Quantum Rocket or Bubble? RGTI’s Stunning Surge Explained—And How It Stacks Up to IonQ, D‑Wave, and QUBT

Rigetti (RGTI) Q3 2025: Revenue Miss, EPS Beat, Cash Near $600M; New Orders & AFRL Contract as Investors Track Today’s Call (11/11/2025)

Published: November 11, 2025

Rigetti Computing reported third‑quarter 2025 results with revenue below Wall Street expectations but a narrower‑than‑forecast loss, while highlighting fresh system orders, a major U.S. Air Force contract and a more ambitious technology roadmap. Shares slipped following the release, and investors are watching management’s earnings call scheduled for this morning (8:30 a.m. ET). [1]


Key takeaways

  • Revenue: $1.9 million for Q3 2025. [2]
  • Profitability: Non‑GAAP net loss $10.7 million (‑$0.03 per share); GAAP net loss $201.0 million (‑$0.62 per share). Operating loss $20.5 million. [3]
  • Liquidity: Cash, cash equivalents and investments $558.9 million as of Sept. 30; ~$600 million by Nov. 6 after $46.5 million of warrant exercises. [4]
  • Orders & awards: Two purchase orders totaling ≈$5.7 million for 9‑qubit Novera systems; three‑year $5.8 million contract with the U.S. Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) in collaboration with QphoX to advance superconducting quantum networking. [5]
  • Roadmap: Targeting a 100+ qubit chiplet‑based system with ~99.5% median two‑qubit fidelity by end‑2025, 150+ qubits/99.7% by end‑2026, and 1,000+ qubits/99.8% by end‑2027. [6]
  • Stock reaction: Shares fell in extended trading after the release; coverage flagged a modest after‑hours decline as investors weighed the revenue miss against the EPS beat. [7]

What moved the stock on Nov. 11

Rigetti’s headline revenue of $1.9 million came in below consensus, but the company posted a narrower non‑GAAP loss of ‑$0.03 per share, better than the ‑$0.05 loss many analysts expected. The revenue shortfall versus estimates was a key reason shares dipped after hours, while the smaller‑than‑expected loss tempered downside. Coverage overnight pointed to both dynamics as traders positioned into today’s call. [8]

Zacks’ post‑release wrap (via Nasdaq) likewise characterized the quarter as a revenue miss and EPS beat and noted Rigetti’s strong year‑to‑date performance heading into the print. Even with recent volatility, the stock had significantly outpaced the broader market through Nov. 10, underscoring how sensitive the name remains to each catalyst. [9]


By the numbers: Q3 2025

  • Total revenue:$1.9M.
  • Operating loss:$20.5M.
  • GAAP net loss:$201.0M (‑$0.62/sh).
  • Non‑GAAP net loss:$10.7M (‑$0.03/sh).
  • Cash & investments (9/30):$558.9M; ≈$600M as of 11/6 after warrant exercises ($46.5M proceeds).
    These figures come directly from the company’s press release. [10]

On the expectations side, multiple outlets pegged the Street’s revenue view around ~$2.2M and the EPS view at ‑$0.05, framing the print as a top‑line miss and bottom‑line beat. [11]


Commercial traction: on‑prem quantum and government work

Rigetti says demand for on‑premises quantum computers is building. In September, the company received two purchase orders (~$5.7M) for 9‑qubit Novera™ systems—both upgradeable and slated for delivery in H1 2026—from an Asian technology manufacturer and a California applied‑physics/AI startup. [12]

Government‑backed research remains an important pillar. In September, AFRL awarded Rigetti and partner QphoX a $5.8M contract to develop hybrid superconducting‑optical quantum networking, aiming to enable entanglement between microwave‑domain superconducting qubits and optical photons—one of the hard technical problems on the road to networked quantum systems. [13]


Technology roadmap: fidelity and scale targets through 2027

Rigetti reiterated it expects to deliver by year‑end 2025 a 100+ qubit chiplet‑based system targeting ~99.5% median two‑qubit gate fidelity, then scale to 150+ qubits/99.7% in 2026 and 1,000+ qubits/99.8% in 2027. Milestone cadence matters here: two‑qubit fidelity is a key quality metric for error rates, and small percentage gains can materially affect algorithm viability. The company also said it is supporting NVIDIA’s NVQLink, an open platform intended to reduce latency between AI supercomputers and quantum processors—potentially useful for hybrid workflows where classical and quantum resources interleave. [14]


Strategic updates and ecosystem moves

Beyond orders and awards, Rigetti highlighted:

  • A planned Italian subsidiary to pursue European talent and projects as regional quantum programs accelerate.
  • A collaboration with Montana State University (MSU), which operates an on‑prem Rigetti Novera system, to deepen research and workforce development.
  • A memorandum of understanding with India’s C‑DAC to explore co‑development of hybrid quantum computing systems and applications. [15]

Rigetti also noted that while it wasn’t initially selected for DARPA’s Quantum Benchmarking Initiative (QBI) Stage B, dialogue is ongoing, and the company remains “optimistic” about joining Stage B in the coming months. Any movement here would be a near‑term catalyst to watch. [16]


Cash runway and balance sheet

The company’s ~$600M cash and investments (pro forma for early‑November warrant exercises) provide significant liquidity relative to current operating losses, a point that will likely feature in Q&A as management weighs R&D velocity against commercialization timelines. The step‑up from quarter‑end levels reflects $46.5M in warrant‑exercise proceeds received after Q3 closed. [17]


Stock performance and today’s setup

Overnight coverage flagged a modest after‑hours decline after the print. As of last night’s wrap, summaries from financial outlets framed the move as investors balancing the softer revenue line against a better‑than‑expected loss per share and a robust cash position. That tees up today’s 8:30 a.m. ET call—available via webcast on Rigetti’s IR site—as the next update point for color on demand, roadmap milestones and any incremental guidance. [18]


What to watch next

  1. Roadmap checkpoints: Evidence the company is on track to hit the 100+ qubit / ~99.5% fidelity target by year‑end 2025, along with concrete intermediate milestones. [19]
  2. Commercial conversions: Timing of the two Novera deliveries and pipeline signals for additional on‑prem orders in 2026. [20]
  3. Networking progress: Milestones under the AFRL–QphoX contract (e.g., demonstrations of microwave‑to‑optical transduction enabling entanglement over fiber). [21]
  4. DARPA QBI Stage B: Any follow‑on selection or updates that could influence 2026 funding and benchmarking visibility. [22]
  5. Hybrid compute integrations: Practical developer access and early use cases around NVIDIA NVQLink support. [23]

How to listen to today’s call (Nov. 11)

Rigetti’s Q3 2025 earnings call is scheduled for 8:30 a.m. ET with a live webcast and a replay available on the company’s investor relations website. Registration is required for dial‑in credentials. [24]


Sources: Company press release and investor relations updates; third‑party coverage of the stock move and consensus context. All figures are for the quarter ended Sept. 30, 2025, unless noted. [25]

Editorial note: This article reflects information available the morning of November 11, 2025 and will not auto‑update with real‑time price changes.

EARNINGS ALERT: CRWV & RGTI

References

1. www.globenewswire.com, 2. www.globenewswire.com, 3. www.globenewswire.com, 4. www.globenewswire.com, 5. www.globenewswire.com, 6. www.globenewswire.com, 7. www.investing.com, 8. www.investing.com, 9. www.nasdaq.com, 10. www.globenewswire.com, 11. www.marketscreener.com, 12. www.globenewswire.com, 13. thequantuminsider.com, 14. www.globenewswire.com, 15. www.globenewswire.com, 16. www.globenewswire.com, 17. www.globenewswire.com, 18. www.investing.com, 19. www.globenewswire.com, 20. www.globenewswire.com, 21. thequantuminsider.com, 22. www.globenewswire.com, 23. www.globenewswire.com, 24. www.globenewswire.com, 25. www.globenewswire.com

Stock Market Today

  • Cboe Global Markets Stock Edges Above Analyst Target, Prompting Reassessment
    November 11, 2025, 8:36 AM EST. Cboe Global Markets Inc (CBOE) shares traded at $186.69, topping the average 12-month target of $186.31 set by Zacks-covered analysts. When a stock hits a target, analysts may either downgrade or lift their targets based on company fundamentals. The current consensus comes from 13 targets, with a wide range from $158 to $206 and a standard deviation of about $16. The market signal is whether $186.31 is a stepping stone toward a higher target or a valuation that merits profit-taking. Analysts show a mixed view, with Strong Buy and Hold ratings predominating and a recent average rating around 2.4 on a 1-5 scale.
SpaceX launches 29 Starlink satellites from Florida; targets another 28 from Vandenberg today (Nov. 6, 2025)
Previous Story

SpaceX Launches 29 Starlink Satellites on Falcon 9, Breaking Florida’s Annual Launch Record — Nov. 11, 2025

BigBear.ai Stock’s 300% Surge Sparks Palantir Comparisons in Defense AI Frenzy
Next Story

BigBear.ai (BBAI) Soars on Q3 Beat and $250M Ask Sage Deal: Profit Returns, Guidance Reaffirmed — Nov 11, 2025

Go toTop