Palantir Stock Whipsaws After ‘Otherworldly’ Q3—Has the 400% AI Rally Finally Met Its Match?

Key facts (Nov 4, 2025)

Price check: Pre‑market $192.97 at 5:57 a.m. ET (–6.86%); prior close $207.18 (+3.35%). ^[1]
52‑week range: $63.41–$207.47 (record high set Monday). ^[2]
Q3 results: Revenue $1.18B (+63% y/y), adjusted EPS $0.21; U.S. commercial revenue +121% y/y to $397M. CEO Alex Karp called the segment an “absolute juggernaut” and growth “otherworldly.” ^[3]
Guidance: Q4 revenue $1.327–$1.331B (implies ~61% y/y); full‑year revenue raised to $4.396–$4.40B. ^[4]
Valuation watch: Forward P/E around 246, per LSEG data. ^[5]
Overseas read‑through: Frankfurt‑listed shares –5.8% by 0705 GMT. ^[6]

What’s happening today (4.11.2025)

Palantir (NASDAQ: PLTR) swung lower in early U.S. trading despite recording another blockbuster quarter and hiking guidance, as investors reassessed lofty AI valuations after a year‑long melt‑up. Pre‑market quotes showed the stock down nearly 7% to $192.97 as of 5:57 a.m. ET, versus Monday’s record close at $207.18. ^[7]

The wobble came alongside a broader tech pullback. One market strategist summed up the mood, saying “the market is overbought” and there’s “a lot of overvalued stuff…concentrated in tech.” ^[8]

Earnings in focus

Palantir’s Q3 revenue climbed 63% year over year to $1.18B, with adjusted EPS of $0.21, both ahead of estimates. Momentum remains most intense in the U.S. commercial business (revenue +121% y/y to $397M), even as government remains a core pillar. In a letter to investors, CEO Alex Karp described the commercial operation as an “absolute juggernaut” and the company’s overall trajectory as “otherworldly.” ^[9]

For Q4, management forecast $1.327–$1.331B in revenue (about 61% y/y), and lifted full‑year guidance to $4.396–$4.40B. Executives also highlighted a deepening Nvidia collaboration and fresh U.S. Army momentum—CTO Shyam Sankar noted an Army memo directing organizations to use Palantir’s Vantage platform. ^[10]

Why the stock is wobbling anyway

Two things are colliding:

Expectations vs. valuation. After a near 400% one‑year surge, even solid “beat‑and‑raise” numbers can trigger profit‑taking. One portfolio manager called the growth slowdown to ~61% in Q4 a “cause of concern given the stock’s lofty valuation.” D.A. Davidson countered that results should be enough to support shares at “unprecedentedly high valuation levels.” ^[11]
Macro backdrop. U.S. futures were under pressure this morning on fresh warnings about stretched equity markets, compounding moves in high‑multiple AI names like Palantir. ^[12]

The outlook: what could move PLTR next

Bull case, near term (next 3–6 months):

AI adoption flywheel keeps accelerating (continued AIP rollouts, bootcamps, and conversions).
Defense & public sector tailwinds persist (Army Vantage directive; allied demand for decision‑support software).
Partner ecosystem (e.g., Nvidia) shortens time‑to‑value for customers, sustaining triple‑digit U.S. commercial growth comps. ^[13]

Bear case, near term:

Multiple compression if growth decelerates from the Q3 peak or if risk‑off sentiment intensifies—particularly with a forward P/E near ~246.
Dependence on U.S. demand leaves results sensitive to budget and policy noise; any slowdown in new AIP deployments could sting. ^[14]

What to watch next:

Post‑earnings analyst moves and how consensus price targets shift from today’s mixed stance (broad range across the Street). ^[15]
Deal flow and conversion rates from AIP pilot programs to multi‑year contracts. (Management emphasized continued strength here on the call and in materials.) ^[16]
Stock behavior around key levels: prior close $207.18 and the pre‑market trough near $193; a decisive move above the $207 area would mark a fresh breakout beyond the 52‑week high. ^[17]

Quick valuation & levels snapshot (today)

Forward P/E: ~246 (LSEG). ^[18]
52‑week range: $63.41–$207.47. ^[19]
Consensus 12‑month target (various aggregators): average around $148, with a wide $45–$225 spread—illustrating just how divided the Street remains. ^[20]

Expert voices, in their words

Alex Karp, CEO: Palantir’s growth is “otherworldly,” and the U.S. commercial unit is an “absolute juggernaut.” ^[21]
Blake Anderson, Carson Group: Q4’s slower growth pace is a “cause of concern given the stock’s lofty valuation.” ^[22]
Gil Luria, D.A. Davidson: Results may be sufficient to keep shares at “unprecedentedly high valuation levels.” ^[23]
David Morrison, Trade Nation: The market looks “overbought,” with “a lot of overvalued stuff…concentrated in tech.” ^[24]

Sources & further reading (Nov 4, 2025)

Pre‑market move & live blog context: MarketWatch live coverage and price card. ^[25]
Prior close & volume: WSJ market data for PLTR. ^[26]
52‑week range and key metrics: Reuters company page. ^[27]
Q3 beat, raised guidance, valuation, Nvidia/Army updates: Reuters earnings wrap. ^[28]
CEO commentary (“juggernaut,” “otherworldly”) & segment growth detail: Investopedia earnings coverage. ^[29]
European price action: Reuters Europe market brief. ^[30]
Macro backdrop affecting AI names (including PLTR) & strategist quote: Reuters pre‑market markets note. ^[31]
Consensus target range snapshot: MarketBeat analyst‑target aggregator. ^[32]

Note: This article uses data current to Tuesday, November 4, 2025 (a.k.a. 4.11.2025). Pre‑market quotes change rapidly; always check a real‑time feed before trading. This is not investment advice.

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