PG&E Corporation’s PCG stock finished lower on Friday, November 21, 2025, as investors weighed fresh regulatory uncertainty around California’s undergrounding rules against the utility’s ambitious $73 billion grid-upgrade plan and a solid third-quarter earnings report.
PG&E Corp (NYSE: PCG) closed the session at $15.67, down about 1.1% from Thursday’s close of $15.84. That move leaves PCG stock down roughly 5.5% over the past month and about 22% year-to-date, and about 26% below its level a year ago. [1]
This article looks at how PCG traded today, what’s driving sentiment around PG&E stock, and the key catalysts investors are watching next.
How PCG stock traded on November 21, 2025
According to historical price data for PG&E Corporation: [2]
- Open: $15.98
- High: $15.99
- Low: $15.61
- Close: $15.67
- Change vs. prior close: -$0.17 (about -1.07%)
- Volume: ~44.1 million shares, noticeably above recent daily averages
The stock remains well off its 52‑week high of about $21.72 (set in late November 2024) and above its 52‑week low near $12.97 from mid‑July 2025. At Friday’s close, PCG stock trades roughly 28% below its 52‑week peak and about 21% above its recent low, underscoring how much value the market has already discounted for wildfire and regulatory risk. [3]
With a market capitalization of roughly $34–35 billion and a trailing price‑to‑earnings ratio around 13–14, PG&E screens as a mid‑beta (about 0.7) regulated utility that has been significantly more volatile than many of its peers over the last year. [4]
Earnings recap: Q3 2025 beats, guidance inches higher
Fundamentally, PCG stock is being shaped by a story of improving earnings, large capital needs, and a still‑fragile balance sheet.
In its third‑quarter 2025 results, released on October 23, PG&E reported: [5]
- GAAP EPS: $0.37 vs. $0.27 in Q3 2024
- Non‑GAAP core EPS: $0.50 vs. $0.37 a year earlier
- Non‑GAAP core EPS guidance for 2025: narrowed to $1.49–$1.51
- Initial 2026 guidance:$1.62–$1.66 per share
- Management reaffirmed a target of at least 9% annual core EPS growth from 2027–2030
PG&E also highlighted cost controls, noting it remains on track to exceed its 2% non‑fuel O&M reduction target for 2025. [6]
If PG&E ultimately achieves the mid‑point of its 2026 EPS guidance (around $1.64), Friday’s close implies a forward P/E ratio of roughly 9½ times 2026 earnings, suggesting a discount to many U.S. regulated utilities, which often trade at mid‑teens earnings multiples. That discount reflects the market’s concern about wildfire risk, regulatory outcomes and execution on large capital projects, rather than a lack of near‑term earnings power. (This forward multiple is a rough calculation based on company guidance and today’s closing price, not an official analyst estimate.) [7]
At least one valuation‑focused analysis from Simply Wall St suggests PG&E’s fair value could be in the low $20s per share, implying potential upside if everything goes right — but that view explicitly highlights the company’s “questionable track record” and risk profile. [8]
The $73 billion grid upgrade: AI demand meets wildfire mitigation
One of the biggest strategic drivers behind PG&E stock is the company’s massive long‑term investment program.
On September 29, 2025, PG&E unveiled plans to spend $73 billion by 2030 on transmission and grid upgrades. The goal: handle a surge in electricity demand, particularly from new data centers and AI‑driven workloads, and strengthen the grid against wildfires and extreme weather. [9]
Key elements of the plan include:
- Serving an additional 10 gigawatts of expected electricity demand from data center projects over the next decade
- Building nearly 700 miles of underground power lines and completing 500 miles of wildfire‑safety system upgrades between 2025 and 2026
- Reducing PG&E’s share of California’s $18 billion Wildfire Fund from about 64.2% to 47.85% under Senate Bill 254 — a change that modestly improves the company’s long‑term risk‑sharing profile [10]
From an equity perspective, this huge capital plan is a double‑edged sword:
- On the positive side, large regulated investments typically expand a utility’s rate base, which can support higher earnings and cash flows over time, assuming regulators allow appropriate cost recovery.
- On the negative side, $73 billion is a lot of money: it requires heavy borrowing and leaves PG&E dependent on constructive decisions from state regulators and policymakers.
S&P Global Ratings recently affirmed PG&E’s credit ratings, but projected that capital spending will average almost $13 billion per year from 2025 to 2028, underscoring how levered the company’s future is to that capex program. [11]
Undergrounding and regulation: CPUC delays a key decision
Undergrounding power lines has become the centerpiece of PG&E’s wildfire‑mitigation narrative — and a critical variable for PCG stock.
On November 19, 2025, PG&E announced that it had energized 1,000 miles of undergrounded power lines in high fire‑risk areas. A new poll, cited in the company’s press release, found that nearly 90% of Californians support burying power lines to reduce wildfire risk, and more than 70% want their utility to spend more on undergrounding versus cheaper tactics such as covered conductors or proactive shutoffs. [12]
However, the regulatory framework for this work is far from settled:
- Under Senate Bill 884, the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) must run a program to expedite undergrounding in high‑risk fire zones, guided by a set of statewide rules and guidelines. [13]
- On November 20, 2025, the CPUC was scheduled to vote on Draft Resolution SPD‑37, which would refine the SB 884 undergrounding program and shape how PG&E’s 10‑year plan is evaluated. Instead, the Commission delayed action on SPD‑37 until December 4, according to a summary of the voting meeting results. [14]
- Local media coverage framed this as a delay to PG&E’s request to expedite undergrounding, extending uncertainty over how quickly and on what terms regulators will green‑light the company’s plans. [15]
From the market’s standpoint, this delay matters because it pushes out clarity on timing, scale and cost recovery for PG&E’s undergrounding projects. A supportive CPUC decision in December could be taken as a positive signal for PCG stock; a restrictive or heavily amended framework could reinforce concerns about affordability and rate shock, and potentially limit the pace at which PG&E can grow its rate base.
Wildfire risk and safety progress: the core PCG story
Wildfire liability remains the single biggest overhang for PG&E stock.
PG&E’s equipment has been linked to some of California’s most destructive wildfires over the past decade, leading to tens of billions of dollars in damages, a 2019 bankruptcy, and ongoing scrutiny from regulators and lawmakers. [16]
Recent analyses of PG&E’s risk profile highlight several themes: [17]
- Wildfire liability is still central to the investment case. Even with the state Wildfire Fund, investors fear that a major new incident could trigger large legal and political costs.
- Affordability concerns are rising as utilities spend heavily on hardening and undergrounding; regulators are trying to balance safety improvements with ratepayer impacts.
- PG&E’s earnings growth and predictability are seen as less robust than those of some peers, leading to cautious “show‑me” sentiment among value‑oriented investors.
PG&E argues that the system “has never been safer from wildfire risk,” pointing to concrete milestones:
- 1,000 miles of power lines buried in high fire‑risk areas (the largest undergrounding effort by a U.S. utility), with plans for about 700 additional miles of undergrounding and 500 miles of other wildfire safety upgrades across 2025–2026. [18]
- Deployment of stronger poles and covered conductor in remaining overhead segments. [19]
Whether investors accept this safety narrative will likely depend on how the next few fire seasons unfold — and whether PG&E can avoid the kinds of catastrophic incidents that have defined its recent history.
Valuation and sentiment: a wide gap between bull and bear cases
Market commentary around PCG stock remains sharply divided.
On the more constructive side:
- Some equity research and valuation models still see PG&E as undervalued, with estimated fair values in the high‑teens to low‑20s per share range — well above today’s $15.67 close. [20]
- PG&E’s narrowed 2025 EPS guidance, solid Q3 beat, and 2026 outlook suggest a clearer earnings trajectory than the company had just a few years ago. [21]
- The $73 billion grid plan and AI‑driven load growth could provide long‑duration, regulated earnings growth, assuming regulators ultimately support recovery of those investments. [22]
On the cautious or bearish side:
- GuruFocus’s GF Score framework flags PG&E as a candidate for potential underperformance, citing weak growth prospects and low predictability, even though the company scores reasonably on some financial strength metrics. [23]
- SWOT analysis from Investing.com emphasizes ongoing wildfire and affordability risks, as well as uncertainty over the long‑term design of California’s wildfire funding system. [24]
- Some coverage of PG&E’s recent earnings has characterized the market reaction as muted, suggesting investors are still waiting for more evidence that the improved numbers are durable. [25]
The net result is that PCG stock trades like a classic “show‑me” story: inexpensive on earnings, but with a risk profile that many income‑oriented utility investors find uncomfortable.
Performance snapshot: where PCG stands now
Based on multi‑period performance data: [26]
- 1‑day change (Nov 21): -1.07%
- 7‑day performance: about -5%
- 30‑day performance: roughly -5.5%
- Year‑to‑date: about -22%
- 12‑month performance: about -26%
- 52‑week range: roughly $12.97 – $21.72
Even after its long slide from post‑bankruptcy highs, PG&E’s 5‑year total return is modestly positive, but 10‑ and 15‑year total returns remain deeply negative, reflecting the cumulative impact of wildfire crises and restructuring on long‑term shareholders. [27]
Key catalysts to watch for PCG stock
For investors tracking PCG stock after today’s close, several upcoming events and themes stand out:
- CPUC decision on SPD‑37 and SB 884 implementation
- The rescheduled December 4 vote on undergrounding guidelines will be a key moment for PCG, likely clarifying how quickly the company can roll out its 10‑year undergrounding plan and under what cost‑recovery structure. [28]
- Further updates on the $73 billion grid investment plan
- Details on phasing, funding mix (debt vs. equity), and regulatory treatment will shape PG&E’s balance‑sheet risk and long‑term return profile. [29]
- Wildfire seasons and safety metrics
- Incident reports, enforcement actions, and third‑party assessments of PG&E’s wildfire‑mitigation progress will continue to influence how much risk premium investors demand. [30]
- Rate and affordability debates
- As undergrounding and hardening programs move forward, the tension between safety and bill impacts will remain a central focus for regulators, ratepayer advocates and investors alike. [31]
- Future earnings reports and guidance updates
- Each quarter will be a check‑in on whether PG&E can deliver on its promised 9% EPS growth trajectory without unexpected legal or regulatory shocks. [32]
Bottom line
For Friday, November 21, 2025, PCG stock closed slightly lower, extending what has been a difficult year for PG&E shareholders despite visibly improving earnings and a massive, growth‑oriented grid‑investment plan. The stock’s discounted valuation reflects a market that remains unconvinced the company has fully moved past its wildfire and regulatory baggage.
If the upcoming CPUC decisions on undergrounding and the implementation of SB 884 are constructive, they could go a long way toward narrowing the gap between PG&E’s earnings story and its stock price. Until then, PCG is likely to remain a volatile, high‑profile name on many investors’ watchlists rather than a straightforward defensive utility holding.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Always do your own research or consult a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions.
References
1. finance.yahoo.com, 2. finance.yahoo.com, 3. www.financecharts.com, 4. www.marketwatch.com, 5. s1.q4cdn.com, 6. s1.q4cdn.com, 7. s1.q4cdn.com, 8. simplywall.st, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.spglobal.com, 12. investor.pgecorp.com, 13. www.cpuc.ca.gov, 14. www.energycentral.com, 15. www.nbcbayarea.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.investing.com, 18. s1.q4cdn.com, 19. www.pge.com, 20. simplywall.st, 21. s1.q4cdn.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.gurufocus.com, 24. www.investing.com, 25. finance.yahoo.com, 26. www.financecharts.com, 27. www.financecharts.com, 28. www.energycentral.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. investor.pgecorp.com, 31. www.prnewswire.com, 32. s1.q4cdn.com
