All figures current as of the U.S. market close on Friday, November 21, 2025. NVAX will next trade when markets reopen on Monday, November 24, 2025.
Quick snapshot for NVAX heading into November 24, 2025
- Last close: Novavax (NASDAQ: NVAX) closed at $6.47 on Friday, November 21, 2025, with about 4.0 million shares traded. [1]
- Volatile week: The stock snapped a seven‑day losing streak with Friday’s 4.0% gain but remains ~44% below its 52‑week high of $11.55, set on January 7. [2]
- Story drivers right now:
- Q3 2025 earnings: revenue beat but a larger‑than‑expected loss and profitability pushed back to 2028. [3]
- Intensifying activist pressure from Shah Capital, which is pushing for a potential sale and threatening a proxy fight. [4]
- Expanded Sanofi partnership, including full U.S. and EU marketing authorization transfers for Nuvaxovid and $225 million in milestones year‑to‑date. [5]
Novavax stock price today: where NVAX stands
Going into Monday, November 24, 2025, Novavax shares are coming off a choppy stretch.
- Last close: $6.47 (Friday, November 21)
- Daily move: +4.02% on the day, breaking a week‑long losing streak. [6]
- Recent range: Over the last 10 trading days, NVAX has drifted from the mid‑$7s down into the mid‑$6s; the stock closed at $7.44 on November 11 and $6.47 on November 21, a double‑digit percentage decline over that span. [7]
- 52‑week range: Roughly $5.01–$11.55, with the current price sitting about 44% below that 52‑week high. [8]
- Market cap: About $1.05 billion, down nearly 27% year‑over‑year, placing Novavax firmly in small‑cap territory. [9]
In other words, NVAX is trading like a classic high‑beta biotech: small‑cap, volatile, and highly sensitive to news about regulation, partnerships and activist investors.
Latest Novavax news investors need to know
1. Q3 2025 earnings: revenue beat, but losses widen and profitability delayed
On November 6, Novavax reported its third‑quarter 2025 results, and the numbers were mixed: revenue was better than Wall Street expected, but bottom‑line losses expanded and the company pushed its profitability goal back by a year. [10]
Key points from Q3 2025:
- Total revenue: $70 million, down from $85 million in Q3 2024 (‑18% year‑on‑year). [11]
- Revenue mix is changing fast:
- Nuvaxovid product sales where Novavax is commercial lead: effectively $0 in Q3 vs $38 million a year earlier.
- Revenue tied to Sanofi jumped to $48 million (license, milestones, royalties, and transition services).
- Additional contributions from partners like Takeda and others brought total licensing, royalties and other revenue to $57 million. [12]
- Earnings / loss:
- Cost structure & cash:
- Cost of sales fell sharply to $21 million vs $61 million a year ago, reflecting the transition away from running a large commercial manufacturing network.
- SG&A dropped to $32 million, less than half of the prior year’s $71 million, as Novavax dismantled much of its commercial infrastructure. [15]
- The company ended Q3 with $778 million in cash, equivalents and marketable securities, down from $938 million at the end of 2024 but still providing a notable cash runway. [16]
Guidance and long‑term framework:
- 2025 adjusted revenue guidance was raised to $1.04–$1.06 billion, up from $1.00–$1.05 billion previously, excluding Sanofi‑related royalties and sales. [17]
- 2026 adjusted revenue (again excluding Sanofi royalties/sales) is projected at $185–$205 million, much lower than 2025 because 2025 is heavily boosted by milestone payments. [18]
- Profitability target has been moved back one year, from 2027 to 2028, as management leans more on a “transition year” in 2025‑2026 while Sanofi ramps commercial efforts. [19]
For investors, Q3 solidified the narrative: Novavax can beat revenue expectations thanks to partner payments, but it is still burning cash and is several years away from its own goal of sustainable profitability.
2. Shah Capital turns up the heat: activist pressure and talk of a sale
On November 13, Reuters reported that Shah Capital, Novavax’s second‑largest shareholder, escalated its activist campaign. The hedge fund has raised its stake to about 8.3% and is now openly urging the board to explore a sale of the company, warning of a potential proxy fight if it doesn’t see progress within about four months. [20]
Highlights from the Shah Capital push:
- The fund says it is “increasingly disenchanted” with Novavax’s weak COVID‑19 vaccine sales and negligible market share.
- According to Shah’s letter, Novavax sold about 120,000 doses of its COVID‑19 vaccine in the 2025‑26 season through October 31, compared with 14.5 million doses for two rivals — translating to roughly 0.8% market share. [21]
- Shah Capital suggests Novavax suffers from a disconnect between promising science and poor commercial execution and has floated Sanofi, Merck, GSK and AstraZeneca as potential buyers (no formal approaches have been reported). [22]
- The fund values Novavax at $5–$10 billion, far above the current market cap around $1–1.2 billion. [23]
Novavax’s board has responded by reiterating support for its current strategy while saying it remains open to “other credible pathways” to maximize shareholder value. [24]
For NVAX stock, this activism is a double‑edged sword:
- It raises the odds of some kind of strategic move (a sale, asset deal, or deeper partnership).
- It also underscores market skepticism about the company’s ability to hit its 2028 profitability goal without major changes.
3. Sanofi partnership: milestones now, royalties later
The Sanofi deal remains the central pillar of Novavax’s investment story in late 2025.
Key developments:
- On November 4, Novavax completed the U.S. marketing authorization transfer for Nuvaxovid (its COVID‑19 vaccine) to Sanofi, triggering a $25 million milestone payment. The company had already completed the EU transfer in October. [25]
- In total, Novavax has booked $225 million in non‑dilutive capital from Sanofi in 2025 alone, including a $175 million milestone tied to full FDA Biologics License Application (BLA) approval earlier in the year. [26]
- Sanofi handled the 2025‑2026 COVID‑19 season commercialization of Nuvaxovid in key markets, with Novavax now positioned primarily as a royalty and technology partner rather than a commercial front‑end. [27]
On the pipeline side:
- Sanofi reported positive Phase 1/2 data for a combined COVID‑19 + influenza vaccine using Nuvaxovid plus Fluzone High‑Dose or Flublok, and it received BARDA funding for a pandemic influenza candidate using Novavax’s Matrix‑M adjuvant. [28]
- At the Jefferies London Healthcare Conference on November 19, Novavax called 2025 a transition year, with a more meaningful Sanofi‑led launch expected in 2026 and beyond. [29]
The takeaway: Novavax’s revenue profile is shifting from product sales to milestones and royalties. That can eventually lead to a leaner, more scalable model, but it also makes near‑term revenue lumpy and heavily dependent on partner execution.
4. Jefferies London: “new Novavax” built around Matrix‑M and partnerships
At the Jefferies London Healthcare Conference on November 19, Novavax’s leadership laid out what they described as a new chapter for the company. [30]
Key themes from the session:
- From pandemic to partnerships: Management framed Novavax’s pandemic phase as “chapter one” and described the future as a partnership‑driven, royalty‑rich model that leans heavily on larger players like Sanofi for commercialization. [31]
- Matrix‑M at the center: The company highlighted its Matrix‑M adjuvant as a core value driver, not just for COVID‑19, but for a broader ecosystem of vaccines — including a malaria vaccine developed with the Serum Institute and additional early‑stage collaborations. [32]
- Pipeline breadth: Early‑stage programs include candidates targeting shingles, C. difficile, RSV combinations and pandemic influenza, with experiments in newer modalities like intranasal delivery and oncology combinations. [33]
- End‑game vision: A “lean infrastructure, diversified top line, multiple partners” and a path to profitability in a few years — broadly consistent with the 2028 target discussed around Q3 earnings. [34]
For shareholders, the Jefferies update essentially confirmed that Novavax sees itself less as a standalone commercial vaccine company and more as a platform and partnership play.
5. Sector sentiment: NVAX flagged as “oversold” by some commentators
Despite its small size and volatility, NVAX continues to show up in broader biotech discussions.
- A November 23 article from Insider Monkey highlighted Novavax among “oversold biotech stocks” based on Relative Strength Index (RSI) screens and upside estimates from Wall Street analysts, noting that the list focuses on names with at least 20% upside potential and significant hedge‑fund interest. [35]
- Earlier in 2025, NVAX saw sharp rallies — for example, a mid‑year article from BioWorld noted a double‑digit percentage jump after an FDA approval-related development — but these spikes have often been followed by pullbacks as investors reassess long‑term demand for COVID‑19 vaccines. [36]
In short, some market participants now view Novavax as a high‑risk rebound candidate within a recovering biotech sector — but that thesis depends heavily on Sanofi’s execution, additional partnerships, and the outcome of Shah Capital’s campaign.
How NVAX trades vs. its history and biotech peers
Relative to both its own past and peers:
- Price vs high: NVAX is trading roughly 44% below its 52‑week high of $11.55. [37]
- One‑year value erosion: Market cap is down ~26–27% over the past year, even as broader biotech benchmarks have recovered with renewed risk appetite and rising M&A activity. [38]
- Beta / volatility: With a beta above 1 and large daily swings, NVAX behaves more like an option on future events (earnings, partnership updates, strategic moves) than a steady compounder. [39]
Compared with bigger vaccine names (like Moderna or Pfizer), Novavax is much smaller and more concentrated — both in its technology (Matrix‑M) and in its reliance on a few key partners.
What analysts are saying about Novavax stock
Analyst coverage of NVAX remains polarized:
- According to Zacks data, the average short‑term price target from nine analysts sits around $12.78, with a low estimate near $6, implying that the average target is roughly double the current price, but the low end is close to where shares already trade. [40]
- HC Wainwright & Co. recently raised its price target to $11 (from $10) while maintaining a “Buy” rating, underscoring ongoing bullishness among some specialists who see upside from the Sanofi partnership and pipeline optionality. [41]
At the same time:
- Shah Capital’s implied valuation range of $5–$10 billion suggests a dramatically higher takeover value than the public market is currently assigning (roughly $1.0–1.2 billion), but this is just one shareholder’s view and not a formal offer. [42]
The wide spread between current price, average Wall Street targets, and activist valuation highlights just how uncertain the market is about Novavax’s long‑term earnings power.
Key risks and opportunities for NVAX from here
Upside drivers to watch
- Sanofi commercialization and combo vaccine launch
- If Sanofi can build meaningful share for Nuvaxovid and later a combined COVID‑flu shot, Novavax could see high‑margin royalty streams for many years. [43]
- New Matrix‑M partnerships
- Management is actively courting other pharma companies to embed Matrix‑M into additional vaccines (including malaria, RSV, shingles, C. diff and potential oncology combinations). Each new deal could add milestones and long‑duration royalties. [44]
- Strategic transaction or sale
- Shah Capital’s campaign that explicitly pushes for a sale — plus its public naming of potential large‑pharma buyers — puts NVAX on the M&A radar, even if no formal process has been announced. [45]
- Biotech M&A & rate environment
- A more supportive biotech backdrop (falling rates, more deal activity) could lift valuations for small‑cap names like Novavax, especially those with platform technology and established big‑pharma partners. [46]
Major risks
- Persistently weak COVID‑19 demand
- COVID‑19 vaccine prescriptions have declined around 20% this season, and Novavax still has less than 1% market share, according to its own commentary and the Shah Capital letter. [47]
- If COVID‑19 demand continues to shrink or remains concentrated with a few entrenched players, royalties may underwhelm.
- Execution risk in the pivot to royalties
- Novavax is cutting its own commercial footprint and relying more on Sanofi and other partners. That keeps costs down but also means less direct control over sales and marketing.
- Profitability delayed to 2028
- With profitability pushed back one more year, investors face a long wait before the company expects to generate sustainable earnings, and that path still assumes successful launches and cost discipline. [48]
- Financing and balance sheet risk
- While cash levels remain substantial, continued net losses (like the Q3 $202 million loss) and non‑cash write‑downs tied to site consolidation and debt refinancings are reminders that Novavax must execute flawlessly to avoid future balance‑sheet stress. [49]
- Regulatory and safety overhang
- As with any vaccine developer, Novavax faces ongoing regulatory, safety and pharmacovigilance risks, particularly with myocarditis/pericarditis warnings and the need for additional post‑marketing data or new trials in some settings. [50]
What November 24, 2025 could mean for Novavax stock
With no major new company events scheduled for Monday itself, NVAX’s trading on November 24 is likely to reflect:
- Follow‑through (or reversal) of Friday’s bounce after that 4% move.
- Investor reaction to recent headlines — especially the Shah Capital campaign, Q3 results, and November conference commentary.
- Ongoing positioning by traders who view NVAX as an “oversold biotech” with potential M&A or partnership upside, versus skeptics focused on shrinking COVID demand and the long road to 2028 profitability.
For long‑term investors, Novavax stock at around $6.47 represents a high‑risk, high‑uncertainty bet on:
- The success of the Sanofi partnership and combination vaccine launches,
- The ability to monetize Matrix‑M across multiple partners and indications, and
- The possibility that strategic actions (including a sale) might unlock value beyond what the public market currently prices in.
Important note: This article is for information and news purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell NVAX, or any other security. Always do your own research or consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
References
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