Nvidia (NVDA) vs. Apple (AAPL) in 2025: YTD Performance, Market‑Cap Race, AI Catalysts, Valuations, and What to Watch Next (through Nov 7, 2025)

by Marcin Frąckiewicz

7 November 2025

Updated: November 7, 2025 — Tickers: NVDA, AAPL

TL;DR (for Google Discover readers)

Performance: As of Nov 7, 2025, Nvidia is up ~40% YTD, while Apple is up ~8% YTD in 2025. ^[1]
Market cap race: Nvidia crossed $4T earlier this year and still sits north of $4.5T; Apple briefly topped $4T in late October and hovers just under/around that mark. ^[2]
Big movers:
- Nvidia: Record quarters on the back of Blackwell AI systems; new mega‑deals in Europe (Deutsche Telekom) and pharma (Eli Lilly). ^[3]
- Apple: Record September quarter revenue, stronger early iPhone 17 sell‑through, and AI roadmap (“Apple Intelligence”) expanding—plus a reported Gemini deal to power the next Siri. ^[4]
Valuation snapshot: Trailing P/E near ~53–58 for NVDA vs ~36 for AAPL; forward P/Es cluster near ~28–30 (NVDA) and ~33 (AAPL). ^[5]

2025 Scoreboard: Returns and Market Caps (YTD to Nov 7)

YTD returns:NVDA +~40%, AAPL +~8% (total‑return basis). ^[6]
Market caps today-ish: NVDA ~$4.57T; AAPL ~$4.0T (real‑time figures fluctuate intraday). ^[7]
Milestones: Nvidia became the first $4T chipmaker in July; Apple briefly eclipsed $4T on Oct 28 amid iPhone 17 strength. ^[8]

Nvidia in 2025: AI Infrastructure Still in the Driver’s Seat

Another record quarter. For Q2 FY2026 (reported Aug 27), Nvidia posted $46.7B revenue (+56% YoY) and $41.1B from data centers, with Blackwell data‑center revenue rising 17% sequentially. CFO commentary noted no H20 sales to China that quarter and a one‑time $180M inventory release. ^[9]

New “AI factory” wins. Nvidia announced a €1B partnership with Deutsche Telekom to launch an Industrial AI Cloud in Munich (targeting early 2026), and Eli Lilly revealed a Blackwell‑based AI supercomputer to accelerate drug discovery. These deepen Nvidia’s footprint across telecom and pharma. ^[10]

Macro & supply backdrop. China’s evolving procurement stance remains a swing factor; recent reporting points to tighter use of domestically produced AI chips in state‑funded data centers—potentially a headwind for foreign suppliers. Nvidia has also reiterated that recent quarters saw no H20 shipments to China, reflecting export‑control constraints. ^[11]

Next checkpoint:Q3 FY2026 results are scheduled for Nov 19, 2025 (2 p.m. PT)—a key read on Blackwell ramps, margins, and 2026 guidance. ^[12]

Apple in 2025: Records, iPhone 17 Momentum, and an AI Rethink

September quarter record. Apple’s Q4 FY2025 revenue hit $102.5B (+8% YoY), with EPS +13% (adjusted). Services reached a new all‑time high, underscoring the mix shift beyond hardware. ^[13]

Early iPhone 17 outperformance. Independent tracking from Counterpoint indicates iPhone 17 out‑sold iPhone 16 by ~14% in the first 10 days across the U.S. and China, helping propel shares to records in October and push Apple’s market value near/above $4T intraday. ^[14]

Apple Intelligence rollout (and limitations). Apple’s support documentation (updated Nov 3) details device/language availability for Apple Intelligence and notes that features aren’t currently active in mainland China—a strategic constraint for iPhone differentiation in that market. ^[15]

Reported Gemini deal. Multiple outlets report Apple is nearing a ~$1B/yr agreement to use a custom Google Gemini model to power the next‑gen Siri, with compute on Apple’s Private Cloud Compute. That could accelerate feature parity while Apple builds more in‑house models. ^[16]

Regulatory overhangs. The U.S. DOJ antitrust case against Apple survived a motion to dismiss in June, and Apple has spent much of 2025 revising EU App Store terms under the DMA—both issues to watch into 2026. ^[17]

Valuation Check (Nov 6–7, 2025 readings)

TTM P/E:NVDA ~53–58; AAPL ~36. (Ranges reflect different data vendors’ time stamps.) ^[18]
Forward P/E:NVDA ~28–30; AAPL ~33. (Directional, consensus‑based.) ^[19]

Interpretation: Nvidia’s premium reflects rapid, high‑margin data‑center growth and visibility into Blackwell shipments; Apple’s multiple prices in resilience of Services and the iPhone 17 cycle plus optionality from AI features landing in 2026. ^[20]

What Moved Each Stock in 2025

Nvidia

Blackwell ramp (and record quarterly revenue/data‑center sales). ^[21]
Mega‑partnerships in Europe and healthcare (Deutsche Telekom, Eli Lilly) that diversify demand. ^[22]
Market‑cap milestones: from $4T in mid‑year to tussling with the top slot among U.S. mega‑caps. ^[23]

Apple

iPhone 17 launch strength improved sentiment after a slower start to 2025. ^[24]
All‑time high Services revenue and record September quarter. ^[25]
AI story clarity: public documentation of Apple Intelligence availability and a reported Gemini deal to accelerate Siri. ^[26]

Key Risks to Monitor

Nvidia: Export controls and China procurement shifts (e.g., guidance to favor domestic AI chips for state‑funded data centers); rising competition from AMD and Google’s TPUs could influence pricing/pod architectures. ^[27]
Apple: Ongoing U.S. antitrust case and compliance with the EU DMA could alter App Store economics; AI feature rollout gaps in China remain a commercial headwind. ^[28]

2025–2026 Catalysts & Dates

Nvidia:Q3 FY2026 earnings — Nov 19, 2025 (watch for Blackwell shipments/margins/guidance). ^[29]
Apple:Holiday‑quarter (Q1 FY2026) earnings expected late Jan 2026 (exact date typically announced closer in). ^[30]
Europe AI build‑out: Deutsche Telekom’s Industrial AI Cloud targeting early 2026 go‑live. ^[31]

So…NVDA or AAPL?

Momentum vs. durability: 2025 favored NVDA on returns (AI capacity build‑out, record quarters). AAPL offered steadier compounding with a record September quarter, stronger iPhone cycle optics, and Services strength—plus potential AI feature upgrades in 2026 to re‑accelerate engagement. ^[32]
Valuation context: NVDA’s faster growth supports a higher multiple, but forward P/E’s narrowing toward the high‑20s puts more weight on continued Blackwell execution; AAPL’s low‑30s forward P/E presumes sustained Services growth and successful AI upgrades. ^[33]

Editorial view: For 2025 through today, Nvidia “won” the scoreboard. Into 2026, investors will likely handicap NVDA on supply, competitive pods, and China policy; AAPL on AI feature timing (Siri/Gemini) and regulatory outcomes. Position sizing often comes down to time horizon and risk tolerance rather than a single “either/or.”

FAQ

Which stock performed better in 2025 (YTD to Nov 7)?
Nvidia (+~40%) outperformed Apple (+~8%) year‑to‑date. ^[34]

Did both companies touch $4T+ valuation in 2025?
Yes. Nvidia crossed $4T earlier in the year; Apple briefly topped $4T on Oct 28. ^[35]

What’s the freshest Nvidia fundamental data?
Q2 FY2026: $46.7B revenue, $41.1B data‑center, and note about no H20 sales to China; Q3 FY2026 earnings is Nov 19. ^[36]

What’s the latest on Apple’s AI plan?
Apple’s support page details Apple Intelligence availability (updated Nov 3). Separately, Bloomberg/Reuters report Apple is nearing a $1B/yr deal to use Google Gemini for the next‑gen Siri. ^[37]

Sources

Performance & Valuations: FinanceCharts (YTD/price), Macrotrends & FinanceCharts (P/E), GuruFocus (forward P/E). ^[38]
Nvidia results & guidance: Nvidia newsroom/IR. ^[39]
Apple results & products: Apple newsroom (Q4 FY2025); Counterpoint/Reuters on iPhone 17; Apple Support (Apple Intelligence availability). ^[40]
Market‑cap milestones: Reuters coverage of Nvidia & Apple $4T events. ^[41]
New Nvidia partnerships: Reuters on Deutsche Telekom & Eli Lilly. ^[42]
Regulatory: DOJ case (Reuters); EU DMA compliance (Reuters). ^[43]
China AI chips policy: Reuters. ^[44]

This article is for information and education only and is not investment advice. Markets move quickly; always verify figures and consider professional guidance before making investment decisions.

References

1. www.financecharts.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. nvidianews.nvidia.com, 4. www.apple.com, 5. www.macrotrends.net, 6. www.financecharts.com, 7. stockanalysis.com, 8. www.barrons.com, 9. nvidianews.nvidia.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. investor.nvidia.com, 13. www.apple.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. support.apple.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.macrotrends.net, 19. www.gurufocus.com, 20. nvidianews.nvidia.com, 21. nvidianews.nvidia.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.apple.com, 26. support.apple.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. investor.nvidia.com, 30. www.wallstreethorizon.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.financecharts.com, 33. www.gurufocus.com, 34. www.financecharts.com, 35. www.barrons.com, 36. nvidianews.nvidia.com, 37. support.apple.com, 38. www.financecharts.com, 39. nvidianews.nvidia.com, 40. www.apple.com, 41. www.barrons.com, 42. www.reuters.com, 43. www.reuters.com, 44. www.reuters.com

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CEO of TS2 Space and founder of TS2.tech. Expert in satellites, telecommunications, and emerging technologies, covering trends in space, AI, and connectivity.

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