Palantir stock is trading higher today after a bruising post‑earnings pullback last week, even as Wall Street remains sharply divided over the AI contractor’s sky‑high valuation.
What’s new today (Nov. 10)
- Michael Burry vs. Alex Karp: “Big Short” investor Michael Burry fired back on X after CEO Alex Karp called bearish bets on Palantir and Nvidia “batshit crazy” in a CNBC interview last week. Burry’s latest 13F showed puts on ~5 million PLTR shares (notional ~$912M) as of Sept. 30; his posts today suggest he may have since closed the position. The back‑and‑forth is underscoring the market’s split view on PLTR after its epic run. [1]
- Price action: As of this writing, PLTR trades near $193.6, up ~8.8% intraday, after opening around $184.4 and swinging between $183.1–$193.7. Volumes are elevated.
Q3 by the numbers: acceleration across the board
Palantir’s Q3 revenue rose 63% year over year to $1.18B, with U.S. commercial revenue up 121% to $397M and U.S. government revenue up 52% to $486M—a mix shift the company says is being propelled by its AI Platform (AIP). Slides also highlight a Rule‑of‑40 score of 114% and U.S. commercial total contract value (TCV) of $1.3B, +342% y/y. [2]
Guidance: Management raised FY2025 revenue guidance to $4.396–$4.400B and now targets Q4 revenue of $1.327–$1.331B with adjusted free cash flow of $1.9–$2.1B for the year. [3]
Why the valuation debate is raging
- Reason to sell? A widely shared post‑earnings take notes Palantir’s “epic run‑up” has left it priced for perfection, warning that the AI trade’s high expectations make the stock vulnerable to sharp corrections. [4]
- Forward P/E vs. peers: Reuters pegs PLTR’s forward P/E above 240, dwarfing Nvidia’s ~33, a gap that helps explain the whipsawing sentiment despite strong prints. [5]
- Street split: Recent rundowns show Jefferies calling valuation “extreme” (PT $70), UBS and William Blair cautioning on free‑cash‑flow multiples, while Wedbush urges buying the dip (PT $230) and Bank of America goes Street‑high at $255. Translation: conviction on execution; consternation on price. [6]
The long‑game case: will Palantir outlast AI exuberance?
The Economist argues Palantir’s success isn’t just riding a hype cycle: the AIP‑led playbook (short “bootcamps,” fast on‑ramps, and an “ontology” layer that makes data usable in real workflows) has reached a profitable scale—and could keep compounding even if AI enthusiasm cools. [7]
The ultra‑bull view: “$1T in the making”?
In a weekend note, one Seeking Alpha contributor framed Q3 as another double‑beat and pointed to 121% U.S. commercial growth, TCV momentum, and operating leverage (Rule‑of‑40 > 100) as evidence Palantir could grow into a trillion‑dollar market cap within five to six years—while acknowledging today’s valuation is demanding. It’s an opinionated take, but it captures the fervor of the bull camp. [8]
What to watch next
- Conversion of AIP pilots to scaled deployments: The slides show rising commercial customer counts (+49% y/y) and bigger deal sizes; investors will want to see those translate into durable revenue and FCF into 2026. [9]
- Government pipeline: DoD/Army programs and enterprise‑wide agreements remain a bedrock—watch new task orders and renewals for evidence of longevity beyond the current AI cycle. (Context: recent coverage has emphasized Palantir’s “sweet spot” in federal AI spending.) [10]
- Macro/positioning risk: After a year in which the stock more than doubled, momentum cuts both ways; valuation‑led pullbacks can be swift if growth or margins wobble. [11]
Bottom line
- Today’s story is equal parts fundamentals and narrative: great numbers, higher guidance, and a CEO publicly defending the franchise—set against bubble worries and star‑power shorts questioning the price tag. [12]
- For Google News readers, the takeaway is simple: Palantir is executing, but expect volatility as the market renegotiates how much it’s willing to pay for that execution in a crowded AI trade. [13]
Key takeaways (TL;DR)
- PLTR up ~9% intraday as the Burry–Karp spat keeps the stock in headlines. [14]
- Q3 revenue +63% to $1.18B; U.S. commercial +121%; Rule‑of‑40 114%; FY revenue guide raised to $4.396–$4.400B. [15]
- Valuation is the wedge: forward P/E > 240 vs. NVDA ~33; analysts are split ($70 to $255 PTs). [16]
- Strategic lens: The Economist argues Palantir’s model can outlast AI hype; bulls even float $1T potential over time, while bears worry about paying too much today. [17]
Disclosure: This article is for news and analysis only and is not investment advice. Always do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.
Sources: Yahoo Finance analysis on valuation risk; The Economist on durable advantages; Seeking Alpha’s bull case; Palantir’s Q3 investor materials; Reuters on guidance and forward P/E; Business Insider on today’s Burry–Karp exchange. [18]
References
1. www.businessinsider.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. investors.palantir.com, 4. finance.yahoo.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.investopedia.com, 7. www.economist.com, 8. seekingalpha.com, 9. investors.palantir.com, 10. www.barrons.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. investors.palantir.com, 13. finance.yahoo.com, 14. www.businessinsider.com, 15. investors.palantir.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.economist.com, 18. finance.yahoo.com
