Published: November 11, 2025
Nebius Group (NASDAQ: NBIS) reports third‑quarter 2025 results before the U.S. market opens today (Tue., Nov. 11), with management hosting a conference call at 8:00 a.m. ET. Consensus heading into the print calls for revenue in roughly the $150–$156 million range and a per‑share loss of about $0.44–$0.56. Expectations are elevated after a year in which Nebius became one of the market’s most talked‑about AI infrastructure names. [1]
Key takeaways at a glance
- Timing & access: Results drop before the bell with a webcast at 8:00 a.m. ET / 2:00 p.m. CET available via the company’s investor hub. [2]
- Street setup: Recent previews peg Q3 revenue near $150–$156M and EPS around –$0.44 to –$0.56; Zacks’ model does not signal a beat (Zacks Rank #4 / Sell). [3]
- Why it matters: Nebius shares have rallied ~468% over the past 12 months (some outlets frame it as “nearly 500%”), making guidance and profitability paths pivotal. [4]
- Macro thesis: A five‑year, $17.4B AI‑compute supply agreement with Microsoft—expandable to $19.4B—and the new Nebius Token Factory platform are driving the long‑term growth story. [5]
What Wall Street expects from Q3
- Revenue: Estimates cluster around $150.6M–$155.7M, implying triple‑digit year‑over‑year growth as AI inference workloads scale. [6]
- EPS: Forecast range of –$0.44 to –$0.56 per share as Nebius invests heavily to secure capacity and ramp enterprise customers. [7]
- Beat odds: Zacks notes an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell)—a combo that “does not conclusively predict” a beat this time. [8]
Listen live: Nebius’ Q3 2025 webcast is scheduled for 8:00 a.m. ET; details and the replay link are posted on the company’s investor hub. [9]
The story behind the numbers
1) The Microsoft catalyst
In September, Nebius unveiled a $17.4 billion, five‑year agreement to supply dedicated GPU infrastructure to Microsoft from a new Vineland, New Jersey data center—an arrangement that can scale to $19.4B depending on demand. The deal put Nebius on the AI infrastructure map alongside other hyperscaler partners and has been a key driver of the stock’s re‑rating. [10]
2) Product momentum: “Token Factory”
Just days ago, Nebius launched Token Factory, an enterprise platform to deploy and manage open‑source and custom models for production‑grade inference with autoscaling and a 99.9% SLA. Early user anecdotes (Prosus, Higgsfield) emphasize throughput and cost efficiency—context investors will listen for as the company frames 2026 demand. [11]
3) Capacity, capex, and the path to scale
Zacks highlights that Nebius guided 2025 capex at ~$2B and recently raised ~$4.2B (convertible notes + equity) to fund data‑center buildouts—capital intensity that supports growth but heightens execution risk if pricing or utilization soften. Management previously pointed to a $900M–$1.1B ARR/run‑rate framework and has discussed securing >1 GW of power by end‑2026. Watch for updates on utilization, delivery timelines and any changes to capex pacing. [12]
How the stock has performed—and what valuation says now
- Performance: Over the last 52 weeks, shares are up ~468%; several preview notes describe a “nearly 500%” surge year‑over‑year. After a torrid run, the stock pulled back ~14% over the past month, a reminder that sentiment is volatile into catalysts. [13]
- Valuation lens: Simply Wall St’s fair‑value model pegs NBIS at $156.4 (i.e., undervalued on that framework), but it also flags a P/E near 147× versus an industry average around 33×, underscoring that big growth is already priced in and leaving little room for execution missteps. [14]
- Targets diverge: Depending on the source, 12‑month targets range from ~$91 on the conservative end to ~$156–$161 among bullish tallies, reflecting the high‑variance debate around capacity ramps, contract visibility and margins. [15]
Five things to watch on today’s call
- Microsoft contract ramp: Timing of Vineland capacity, 2026 delivery cadence, and any color on additional multi‑year hyperscaler deals. [16]
- Gross margins & GPU utilization: How mix shifts from training to inference (and Token Factory uptake) affect unit economics. [17]
- Capex & liquidity runway: Updated 2025–2026 spend and the balance between convertibles, equity, and operating cash as scale builds. [18]
- Run‑rate outlook: Whether management reaffirms or updates the $900M–$1.1B annualized revenue trajectory. [19]
- Competitive landscape: Commentary on pricing and demand vs. hyperscaler clouds and specialized peers (e.g., CoreWeave). [20]
Fresh headlines tied to today (Nov. 11)
- Institutional flows: A MarketBeat 13F roundup published today notes Rathbones Group PLC bought 18,927 shares in Q2, joining other funds adding exposure to NBIS. (As always, 13F snapshots lag by a quarter; still, the disclosure underscores rising institutional interest.) [21]
- New coverage buzz: Traders circulated reports that CICC initiated Nebius at “Outperform” with a $143 target ahead of the print; The Fly (via TipRanks) also surfaced the initiation. [22]
The bottom line
Nebius enters Q3 reporting day with sky‑high expectations built on a landmark Microsoft agreement and rapid product iteration (Token Factory). The print‑plus‑guide will likely determine whether a year‑long ~5x rally can extend—or cool—into year‑end. Focus on capacity ramps, margin trajectory, and contract visibility. If management shows progress on utilization and disciplined capex while sustaining growth, bulls will argue the multiple remains defendable. If not, richly valued AI infrastructure names can and do re‑price quickly. [23]
Editor’s note for publishers
At press time, Nebius had not yet released its Q3 figures. The sections above reflect pre‑release consensus and company disclosures as of Nov. 11, 2025. Replace the expectation ranges with actuals once the press release posts and add any guidance updates from the call. [24]
Sources: company investor hub & Business Wire scheduling; consensus previews from Zacks/Nasdaq, TradingView/GuruFocus relay and Benzinga; background reporting from Reuters and IBD; valuation snapshot from Simply Wall St; institutional holdings note from MarketBeat; initiation items via The Fly/TipRanks and Stocktwits news relay. [25]
Disclosure: This article is for information only and is not investment advice.
References
1. nebius.com, 2. nebius.com, 3. www.nasdaq.com, 4. www.benzinga.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.nasdaq.com, 7. www.benzinga.com, 8. www.nasdaq.com, 9. nebius.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.businesswire.com, 12. www.nasdaq.com, 13. www.benzinga.com, 14. simplywall.st, 15. www.marketbeat.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.businesswire.com, 18. www.nasdaq.com, 19. www.nasdaq.com, 20. www.nasdaq.com, 21. www.marketbeat.com, 22. stocktwits.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. nebius.com, 25. nebius.com
