Robinhood (HOOD) Explodes 12% to Fresh Highs — Here’s What Lit the Fuse and What Comes Next (Sept 29, 2025)

Key facts (as of September 29, 2025)

Price action: HOOD rallied ~+12% today, ending near $136 and setting a fresh 52‑week/intraday high around $136.84. 52‑week range: $22.05–$136.84. Market cap ≈ $108B; forward P/E ~70; TTM P/E ~62. ^[1]
Catalyst of the day: CEO Vlad Tenev said “Robinhood Prediction Markets just crossed 4 billion event contracts traded all‑time, with over 2 billion in Q3 alone.” ^[2]
Street reaction: HOOD led the S&P 500 gainers today; Bloomberg and Yahoo Finance highlighted the prediction‑markets surge as the driver. ^[3]
S&P 500 milestone: Robinhood joined the S&P 500 on Sept 22, replacing Caesars — a watershed for U.S. fintech. ^[4]
YTD scorecard: HOOD is the S&P 500’s top performer in 2025, up about +267% YTD. ^[5]
Fresh operating datapoint (Sep MTD): Through Sept 25, Robinhood reported $206B equity notional, 187M options contracts, $8B app crypto and $12B Bitstamp crypto volumes. ^[6]
Banking rollout (Fall ’25): “Robinhood Banking” for Gold members (4.00% savings APY, estate planning, tax prep, event access) is accepting early access; launch is Fall 2025. ^[7]
Short interest: ~37.5M shares short (~4.9% of float; ~0.9 days to cover) as of Sept 15. ^[8]
Next catalyst:Q3 earnings on Oct 29, 2025 (after close). Street EPS consensus ~$0.45–$0.47; revenue view around $1.13–$1.15B. ^[9]

What happened today (Mon, Sept 29, 2025)

Robinhood shares surged ~12% and set fresh highs after CEO Vlad Tenev publicized explosive growth in prediction‑market activity on Robinhood via its Kalshi partnership. The update pushed HOOD to the top of S&P 500 gainers; Bloomberg and Yahoo Finance credited the gains to the prediction‑contracts momentum. ^[10]

Wall Street Journal’s live markets desk also flagged the “prediction‑market boost” as shares headed toward all‑time highs. ^[11]

LSE/Reuters quote data captured the closing snapshot: price near $136, today’s range $123.78–$136.84, 52‑week range $22.05–$136.84, market cap ≈ $108B. ^[12]

The last few days — headlines you should know

Sept 29:Tenev announces 4B lifetime event contracts; HOOD spikes double‑digits. “…over 2B in Q3 alone,” he wrote. ^[13]
Sept 29:Investopedia and others note HOOD led the S&P 500 on the day amid shutdown chatter and macro cross‑currents. ^[14]
Sept 29: Robinhood shares September MTD trading volumes (to Sept 25): $206B equities, 187M options, $8B app crypto, $12B Bitstamp crypto. ^[15]
Sept 23:Piper Sandler lifts PT to $140, citing record Kalshi event‑contract volumes driven by NFL/college markets; firm kept Overweight. ^[16]
Sept 23:Citi raises PT to $135, Neutral, highlighting elevated trading activity but preferring a better entry point. ^[17]
Sept 22:S&P 500 inclusion takes effect — a symbolic and mechanical tailwind for demand. ^[18]
Sept 10:Mizuho’s Dan Dolev boosts PT to $145 after HOOD Summit 2025 unveiled new features (social, advanced tools, more). ^[19]
Ongoing (Fall ’25):Robinhood Banking opens early access for Gold members ahead of the Fall launch (4% APY, concierge‑style perks via Coastal Community Bank). ^[20]

Expert quotes (executives & analysts)

Vlad Tenev, CEO (today): “Robinhood Prediction Markets just crossed 4 billion event contracts traded all‑time, with over 2 billion in Q3 alone.” ^[21]
Piper Sandler (Sept 23): Event‑contract volumes are “on track for record monthly volumes in September,” aided by NFL and NCAA football markets. ^[22]
Mizuho’s Dan Dolev (Sept 10): Robinhood’s “product enhancements represent step‑function improvements that will attract more users and boost engagement.” ^[23]
Jason Warnick, CFO (Q2 release): “Q2 was another great quarter as we drove market share gains, closed the acquisition of Bitstamp and remained disciplined on expenses.” ^[24]

Business drivers & where growth is coming from

1) Prediction markets & new engagement loops.
HOOD offers event‑contract trading to U.S. users via Kalshi (a CFTC‑regulated exchange). September volumes on Kalshi are pacing for records, helped by NFL/NCAA launches, and Robinhood is sharing in those economics. ^[25] Tenev’s milestone post underlined how fast the category scaled on Robinhood in Q3. ^[26]

2) Core trading + crypto + interest income.
In Q2 2025, total net revenue rose 45% YoY to $989M. Transaction revenue jumped 65% (Options $265M, Crypto $160M, Equities $66M). Net interest revenue rose 25% YoY, though management noted a partial offset from lower short‑term rates — a useful reminder that rate cuts can ease this tailwind. ^[27]

3) Scale effects & deposits.
Funded customers reached ~26.5–26.7M this summer; Total Platform Assets hit $304B in August; margin balances rose to $12.5B; and 12‑month net deposits were ~$62B. ^[28]

4) Bitstamp & international crypto reach.
HOOD closed its $200M acquisition of Bitstamp (announced in 2024), adding a regulated global crypto exchange to the stack — now reflected in the Sep MTD volume split between the app and Bitstamp. ^[29]

5) Banking & wealth — deepening the ecosystem.
“Robinhood Banking” (Gold‑only) begins rolling out this fall, with 4.00% savings APY, FDIC pass‑through, cash delivery, and access to marquee events — a move designed to retain higher‑value customers and diversify beyond pure trading. ^[30]

Valuation snapshot (today)

Market cap: ~$108.2B
Forward P/E: ~70; TTM P/E: ~62
Shares outstanding: ~889M
52‑Week range:$22.05–$136.84
(Reuters/LSEG consolidated quote page.) ^[31]

Short interest:~4.9% of float, ~0.9 days to cover (Nasdaq; Sept 15). ^[32]

What Wall Street is modeling

Price targets (divergent across aggregators):

TipRanks average:~$127 12‑mo target (18 analysts). ^[33]
Fintel average:~$123.7 (range $60.6–$168). ^[34]
MarketBeat composite (recent article): roughly ~$100–105 average (methodology skews to older reports). ^[35]
Notable recent moves:Mizuho $145 (Buy); Piper Sandler $140 (Overweight); Citi $135 (Neutral). ^[36]

Earnings outlook:
Next report Oct 29, 2025. Consensus EPS around $0.45–$0.47; revenue ~$1.13–$1.15B (ranges vary by data source). ^[37]

The bigger picture in 2025

S&P 500 member: Effective Sept 22, boosting visibility and potential passive flows. ^[38]
Best S&P 500 performer YTD: Up ~+267% in 2025, per IBD’s screen today. ^[39]
Q2 2025 financials:$989M revenue (+45% YoY), $386M net income (+105% YoY), $0.42 diluted EPS; ARPU $151. ^[40]

Competitive & regulatory context

Competition encroaches: Traditional brokers and Big Tech continue adding features; for example, press reports this month cited Morgan Stanley’s E*Trade expanding into crypto access via ZeroHash — part of a broader battle for retail engagement. ^[41]
Regulatory hangovers: In Jan 2025 Robinhood agreed to pay $45M to settle SEC record‑keeping and reporting charges; in Mar 2025 it agreed to pay $29.75M to resolve several FINRA probes. (Both matters highlighted compliance controls; FINRA cited “red flags of potential misconduct.”) ^[42]

How the thesis is evolving

Bull case:

Massive 2025 run is now supported by index inclusion, feature velocity (social/advanced tools; HOOD Summit 2025), prediction‑market engagement, and banking/wealth expansion — each adding potential cross‑sell/retention flywheels. ^[43]
Analyst support at higher price targets (Piper Sandler, Mizuho) underscores confidence that engagement can remain structurally higher into 2026. ^[44]

Bear/risk case:

Valuation is rich (forward P/E ~70), leaving little room for growth hiccups. ^[45]
Regulatory risk persists (crypto classification, supervision & record‑keeping scrutiny). ^[46]
Macro sensitivity: Net interest revenue benefited from high rates; a cutting cycle compresses that spread, which management itself flagged as a partial headwind. ^[47]
Engagement cyclicality: Event contracts and crypto are activity‑driven; volume spikes may ebb when seasonal or headline tailwinds fade (e.g., post‑football season). (Analyst caution embedded in Citi’s Neutral at $135). ^[48]

What to watch next

Oct 29 earnings: Does EPS land ≥$0.45 on $1.13–$1.15B revenue, and what does management guide for Q4 seasonality (football, elections wrap‑up) and 2026? ^[49]
Banking rollout (Fall ’25): Adoption among Gold members; attach rates to higher balances and multi‑product users. ^[50]
Prediction markets: Sustainability of Kalshi volumes after September’s records; product depth beyond sports & macro events. ^[51]
Crypto trend: Correlation of HOOD crypto revenues to bitcoin/altcoin volatility post‑summer. (Q2 crypto revenue: $160M, +98% YoY). ^[52]

Appendix — today’s coverage & primary sources

Bloomberg/Yahoo Finance: “Robinhood shares climb 12% on growth in prediction‑market trades.” ^[53]
WSJ live blog: “Robinhood shares get a prediction‑market boost.” ^[54]
IBD: HOOD is 2025’s top S&P 500 performer as of today. ^[55]
Investopedia wrap: HOOD led S&P 500 gainers today amid macro headlines. ^[56]
S&P 500 inclusion (Reuters): HOOD added Sept 22. ^[57]
Official Q2 results & quote: SEC Exhibit 99.1. ^[58]
Monthly metrics (Aug): IR release and dashboard. ^[59]
Banking/Gold: Robinhood product pages; early‑access live. ^[60]
Short interest: Nasdaq & Yahoo Finance stats (Sept 15). ^[61]

This report is for general information only and not investment advice. Markets move fast; always verify figures against your broker/terminal before trading.

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