By [Your Name] – November 30, 2025
Palantir Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: PLTR) ends November 2025 in a very strange place: fundamentally stronger than it has ever been, yet one of the worst-performing big tech stocks this month.
After hitting all‑time highs earlier in the quarter, Palantir stock has dropped roughly 16–17% in November, its worst monthly slide since August 2023, according to coverage from the Associated Press, MarketWatch, and crypto/markets outlets tracking the move. [1]
Investors now face a sharp question: is this just a healthy reset after a spectacular run, or the start of a longer deflation of an AI favorite that some analysts now call “the most overvalued company that ever existed”? [2]
Where Palantir stock stands at the end of November 2025
As U.S. markets closed for the week on Friday, November 28, Palantir shares finished around $168 per share, up modestly on the day but well below recent peaks above $200. That price implies a market capitalization of roughly $400 billion and a one‑year trading range of about $63 to $207 per share. [3]
On most conventional valuation metrics, Palantir is still in the nosebleed section:
- 24/7 Wall St. estimates ~360x trailing earnings and ~153x forward earnings, with a price‑to‑sales ratio above 100x. [4]
- MarketBeat and GuruFocus data imply a P/E well north of 350x and a P/S comfortably into triple digits, even after November’s correction. [5]
- Reuters notes that Palantir trades at nearly 250x forward earnings, compared with about 33x for Nvidia and ~30x for Microsoft, underscoring how far above even other AI leaders PLTR now sits. [6]
Despite this month’s pullback, the longer‑term picture is extraordinary. Reuters and Business Insider both highlight that Palantir is up more than 170% in 2025 and roughly 10x–25x over the last two years, depending on start date, placing it among the top winners of the post‑ChatGPT AI boom. [7]
Q3 2025: Palantir’s strongest quarter yet
The paradox of the sell‑off is that it began just as Palantir delivered its best quarter on record.
According to the company’s Q3 2025 results and investor presentation:
- Revenue reached about $1.18 billion, up 63% year‑over‑year and 18% quarter‑over‑quarter. [8]
- U.S. revenue grew 77% year‑over‑year, driven largely by commercial customers.
- U.S. commercial revenue surged 121% year‑over‑year and 29% quarter‑over‑quarter, a sign that Palantir’s Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) is gaining traction outside traditional defense and intelligence accounts. [9]
- Commercial revenue overall grew 73% year‑over‑year, while government revenue rose 55%. [10]
- GAAP earnings per share hit $0.21, more than doubling from a year earlier, with GAAP net income of roughly $476 million and a net margin above 40%. [11]
- The company reported GAAP operating margin around 33% and an adjusted operating margin of about 51%, with an impressive “Rule of 40” score (growth plus margin) above 90%. [12]
Palantir raised guidance for the third time this year, now expecting:
- Q4 2025 revenue between $1.327–$1.331 billion, implying ~61% year‑over‑year growth.
- Full‑year 2025 revenue of $4.396–$4.400 billion, about 53% growth versus 2024.
- Full‑year adjusted operating income of $2.151–$2.155 billion and free cash flow of $1.9–$2.1 billion. [13]
On paper, that makes Palantir look less like a speculative story stock and more like a high‑margin software platform growing at “hyperscale” speeds.
So why did Palantir stock fall after record earnings?
Despite the blowout quarter, Palantir’s shares fell 8–9% on November 4–5, immediately after earnings, and the pressure persisted throughout the month. [14]
Several overlapping factors drove the reversal:
1. Profit‑taking after a massive AI rally
By early November, Palantir had already:
- More than doubled in 2025,
- Surged roughly 1,000% over the prior two years, outpacing even many megacap AI names. [15]
Investopedia’s market recap notes that Palantir led tech declines on the day of its earnings beat, even while posting “record quarterly results” and raising guidance for the third straight quarter – classic “good news, priced in” behavior. [16]
2. The “AI bubble” debate and Burry’s short
Public skepticism about an AI stock bubble intensified in November:
- Reuters reported that “Big Short” investor Michael Burry disclosed large bearish put positions on Palantir and Nvidia, warning of inflated AI spending and stretched valuations. [17]
- A follow‑up Business Insider piece highlighted that Burry still owns puts against Palantir and believes AI names may be overstating the useful life of Nvidia‑class hardware, leading to future writedowns. [18]
Whether or not his trades directly moved the stock, Burry provided a convenient narrative: if the most famous bubble‑caller in modern markets is betting against your AI darling, investors listen.
3. Valuation alarm bells from Wall Street
In the last week, several high‑profile pieces have framed Palantir’s valuation as extreme, even by growth‑stock standards:
- 24/7 Wall St. argues that Palantir “could be the most overvalued company that ever existed,” noting 360x trailing earnings, 153x forward earnings, and P/S above 100x at a market cap near $370 billion. [19]
- A recent Seeking Alpha analysis reiterating a Sell rating calls the 25%+ post‑earnings pullback “not a buying opportunity,” arguing Palantir may be pulling forward years of demand via large multi‑year deals, raising questions about sustainable growth. [20]
- Reuters points out that Palantir now trades at roughly 8–10 times the forward earnings multiples of Nvidia or Microsoft, putting it in a valuation class of its own. [21]
For many institutional investors, November’s tech shakeout has been the first time in the AI cycle where “valuation discipline” is back in fashion, and Palantir has become the poster child for that re‑rating.
Contracts and AI deals: The bull case keeps getting stronger
The irony is that as the stock corrects, Palantir’s strategic position in AI and government data infrastructure arguably looks better than ever.
$10B U.S. Army Enterprise Agreement
In July, the U.S. Army awarded Palantir a 10‑year Enterprise Agreement with a ceiling value of $10 billion, consolidating roughly 75 prior contracts into a single framework. [22]
The agreement:
- Streamlines the Army’s procurement of data integration, analytics and AI tools,
- Reduces contract pass‑through fees and procurement timelines,
- Deepens Palantir’s role in operational decision‑support across the service. [23]
$385M Department of Veterans Affairs analytics platform
In October, the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs awarded Palantir a $385.4 million contract to build and support the National Center for Veterans Analysis and Statistics (NCVAS) Platform, replacing the prior Foundry‑based system. [24]
The new platform will:
- Ingest healthcare and benefits data from the VA, DoD, HHS, SSA and IRS,
- Support “full operational decision‑making capability” across the VA,
- Aim to improve veteran health outcomes through integrated analytics. [25]
Commercial partnerships: Valoriza, Accenture, Deloitte and more
Palantir’s commercial AI footprint has expanded aggressively in 2025:
- In Spain, Palantir formed a strategic alliance with Valoriza, using AIP and Foundry to optimise waste‑management routes with real‑time data from connected containers, vehicle fleets and city infrastructure. [26]
- In June, Accenture Federal Services became a preferred implementation partner for Palantir’s U.S. federal deployments, helping scale AIP and Foundry across defense, intelligence and civilian agencies. [27]
- In July, Deloitte and Palantir launched an “Enterprise Operating System” combining Deloitte’s domain tools with AIP and Foundry, backed by a Palantir-focused center of excellence in Arlington, Virginia. [28]
A FedSavvy Strategies deep‑dive on Palantir’s federal portfolio concludes that the company is pivoting from pure software vendor to “central orchestrator” of AI ecosystems across both government and commercial sectors. [29]
Taken together, these deals make it easier to see how Palantir could plausibly reach the $4.4 billion in revenue it has guided for 2025 – and even why some bulls talk about a potential trillion‑dollar valuation someday. [30]
Insider selling vs institutional buying
Valuation anxiety has been amplified by heavy insider selling at recent prices.
MarketBeat data show that over the last 90 days:
- Insiders sold roughly 1.15 million PLTR shares, worth about $186 million,
- Yet insiders still own roughly 9% of the company, a substantial founder‑driven stake. [31]
Separately, earlier in 2025 TipRanks reported that CEO Alex Karp and President Stephen Cohen have together sold billions of dollars’ worth of stock since last year, with Karp alone having disposed of around $1.9 billion and planning further programmed sales as part of a diversification plan. [32]
That has led to headlines like “Palantir CEO is cashing in. Should you be nervous?” and raised questions about whether executives see current prices as unusually rich. [33]
On the other side of the ledger:
- Major institutions such as Vanguard, State Street and Northern Trust have all increased their stakes, according to recent 13F‑driven summaries. [34]
- A fresh MarketBeat alert notes that New York State Common Retirement Fund recently added to its Palantir position, alongside several wealth managers. [35]
The result: ownership is shifting slowly from founder‑heavy insider control toward broad institutional ownership, a typical pattern for companies that have moved from speculative story stocks into megacap territory – albeit at very unusual multiples.
What Wall Street is saying about PLTR now
Consensus: “Hold” – with targets clustered near today’s price
Despite the excitement, Palantir is not a unanimous buy on Wall Street:
- MarketBeat reports a consensus “Hold” rating, with 5 Buy, 17 Hold and 2 Sell recommendations and an average price target around $172 – only slightly above the current price. [36]
- Wall Street Zen recently downgraded Palantir from Buy to Hold, citing valuation concerns and significant recent insider selling. [37]
Several brokers, including Bank of America, Goldman Sachs and others, have lifted their price targets into the $180–$255 range on the back of Q3’s beat and raised guidance, but those upgrades preceded the latest November correction and valuation debate. [38]
Bulls: “Elite growth with strong cash flow”
On the bullish side:
- Zacks gives Palantir a Growth Score of A and rates it Rank #2 (Buy), highlighting expectations for ~77% EPS growth this year, strong free‑cash‑flow trends and above‑average cash‑flow growth versus peers. [39]
- Multiple Motley Fool and MarketBeat articles emphasize Palantir’s Rule‑of‑40 scores above 90%, high gross margins and unique position as an AI “operating system” across defense and critical infrastructure. [40]
- Wedbush’s Dan Ives continues to list Palantir among his top AI stocks to own into year‑end, arguing that the broader AI cycle is still in early innings. [41]
In this framing, November’s 16–17% slide looks more like a violent but temporary shakeout inside a longer multi‑year AI up‑cycle.
Bears: “The valuation math doesn’t work”
Bearish analysts counter with several arguments:
- 24/7 Wall St. calculates that Palantir would need to grow revenue roughly 1,500% over 25 years to justify its current valuation, even under generous assumptions. [42]
- The Seeking Alpha “Sell” thesis warns that Palantir may be pulling forward future demand through large, multi‑year contracts – potentially leaving a growth air pocket later in the decade. [43]
- Reuters highlights that Palantir trades at valuation multiples far above other AI leaders, making it especially vulnerable if AI spending slows or sentiment turns. [44]
Add in polarizing headlines about CEO Alex Karp’s politics and the company’s long‑running surveillance and immigration‑enforcement controversies, and some analysts see additional “headline risk” baked into the story. [45]
What November’s volatility tells PLTR investors
For investors trying to decide what to do with Palantir stock after this month’s slide, a few themes stand out.
1. The business and the multiple are moving in opposite directions
On the business side, Palantir is:
- Growing revenue faster than 60% year‑over‑year,
- Doing so with expanding GAAP profitability and free cash flow,
- Deepening its moat via long‑term, mission‑critical government and commercial contracts. [46]
On the valuation side, the company:
- Trades at hundreds of times earnings and well over 100x sales,
- Sits at a forward multiple multiple times higher than Nvidia or Microsoft,
- Faces a market that is suddenly much more sensitive to valuation than it was in 2023–2024. [47]
That tension is exactly what November’s sell‑off is expressing.
2. Insider selling matters mainly because of the starting valuation
Executives selling stock in a megacap is not unusual. But heavy insider selling at peak multiples inevitably fuels the perception that “management is cashing out while the music’s still playing.” [48]
The data so far suggest:
- Insiders are reducing positions, not exiting,
- Institutions are still net buyers at these levels. [49]
But when combined with relentless headlines about the CEO “cashing in,” those sales have clearly added psychological pressure in a market already worried about an AI bubble. [50]
3. The range of reasonable outcomes is unusually wide
Because Palantir now sits at the intersection of:
- High‑beta AI sentiment,
- Massive government and defense spending on data and autonomy,
- Extremely stretched multiples,
the distribution of future outcomes is wide:
- In bullish scenarios, Palantir maintains 30–40%+ growth for years, AIP becomes a default AI operations layer for governments and critical infrastructure, and today’s valuation eventually looks merely “expensive, not insane.”
- In bearish scenarios, growth slows sharply as contracts mature, governments tighten budgets or politics turn, and the stock “re‑rates” down toward more normal multiples – which, from 100x+ sales, could still imply very large downside even if the business continues to grow. [51]
For long‑term holders, that means risk management is less about guessing next quarter’s earnings and more about how much portfolio exposure you’re comfortable tying to one extremely volatile AI name.
Key takeaways on Palantir stock as of November 30, 2025
- Fundamentals are on fire. Q3 2025 delivered 63% revenue growth, strong profitability and another guidance raise, fueled by triple‑digit growth in U.S. commercial revenue and major new government contracts. [52]
- The stock just had its worst month in over two years. Palantir shares fell roughly 16–17% in November, even as AI indices remained volatile but intact, making PLTR one of the month’s worst performers in big tech. [53]
- Valuation is the flashpoint. With multiples of 250–360x earnings and P/S above 100x, Palantir has become the prime example in the “AI bubble vs new paradigm” debate. [54]
- Insiders are selling; institutions are staying. Executives have sold more than $100 million in recent months and billions over the last couple of years, while major funds continue to accumulate shares. [55]
- Wall Street is split. The consensus rating is “Hold,” with a cluster of price targets only slightly above current levels, but growth‑oriented services like Zacks still see PLTR as a top‑tier growth name based on earnings and cash‑flow trends. [56]
For now, Palantir stock sits at the crossroads of two stories: one about a company executing at a historically strong level, and another about a market finally pushing back against extreme AI valuations. Which of those stories dominates in 2026 will likely determine whether November’s drop was a buying opportunity, the start of a long grind lower, or just one more sharp swing in what has already become one of the market’s most volatile megacaps.
References
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