australian billionaire Gina Rinehart now owns 8.4% of MP, making her the top investor ahead of founder‑CEO James Litinsky’s 7.9% stake. ^[8]
  • Meanwhile, insiders including Litinsky and CFO Ryan Corbett have sold over $27 million worth of stock in the last quarter. ^[9]

Below is a detailed look at MP Materials stock as of November 23, 2025, with a focus on today’s news and what it means for investors watching this strategically critical, extremely volatile name.

MP Materials Stock Snapshot (as of the November 21 Close)

Even though markets are closed today (Sunday), we can anchor on Friday’s close to understand where MP stands:

• Last trade: ≈ $55.27
• Market cap: ≈ $9.8 billion ^[10]
• 52‑week range: ≈ $15.56 – $100.25 ^[11]
• Valuation: Negative earnings, with a trailing P/E around ‑78 and a price‑to‑sales multiple that reflects investors paying up for future, government‑backed growth rather than current profits. ^[12]
• Performance in 2025:
  • Investor materials and media reports variously estimate MP is up ~180–260% year‑to‑date, depending on the exact start point and data provider. ^[13]
  • The stock hit just under $99 in mid‑October, at which point it had rallied more than 500% for the year before a sharp pullback. ^[14]

In short, MP is no longer a small cap mining curiosity; it’s a high‑beta, government‑backed strategic asset that has already priced in a lot of future promise — and is now digesting that move.

Today’s News: Saudi JV Fallout, Hedge Fund Buying and Fresh Narratives

1. Simply Wall St: MP Down 5.7% After Saudi JV Announcement

Simply Wall St’s piece published today notes that MP is about 5.7% lower since it announced a landmark joint venture on November 19 with the U.S. Department of War and Saudi mining giant Ma’aden to build a rare earth refinery in Saudi Arabia. ^[15]

Key points from that analysis:

• The JV aims to diversify global rare earth supply chains away from China while reinforcing U.S. economic and national security interests. ^[16]
• Simply Wall St frames MP as a potential leader of the North American rare earth supply chain, but stresses that the near‑term story still hinges on execution: ramping new refining and magnet manufacturing assets without major stumbles. ^[17]
• Their narrative model projects MP could reach roughly $1.0 billion in revenue and $236 million in earnings by 2028, implying 61% annual revenue growth and a swing of about $338 million from a current loss position. That forecast yields an estimated fair value of $80.77 per share, about 46% above where the stock trades today. ^[18]

That said, Simply Wall St also warns about customer concentration risk, particularly given MP’s huge long‑term contracts with Apple and General Motors. ^[19]

2. MarketBeat: New Hedge Fund Stakes From Entropy Technologies and AXQ Capital

Two separate MarketBeat instant alerts” released today highlight fresh institutional buying in MP: ^[20]

• Entropy Technologies LP
  • Initiated a new position of 39,547 shares, valued at about $1.32 million in Q2.
  • MarketBeat notes that, despite insider selling (more on that in a moment), institutional ownership overall remains strong, with roughly half the float in institutional hands. ^[21]
• AXQ Capital LP
  • Disclosed a new 20,860‑share stake, worth roughly $694,000, also initiated in Q2. ^[22]
  • The article also lists a string of other asset managers that have been increasing their MP positions, suggesting that professional money is still interested in the story despite heightened volatility. ^[23]

These are not enormous positions relative to MP’s nearly $10 billion market cap, but they add to a picture of steady hedge fund participation in the name.

3. Fresh Thematic Coverage: Middle East Strategy and Tech Dominance” Angle

New analysis pieces today broaden the narrative around MP’s Saudi deal:

• SMM (Shanghai Metals Market) explains that under the JV, Ma’aden will hold at least 51%, while MP and the U.S. Department of Defense jointly own 49%, with the Pentagon providing non‑recourse funding. ^[24]
• A StrategicMetalsInvest weekly review covering October 17–November 23 notes that Saudi Arabia views rare earths, lithium and other critical minerals (estimated at $2.5 trillion of in‑ground value) as a pillar of its economic diversification, and that MP’s JV is part of a broader U.S.–Saudi critical minerals axis.
• A new blog post by Ian Khan today casts MP Materials as a key challenger to China’s tech dominance, emphasizing the role of rare earth magnets in AI hardware, EVs and defense systems – and positioning MP’s government‑backed capacity as a strategic response. ^[25]

For investors, these pieces reinforce that MP is not just another mining stock; it’s at the center of a multi‑country industrial policy effort stretching from Washington to Riyadh and beyond.

4. Technical Picture: Oversold but Still a Strong Sell” on Screens

Investing.com’s technical summary for MP as of early November 23 shows: ^[26]

• RSI (14‑day): ~38.7 – in the lower band, flirting with oversold.
• Most short‑term indicators (MACD, Stochastics, CCI, ROC, etc.) are flashing Sell, yielding an overall Strong Sell” technical rating.
• Volatility (ATR) has eased somewhat compared with the wild swings earlier this year, but remains elevated relative to more mature industrial names.

In simple terms, the chart still looks bruised after the October–November rollercoaster, even as the fundamental story has arguably improved.

The Saudi Rare Earth JV: Why It Matters So Much

On November 19, Reuters reported that MP Materials will build a rare earth refinery in Saudi Arabia in partnership with the U.S. Department of Defense (Department of War) and state‑owned Ma’aden. ^[27]

Key deal terms and implications:

• Ownership split:
  • MP + U.S. Department of Defense (via a joint venture): 49%
  • Ma’aden: 51% and operating control. ^[28]
• Strategic purpose:
  • Expand Middle Eastern processing of critical rare earths, reducing reliance on Chinese refiners which currently dominate global supply. ^[29]
  • Help solve a growing shortage of heavy rare earths like dysprosium and terbium, crucial for high‑temperature magnets used in EV motors, jets and military hardware. ^[30]
• Market reaction:
  • Reuters noted MP shares jumped around 10% intraday when the deal was announced. ^[31]
  • Simply Wall St’s follow‑up today emphasises that the stock is now down about 5.7% since, highlighting how quickly enthusiasm can fade in a high‑beta name like MP. ^[32]

From an investment perspective, the Saudi JV does three important things:

1. Addresses the heavy rare earth bottleneck
   Reuters and other outlets point out that the West’s efforts to build magnet supply chains are running into a simple problem: there just isn’t enough heavy rare earth supply outside China yet. ^[33]
   The Saudi refinery is designed to process both Saudi and international feedstock into both light and heavy rare earth oxides, giving MP a new path to dysprosium and terbium at scale. ^[34]
2. Extends MP’s footprint beyond the U.S., with government backing on both ends
   By pairing U.S. government capital with Ma’aden’s resources, MP inserts itself into Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 plan to diversify away from oil. That makes MP not just a U.S. national security asset, but also a partner in Middle Eastern industrial transformation. ^[35]
3. Reinforces MP’s strategic first, profits later” narrative
   The project appears to carry limited financial risk for MP according to analysts quoted by Reuters, given the Pentagon’s price support and Saudi capital. ^[36]
   That fits with management’s message: short‑term earnings will be bumpy, but the long‑term prize is a vertically integrated, government‑backed magnet empire.

Q3 2025: Revenue Down, Strategic Metrics Way Up

MP’s Q3 2025 results, released on November 6, are crucial to understanding the current setup. ^[37]

Headline numbers from the company’s filing:

• Total revenue:$53.6 million, down 15% year‑on‑year from $62.9 million.
• Net loss:$41.8 million, wider than the $25.5 million loss a year ago.
• Adjusted EBITDA:‑$12.6 million, slightly worse than the prior year’s ‑$11.2 million.
• Adjusted diluted EPS:‑$0.10, an improvement from ‑$0.12, and better than Wall Street’s expectation of a larger loss. ^[38]

At first glance, that looks like a deterioration. But the details tell a different story:

• MP has stopped selling rare earth concentrate to China entirely, in line with its Department of War agreement. In Q3 2024, concentrate sales to China brought in roughly $43 million; in Q3 2025 that number dropped to zero, explaining much of the revenue decline. ^[39]
• To offset that, MP generated $21.9 million in revenue from magnetic precursor products, a line of business that produced no revenue a year earlier, and boosted NdPr oxide and metal sales by about $11.7 million thanks to higher production and better pricing. ^[40]
• Operationally, MP delivered record NdPr production of 721 metric tons, up roughly 51% year‑over‑year and above guidance, while rare‑earth oxide (REO) production was 13,254 tons, the second‑highest in company history. ^[41]

In other words, the quarter confirms that MP is sacrificing low‑margin concentrate sales to China in order to ramp value‑added, government‑backed products (NdPr oxide, metals and magnets) that should support much stronger profitability once the various facilities are fully online.

Management and several analysts now expect MP to swing back toward profitability starting in Q4 2025, helped by the Pentagon’s price floor on NdPr (more on that below). ^[42]

The Government and Apple Deals: An Unusual Safety Net

One reason MP trades so differently from traditional miners is its unprecedented public‑private partnership with the U.S. government and Apple.

Pentagon / Department of War Partnership

In July, MP announced a $400 million investment from the Department of Defense, structured as convertible preferred stock plus warrants that position the U.S. government as MP’s largest shareholder with an effective stake around 15%. ^[43]

Key features:

• The Pentagon is funding a massive 10X” magnet manufacturing facility in the U.S. with a 10‑year take‑or‑pay offtake agreement for all magnet output. ^[44]
• The deal includes a price floor of roughly $110/kg for NdPr oxide – nearly double the current market price around $60/kg – effectively guaranteeing profitability on MP’s oxide production regardless of Chinese price moves. ^[45]
• Analysts estimate that once fully ramped, these contracts could underpin at least $650 million in annual earnings, with about $400 million coming from the oxide price floor and around $140 million from the magnet facility alone. ^[46]

Apple’s $500 Million Magnet and Recycling Deal

At the same time, MP has a $500 million agreement with Apple to produce magnets from recycled rare earths for iPhones and to expand MP’s Texas magnet facility. Production is expected to scale from 2027 onward. ^[47]

Together, these deals:

• Transform MP from a pure commodity miner into a contracted cash‑flow business with multi‑year visibility.
• Deepen MP’s dependence on a small number of giant customers (the U.S. government, Apple, General Motors), which is great for stability but raises concentration risk if any relationship changes. ^[48]

Ownership: Gina Rinehart, Uncle Sam, Hedge Funds… and Insider Selling

Gina Rinehart Becomes the Top Investor

According to Barchart’s November 20 analysis, Australian mining billionaire Gina Rinehart has boosted her stake in MP to about 8.4%, overtaking CEO James Litinsky’s 7.9% position and becoming the company’s largest private shareholder. ^[49]

• She reportedly added another million shares through Hancock Prospecting, making MP the crown jewel” of her roughly $3 billion U.S. portfolio, with a position worth close to $1 billion at the end of Q3. ^[50]
• Barchart highlights that Rinehart’s investment is a notable bet on the U.S. defense supply chain, given MP operates the only major rare earth mine in the United States. ^[51]

For many investors, following the billionaire money” is a signal of long‑term conviction in the strategic value of MP’s assets and government backing.

U.S. Government as Largest Shareholder

As noted above, the Pentagon’s July investment and warrant package makes the U.S. government MP’s single largest shareholder, with an effective stake of around 15% and billions in committed funding for new magnet capacity. ^[52]

This is highly unusual in U.S. equity markets and has sparked debate about the government picking winners” by taking stakes in companies like Intel, MP Materials, Lithium Americas and Trilogy Metals. ^[53]

Institutional Investors and Today’s Hedge Fund Flows

Institutional ownership remains robust:

• MarketBeat and other data providers report that over 50% of MP’s shares are held by institutions, ranging from Envestnet to Allianz Asset Management. ^[54]
• Today’s Entropy and AXQ filings are incremental but reinforce the sense that professional investors continue to accumulate the stock, even after its huge run. ^[55]

Insider Selling: A Key Counterpoint

Against that bullish backdrop, MarketBeat’s Entropy piece calls out significant insider selling over the past quarter: ^[56]

• CFO Ryan Corbett sold 20,000 shares, worth about $1.15 million.
• CEO James Litinsky sold roughly 248,411 shares, worth about $15.86 million.
• In total, insiders sold around 418,411 shares for approximately $27.82 million in proceeds.

Insiders sell for many reasons (taxes, diversification, liquidity), but the scale of recent sales is something investors will weigh against the billion‑dollar votes of confidence from the Pentagon, Apple and Gina Rinehart.

What Wall Street and Models Are Saying About MP Stock

Analyst Ratings and Price Targets

Several aggregators show a broadly bullish Wall Street stance:

• MarketBeat’s latest data:
  • 15 analysts with an average 12‑month target of $78.82.
  • High target $112, low $69.
  • Implied upside of roughly 40–45% from the current mid‑$50s share price. ^[57]
• Barchart notes that among 14 analysts, 10 rate MP as Strong Buy”, one as Moderate Buy” and three as Hold”, with an average target around $81.58 vs a recent trading price in the high‑$50s. ^[58]

In short, the Street still sees MP as undervalued relative to its government‑backed growth profile, despite the big 2025 rally.

Independent Valuation Models

• As covered earlier, Simply Wall St’s fair‑value estimate sits around $80.77, assuming very aggressive revenue growth (over 60% per year) and a dramatic swing into profitability by 2028. ^[59]
• Other forecasting sites and blogs (including TIKR and various price‑target tools) typically cluster in the mid‑$70s to low‑$80s as a reasonable 12‑month fair value band, implying meaningful but not outrageous upside if execution goes well. ^[60]

The biggest question isn’t whether MP is cheap” or expensive” on near‑term earnings (they’re still negative), but whether the market has fully appreciated:

• The lock‑in value of the Pentagon’s price floor and magnet offtake contracts, and
• The optionality of Saudi heavy rare‑earth refining capacity layered on top of the U.S. assets.

Macro Context: The New Rare Earth Cold War”

Multiple recent pieces stress that MP’s story is inseparable from geopolitics:

• MarketBeat’s Rare Earth Stocks: The Truce That Isn’t a Truce” argues that a supposed U.S.–China trade truce” is in reality a repositioning of the conflict, with China crafting a validated end‑user (VEU) system that could selectively cut off defense‑related firms from rare earth supplies. ^[61]
• Reuters and The Straits Times report that Western efforts to ramp magnet production face a looming shortage of heavy rare earths, with MP and Lynas both scrambling to secure more ore, reinforcing the importance of projects like MP’s Saudi refinery and planned heavy REE separation in California. ^[62]
• GuruFocus and others note that MP has traded sharply around headlines on Chinese export controls – surging when China threatens restrictions, and then again when it pauses them under new agreements. ^[63]

Put together, these reports suggest that policy risk is a feature, not a bug, in MP’s investment case. The same geopolitical forces that make MP mission‑critical” also inject headline risk and volatility into the stock.

Risks to Watch

Even if you buy into MP’s strategic importance, there are non‑trivial risks:

1. Execution Risk
   • MP is simultaneously ramping a California refinery, a Texas magnet plant, a heavy REE separation circuit and now a Saudi refinery – all while rewiring its customer base away from China. Any delay or cost overrun could push out the path to sustained profitability. ^[64]
2. Customer Concentration
   • Apple, the U.S. government and GM represent huge slices of future revenue. If any of these giants reduces orders, renegotiates terms or faces their own political scrutiny, MP could feel outsized impact. ^[65]
3. Commodity and Policy Volatility
   • Despite the price floor and contracts, MP remains exposed to rare earth price swings, trade policy shifts and export control regimes. A change in U.S. political priorities or budget constraints could also affect the scale and length of government support. ^[66]
4. Valuation After a Huge Run
   • Even after the recent pullback, MP has rallied several hundred percent this year. Some analysts and commentators warn that expectations for earnings in the late 2020s may already be priced in, leaving less margin for error. ^[67]

Bottom Line on MP Materials Stock Today (November 23, 2025)

Putting it all together:

• Fundamentals: MP is sacrificing short‑term revenue to align with U.S. national security goals, ramping higher‑margin products and earning an unusually robust safety net from government and Big Tech contracts. Q3 confirmed that production and strategic milestones are on track, even as the income statement still shows red ink. ^[68]
• News today: The Saudi JV is drawing fresh scrutiny, with Simply Wall St highlighting a modest post‑announcement pullback while valuation models still see ~40–50% upside. New hedge fund buyers are stepping in via Entropy Technologies and AXQ Capital, while technical indicators show a stock that’s tired in the short term but still firmly in play for institutions and strategic investors. ^[69]
• Positioning: Between Gina Rinehart’s 8.4% stake, the Pentagon’s 15%‑ish interest, Apple’s $500 million commitment and the Saudi partnership, MP increasingly looks less like a conventional cyclical miner and more like a quasi‑infrastructure play on the future of magnets, EVs and defense – albeit with all the volatility of a high‑growth tech stock. ^[70]

For traders, MP remains a high‑beta, headline‑sensitive vehicle where technicals and news flow can dominate day‑to‑day moves. For long‑term investors, the question is whether you’re comfortable tying part of your portfolio to a company whose fortunes are deeply intertwined with U.S. industrial policy and shifting geopolitical alliances.

Important: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Always do your own research or consult a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions.

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