Rigetti Computing (RGTI) Stock Faces Quantum Reality Check: Cramer’s “Sell Half” Call, Bubble Fears and Q3 Fallout – 14 November 2025

Quantum darling Rigetti Computing, Inc. (NASDAQ: RGTI) is having one of the wildest years on Wall Street – and today, 14 November 2025, the story took another sharp turn.

After a nearly 2,000% surge over the past 12 months, Rigetti’s share price has now collapsed about 60% from its mid‑October peak, as a wave of new headlines hits the stock, sector-wide bubble fears grow, and high‑profile voices urge caution. ^[1]

Below is a structured roundup of all the key Rigetti news pieces dated 14 November 2025, plus the context investors need around Q3 earnings, valuation, and the broader quantum computing selloff.

Note: This article is for information and education only and is not financial advice.

1. Where Rigetti Stock Stands Today

As of late morning U.S. trading on 14 November 2025, Rigetti shares have been bouncing around the mid‑$20s, with:

• Intraday range: roughly $23–$27 today ^[2]
• Previous close: about $25.20 ^[3]
• 52‑week range: approximately $1.28 (low) to $58.15 (high) ^[4]
• Market cap: around $8–8.5 billion at current levels ^[5]

According to technical commentary from Verified Investing, RGTI has fallen about 60% between 15 October and 14 November, as speculative “retail favorite” names get hit hardest in the current correction. ^[6]

Yet even after that drop, Rigetti remains up massively year‑on‑year, with a Motley Fool piece noting that the stock has still gained nearly 2,000% over the last 12 months. ^[7]

2. Today’s Big Headline: Jim Cramer Says “Sell Half” of Rigetti

One of the most widely shared talking points today comes from Jim Cramer’s latest comments, summarized by Insider Monkey and highlighted on Finviz. ^[8]

Cramer’s key points on Rigetti (RGTI):

• He calls Rigetti a “hyper‑speculative” quantum name that has “come out of nowhere,” going from around $0.15 a year ago to the high‑$20s, and even touching ~$58 last month before the crash. ^[9]
• He notes Rigetti still has declining revenues and large losses, despite the huge share price move. ^[10]
• His suggested tactic: “Sell half” and treat the rest as “house money.”
  In other words, lock in some profits after the parabolic rally while still keeping upside exposure if the quantum story works out. ^[11]

Cramer frames Rigetti as emblematic of what he calls “the year of magical investing” – an era of speculative bets that he believes is now drawing to a close.

For traders and headline‑driven investors, this kind of televised commentary can reinforce the sense that Rigetti has shifted from momentum darling to risk‑management problem.

3. Nasdaq/Motley Fool: “Quantum Stocks Could Plunge 50% (or More) in 2026”

A Motley Fool article syndicated via Nasdaq today carries an even starker warning:

“Prediction: Quantum Computing Stocks IonQ, Rigetti Computing, and D-Wave Quantum Will Plunge 50% (or More) in 2026.” ^[12]

Key takeaways from that piece:

• Quantum pure‑plays have gone vertical:
  IonQ, Rigetti, D‑Wave Quantum and Quantum Computing Inc. have rallied 123% to 2,090% over the past year. ^[13]
• But valuations look extreme:
  Using price‑to‑sales (P/S), the article cites trailing multiples around:
  • IonQ: 172x sales
  • Rigetti: 1,057x sales
  • D‑Wave: 354x sales
  • Quantum Computing Inc.: 5,983x sales ^[14]
• Losses and dilution risk:
  RGTI’s operating loss in Q3 grew to about $20.5 million, and the article argues that continued R&D burn will likely require more equity or warrant offerings, diluting existing shareholders. ^[15]
• The author draws parallels to past tech bubbles (dot‑com, genome decoding, blockchain, metaverse), pointing out that investors routinely overestimate how quickly “next‑big‑thing” technologies become commercially mature. ^[16]

The bottom line from that perspective: even after the recent crash, quantum valuations are still in “bubble territory”, and a 50%+ drawdown in 2026 is framed as a realistic scenario if expectations reset.

4. Benzinga: “$30 Billion Wiped Out – Quantum’s Dot‑Com Moment?”

Benzinga added more fuel to the skepticism this morning with a piece titled:

“$30 Billion Wiped Out: Is This Quantum’s Dot‑Com Moment?” ^[17]

The article notes:

• IonQ, Rigetti, D‑Wave and Quantum Computing Inc. have shed over $30 billion in market value in a matter of weeks.
• Those stocks have fallen 40–55% from their euphoric mid‑October highs. ^[18]
• For Rigetti, the article highlights:
  • Heavy reliance on government contracts and grants, and
  • The need to prove execution on its roadmap to be considered a long‑term “survivor” rather than just a speculative science project. ^[19]

Importantly, Benzinga emphasizes that this selloff isn’t only about Q3 numbers; it’s about the market re‑rating an entire theme now that timelines for broad commercialization look more distant than many bulls hoped.

5. MarketBeat: Q3 Miss, DARPA Setback and a “Moderate Buy” Consensus

5.1 Q3 2025 results in focus

Rigetti’s Q3 2025 earnings, released on 10 November, are still driving much of today’s analysis. According to a StockTitan summary of the company’s official release: ^[20]

• Revenue: about $1.9 million for Q3
• Operating loss:$20.5 million
• GAAP net loss: roughly $201 million
• Non‑GAAP net loss: about $10.7 million, or ($0.03) per share
• Cash & investments:
  • $558.9 million as of 30 September 2025
  • Approximately $600 million as of 6 November 2025, aided by $46.5 million of warrant exercises

On the technology and commercial side, the same release and subsequent coverage highlighted: ^[21]

• Purchase orders totalling ~$5.7 million for two 9‑qubit Novera systems, upgradeable to more qubits, with deliveries expected in H1 2026.
• A three‑year, $5.8 million contract with the U.S. Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) and QphoX to advance superconducting quantum networking.
• Partnerships and initiatives with:
  • Montana State University (MSU), including an on‑premises Rigetti system.
  • India’s C‑DAC, exploring hybrid quantum systems and co‑development.
  • NVIDIA’s NVQLink platform for AI–quantum integration.

5.2 “Q3 Miss Reveals Quantum Funding and Timing Pressures”

Today, MarketBeat published a detailed think‑piece titled “Rigetti’s Q3 Miss Reveals Quantum Funding and Timing Pressures.” ^[22]

Key insights from that article:

• Revenue miss, but EPS beat:
  • Q3 revenue of $1.95 million vs. $2.17 million expected, down 18.1% year‑over‑year. ^[23]
  • Non‑GAAP loss per share of ($0.03), beating the ($0.05) consensus. ^[24]
• DARPA setback:
  Rigetti was involved in Stage A of the DARPA Quantum Benchmarking Initiative but was not initially selected for Stage B, which focuses on “quantum advantage” demonstrations. This means lost non‑dilutive funding and prestige, at least for now, though the company says dialogue with DARPA is ongoing. ^[25]
• Roadmap vs. competition:
  The article reiterates Rigetti’s roadmap:
  • 100+‑qubit chiplet‑based system with ~99.5% two‑qubit fidelity by the end of 2025
  • 150+ qubits at ~99.7% fidelity by end‑2026
  • 1,000+ qubits at ~99.8% fidelity by end‑2027 ^[26]
    But it also notes that this puts Rigetti roughly two to three years behind bigger players like IBM and IonQ, even though Rigetti’s in‑house fab could help narrow that gap. ^[27]
• Speculative profile:
  MarketBeat characterizes RGTI as a high‑risk, speculative stock where traders and short interest (still over 12% of float) play a major role in price swings, while meaningful commercial profitability remains years away. ^[28]

5.3 Institutional positioning and analyst ratings

A separate MarketBeat instant alert today focuses on institutional holdings: ^[29]

• Mitsubishi UFJ Asset Management cut its Rigetti position by 23.1% in Q2, ending with 298,100 shares worth about $3.54 million, or roughly 0.10% of the company.
• At the same time, Vanguard, Charles Schwab, Northern Trust, Bank of New York Mellon and Nuveen all increased or established positions, and about 35% of RGTI’s float is institutionally owned.
• On the analyst front:
  • Benchmark trimmed its price target from $50 to $40 but kept a “buy” rating.
  • B. Riley cut its target from $42 to $35 and shifted to “neutral.”
  • Needham previously raised its target to $18 with a “buy”, while other firms such as Williams Trading and Alliance Global Partners also remain positive. ^[30]
• In total, MarketBeat counts:
  • 5 Buy ratings,
  • 1 Hold,
  • 1 Sell,
    giving Rigetti an overall “Moderate Buy” consensus with an average target near $25.43 – almost exactly where shares trade today. ^[31]

6. Hedge Funds Rotate: Palantir vs. Rigetti

Another article dated today – “Palantir Stock vs. Rigetti Computing Stock: Billionaires Buy One and Sell the Other” – highlights how some billionaire‑run hedge funds have been repositioning. ^[32]

According to the summary:

• These managers, who’ve beaten the S&P 500 over the last three years, added to positions in Palantir while trimming or exiting Rigetti during the second quarter.
• The implied message: some sophisticated investors may prefer a more established AI analytics name (Palantir) over a pre‑commercial quantum pure‑play like Rigetti at current valuations.

While we don’t have full 403‑blocked details of the article, the headline and snippets align with broader flows: capital rotating from hyper‑speculative quantum names to more mature AI leaders.

7. CEO’s “$11 Million Warning” to Wall Street

Yesterday’s widely circulated Motley Fool article “Rigetti Computing’s CEO Sent an $11 Million Warning to Wall Street” also continues to echo in today’s discussions. ^[33]

From the available summaries:

• The piece notes that CEO Subodh Kulkarni executed a transaction valued at about $11 million involving his Rigetti stake after a major share‑price surge and before another big move, which the article frames as a “warning” sign that expectations may be ahead of fundamentals. ^[34]
• It also emphasizes that, even after the recent pullback, Rigetti is still up almost 2,000% over the last year, outpacing megacap names like Nvidia and Palantir. ^[35]

We don’t have the full transaction breakdown (e.g., exact share count, whether it was purely a sale or option exercise), so any deeper interpretation would be speculative. What is clear is that the headline has contributed to a “if the CEO is cashing out, should I?” narrative among traders.

8. Technical Voices: Rigetti as the Poster Child of Retail Hype

In today’s Verified Investing “Trading Game Plan” recap, technical analyst Gareth Soloway uses Rigetti as an example of the dangers of chasing parabolic moves: ^[36]

• He notes that RGTI has dropped 60% between 15 October and 14 November, after social media hype had retail traders piling in at $45–$55 per share.
• The article argues that a logic‑based trader avoids such setups where the downside risk (60% drawdown) massively outweighs realistic upside, especially once a stock is extremely extended above key technical levels.

This reinforces the idea that Rigetti has become a case study in sentiment excess, not just a story about quantum technology.

9. The Underlying Business: Quantum Roadmap vs. Commercial Reality

Amid all the noise, Rigetti is still building real technology. Based on company disclosures and third‑party summaries: ^[37]

• Core business:
  Rigetti designs superconducting quantum integrated circuits and provides access to its systems via cloud‑based quantum computing‑as‑a‑service (QCaaS), plus on‑premises systems under the Novera™ brand.
• Chiplet architecture:
  Its technology strategy relies on modular 9‑qubit “chiplets” that can be tiled to form larger processors. The 36‑qubit Cepheus‑1 system is an example of this approach. ^[38]
• Roadmap milestones:
  • >100 qubits with ~99.5% two‑qubit fidelity by end‑2025
  • >150 qubits with ~99.7% fidelity by end‑2026
  • >1,000 qubits with ~99.8% fidelity by end‑2027 ^[39]
• Cash runway:
  With ~$600 million in cash and investments post‑warrant exercises, Rigetti appears to have a multi‑year runway to pursue this roadmap, albeit with continued operating losses. ^[40]

The tension the market is wrestling with now is simple:

Can Rigetti convert that roadmap and cash pile into sustainable, growing revenue before dilution and competition erode the upside?

10. Key Risks the Market Is Pricing In

From today’s coverage and recent analysis, several major risk themes emerge:

1. Valuation risk
   • Price‑to‑sales ratios in the hundreds to over a thousand are difficult to justify for a company with sub‑$2 million quarterly revenue and large recurring losses. ^[41]
2. Execution & timing risk
   • Missing DARPA QBI Stage B is seen as both a funding loss and a credibility hit in the race toward quantum advantage. ^[42]
   • Larger players like IBM and IonQ may be one to several years ahead on key milestones. ^[43]
3. Funding and dilution risk
   • Continued R&D burn means Rigetti may rely on future equity, warrant or convertible offerings, which can dilute existing shareholders. ^[44]
4. Sector‑wide bubble risk
   • Both Motley Fool and Benzinga explicitly compare the current quantum cycle to the dot‑com era, suggesting that the story (hype) has moved faster than the technology and that more downside could accompany a broader market or sector re‑rating. ^[45]
5. Sentiment and technical risk
   • High retail interest, high short interest and huge volatility can cut both ways – producing sharp rallies and violent drawdowns, often disconnected from fundamentals.

11. What Could Go Right for Rigetti?

Despite the flood of cautionary headlines, today’s coverage also points to reasons some investors and analysts still see upside:

• Technology differentiation:
  Rigetti’s chiplet architecture and in‑house fab are unique among quantum pure‑plays and could speed iteration if the roadmap stays on track. ^[46]
• Strong cash position:
  Nearly $600 million in cash and investments gives Rigetti more breathing room than many small‑cap tech peers. ^[47]
• Growing ecosystem partnerships:
  AFRL, QphoX, MSU, C‑DAC and NVIDIA collaborations all help embed Rigetti into the emerging quantum and hybrid AI–quantum ecosystem. ^[48]
• Analyst consensus not outright bearish:
  With a “Moderate Buy” consensus and an average price target roughly in line with current trading levels, Wall Street is cautious but not uniformly negative. ^[49]

If Rigetti:

• Hits its 100+‑qubit 2025 milestone,
• Demonstrates improving gate fidelities and concrete performance gains, and
• Converts its pipeline into meaningful revenue growth,

then today’s selloff could look, in hindsight, like the painful but necessary valuation reset before a more sustainable growth phase.

That’s the optimistic scenario. The skeptical scenario, which many of today’s headlines lean toward, is that commercial adoption remains slow, funding gets more expensive, and current valuations still don’t fully reflect those realities.

12. FAQs – Rigetti Computing (RGTI) on 14 November 2025

Why is Rigetti stock down so much from its highs?

Multiple sources point to a combination of:

• Extreme valuation multiples after a ~2,000% run in one year. ^[50]
• A Q3 revenue miss and continued losses. ^[51]
• Quantum sector‑wide selling, with over $30 billion in market value wiped out across major names. ^[52]
• Rotations by hedge funds and retail traders out of speculative winners and into more established plays. ^[53]

What did Jim Cramer say about Rigetti?

According to Insider Monkey’s summary, Cramer:

• Highlighted Rigetti’s parabolic move from penny‑stock levels to the $20‑$50 range.
• Called it a “hyper‑speculative” quantum name with declining revenues and large losses.
• Suggested investors “sell half” and let the rest ride as house money. ^[54]

Is Rigetti still considered a “buy” by Wall Street?

Per MarketBeat:

• 5 analysts rate RGTI a Buy, 1 a Hold, and 1 a Sell.
• The average 12‑month price target is around $25–26, close to current prices, for a “Moderate Buy” consensus. ^[55]

That said, recent downgrades and target cuts emphasize that risk is very high, and some analysts prefer larger competitors like IBM or IonQ at this point.

Does Rigetti have enough cash?

Yes, for now. Rigetti reported:

• $558.9 million in cash, cash equivalents and investments as of 30 September 2025,
• Rising to around $600 million by 6 November after warrant exercises. ^[56]

However, with small revenue and significant ongoing losses, investors are watching closely to see how long that runway lasts and whether further capital raises are needed.

Final Thoughts

On 14 November 2025, Rigetti Computing sits at the crossroads of:

• Cutting‑edge quantum technology,
• Speculative stock‑market enthusiasm, and
• A fast‑moving re‑rating of the entire quantum theme.

Today’s headlines – from Jim Cramer’s “sell half” guidance, to analyst warnings of a potential 50%+ plunge in 2026, to fresh data on institutional shifts and sector‑wide value destruction – all underscore the same message:

Rigetti is no longer just a moonshot story; it’s a test of whether quantum hype can survive contact with financial reality.

Anyone considering RGTI should do thorough research, understand the binary‑like risk/reward profile, and, ideally, discuss their situation with a licensed financial adviser before making decisions.

References

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