Pfizer Stock 2025: 7% Dividend, Obesity Gamble, and Wall Street’s Verdict

Stock Price & Performance: Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) stock closed around $23.60 on September 25, 2025 – down roughly 9% year-to-date and about 18% lower than a year ago. Shares trade near the lower end of their 52-week range ($20.92 – $30.43) ^[1], reflecting post-pandemic headwinds.
High Dividend Yield: The stock’s slump has pushed Pfizer’s dividend yield above 7%, with a quarterly payout of $0.43 ($1.72 annualized). At ~7.3%, this yield is more than double peers like Merck (~3%) or J&J (~3%) and is supported by a manageable ~60% payout ratio on 2025 earnings estimates ^[2].
Valuation: Pfizer trades at only ~7–8× forward earnings ^[3] – a deep discount to the pharma industry’s ~14× average ^[4]. Its PEG ratio (P/E to growth) is ~0.8, versus ~1.5 for large-cap pharma peers ^[5], highlighting a bargain valuation if earnings stabilize.
Recent Developments: In September 2025, Pfizer announced a $7.3 billion acquisition of Metsera, a biotech with four obesity drug candidates. It also plans to showcase data from 45+ oncology studies (incl. five late-breakers) at the upcoming ESMO 2025 cancer conference. Additionally, Pfizer reported robust Phase 3 results for its new COVID-19 vaccine formula (adapted to variant LP.8.1), reinforcing a recent FDA approval.
Legal & Regulatory News: Pfizer faces a legal test on Sept. 29, 2025, with a court hearing on whether lawsuits over its Depo-Provera contraceptive shot (alleged to cause rare brain tumors) can proceed or are federally pre-empted. Meanwhile, partner Arvinas announced they will seek a third-party to commercialize their co-developed breast cancer drug vepdegestrant, currently under FDA review, signaling a strategic pivot in that collaboration.
Financial Outlook: Despite declining COVID-19 revenues, Pfizer delivered strong Q2 2025 results (revenue $14.7B, +10% YoY) and raised its full-year EPS guidance. 2025 sales are still forecast around $61–64B – essentially flat from 2024 – as new products aim to offset the COVID cliff. Upcoming Q3 earnings (Nov. 4, 2025) will be closely watched, with consensus EPS ~$0.79 for the quarter ^[6]. Pfizer is aggressively cutting costs (targeting $4B by 2025) ^[7] to protect margins and fund its pipeline.
Analyst Sentiment: The Street consensus on PFE is Hold with an average 12-month price target around $29–30, implying ~25% upside from current levels ^[8]. Analysts highlight Pfizer’s unusually low valuation and high yield as a potential opportunity, while noting risks from patent expirations and drug-price reforms ^[9]. Some commentators even call Pfizer a “hated” stock that now “looks like an obesity bargain”, given its cheap entry into the booming weight-loss market.

Stock Price and Recent Performance

Pfizer’s stock has struggled in 2025, hovering near multi-year lows. At ~$23.60 per share in late September, PFE has declined about 9% since January, underperforming the S&P 500 (which is up modestly) and lagging the broader healthcare sector. Over the past 12 months, the stock is down roughly 18%. The 52-week high was $30.43, and shares now sit not far above their year’s low of $20.92 ^[10]. By market capitalization (~$134 billion), Pfizer remains one of the world’s largest pharmaceutical companies, but its valuation has compressed significantly from pandemic-era peaks.

This underperformance stems largely from the post-pandemic “hangover.” Pfizer’s once record-breaking COVID-19 product sales have dropped sharply, creating a tough comparison and denting investor sentiment. In 2022, Pfizer’s COVID vaccine (Comirnaty) and antiviral pill (Paxlovid) brought in a combined $37.8 billion in revenue; by 2024 that fell to $12.5 billion. Wall Street expects Pfizer’s total earnings per share to have more than halved from $6.58 in 2022 to about $3.05 in 2025. This “COVID cliff” and concerns over upcoming patent expirations have weighed heavily on the stock’s performance.

Peer Comparison: Notably, Pfizer’s 2025 stock slump is not unique in Big Pharma, but it’s more pronounced in yield and value. Rival Merck (MRK) has seen its stock slide ~20% year-to-date amid worries about its Keytruda cancer drug’s future, whereas Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) – a more diversified healthcare giant – is up over 20% in 2025 after spinning off its consumer division and navigating talc litigation. J&J’s higher P/E (~15–16x) and 3% dividend yield reflect a steadier profile. Moderna (MRNA), by contrast, has no dividend and remains a volatile pure-play on mRNA technology. Moderna’s shares have tumbled from their pandemic highs as its COVID vaccine demand waned; the company recently slashed its 2025 revenue forecast to just $1.5–$2.5 billion ^[11] ^[12] – a fraction of Pfizer’s expected $63+ billion – highlighting Pfizer’s broader product base. In short, Pfizer’s stock is behaving like a distressed value play (low P/E, high yield), whereas some peers command premiums for growth or stability. This sets the stage for debate: is PFE a value trap or an undervalued turnaround story?

Recent News and Catalysts

Obesity Drug Acquisition: Betting on Weight-Loss Boom

One of Pfizer’s biggest news items in late September 2025 was its move into the red-hot obesity drug arena. On Sept. 22, Pfizer announced a deal to acquire Metsera, Inc. (NASDAQ: MTSR) – a clinical-stage biotech specializing in weight-loss therapies – for $4.9 billion upfront (at $47.50 per share) plus up to $22.50 per share in contingent payments, totaling $7.3 billion if milestones are met. Metsera brings four different obesity and metabolic disease drug candidates, spanning both oral and injectable “incretin” hormone analogs and other novel approaches. Pfizer’s CEO Albert Bourla framed the acquisition as a way to “re-enter a mega-market” the company doesn’t want to miss, especially after Pfizer discontinued its own oral GLP-1 obesity drug program earlier due to safety concerns.

This deal thrusts Pfizer into direct competition with the leaders of the obesity drug boom – namely Novo Nordisk (maker of Ozempic®/Wegovy®) and Eli Lilly (maker of Mounjaro®). Those companies’ breakthrough GLP-1 agonist drugs have shown dramatic weight loss in patients and have seen surging demand, driving their stocks to all-time highs. By contrast, Pfizer’s stock has languished, so this acquisition is viewed as a bold attempt to play catch-up. Analysts are divided on the move: some note that Pfizer is late to a crowded field with no guarantee of success (Metsera’s drugs are mostly in mid-stage trials), while others argue Pfizer paid a reasonable price for a shot at a multi-billion-dollar market. “Pfizer’s latest deal could make it the budget entry-point to the weight loss bonanza,” observed the Wall Street Journal, pointing out that Pfizer offers a cheap way to invest in obesity treatments relative to its more expensive rivals. In other words, investors bullish on obesity drugs might see PFE as a value alternative, since its stock hasn’t yet priced in any obesity windfall.

However, execution will be key. Pfizer will need to advance Metsera’s candidates through Phase 3 trials successfully to compete with Novo and Lilly. The company’s prior attempt at an oral GLP-1 (danuglipron) had setbacks with elevated liver enzymes, illustrating the risks in this area. Still, Pfizer signaled confidence: it was willing to wager over $7 billion and noted that the deal “brings deep expertise” in incretin biology to complement Pfizer’s own capabilities. Investors will be watching for updates on these obesity programs in 2026 as a key narrative for Pfizer’s future growth.

Oncology Momentum: ESMO Conference and Pipeline Progress

On the positive side, Pfizer’s core business in oncology is showing strong momentum, and the company is broadcasting that loudly. On Sept. 25, Pfizer announced it will present data from more than 45 studies at the European Society for Medical Oncology (ESMO) Congress 2025 in October. This includes five late-breaking presentations and even a slot in the prestigious Presidential Symposium – indicating that some of Pfizer’s results are considered practice-changing. According to Pfizer’s Oncology Chief, Jeff Legos, the data will demonstrate how “earlier interventions with our innovative medicines have the potential to deliver greater impact to even more patients”. In other words, expect updates on Pfizer’s next-generation cancer drugs, including those gained from its recent $43 billion acquisition of Seagen (which closed in late 2023). Key assets likely to feature are Antibody-Drug Conjugates (ADCs) like Padcev® (enfortumab vedotin) and Adcetris® – cutting-edge cancer therapies that Pfizer now owns via Seagen.

In fact, Pfizer has already reported notable cancer trial successes this year. For example, a late August press release highlighted that Padcev (an ADC) combined with Merck’s Keytruda significantly improved survival in certain early-stage bladder cancer patients when given before and after surgery. This was a Phase 3 study showing a survival benefit – exactly the kind of result that can expand a drug’s usage and revenue potential. Pfizer also continues to advance novel targeted therapies (like ARV-471, a protein degrader for breast cancer developed with Arvinas), though in that case, as noted, Pfizer and Arvinas just decided to out-license vepdegestrant (ARV-471) to another company for commercialization. That move suggests the partners see better prospects letting a third party market the drug if it’s approved, possibly due to a crowded breast cancer landscape. Nonetheless, Pfizer’s overall cancer portfolio is broad and growing, spanning breast, urothelial, prostate, blood cancers and more. Oncology is central to Pfizer’s post-2025 strategy, and positive clinical news – like multiple ESMO presentations and over a dozen FDA approvals in 2024 (many for cancer products) ^[13] – help bolster investor confidence that Pfizer can innovate beyond its legacy blockbusters.

COVID-19 and Vaccines: Updated Booster Rollout

Even as COVID-19 revenues shrink, Pfizer is still in the game with updated vaccines. In early September, Pfizer and BioNTech announced positive Phase 3 trial results for their new COVID-19 vaccine formulation adapted to variant LP.8.1 (a then-circulating strain). In a trial of older adults and at-risk individuals, the updated 2025-2026 formula showed a ≥4-fold increase in neutralizing antibodies against the LP.8.1 subvariant. These findings reinforced the FDA’s recent approval of Pfizer’s 2025-2026 COVID booster, which was authorized for use in high-risk groups. In fact, on August 27 the FDA gave full approval for Pfizer/BioNTech’s Comirnaty® vaccine for adults 65+ and at-risk individuals 5–64, aligning with this data. While COVID vaccine sales are much lower now than during the pandemic’s peak, Pfizer still expects about $5 billion from Comirnaty and $5.5 billion from Paxlovid in 2025 ^[14] ^[15]. These products remain a meaningful (if smaller) revenue stream and could see upticks if new variants drive booster uptake.

Beyond COVID, Pfizer launched Abrysvo, its new RSV (respiratory syncytial virus) vaccine, in late 2023/2024 for both infants (via maternal immunization) and older adults. Initial uptake of RSV vaccines industry-wide has been slower than companies hoped, due in part to narrower CDC recommendations ^[16]. Still, Pfizer is competing with GSK and Moderna in this new RSV vaccine market and any early sales figures or guidance on Abrysvo will interest investors as we head into the winter virus season.

Legal Matters: Depo-Provera Litigation

Pfizer’s expansive business occasionally faces legal challenges, and a notable one is unfolding around Depo-Provera, a long-approved contraceptive injection. As of September 2025, Pfizer is fighting a consolidated multidistrict litigation (MDL) alleging that Depo-Provera caused intracranial meningioma tumors in some women. The number of lawsuits has swelled to over 1,300 after studies (including a March 2024 BMJ study) found women using Depo-Provera had a significantly higher risk of these rare brain tumors. Pfizer’s defense centers on “federal preemption” – essentially arguing that because the FDA previously rejected adding a tumor warning to Depo-Provera’s label, Pfizer cannot be sued under state failure-to-warn laws. A critical hearing is set for Sept. 29, 2025 in federal court (Pensacola, FL) to hear arguments on this preemption issue.

The outcome of that hearing could be important: if the judge sides with Pfizer, many claims might be thrown out; if not, the litigation proceeds toward trials. Plaintiffs’ attorneys (e.g. Levin Papantonio’s team) argue Pfizer “failed to provide the FDA with the full picture” on Depo-Provera’s risks and thus should not escape liability. They emphasize that “thousands of women living with meningiomas deserve the chance to have these issues considered by the courts.” From an investor standpoint, this case is a reputational and financial watch item, but not (yet) a major threat to Pfizer’s finances. It’s reminiscent of past pharma product litigations. Pfizer has weathered similar storms (hormone therapy, Chantix, etc.), often settling or winning on legal defenses. The company has not signaled that any potential liability here would be material, but it’s a situation to monitor through 2026.

Financial Performance and Outlook

Recent earnings: Pfizer’s underlying business performance in 2025 has been mixed, but Q2 provided a ray of hope. The company reported second-quarter 2025 revenues of $14.7 billion, representing 10% operational growth year-over-year. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $0.78 for Q2, comfortably above analyst estimates and up ~30% from the prior year. Strength in new products and non-COVID franchises helped offset the expected steep decline in COVID vaccine and therapy sales. As a result, Pfizer reaffirmed its full-year 2025 revenue guidance of $61.0–$64.0 billion and raised its full-year adjusted EPS guidance by $0.10 to a range of $2.90–$3.10. CFO David Denton noted this reflects management’s “confidence in our ability to execute” and deliver for shareholders despite headwinds.

These numbers imply that 2025 earnings will be roughly flat versus 2024 (Pfizer earned ~$3.11 EPS in 2024). Essentially, Pfizer expects to hit a bottom in 2025 and stabilize, as new product revenues ramp up to replace the evaporated COVID windfall. Notably, the company has implemented aggressive cost-cutting to protect its profitability. Pfizer is on track to achieve $4.0 billion in annual cost savings by 2025 (and $7+ billion by 2027) through restructuring and efficiency moves. These savings are important to support margins and fund the hefty R&D and M&A spending Pfizer has undertaken.

Upcoming Q3 results: Pfizer will report third-quarter earnings on November 4, 2025, and has invited the public to listen to its webcast with analysts. The street will be looking for any updates to 2025 guidance at that time. According to Zacks, the consensus forecast for Q3 is around $0.79 in EPS (down ~25% from $1.06 in Q3 2024) on revenues of about $17.2 billion (down ~3% year-on-year) ^[17]. These declines reflect the tough comparison to last year’s COVID product revenues. For the full year, analysts expect Pfizer to earn roughly $3.14 EPS on $63.8B in sales ^[18], essentially flat versus 2024 (which is viewed positively given the anticipated COVID trough). Any surprises – positive or negative – in Pfizer’s Q3 results could move the stock given its depressed sentiment.

Balance sheet and capital allocation: Pfizer remains financially strong, though debt has risen after recent acquisitions (Seagen, etc.). It continues to generate healthy cash flow, which management is allocating in shareholder-friendly ways and pipeline investments. The dividend is a top priority: Pfizer declared a $0.43/share dividend for Q3 (paid in September) – its 347th consecutive quarterly dividend – and has raised the payout annually for 14 years straight (since 2009) ^[19]. In 2024, Pfizer paid about $7.1B in dividends ^[20]; notably, that was covered in part by one-time gains (like $6.9B from selling its Haleon stake after spinning off consumer health) ^[21]. Going forward, management insists the current dividend is sustainable. Even with lower COVID income, Pfizer’s cash flow plus cost cuts and asset sales (if needed) should support the ~$8+ billion per year dividend commitment. At the updated EPS forecast, the dividend payout ratio is ~60% ^[22] – high, but not alarmingly so for a pharma company. CFO Dave Denton has publicly emphasized commitment to the dividend, and Pfizer’s board clearly knows many investors hold PFE for its income stream ^[23].

It’s worth noting Pfizer also continues to invest heavily in R&D (over $10 billion annually) and bolt-on acquisitions (spending nearly $70B on deals in 2022–2025). While this has pressured near-term earnings, it’s aimed at fueling long-term growth. The company’s pipeline spans over 120 programs including 25+ in Phase 3 ^[24], and management projects a significant revenue lift from new launches by 2030. The big question for investors is whether these investments will pay off in time to replace revenues from drugs facing patent loss around 2025–2030 (like Eliquis in 2028, Ibrance in 2027, etc.). Thus far, Pfizer’s financial guidance suggests cautious optimism – they are essentially treading water through the trough, with a return to growth anticipated in the second half of the decade.

Analyst Opinions and Market Sentiment

Wall Street Ratings: The consensus analyst view on Pfizer is lukewarm but with a hint of upside. Among roughly a dozen analysts tracked, the average rating is “Hold” and 12-month price targets average about $29–30 per share ^[25]. That target implies ~24% upside from current levels – a reflection of how far Pfizer’s stock has fallen. Price targets range from the mid-$20s up to the low-$30s, indicating most analysts see limited downside and some see significant upside if Pfizer executes well. For example, MarketBeat reports a high target of $33 and a low of $24 among 18 analyst forecasts. In general, no one on the Street is outright bearish with a sell rating – but many are in “wait-and-see” mode given Pfizer’s transitional period.

Valuation views: A common refrain is that Pfizer looks extremely cheap on an objective basis – the stock’s ~7× forward P/E is roughly half the pharma industry average ^[26], and even below many “slow-growth” utility stocks. “Pfizer trades at a forward P/E of 7.7, a discount compared to the industry’s 14.1,” noted Zacks analysts, who currently rank PFE as a Hold ^[27]. Likewise, The Motley Fool pointed out Pfizer’s combination of 7% yield and single-digit P/E is “rarely seen outside of distressed situations”, yet Pfizer is not in distress – it’s still guiding for over $60B in sales and has many growth drivers. This disconnect has led some market commentators to argue Pfizer is a deep value buy. For instance, 24/7 Wall St. dubbed Pfizer an “ultra-high yield stock” at a “19% discount” to its 52-week high, noting that the stock has plummeted 50% from its levels three years ago. They conclude that for patient investors, Pfizer could be a steal if its pipeline delivers, with possibly 20%+ upside by 2026 as new products gain traction.

Bull vs. Bear sentiment: Bulls argue that the market has overreacted, effectively “giving up” on Pfizer’s story. They point to Pfizer’s strong balance sheet, diverse product lineup, and numerous pipeline opportunities (e.g. a potential oral GLP-1 drug by 2026, new cancer meds, vaccines, etc.) ^[28]. The dividend yield north of 7% pays investors to wait, and management’s recent guidance raise suggests the business may be turning the corner. As one analyst quipped, “Pfizer’s valuation suggests a market that has given up” – with PFE’s EV/EBITDA around 9 and price-to-sales ~2, it’s priced like a no-growth company. If Pfizer even modestly exceeds expectations or secures a big new drug approval, the stock could re-rate higher.

On the bearish side, skeptics caution that low valuations can be value traps. They highlight Pfizer’s looming patent cliffs in the next 2–3 years (e.g. blood thinner Eliquis, which makes up ~14% of revenue, loses exclusivity in 2028 ^[29]; cancer drug Ibrance around 2027). Also, drug pricing reforms like the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act will empower Medicare to negotiate prices on some of Pfizer’s top drugs later this decade, potentially squeezing margins ^[30]. There is concern that Pfizer’s torrent of deals – spending tens of billions on acquisitions like Seagen, Biohaven, Arena, and now Metsera – may not yield proportional returns if those pipelines disappoint. Integration of Seagen, in particular, is a big task. Market sentiment has also been hurt by the “COVID comedown” – many generalist investors rotated out of Pfizer after the pandemic, and it may take time (and multiple quarters of solid earnings) to lure them back.

Right now, sentiment could be described as cautiously skeptical. Pfizer is widely viewed as having a lot to prove, but with substantial potential if it proves even a portion of the bull case. Notably, some high-profile financial commentators have started to warm up to PFE at these levels. The Wall Street Journal’s Heard on the Street column recently called Pfizer “This Hated Stock [that] Suddenly Looks Like an Obesity Bargain,” arguing that Pfizer’s beaten-down shares offer a “cheap ticket” into the weight-loss drug boom after the Metsera deal. That reflects a contrarian take: the idea that extreme pessimism has created an opportunity.

Conclusion and Outlook

As of late September 2025, Pfizer Inc. finds itself at a crossroads. The stock is cheap, the dividend is rich, and big challenges (patent expirations, COVID declines) are largely understood. The company’s response – reinvesting aggressively in R&D and acquisitions – is beginning to show tangible results in the pipeline and in modestly improved guidance. In the coming months, investors will be watching for follow-through: delivering on earnings targets, smoothly integrating Seagen and other buys, and advancing key drugs (like the obesity candidates, oncology launches, and a potential new RSV/COVID vaccine market).

Pfizer’s management insists that the pieces are in place for a return to growth after 2025. They cite a wave of product launches (the company notched over a dozen FDA approvals in 2024 alone ^[31]) and forecast ~$20 billion in incremental revenue by 2030 from new products and recent acquisitions. If those forecasts hold true, Pfizer’s current valuation would indeed look like a bargain. On the other hand, if pipeline bets falter or macro pressures (pricing, litigation) mount, the stock’s high dividend may not be enough to prop it up – though importantly, Pfizer’s dividend has a strong safety cushion for now ^[32].

For now, Wall Street’s consensus is that Pfizer will muddle through the next year with flat sales and earnings, then hopefully re-accelerate. The stock’s total return potential is attractive given the combination of ~7% yield plus possible capital appreciation if sentiment improves. In summary, Pfizer in 2025 offers a classic value-investor dilemma: a pharma titan with formidable assets, trading at historically low multiples due to near-term pessimism. Whether PFE is a “steal” or a “trap” will depend on how well the company executes in converting its pipeline and recent deals (like Metsera) into the next generation of blockbuster drugs. Investors and analysts will be closely analyzing every data readout and earnings update – starting with the Q3 results on Nov. 4 – for signs that this pharmaceutical giant can indeed regain its stride.

Sources: Pfizer press releases; Yahoo Finance/StockAnalysis data; Zacks/Nasdaq analysis ^[33] ^[34]; Motley Fool and WSJ commentary; Reuters and Business Wire news; 24/7 Wall St. and other financial outlets ^[35] ^[36].