- Nordex boosts 2025 profit outlook: The German wind turbine manufacturer hiked its full-year EBITDA margin guidance to 7.5–8.5% (from 5.0–7.0%) after a stronger-than-expected third quarter [1] [2]. Management cites solid execution and expects additional gains and strong orders in Q4 [3].
- Shares surge to multi-year highs: Nordex’s stock jumped as much as 10–15% on the news, climbing to around €24–25 – its highest level since 2021 [4] [5]. The rally reverses a recent dip and extends a remarkable run in 2025, with shares now up nearly 100% year-to-date [6].
- Analysts raise forecasts: The upgraded margin outlook implies roughly 24% upside to consensus EBITDA for 2025, according to RBC Capital [7]. Citi’s Vivek Midha sees “significant upside” for this year’s earnings consensus and momentum carrying into 2026 [8].
- Mixed expert reactions:Jefferies reaffirmed its “Buy” rating after Nordex’s guidance hike [9], but others urge caution. Oddo BHF cut its recommendation to Neutral (PT €25) – seeing “little room left on the upside” after Nordex’s stellar run and warning of longer-term risks [10]. RBC likewise kept an Underperform with a €18.50 target despite the strong results [11].
- Wind industry context: Nordex has managed to grow profitably even as some larger rivals face challenges. The company’s order intake is soaring – Q3 new orders rose 26% year-on-year to 2.17 GW [12] – and it recently won a 50 MW project in Spain, offering “relief in the renewable energy segment” [13]. Analysts say Nordex’s margin gains “show solid execution and better cost control,” underpinning its outperformance of competitors in the wind sector [14] [15].
Strong Q3 Drives Upbeat Forecast
Nordex SE delivered a positive surprise in Q3 2025, nearly doubling its operating profit from a year earlier. Preliminary EBITDA for the quarter hit €136 million, yielding an 8.0% margin – up sharply from €72 million and a 4.3% margin in Q3 2024 [16]. Buoyed by this result, Nordex’s management announced an upward revision to its full-year EBITDA margin forecast on October 27. The company now projects a 7.5–8.5% EBITDA margin for 2025 (vs. 5.0–7.0% prior) [17], while leaving other guidance (e.g. revenue of €7.4–7.9 billion) unchanged [18]. Nordex credited strong operational execution across both its turbine projects and service segments, aided by a stable macro environment [19]. Executives struck an optimistic tone for the remainder of 2025, anticipating additional profit improvements and robust order inflows in Q4 [20] [21]. Full detailed results are due on November 4, but the early disclosure of higher margins clearly impressed the market.
Stock Soars as Investors Cheer
News of Nordex’s improved outlook sent its stock soaring in trading on October 28. In pre-market activity on Tradegate, Nordex shares spiked ~11% to €24.47 [22], erasing a two-week slide that had seen the stock hit its lowest levels in a month. By mid-morning, the rally accelerated – Nordex traded up about +14% around €25.30 [23], surpassing its mid-October peak (€24.56) to notch a new high not seen since 2021. This marks a stunning rebound for a stock that had briefly lost momentum: as of last week, Nordex had pulled back nearly 10% from its highs amid broader market jitters [24] [25]. Even so, the wind turbine maker’s shares had already doubled in 2025 (up ~97% YTD by late October) thanks to steady operational improvements [26]. The latest jump cements Nordex as one of the year’s top performers on Germany’s TecDAX index.
Market commentators noted that the positive surprise on margins provided a “positive impulse” just as Nordex’s order flow had been strong [27]. Indeed, Nordex has enjoyed surging demand for its turbines this year. In Q3 alone, it booked 2,170 MW of new orders (a 26% YoY increase) [28], bringing total order intake for the first nine months to 6.66 GW – well ahead of the 5.08 GW in the same period last year [29]. This commercial momentum, combined with better cost control, has sharply improved profitability. “The margin increase by Nordex demonstrates solid execution and improved cost control,” observed Citigroup analyst Vivek Midha [30]. Such execution stands out given challenges at some competitors; for example, turbine quality troubles at larger peers have weighed on the industry recently, whereas Nordex has managed to keep expanding margins and sales. “The positive development at Nordex is continuing as expected,” wrote German investment outlet Der Aktionär, predicting the stock will “outperform competitors in the wind industry” as Nordex capitalizes on its strengths [31].
Analysts See Forecasts Rising – but Split on Upside
Following Nordex’s guidance upgrade, analysts are racing to adjust their models. RBC Capital calculated that the new EBITDA margin range implies, at the midpoint, roughly 24% higher EBITDA than the current consensus forecast for 2025 [32]. In other words, market estimates will need to climb significantly to catch up with Nordex’s new targets – a bullish sign. “Not only is there considerable upside to this year’s consensus, but also looking to next year,” noted Citi’s Midha, pointing to Nordex’s strong margin trajectory into 2026 [33]. Nordex’s ability to turn booming orders into actual profits has impressed observers; as one trader remarked, “Nordex’s margin boost shows a solid implementation and better cost control” – an encouraging signal for sustained earnings growth [34].
However, despite the improved outlook, expert opinions on Nordex remain divided. On one hand, several firms have reiterated bullish stances. Investment bank Jefferies reportedly maintained its “Buy” rating, expressing confidence that Nordex’s turnaround still has room to run [35]. Likewise, Deutsche Bank has been positive on Nordex’s prospects (it kept a Buy rating earlier in the month amid strong order figures). On the other hand, some analysts counsel caution after the stock’s huge rally. Just days before the forecast hike, France’s Oddo BHF withdrew its long-standing buy recommendation for Nordex. Citing the stock’s “overall excellent run” this year, Oddo’s analysts see “only little upside left” in the near term [36]. Their price target of €25 is roughly around the latest peak, and they argue Nordex’s valuation is no longer cheap relative to historical averages [37]. A pause or breather for the stock is not too much to ask, they suggested, especially given longer-term business risks in the volatile wind turbine sector [38].
Similarly, RBC stuck to its cautious view. Analyst Colin Moody of RBC noted that Nordex’s Q3 earnings essentially met expectations (helped by strong profitability and cash flow) despite a clear revenue shortfall [39]. While acknowledging the improved outlook, RBC reiterated its “Underperform” rating and €18.50 target – far below Nordex’s current market price [40]. This underlines lingering concerns about the company’s longer-term margins and execution risks, in RBC’s view. It’s worth noting that Nordex’s sector has seen plenty of turbulence: larger rival Siemens Energy recently warned of major losses due to turbine problems, highlighting the challenges inherent in ramping up production while maintaining quality. Nordex so far appears to be avoiding such pitfalls, but some analysts prefer to be conservative after the stock’s big run-up. In fact, Santander Bank just downgraded Nordex to Neutral as well (even as it raised its price target), reflecting a more tempered outlook on valuation [41].
Outlook: Can Nordex Keep Up the Momentum?
Nordex’s management remains upbeat heading into the final stretch of 2025. The company is counting on a strong fourth quarter, traditionally a key period for turbine installations and deliveries. Executives forecast a year-end surge in orders and earnings as customers push to meet project deadlines [42] [43]. If Nordex hits its new margin goal (around 8% EBITDA margin), it would mark a dramatic improvement in profitability from recent years, validating its strategic efforts to cut costs and streamline operations. The firm’s order backlog – which stood at a hefty €14.3 billion mid-year [44] – provides confidence that revenues will continue to grow.
Industry-wide, policy trends also offer reasons for optimism. Government climate targets and initiatives like the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act are spurring investments in wind energy. Nordex has benefited from such tailwinds; for example, relief measures in the U.S. extended certain green energy incentives, giving Nordex’s stock “new momentum” earlier this year [45]. At the same time, the company must navigate persistent challenges – supply chain constraints, high commodity costs, and fierce competition – which have tripped up peers.
Investors will be watching Nordex’s November 4 report for full Q3 details and any clues about 2026 guidance. Will the margin gains prove sustainable? Can Nordex continue translating its order boom into profits without hiccups? Bulls argue that the company’s turnaround is real: “Nordex’s upward trend is continuing as expected,” and the firm is positioned to outperform rivals in the wind space [46]. Bears, however, caution that much of the good news is now priced in after the stock’s doubling this year. “We see more risks longer-term,” wrote Oddo’s team, advocating a neutral stance [47].
For now, the market’s verdict is clear – Nordex’s surprise profit upgrade has re-energized investor enthusiasm. The stock’s powerful rally this week underscores renewed confidence that Nordex can ride the clean energy boom while avoiding the mistakes that have plagued others. As one industry observer noted, even incremental good news can lift the sector: Nordex recently rose on winning a 50 MW Spanish wind farm order [48], showing that execution wins matter. With a beefed-up forecast in hand and momentum at its back, Nordex has given shareholders plenty of reason to cheer – and a compelling story to watch in the renewable energy market’s next chapter.
Sources: Nordex investor announcement [49] [50]; Der Aktionär [51] [52]; dpa-AFX via t-online [53] [54]; RBC Research via dpa [55]; Oddo BHF via finanzen.net [56]; TS2 News [57]; Finanznachrichten order data [58]; Citigroup analyst comment via dpa [59].
References
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