Nu Holdings Ltd (NYSE: NU), the parent of Brazilian digital bank Nubank, is trading close to record territory on Friday as investors continue to digest blockbuster third‑quarter results and a bold AI‑driven expansion strategy. As of late afternoon on November 21, NU stock is changing hands around $15.89, up about 3.7% on the day, after touching an intraday high just above $16.00. [1]
The rally comes on the back of record Q3 2025 revenue and net income, an expanding customer base of 127 million, and growing optimism about Nubank’s plan to become an “AI‑first” bank and secure a U.S. national bank charter. [2]
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always do your own research or consult a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions.
NU stock price today: trading just below its 52‑week high
- Last trade (approx.): $15.89
- Day change: +$0.57 (about +3.7%)
- Intraday range: roughly $15.05 – $16.02
- Recent 52‑week high: about $16.55 [3]
- Recent 52‑week range: roughly $9.01 – $16.55 [4]
According to multiple real‑time feeds, NU has spent much of Friday’s session near the upper end of its trading range for the year, with intraday gains around 3–4% and volume well above a typical day. [5]
Momentum has been strong since last week’s earnings release, when the stock jumped after hours and then pushed higher in subsequent sessions, briefly setting that new 52‑week high near $16.55. [6]
Earnings recap: record revenue, profits and a 31% ROE
Nubank’s Q3 2025 report is the core driver behind today’s strength in NU stock.
Headline numbers
For the quarter ended September 30, 2025, Nu reported: [7]
- Revenue: about $4.2 billion, up 39% year‑over‑year on a currency‑neutral basis, and above Street expectations of around $3.8–$4.0 billion. [8]
- Net income: about $783 million, also up 39% YoY and ahead of analyst consensus around $757 million. [9]
- Adjusted net income: approximately $829 million, up 38% YoY. [10]
- Annualized return on equity (ROE): a record 31%. [11]
- Gross profit: around $1.8 billion, up 32% YoY with a 43.5% gross margin. [12]
EPS also moved higher, with basic earnings per share around $0.16, comfortably above last year’s level and modestly ahead of most estimates. [13]
Customer growth and unit economics
Beyond the top and bottom lines, Nubank continues to post impressive operating metrics: [14]
- Customer base: 127 million across Brazil, Mexico and Colombia, after adding roughly 4.3 million net new customers in Q3 alone.
- Activity rate: over 83–84% of customers are considered active.
- ARPAC (average revenue per active customer): about $13.4, up 20% YoY on a currency‑neutral basis, crossing the $13 threshold for the first time.
- Cost to serve: still extremely low at around $0.90 per active customer per month.
This combination—rising ARPAC and sub‑$1 cost to serve—helps explain how Nubank can grow rapidly while generating double‑digit ROE and record profits.
Balance sheet and credit quality
On the funding and lending side, Nu’s scale continues to climb: [15]
- Deposits: about $38.8 billion, up 34% YoY.
- Total credit portfolio: around $30.4 billion, up 42% YoY and 9% quarter‑over‑quarter.
- Net interest income: roughly $2.3 billion, up 32% YoY, with a 17.3% net interest margin.
Asset‑quality indicators are mixed but largely in line with expectations: [16]
- The 15–90 day delinquency ratio in Brazil improved to 4.2%, down 20 basis points sequentially.
- The 90+ day delinquency ratio rose to 6.8% from 6.6% in Q2, which management and analysts attribute mainly to seasonal factors rather than a structural deterioration in credit quality.
Overall, Q3 portrayed a business that is scaling fast, keeping costs low and managing credit risk within a tolerable band—key ingredients behind Friday’s bullish tone around NU stock.
Strategic drivers: AI‑first banking and a U.S. bank charter
Two strategic themes from recent announcements are particularly important for NU’s long‑term story: AI integration and geographic expansion.
AI‑first strategy
Management has repeatedly described Nubank’s vision as becoming an “AI‑first” bank, integrating large foundation models across underwriting, fraud detection, personalization and customer service. [17]
Highlights include:
- AI models (including the in‑house “Nuformer” system, as described in investor materials) that help optimize credit decisions and risk‑adjusted margins. [18]
- Personalized product recommendations and proactive alerts that aim to deepen engagement and lift ARPAC. [19]
- Efficiency gains that support the sub‑$1 monthly cost‑to‑serve figure, even as the customer base passes 100 million. [20]
This AI overlay is a key reason many analysts see Nubank as more akin to a high‑growth fintech platform than a traditional bank.
U.S. national bank charter application
In a separate but related move, Nubank applied for a U.S. national bank charter with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), positioning the company to potentially offer deposit accounts, cards, lending and even digital‑asset custody in the U.S. over time. [21]
According to the company, the charter bid is: [22]
- A “preparatory stage” for evolving from a regional Latin American platform into a more global model.
- A way to better serve existing customers who live in or spend time in the U.S.
- A long‑term growth option rather than an immediate shift in strategic focus away from Latin America.
The U.S. push adds upside optionality—but also regulatory complexity and execution risk—which investors are weighing into NU’s valuation today.
Wall Street view: “Moderate Buy” with rising price targets
Analysts have been steadily warming to NU in recent months, and this week’s price action reflects that improving sentiment.
Consensus ratings and targets
MarketBeat data shows that across 12 Wall Street analysts, NU carries a “Moderate Buy” consensus rating, with 8 Buy ratings and 4 Hold ratings. The average 12‑month price target is about $17.44, implying roughly 9–10% upside from current levels. [23]
GuruFocus, which aggregates a slightly broader set of broker models, puts the average target closer to $18.21, with a range from $12.47 on the low end to $22.00 on the high end—suggesting mid‑teens percentage upside on average, and significantly more in the most bullish scenarios. [24]
Fresh upgrades and hikes
Several recent moves stand out: [25]
- J.P. Morgan reaffirmed its “Overweight” rating and raised its NU price target from $17 to $18 this week, citing strong performance and improving profitability trends.
- Susquehanna lifted its target from $17 to $19 and maintained a “Positive” rating.
- KeyBanc moved its target from $15 to $19, also keeping an “Overweight” view.
- UBS has repeatedly nudged its target higher (most recently to $16) while retaining a “Neutral” stance.
Taken together, the pattern is clear: most covering analysts see more upside than downside in NU at current levels, though not all are outright bullish.
Institutional flows and short interest: bullish on top, cautious underneath
New institutional stakes
Recent 13F filings reveal that several institutions initiated or added to NU positions in the second quarter: [26]
- Cumberland Partners Ltd: bought 112,500 shares (about $1.54 million).
- Catalyst Funds Management Pty Ltd: purchased 57,800 shares (roughly $793,000).
- FineMark National Bank & Trust: opened a new position of 18,425 shares (about $253,000).
According to MarketBeat’s aggregation, about 84% of NU’s float is now held by institutional investors—evidence that large funds see Nubank as a core exposure to Latin American fintech growth. [27]
Short interest is rising
At the same time, short interest has ticked up, signaling some caution among traders. A Benzinga analysis today notes that: [28]
- Approximately 118.9 million NU shares are sold short.
- That represents about 3.18% of the freely tradable float.
- Short interest has risen roughly 16.5% since the last report.
- Based on recent trading volumes, it would take about 3.95 days for short sellers to cover.
- NU’s short interest percentage is notably higher than the peer‑group average of around 0.7%.
While 3–4% short interest is far from extreme, the upward trend suggests that some investors are either hedging gains after the run‑up or betting that today’s elevated valuation could face a pullback.
Valuation check: growth premium with bank‑style risks
With NU trading around the mid‑teens per share, recent filings and analyst notes imply: [29]
- A market cap in the mid‑$70 billion range.
- A price‑to‑earnings multiple around 30x recent earnings.
That puts Nu Holdings at a premium to many traditional banks, but more in line with high‑growth fintech names. Investors paying that multiple are effectively betting that:
- Revenue growth can remain strong as Nubank deepens penetration in Brazil and scales Mexico and Colombia.
- The AI‑driven efficiency edge will hold up as the company grows larger.
- Asset quality remains under control even through potential macro volatility in Latin America.
If those assumptions falter—through a credit shock, regulatory setbacks, or fiercer competition—the multiple could compress quickly.
Key risks investors are watching
Even on an upbeat day for NU stock, several risk factors remain front and center:
- Credit risk and consumer health
- Nubank’s portfolio is heavily exposed to mass‑market borrowers in Brazil, Mexico and Colombia. A sharp deterioration in employment or inflation dynamics could feed through to higher delinquencies and credit losses. [30]
- Regulatory and political risk
- The OCC bank charter process in the U.S. is lengthy and uncertain. U.S. regulators may impose capital, compliance or product constraints that slow Nubank’s expansion or reduce profitability. [31]
- In Latin America, evolving rules around interchange fees, consumer lending and data privacy could also affect growth and margins.
- Competition
- Nubank faces competition from both incumbent banks and local fintechs in all three of its core markets, plus global tech players encroaching on payments and banking. [32]
- Valuation and sentiment swings
- At a P/E near 30 and with the stock hovering near its 52‑week high, sentiment shifts—especially around growth stocks and AI themes—can produce outsized volatility even when fundamentals remain solid. [33]
What today’s setup means for NU stock
After Friday’s move, NU is:
- Trading just below its 52‑week high, with strong post‑earnings momentum. [34]
- Supported by record profitability, robust customer growth and a clearly articulated AI‑first roadmap. [35]
- Backed by a growing roster of institutional investors and increasingly bullish sell‑side price targets in the high‑teens. [36]
- Yet facing rising short interest and familiar risks around credit, regulation and macro conditions in its core markets. [37]
Historical event‑study work summarized by AInvest suggests that NU’s sharp up days (3%+ moves) have often been followed by modest short‑term give‑backs before the longer‑term trend reasserts itself. [38] That doesn’t guarantee what happens next—but it’s a reminder that even strong growth stories can be bumpy in the near term.
For investors and traders watching NU stock today, the message is straightforward:
- The fundamental story is firing on most cylinders, with earnings, ROE and customer growth all pointing in the right direction.
- Expect volatility, both because of the stock’s growth‑style valuation and because of the rising short‑interest backdrop.
Anyone considering NU should weigh that compelling growth narrative against the very real macro and regulatory risks—and align any position size with their own risk tolerance, time horizon and diversification needs.
References
1. www.investing.com, 2. www.businesswire.com, 3. www.ainvest.com, 4. www.marketbeat.com, 5. www.marketwatch.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.businesswire.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.businesswire.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.businesswire.com, 13. simplywall.st, 14. www.businesswire.com, 15. www.businesswire.com, 16. www.businesswire.com, 17. www.businesswire.com, 18. quartr.com, 19. www.businesswire.com, 20. www.businesswire.com, 21. www.businesswire.com, 22. www.businesswire.com, 23. www.marketbeat.com, 24. www.gurufocus.com, 25. www.gurufocus.com, 26. www.marketbeat.com, 27. www.marketbeat.com, 28. www.benzinga.com, 29. www.marketbeat.com, 30. www.businesswire.com, 31. www.businesswire.com, 32. www.businesswire.com, 33. www.marketbeat.com, 34. www.ainvest.com, 35. www.businesswire.com, 36. www.marketbeat.com, 37. www.benzinga.com, 38. www.ainvest.com
