Netflix Stock Skyrockets: Will Its Ambitious Deals and Plans Drive It Even Higher?

Stock Surge: Netflix’s shares have surged roughly +70% over the past year ^[1], trading near $1,206 with a market cap around $513 billion ^[2]. Wall Street remains upbeat: about 25 of 36 analysts rate NFLX a Buy (consensus “Moderate Buy”), with an average price target near $1,329 ^[3].
M&A Buzz: Analysts are abuzz about Netflix potentially acquiring Warner Bros. Discovery’s (WBD) studio/streaming arm. Wells Fargo calls Netflix the “most compelling” bidder – saying it could gain WBD’s $12 billion content budget, $6.5 b library and a 100-acre studio lot – which they estimate could boost Netflix’s EPS by ~18% and even push it toward a $1 trillion market cap ^[4]. Bernstein’s Laurent Yoon is skeptical, however: he notes the media industry has seen many “head-scratching deals” (AT&T/Warner, Comcast/Sky, etc.) and doubts a WBD buy would deliver material long-term benefit ^[5] ^[6].
Partnerships & Advertising: Netflix is broadening its business beyond streaming. In September 2025 it struck a global co-marketing deal with brewer AB InBev (Budweiser, Stella, Corona, etc.) ^[7]. This unprecedented partnership will tie Netflix’s most-watched shows (e.g. UK’s The Gentlemen, S. Korea’s Culinary Class Wars) to AB InBev beer campaigns, limited-edition packaging and live events ^[8] ^[9]. For instance, AB InBev will advertise during Netflix’s NFL Christmas Day broadcast and co-sponsor big events like Netflix’s coverage of the 2027 Women’s World Cup ^[10]. (Netflix’s ad-supported tier now reaches ~94 million users worldwide, about two years after launch ^[11].)
New Ventures (Gaming & Experiences): Netflix is doubling down on interactive content. Co-CEO Greg Peters recently confirmed Netflix will “ramp up” its gaming investment ^[12]. After early tie-ins and experimental mobile titles, Netflix is reorganizing its games strategy into four pillars (party games, kids games, narrative games, and mainstream/licensed titles) ^[13]. Peters said Netflix has seen “good progress” with licensed hits (like bringing Grand Theft Auto to Netflix) and original games (like Squid Game: Unleashed), and promises “you’ll see more from us” in the year ahead ^[14]. Even so, Netflix admits games usage is currently tiny (studies found <1% of subs played Netflix games in 2023 ^[15]) and its gaming spend “remains quite small” relative to TV content ^[16], though the company is “convicted” about the opportunity ahead ^[17]. Likewise, Netflix is expanding into physical entertainment: it announced two 100,000+ sq.ft. “Netflix House” venues opening late 2025 in Philadelphia and Dallas, with VR games, mini-golf, restaurants and merchandise themed on hits like Wednesday, Squid Game and Stranger Things ^[18] (a third location is planned for Las Vegas in 2027).
Analyst Targets & Competition: Most Wall Street price targets for NFLX remain lofty. Bernstein and Evercore both maintain Outperform ratings with targets around $1,375–$1,390 ^[19]. However, Goldman Sachs has trimmed its view; in late September it cut Netflix’s price target to $1,300, citing intensifying competition in streaming ^[20]. (For context, Netflix’s forward P/E is near 50×, reflecting high expectations.) Overall the consensus price target across analysts is near $1,329 ^[21], implying 10–20% upside from current levels.
Regulatory & Licensing: Netflix has also faced new challenges. Turkey’s media regulator recently fined several streaming services – Netflix among them – for airing films deemed to “violate national and moral values.” The Turkish regulator ordered Netflix to pull five movies (citing content that “ignore[s] family values”) from its Turkey catalog ^[22] ^[23]. In addition, Netflix is navigating complex studio licensing relationships: it relies on third-party catalogs from studios like Paramount and WBD, and shifting alliances or deals in Hollywood can affect its content costs. (Analysts note that Netflix has started offering more of its own shows globally to offset such licensing risks.)

Stock Performance and Analyst Outlook

Netflix stock is near all-time highs, having climbed sharply this year on strong earnings and subscriber growth. As of late September 2025 the stock trades around $1,206, giving Netflix a market cap of about $513 billion ^[24]. The company blew past its Q2 2025 forecasts: EPS of $7.19 beat the $7.07 consensus, and revenue of $11.08 b (+15.9% YoY) topped forecasts ^[25]. Netflix also reaffirmed its full-year guidance (analysts expect ~$24.6 EPS for 2025) ^[26]. Wall Street’s verdict remains broadly positive: 23 analysts have Buy or better ratings versus 10 Holds and only 3 Sells ^[27]. MarketBeat summarizes the consensus as “Moderate Buy” with an average target around $1,328 ^[28]. Some firms are extremely optimistic – Wedbush (Outperform) lifted its target to $1,500 back in July – while others are more cautious. For example, Bernstein’s Laurent Yoon reiterated an Outperform with a $1,390 target ^[29], and Evercore maintains a $1,375 price target ^[30]. In contrast, Goldman Sachs cut its target to $1,300 on concerns about growing streaming competition ^[31].

Warner Bros Discovery Acquisition Talk

A major storyline is Netflix’s interest in acquiring Warner Bros. Discovery’s entertainment assets. Wells Fargo analysts argue that after WBD spins off its TV network business (targeted for 2026), Netflix could be the “most compelling” bidder for the remaining film/streaming unit ^[32]. Wells Fargo values WBD’s content library at ~$65 billion and suggests Netflix would gain massive IP (DC Comics, HBO, Harry Potter, etc.), projecting an 18% boost to earnings by 2030 ^[33]. This “blue-sky” scenario could, in their view, even push Netflix toward a $1 trillion valuation ^[34]. However, Bernstein’s Laurent Yoon is skeptical. He notes that Netflix already grew its catalog extensively and that adding WBD content would likely only give a short-term bump in engagement, not sustainable growth ^[35]. Yoon cautions that simply buying more similar general-entertainment content may not drive value: “the industry is no stranger to head-scratching deals,” he said, pointing to past big media mergers that failed to boost engagement ^[36]. In sum, analysts agree Netflix can afford a deal (it sits on vast cash flows and even a perfect Piotroski score of 9 ^[37]), but opinions differ on whether buying WBD (or parts of it) makes strategic sense. Yoon concludes that while WBD has valuable IP, it is “not a compelling acquisition” for Netflix, whereas Wells Fargo’s “most compelling buyer” view highlights what could happen if Netflix does act aggressively ^[38] ^[39].

Partnerships and New Revenue Streams

Netflix is exploiting every avenue to grow. A prime example is its recent deal with Anheuser-Busch InBev. On Sept. 22, Netflix and AB InBev announced a global marketing partnership. ^[40] ^[41] Under this unprecedented multi-year pact, iconic beer brands (Budweiser, Stella, Corona) will be paired with Netflix’s most popular titles worldwide. Netflix shows will feature AB InBev promotions and limited-edition beer packaging (e.g. special Gentlemenor Culinary Class Wars cans), while AB InBev will advertise on Netflix’s live content (notably the NFL Christmas Day game) and co-sponsor events like Netflix’s coverage of the 2027 Women’s World Cup ^[42] ^[43]. AB InBev’s Global CMO Marcel Marcondes captured the spirit: “Streaming is a social and shared experience — it’s an occasion where beer and entertainment come together,” he said ^[44]. The deal reflects Netflix’s push into advertising: its ad-supported tier now reaches over 94 million users globally ^[45], and partnerships with brands like AB InBev could unlock new revenue.

Other partnerships include co-productions and content deals (for instance Netflix has returned to licensing some titles like from Paramount as part of content deals). Financial partners are also working with Netflix – for example, Evercore ISI recently reiterated its Outperform rating (with $1,375 PT) noting Netflix’s solid financials and content model ^[46]. On the flip side, analysts note Netflix still negotiates costly content licensing. Goldman’s recent downgrade reflects worries that Disney+, Max (HBO) and Amazon Prime Video may ramp spending, increasing competitive pressure ^[47].

Gaming and Immersive Plans

Beyond video, Netflix is expanding into interactive media. Management has signaled a much bigger push into gaming. In mid-2025 co-CEO Greg Peters repeatedly said Netflix will “ramp up” its gaming investment ^[48] ^[49]. After earlier experiments, Netflix reorganized its games strategy around four pillars: party games, kids games, narrative (story-driven) games, and “mainstream” licensed titles ^[50]. Peters noted Netflix’s first games (like Squid Game: Unleashed and a mobile version of Stranger Things) have had success, and even licensed the blockbuster Grand Theft Auto for Netflix. “We’ve seen good progress, as you know, with licensed games like GTA…with the games we developed like Squid Game: Unleashed…you’ll see more from us in both of those categories,” he said ^[51].

At the same time, Netflix plans caution: current gaming adoption is small (<1% of subs were playing Netflix games as of 2023 ^[52]) and gaming spend remains a “small” part of its budget ^[53]. Peters emphasized being “disciplined” – Netflix won’t overspend until it can prove games add clear value ^[54] ^[55]. However, he is optimistic about scale: the total gaming market is “very, very large,” so even a niche foothold could be lucrative ^[56] ^[57]. Importantly, Netflix is open to new monetization models for games (e.g. ads or add-on purchases) once the user base grows ^[58] ^[59].

Netflix is also broadening fan engagement offline. In June the company announced “Netflix House” physical venues – immersive entertainment centers modeled on its shows ^[60]. Two 100,000+ sq.ft. locations will debut late 2025 in Philadelphia’s King of Prussia Mall and Dallas’s Galleria, featuring VR experiences, Netflix Bites restaurants, themed mini-golf and a “TUDUM Theater” for fan events ^[61]. (A third is slated for Las Vegas in 2027.) These moves mirror Netflix’s success in live fan events (its TUDUM global fan festivals) and signal a strategy of turning popular IP into new business lines.

Competition, Regulation and Risks

Despite Netflix’s momentum, headwinds remain. The streaming field is more crowded than ever, which has prompted Goldman’s caution and other price-target trims ^[62]. Rivals like Disney+ and Paramount+ continue to bulk up their libraries, and content costs keep rising. Netflix itself raised subscription prices in early 2025 (e.g. U.S. prices jumped to $17.99 for ad-free Standard) to offset costs, so further price hikes could impact subscriber growth.

Netflix also faces regulatory scrutiny abroad. In Turkey, for example, the broadcast watchdog fined Netflix (and other streamers) for carrying films that reportedly “ignore family values” ^[63]. The regulators ordered Netflix to remove five specific movies from its Turkey catalog ^[64]. Such actions illustrate the cultural and political challenges streaming services can face in global markets. (Separately, industry reports note that Netflix’s reliance on licensed content means deals with studios like Paramount and WBD are material – any major shift in studio alliances could affect Netflix’s offerings.)

Finally, while current plans are aggressive, Netflix must execute them carefully. Experts point out that past big media moves (e.g. AT&T’s purchase of Warner) have often disappointed shareholders. As Bernstein’s Yoon warned, even a blockbuster deal or hit game won’t help if user engagement (about 60 minutes per user per day now) stays flat ^[65]. Still, Netflix’s leadership seems confident: management talks of “value for our members” and diversifying its entertainment ecosystem (ads, games, live sports) ^[66] ^[67].

In summary, Netflix stock is buoyed by strong recent growth and bold initiatives. Its massive content library, subscriber base, and cash flow give it flexibility to pursue new deals (WBD assets, AB InBev partnership, gaming, and more). Analysts cite both significant upside (with consensus targets around $1.3K–$1.4K ^[68] ^[69]) and the challenges of a maturing streaming market. The coming quarters – including Netflix’s next earnings on Oct 21, 2025 ^[70] – will reveal whether these plans translate into sustained growth, but for now Netflix remains a focal point of Wall Street’s streaming narrative.

Sources: Recent analyst reports and news on Netflix’s stock, partnerships, and strategic initiatives ^[71] ^[72] ^[73] ^[74] ^[75] ^[76] ^[77] ^[78] ^[79].