Key facts (Nov 4, 2025)
- Price check: Pre‑market $192.97 at 5:57 a.m. ET (–6.86%); prior close $207.18 (+3.35%). 1
- 52‑week range: $63.41–$207.47 (record high set Monday). 2
- Q3 results: Revenue $1.18B (+63% y/y), adjusted EPS $0.21; U.S. commercial revenue +121% y/y to $397M. CEO Alex Karp called the segment an “absolute juggernaut” and growth “otherworldly.” 3
- Guidance: Q4 revenue $1.327–$1.331B (implies ~61% y/y); full‑year revenue raised to $4.396–$4.40B. 4
- Valuation watch: Forward P/E around 246, per LSEG data. 4
- Overseas read‑through: Frankfurt‑listed shares –5.8% by 0705 GMT. 5
What’s happening today (4.11.2025)
Palantir (NASDAQ: PLTR) swung lower in early U.S. trading despite recording another blockbuster quarter and hiking guidance, as investors reassessed lofty AI valuations after a year‑long melt‑up. Pre‑market quotes showed the stock down nearly 7% to $192.97 as of 5:57 a.m. ET, versus Monday’s record close at $207.18. 1
The wobble came alongside a broader tech pullback. One market strategist summed up the mood, saying “the market is overbought” and there’s “a lot of overvalued stuff…concentrated in tech.” 6
Earnings in focus
Palantir’s Q3 revenue climbed 63% year over year to $1.18B, with adjusted EPS of $0.21, both ahead of estimates. Momentum remains most intense in the U.S. commercial business (revenue +121% y/y to $397M), even as government remains a core pillar. In a letter to investors, CEO Alex Karp described the commercial operation as an “absolute juggernaut” and the company’s overall trajectory as “otherworldly.” 3
For Q4, management forecast $1.327–$1.331B in revenue (about 61% y/y), and lifted full‑year guidance to $4.396–$4.40B. Executives also highlighted a deepening Nvidia collaboration and fresh U.S. Army momentum—CTO Shyam Sankar noted an Army memo directing organizations to use Palantir’s Vantage platform. 4
Why the stock is wobbling anyway
Two things are colliding:
- Expectations vs. valuation. After a near 400% one‑year surge, even solid “beat‑and‑raise” numbers can trigger profit‑taking. One portfolio manager called the growth slowdown to ~61% in Q4 a “cause of concern given the stock’s lofty valuation.” D.A. Davidson countered that results should be enough to support shares at “unprecedentedly high valuation levels.” 6
- Macro backdrop. U.S. futures were under pressure this morning on fresh warnings about stretched equity markets, compounding moves in high‑multiple AI names like Palantir. 6
The outlook: what could move PLTR next
Bull case, near term (next 3–6 months):
- AI adoption flywheel keeps accelerating (continued AIP rollouts, bootcamps, and conversions).
- Defense & public sector tailwinds persist (Army Vantage directive; allied demand for decision‑support software).
- Partner ecosystem (e.g., Nvidia) shortens time‑to‑value for customers, sustaining triple‑digit U.S. commercial growth comps. 4
Bear case, near term:
- Multiple compression if growth decelerates from the Q3 peak or if risk‑off sentiment intensifies—particularly with a forward P/E near ~246.
- Dependence on U.S. demand leaves results sensitive to budget and policy noise; any slowdown in new AIP deployments could sting. 4
What to watch next:
- Post‑earnings analyst moves and how consensus price targets shift from today’s mixed stance (broad range across the Street). 7
- Deal flow and conversion rates from AIP pilot programs to multi‑year contracts. (Management emphasized continued strength here on the call and in materials.) 4
- Stock behavior around key levels: prior close $207.18 and the pre‑market trough near $193; a decisive move above the $207 area would mark a fresh breakout beyond the 52‑week high. 8
Quick valuation & levels snapshot (today)
- Forward P/E: ~246 (LSEG). 4
- 52‑week range: $63.41–$207.47. 2
- Consensus 12‑month target (various aggregators): average around $148, with a wide $45–$225 spread—illustrating just how divided the Street remains. 7
Expert voices, in their words
- Alex Karp, CEO: Palantir’s growth is “otherworldly,” and the U.S. commercial unit is an “absolute juggernaut.” 3
- Blake Anderson, Carson Group: Q4’s slower growth pace is a “cause of concern given the stock’s lofty valuation.” 4
- Gil Luria, D.A. Davidson: Results may be sufficient to keep shares at “unprecedentedly high valuation levels.”4
- David Morrison, Trade Nation: The market looks “overbought,” with “a lot of overvalued stuff…concentrated in tech.” 6
Sources & further reading (Nov 4, 2025)
- Pre‑market move & live blog context: MarketWatch live coverage and price card. 9
- Prior close & volume: WSJ market data for PLTR. 8
- 52‑week range and key metrics: Reuters company page. 2
- Q3 beat, raised guidance, valuation, Nvidia/Army updates: Reuters earnings wrap. 4
- CEO commentary (“juggernaut,” “otherworldly”) & segment growth detail: Investopedia earnings coverage. 3
- European price action: Reuters Europe market brief. 5
- Macro backdrop affecting AI names (including PLTR) & strategist quote: Reuters pre‑market markets note. 6
- Consensus target range snapshot: MarketBeat analyst‑target aggregator. 7
Note: This article uses data current to Tuesday, November 4, 2025 (a.k.a. 4.11.2025). Pre‑market quotes change rapidly; always check a real‑time feed before trading. This is not investment advice.
