Netflix (NFLX) Stock Outlook Before the December 1, 2025 Open: Post‑Split Price, Warner Bros. Bid Jitters, and Fresh Analyst Targets

As Wall Street gets ready to open on Monday, December 1, 2025, Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) heads into the new week in a delicate balance: fundamentally strong, freshly split, and still highly debated.

After its 10‑for‑1 stock split on November 17, Netflix closed Friday, November 28 around $107.6 per share, roughly 20% below its 52‑week high near $134 but still about 20–21% higher than a year ago. TS2 Tech+1 That places the stock in classic “post‑rally consolidation” territory going into Monday’s session.

At the same time, the last three days — November 28–30, 2025 — have brought a flurry of new ratings, price targets, options strategies, and macro takes on Netflix that traders will be digesting before the bell. Here’s what’s changed, and what it could mean for NFLX as trading resumes.

1. Where Netflix Stock Stands Heading Into December 1

Post‑split price and recent performance

• Last close (Nov. 28): Around $107.58 per share, according to options‑focused analysis from Barchart. ^[1]
• Saturday pricing recap: A separate weekend wrap placed the stock “around $107.6,” with an intraday range near $106.24–$107.94 and a 52‑week range of $82.11–$134.12 as of November 29. TS2 Tech
• Trend: Roughly 20% off the 52‑week high, yet up around 20–21% year‑over‑year, suggesting investors have cooled slightly after a strong run but have not abandoned the name. TS2 Tech

Short‑term technical models are cautious. A CoinCodex forecast updated on November 30 expects Netflix to trade between about $103.96 and $107.57 in December, with an end‑of‑month target near $105.78, about 1.7% below current levels. Their indicators flag “bearish” sentiment, a Fear & Greed Index reading of 39 (Fear) and extremely high volatility (~57% annualised). ^[2]

The 10‑for‑1 stock split: making NFLX “smaller” but louder

Netflix’s 10‑for‑1 split became effective on November 17, dropping the share price from above $1,100 to just over $100, without changing the company’s market value. ^[3]

Over the last three days, multiple pieces have focused on what that split means:

• QuiverQuant notes that chatter on X (formerly Twitter) is now dominated by the split, with many retail investors praising the new affordability and the strong year the stock has had. ^[4]
• A Motley Fool / Nasdaq analysis argues that even after the split, Netflix is still “firing on all cylinders,” highlighting 16% YoY revenue growth in Q2 2025 and 17% in Q3 as paid memberships, pricing and a growing ad business all pushed revenues higher. ^[5]

For options traders, Barchart stresses that the split dramatically lowered the capital required to write put options. With shares at $107.58 on Friday, the article frames shorting out‑of‑the‑money (OTM) puts as an attractive income strategy for bullish investors who are comfortable potentially buying NFLX at lower strike prices. ^[6]

For Monday’s open, that mix of newly accessible share price and cheaper options contracts is likely to keep retail interest high — both on the long side and among income‑oriented traders.

2. The Big Netflix Headlines From November 28–30, 2025

2.1. Wall Street doubles down on “Buy” — but with wide disagreement on value

Over the November 28–30 window, several new and updated analyst and model‑driven forecasts hit the tape:

• Consensus rating: “Moderate Buy.”
  • MarketBeat’s latest update on November 30 reports that Netflix holds a consensus recommendation of “Moderate Buy” from covering brokerages. ^[7]
  • Their associated forecast page shows an average 12‑month price target of about $133.90, with estimates ranging from $72 to $160. At a recent price around $107–108, that implies roughly 24–25% upside. ^[8]
• Rosenblatt’s new target: $152.
  • A fresh note summarised by Financial Modeling Prep on November 29 highlights Rosenblatt Securities analyst Barton Crockett setting a $152 price target, describing potential upside of about 41% from a $107.49 reference price. ^[9]
  • Investing.com also reports Rosenblatt trimming its target slightly from $153 to $152 while keeping a Buy rating, consistent with a broader consensus “Buy” score of 1.84 and a target range of $77–$160 across Wall Street. ^[10]
• Zacks: solid upside from a broad target range.
  • Zacks’ latest target compilation shows forecasts between $95 and $160, with an average implying about 28.5% upside from a recent closing price near $106.14. ^[11]
• Simply Wall St: fair value around $134.65.
  • A new DCF‑based piece from Simply Wall St pegs Netflix’s intrinsic value at about $134.65, roughly 25% above the current share price, and calls out “surging demand” in connection with the final Stranger Things season. ^[12]

One of the most interesting weekend write‑ups comes from TS2.tech, which pulls together several independent valuation models. According to their November 29 recap, fair‑value estimates now span a very wide band, from around $55–56 on a conservative value‑investing model, through $86.54 in another DCF, up to roughly $141 in a bullish scenario analysis. TS2 Tech

The takeaway: almost everyone agrees Netflix is a high‑quality franchise, but there is no consensus on what it’s worth, a theme that will likely keep volatility elevated into Monday’s session.

2.2. Technical warnings: “Undisputed streaming king, but rally looks vulnerable”

Not all fresh analysis is upbeat.

A new Seeking Alpha note published on November 30 calls Netflix the “undisputed streaming king”, citing strong structural growth, robust free cash flow and industry‑leading margins against rivals like Disney and Warner Bros. Discovery. But it also warns that the share price has slipped below key moving averages and that momentum indicators are pointing lower, with a technical pullback zone near $82.10 flagged as possible support. ^[13]

That dovetails with CoinCodex’s short‑term model, which tags sentiment as bearish and sees only flat‑to‑slightly‑negative price action into the end of December, even as volatility readings stay very high. ^[14]

Combined, these notes are likely to embolden short‑term traders who see room for a deeper correction even if they respect Netflix’s long‑term story.

2.3. Retail buzz, social media, and the stock split narrative

On the retail side, QuiverQuant’s November 30 “DiscussionTracker” highlights that X is still obsessed with the 10‑for‑1 split, with many users framing NFLX as “back within reach” for smaller accounts and commenting on how much the stock has risen over the past year. ^[15]

Meanwhile, a Motley Fool / Nasdaq article — also circulating heavily this weekend — leans bullish, pointing to:

• 16% YoY revenue growth in Q2 2025 and 17% in Q3, driven by higher paid memberships, price increases and the growing ad‑supported tier, and
• The argument that Netflix is still executing well enough to justify a premium multiple, even after the split. ^[16]

A separate long‑form piece from TIKR emphasises that Netflix stock has delivered more than 700% total returns over the last decade, and argues that the company still trades at an attractive earnings multiple given its scale, cultural relevance and nascent advertising business. ^[17]

These narratives feed into the idea that Netflix’s post‑split consolidation might be more of a pause than a peak — a key debate for Monday’s open.

2.4. Warner Bros. Discovery bid drama: Netflix as a potential buyer

One of the most market‑sensitive stories from this period actually isn’t about Netflix alone.

Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) has reportedly asked three suitors — Paramount Skydance, Netflix and Comcast — to come back with improved offers for major studio and streaming assets after an initial round of bids. The company has set a deadline of December 1 for better proposals, and early reporting suggests Paramount’s first offer valued WBD at around $23.50 per share for the assets in play. ^[18]

According to that same coverage:

• Warner Bros. Discovery’s shares have jumped about 87% since sale speculation began in September.
• Netflix’s stock ticked up about 1.5% after news of the refreshed bidding deadline, indicating investors see strategic upside but are also wary of regulatory and integration risks. ^[19]

For Monday’s open, traders will be watching closely for any pre‑market headlines on this process. A concrete move — even a firm statement that Netflix is not bidding aggressively — could move NFLX sharply given what’s at stake in terms of content library and competitive positioning.

2.5. Fundamental backdrop: strong growth, but higher scrutiny

This weekend’s commentary doesn’t exist in a vacuum; it sits on top of an eventful Q3 and a shifting streaming landscape.

Key context:

• Q3 2025 earnings:
  • Netflix reported Q3 revenue of about $11.51 billion, up roughly 17% year‑over‑year, but earnings missed expectations, leading to a 5%+ after‑hours drop when the results were first released in October. ^[20]
  • Reuters characterised the subsequent pullback as a “blockbuster run losing spark amid valuation jitters”, noting investors were worried about soft guidance given Netflix’s premium multiple. ^[21]
• Strategic pivot:
  • A November 17 analysis from MarketMinute describes Netflix in late 2025 as having moved beyond the pure subscriber‑chase phase, focusing more on profitability, diversified revenue streams, and higher average revenue per member. ^[22]
  • Netflix has stopped reporting quarterly subscriber figures but remains the streaming leader, with TheWrap estimating over 300 million global subscribers while still ranking it ahead of other major platforms. ^[23]
• Content and engagement:
  • Zacks recently highlighted Netflix’s December content slate, led by the fifth and final season of Stranger Things, as a key holiday‑season catalyst after the Q3 earnings miss. ^[24]
  • A widely shared Verge feature underscores this shift, arguing that as Stranger Things ends, Netflix is leaning away from a handful of tentpole series toward a broader mix of niche fandoms, supported by ad tiers, price hikes, live sports and even gaming. That story cites content chief Bela Bajaria, who said the platform now serves “somewhere north of 700 million” subscribers — a broader “viewers” number that goes well beyond the paid membership counts external outlets estimate. ^[25]

Together, the message from recent commentary is clear: the fundamental story is solid but no longer unquestioned, and every new content, ad‑tier and M&A move is being closely re‑priced by the market.

3. What the Latest Forecasts Say About Netflix Stock

Pulling together the November 28–30 analyses, the numbers break down roughly like this:

• Current price: ≈ $107–108 (post‑split, as of Nov. 28–29). TS2 Tech+1
• Short‑term model (Dec 2025):
  • CoinCodex: Target $105.78 by December 30 (‑1.66%), in a band of $103.96–$107.57, with bearish sentiment and high volatility. ^[26]
• 12‑month Wall Street targets:
  • MarketBeat average:$133.90 (≈ 24.6% upside), range $72–$160. ^[27]
  • Zacks compiled targets:$95–$160 range, average implying ≈28.5% upside from around $106.14. ^[28]
  • Rosenblatt:$152 price target (≈ 41% upside from ~107.5), reaffirmed Buy as of November 28–29. ^[29]
• Independent fair‑value estimates:
  • Simply Wall St DCF: ≈ $134.65 fair value (≈ 25% upside). ^[30]
  • TS2‑summarised models:
    • Conservative value‑investing model: mid‑$50s fair value.
    • Separate DCF: ≈$86.54, implying mild downside.
    • Bullish TIKR scenario: ≈$141, roughly 30% above current levels. TS2 Tech

On balance, the median outlook from these weekend updates points to meaningful upside over 12 months, but with huge dispersion and short‑term models that are far more cautious. That clash between long‑term optimism and short‑term wariness is precisely what makes Monday’s open so interesting.

4. Bull vs. Bear: Key Arguments Before Monday’s Open

Bull case going into December 1

From this weekend’s batch of articles and forecasts, the bullish arguments look like this:

• Still‑strong growth:
  • Revenue growth remains in the mid‑teens (16% in Q2 and 17% in Q3 2025), even at Netflix’s massive scale. ^[31]
• Leader in streaming:
  • Despite ceasing regular subscriber reporting, independent estimates still put Netflix at the top of global streaming with well over 300 million paying members, plus a much larger base of total viewers. ^[32]
• Ad‑tier and pricing leverage:
  • Netflix’s ad‑supported plans, password‑sharing crackdown and price increases have all helped raise revenue per member without obvious mass churn so far, according to multiple analyses. ^[33]
• Content and engagement pipeline:
  • The final season of Stranger Things, live sports (including NFL Christmas Day games) and a growing games portfolio give Netflix levers to drive engagement into the holiday period and beyond. ^[34]
• Valuation vs. growth:
  • Several models and analysts — from Rosenblatt (PT $152) to Simply Wall St ($134.65 DCF fair value) and TIKR’s bullish scenarios (~$141) — suggest 20–40% upside if Netflix continues executing. ^[35]
• Stock split tailwind:
  • The split has expanded the addressable retail and options trader base, which can support liquidity and sentiment. Social media activity highlighted by QuiverQuant backs up that renewed retail attention. ^[36]

Bear case and near‑term risks

The bearish or cautious side is equally vocal this weekend:

• Valuation jitters after Q3:
  • Reuters and XTB commentary point out that Netflix’s Q3 earnings miss and softer guidance triggered a meaningful pullback in October, raising questions about whether its premium valuation is fully justified. ^[37]
• Technical weakness:
  • Seeking Alpha’s November 30 piece argues that NFLX’s rally looks “vulnerable”, with shares now below key moving averages and a potential support zone around $82, some 20–25% lower than current prices. ^[38]
  • CoinCodex’s model labels sentiment bearish and sees no meaningful upside into year‑end, despite high volatility. ^[39]
• Huge valuation dispersion:
  • TS2’s overview of fair‑value models shows numbers as low as the mid‑$50s, meaning some value‑oriented frameworks see Netflix as significantly overvalued even after the pullback. TS2 Tech
• Competitive and regulatory risk:
  • Any aggressive bid for Warner Bros. Discovery assets could invite regulatory scrutiny, integration risk and higher leverage, particularly if Netflix were to go head‑to‑head with other bidders such as Paramount Skydance and Comcast. ^[40]
• Content cost and execution:
  • To justify its valuation, Netflix must keep delivering hit content, profitable live sports deals, and successful ad monetisation in an increasingly crowded streaming market — a tall order, especially as audience tastes fragment. ^[41]

For Monday’s open, this tug‑of‑war between growth believers and valuation‑sensitive skeptics will likely drive how NFLX trades, especially if any new M&A or content headlines drop before the bell.

5. What to Watch Before and After the December 1 Bell

Here are the key catalysts and signals investors and traders may focus on around the open:

1. Any pre‑market updates on Warner Bros. Discovery
   • A new headline confirming bids, pull‑outs or regulatory pushback could quickly move NFLX given the December 1 soft deadline for revised offers. ^[42]
2. Options flow and put‑selling activity
   • With the stock split now embedded and Barchart spotlighting OTM put‑selling strategies, watching short‑dated options flow could give hints about how sophisticated traders are positioning. ^[43]
3. Re‑rating chatter and fresh analyst notes
   • After Rosenblatt’s updated $152 target and MarketBeat’s “Moderate Buy” consensus, any new upgrades/downgrades or PT revisions could sway sentiment. ^[44]
4. Early data points on Stranger Things S5 and holiday engagement
   • Even small third‑party data points on viewing time, app downloads or sign‑ups tied to Stranger Things 5 could feed into short‑term demand narratives. ^[45]
5. Broader tech and risk sentiment
   • November was a tough month for many tech names, with MarketWatch highlighting widespread declines in the sector, even as some stocks still ended in positive territory. ^[46]
   • If investors stay cautious on high‑multiple growth names, even strong Netflix‑specific news may face a headwind.

6. Bottom Line: A Stock Caught Between Momentum and Fundamentals

Heading into the December 1, 2025 open, Netflix sits at an intriguing crossroads:

• Price: Around $107–108, materially below its highs yet well above 2024 levels. TS2 Tech+1
• Narrative: A profitable streaming leader in the midst of a strategic shift toward ads, live events and diversified content, with a massive global audience and an iconic title — Stranger Things — just starting its farewell run. ^[47]
• Consensus: Wall Street broadly leans “Buy” with 20–40% projected upside, but independent models and technical indicators warn that downside to the low‑$80s or below cannot be ruled out. ^[48]

For investors, the decision before Monday’s bell is less about whether Netflix is a good business — almost every analysis this weekend agrees that it is — and more about how much you’re willing to pay for that quality in a choppy, rate‑sensitive market.

As always, any decision to buy, hold or sell should factor in your own risk tolerance, time horizon, and portfolio diversification. The information above is not financial advice, but a synthesis of the most recent news, forecasts and analyses available from November 28–30, 2025 to help you navigate NFLX’s next move.

References

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