Key facts (as of September 29, 2025)
- Price action: HOOD rallied ~+12% today, ending near $136 and setting a fresh 52‑week/intraday high around $136.84. 52‑week range: $22.05–$136.84. Market cap ≈ $108B; forward P/E ~70; TTM P/E ~62. 1
- Catalyst of the day: CEO Vlad Tenev said “Robinhood Prediction Markets just crossed 4 billion event contracts traded all‑time, with over 2 billion in Q3 alone.” 2
- Street reaction: HOOD led the S&P 500 gainers today; Bloomberg and Yahoo Finance highlighted the prediction‑markets surge as the driver. 3
- S&P 500 milestone: Robinhood joined the S&P 500 on Sept 22, replacing Caesars — a watershed for U.S. fintech. 4
- YTD scorecard: HOOD is the S&P 500’s top performer in 2025, up about +267% YTD. 5
- Fresh operating datapoint (Sep MTD): Through Sept 25, Robinhood reported $206B equity notional, 187M options contracts, $8B app crypto and $12B Bitstamp crypto volumes. 6
- Banking rollout (Fall ’25): “Robinhood Banking” for Gold members (4.00% savings APY, estate planning, tax prep, event access) is accepting early access; launch is Fall 2025. 7
- Short interest: ~37.5M shares short (~4.9% of float; ~0.9 days to cover) as of Sept 15. 8
- Next catalyst:Q3 earnings on Oct 29, 2025 (after close). Street EPS consensus ~$0.45–$0.47; revenue view around $1.13–$1.15B. 9
What happened today (Mon, Sept 29, 2025)
Robinhood shares surged ~12% and set fresh highs after CEO Vlad Tenev publicized explosive growth in prediction‑market activity on Robinhood via its Kalshi partnership. The update pushed HOOD to the top of S&P 500 gainers; Bloomberg and Yahoo Finance credited the gains to the prediction‑contracts momentum. 3
Wall Street Journal’s live markets desk also flagged the “prediction‑market boost” as shares headed toward all‑time highs. 10
LSE/Reuters quote data captured the closing snapshot: price near $136, today’s range $123.78–$136.84, 52‑week range $22.05–$136.84, market cap ≈ $108B. 1
The last few days — headlines you should know
- Sept 29:Tenev announces 4B lifetime event contracts; HOOD spikes double‑digits. “…over 2B in Q3 alone,” he wrote. 2
- Sept 29:Investopedia and others note HOOD led the S&P 500 on the day amid shutdown chatter and macro cross‑currents. 11
- Sept 29: Robinhood shares September MTD trading volumes (to Sept 25): $206B equities, 187M options, $8B app crypto, $12B Bitstamp crypto. 6
- Sept 23:Piper Sandler lifts PT to $140, citing record Kalshi event‑contract volumes driven by NFL/college markets; firm kept Overweight. 12
- Sept 23:Citi raises PT to $135, Neutral, highlighting elevated trading activity but preferring a better entry point. 13
- Sept 22:S&P 500 inclusion takes effect — a symbolic and mechanical tailwind for demand. 4
- Sept 10:Mizuho’s Dan Dolev boosts PT to $145 after HOOD Summit 2025 unveiled new features (social, advanced tools, more). 14
- Ongoing (Fall ’25):Robinhood Banking opens early access for Gold members ahead of the Fall launch (4% APY, concierge‑style perks via Coastal Community Bank). 15
Expert quotes (executives & analysts)
- Vlad Tenev, CEO (today): “Robinhood Prediction Markets just crossed 4 billion event contracts traded all‑time, with over 2 billion in Q3 alone.” 2
- Piper Sandler (Sept 23): Event‑contract volumes are “on track for record monthly volumes in September,” aided by NFL and NCAA football markets. 12
- Mizuho’s Dan Dolev (Sept 10): Robinhood’s “product enhancements represent step‑function improvements that will attract more users and boost engagement.” 14
- Jason Warnick, CFO (Q2 release): “Q2 was another great quarter as we drove market share gains, closed the acquisition of Bitstamp and remained disciplined on expenses.” 16
Business drivers & where growth is coming from
1) Prediction markets & new engagement loops.
HOOD offers event‑contract trading to U.S. users via Kalshi (a CFTC‑regulated exchange). September volumes on Kalshi are pacing for records, helped by NFL/NCAA launches, and Robinhood is sharing in those economics. TipRanks Tenev’s milestone post underlined how fast the category scaled on Robinhood in Q3. 2
2) Core trading + crypto + interest income.
In Q2 2025, total net revenue rose 45% YoY to $989M. Transaction revenue jumped 65% (Options $265M, Crypto $160M, Equities $66M). Net interest revenue rose 25% YoY, though management noted a partial offset from lower short‑term rates — a useful reminder that rate cuts can ease this tailwind. 16
3) Scale effects & deposits.
Funded customers reached ~26.5–26.7M this summer; Total Platform Assets hit $304B in August; margin balances rose to $12.5B; and 12‑month net deposits were ~$62B. 17
4) Bitstamp & international crypto reach.
HOOD closed its $200M acquisition of Bitstamp (announced in 2024), adding a regulated global crypto exchange to the stack — now reflected in the Sep MTD volume split between the app and Bitstamp. 18
5) Banking & wealth — deepening the ecosystem.
“Robinhood Banking” (Gold‑only) begins rolling out this fall, with 4.00% savings APY, FDIC pass‑through, cash delivery, and access to marquee events — a move designed to retain higher‑value customers and diversify beyond pure trading. 7
Valuation snapshot (today)
- Market cap: ~$108.2B
- Forward P/E: ~70; TTM P/E: ~62
- Shares outstanding: ~889M
- 52‑Week range:$22.05–$136.84
(Reuters/LSEG consolidated quote page.) 1
Short interest:~4.9% of float, ~0.9 days to cover (Nasdaq; Sept 15). 8
What Wall Street is modeling
Price targets (divergent across aggregators):
- TipRanks average:~$127 12‑mo target (18 analysts). 19
- Fintel average:~$123.7 (range $60.6–$168). 20
- MarketBeat composite (recent article): roughly ~$100–105 average (methodology skews to older reports). 21
- Notable recent moves:Mizuho $145 (Buy); Piper Sandler $140 (Overweight); Citi $135 (Neutral). 14
Earnings outlook:
Next report Oct 29, 2025. Consensus EPS around $0.45–$0.47; revenue ~$1.13–$1.15B (ranges vary by data source). 9
The bigger picture in 2025
- S&P 500 member: Effective Sept 22, boosting visibility and potential passive flows. 4
- Best S&P 500 performer YTD: Up ~+267% in 2025, per IBD’s screen today. 5
- Q2 2025 financials:$989M revenue (+45% YoY), $386M net income (+105% YoY), $0.42 diluted EPS; ARPU $151. 16
Competitive & regulatory context
- Competition encroaches: Traditional brokers and Big Tech continue adding features; for example, press reports this month cited Morgan Stanley’s E*Trade expanding into crypto access via ZeroHash — part of a broader battle for retail engagement. 1
- Regulatory hangovers: In Jan 2025 Robinhood agreed to pay $45M to settle SEC record‑keeping and reporting charges; in Mar 2025 it agreed to pay $29.75M to resolve several FINRA probes. (Both matters highlighted compliance controls; FINRA cited “red flags of potential misconduct.”) 22
How the thesis is evolving
Bull case:
- Massive 2025 run is now supported by index inclusion, feature velocity (social/advanced tools; HOOD Summit 2025), prediction‑market engagement, and banking/wealth expansion — each adding potential cross‑sell/retention flywheels. 23
- Analyst support at higher price targets (Piper Sandler, Mizuho) underscores confidence that engagement can remain structurally higher into 2026. 12
Bear/risk case:
- Valuation is rich (forward P/E ~70), leaving little room for growth hiccups. 1
- Regulatory risk persists (crypto classification, supervision & record‑keeping scrutiny). 22
- Macro sensitivity: Net interest revenue benefited from high rates; a cutting cycle compresses that spread, which management itself flagged as a partial headwind. 16
- Engagement cyclicality: Event contracts and crypto are activity‑driven; volume spikes may ebb when seasonal or headline tailwinds fade (e.g., post‑football season). (Analyst caution embedded in Citi’s Neutral at $135). 13
What to watch next
- Oct 29 earnings: Does EPS land ≥$0.45 on $1.13–$1.15B revenue, and what does management guide for Q4 seasonality (football, elections wrap‑up) and 2026? 9
- Banking rollout (Fall ’25): Adoption among Gold members; attach rates to higher balances and multi‑product users. 24
- Prediction markets: Sustainability of Kalshi volumes after September’s records; product depth beyond sports & macro events. 12
- Crypto trend: Correlation of HOOD crypto revenues to bitcoin/altcoin volatility post‑summer. (Q2 crypto revenue: $160M, +98% YoY). 16
Appendix — today’s coverage & primary sources
- Bloomberg/Yahoo Finance: “Robinhood shares climb 12% on growth in prediction‑market trades.” 3
- WSJ live blog: “Robinhood shares get a prediction‑market boost.” 10
- IBD: HOOD is 2025’s top S&P 500 performer as of today. 5
- Investopedia wrap: HOOD led S&P 500 gainers today amid macro headlines. 11
- S&P 500 inclusion (Reuters): HOOD added Sept 22. 4
- Official Q2 results & quote: SEC Exhibit 99.1. 16
- Monthly metrics (Aug): IR release and dashboard. 17
- Banking/Gold: Robinhood product pages; early‑access live. 7
- Short interest: Nasdaq & Yahoo Finance stats (Sept 15). 8
This report is for general information only and not investment advice. Markets move fast; always verify figures against your broker/terminal before trading.
