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Robinhood (HOOD) Explodes 12% to Fresh Highs — Here’s What Lit the Fuse and What Comes Next (Sept 29, 2025)
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Robinhood (HOOD) Explodes 12% to Fresh Highs — Here’s What Lit the Fuse and What Comes Next (Sept 29, 2025)

by
30 September 2025

Key facts (as of September 29, 2025)

  • Price action: HOOD rallied ~+12% today, ending near $136 and setting a fresh 52‑week/intraday high around $136.84. 52‑week range: $22.05–$136.84. Market cap ≈ $108B; forward P/E ~70; TTM P/E ~62. [1]
  • Catalyst of the day: CEO Vlad Tenev said “Robinhood Prediction Markets just crossed 4 billion event contracts traded all‑time, with over 2 billion in Q3 alone.” [2]
  • Street reaction: HOOD led the S&P 500 gainers today; Bloomberg and Yahoo Finance highlighted the prediction‑markets surge as the driver. [3]
  • S&P 500 milestone: Robinhood joined the S&P 500 on Sept 22, replacing Caesars — a watershed for U.S. fintech. [4]
  • YTD scorecard: HOOD is the S&P 500’s top performer in 2025, up about +267% YTD. [5]
  • Fresh operating datapoint (Sep MTD): Through Sept 25, Robinhood reported $206B equity notional, 187M options contracts, $8B app crypto and $12B Bitstamp crypto volumes. [6]
  • Banking rollout (Fall ’25): “Robinhood Banking” for Gold members (4.00% savings APY, estate planning, tax prep, event access) is accepting early access; launch is Fall 2025. [7]
  • Short interest: ~37.5M shares short (~4.9% of float; ~0.9 days to cover) as of Sept 15. [8]
  • Next catalyst:Q3 earnings on Oct 29, 2025 (after close). Street EPS consensus ~$0.45–$0.47; revenue view around $1.13–$1.15B. [9]

What happened today (Mon, Sept 29, 2025)

Robinhood shares surged ~12% and set fresh highs after CEO Vlad Tenev publicized explosive growth in prediction‑market activity on Robinhood via its Kalshi partnership. The update pushed HOOD to the top of S&P 500 gainers; Bloomberg and Yahoo Finance credited the gains to the prediction‑contracts momentum. [10]

Wall Street Journal’s live markets desk also flagged the “prediction‑market boost” as shares headed toward all‑time highs. [11]

LSE/Reuters quote data captured the closing snapshot: price near $136, today’s range $123.78–$136.84, 52‑week range $22.05–$136.84, market cap ≈ $108B. [12]

The last few days — headlines you should know

  • Sept 29:Tenev announces 4B lifetime event contracts; HOOD spikes double‑digits. “…over 2B in Q3 alone,” he wrote. [13]
  • Sept 29:Investopedia and others note HOOD led the S&P 500 on the day amid shutdown chatter and macro cross‑currents. [14]
  • Sept 29: Robinhood shares September MTD trading volumes (to Sept 25): $206B equities, 187M options, $8B app crypto, $12B Bitstamp crypto. [15]
  • Sept 23:Piper Sandler lifts PT to $140, citing record Kalshi event‑contract volumes driven by NFL/college markets; firm kept Overweight. [16]
  • Sept 23:Citi raises PT to $135, Neutral, highlighting elevated trading activity but preferring a better entry point. [17]
  • Sept 22:S&P 500 inclusion takes effect — a symbolic and mechanical tailwind for demand. [18]
  • Sept 10:Mizuho’s Dan Dolev boosts PT to $145 after HOOD Summit 2025 unveiled new features (social, advanced tools, more). [19]
  • Ongoing (Fall ’25):Robinhood Banking opens early access for Gold members ahead of the Fall launch (4% APY, concierge‑style perks via Coastal Community Bank). [20]

Expert quotes (executives & analysts)

  • Vlad Tenev, CEO (today): “Robinhood Prediction Markets just crossed 4 billion event contracts traded all‑time, with over 2 billion in Q3 alone.” [21]
  • Piper Sandler (Sept 23): Event‑contract volumes are “on track for record monthly volumes in September,” aided by NFL and NCAA football markets. [22]
  • Mizuho’s Dan Dolev (Sept 10): Robinhood’s “product enhancements represent step‑function improvements that will attract more users and boost engagement.” [23]
  • Jason Warnick, CFO (Q2 release): “Q2 was another great quarter as we drove market share gains, closed the acquisition of Bitstamp and remained disciplined on expenses.” [24]

Business drivers & where growth is coming from

1) Prediction markets & new engagement loops.
HOOD offers event‑contract trading to U.S. users via Kalshi (a CFTC‑regulated exchange). September volumes on Kalshi are pacing for records, helped by NFL/NCAA launches, and Robinhood is sharing in those economics. [25] Tenev’s milestone post underlined how fast the category scaled on Robinhood in Q3. [26]

2) Core trading + crypto + interest income.
In Q2 2025, total net revenue rose 45% YoY to $989M. Transaction revenue jumped 65% (Options $265M, Crypto $160M, Equities $66M). Net interest revenue rose 25% YoY, though management noted a partial offset from lower short‑term rates — a useful reminder that rate cuts can ease this tailwind. [27]

3) Scale effects & deposits.
Funded customers reached ~26.5–26.7M this summer; Total Platform Assets hit $304B in August; margin balances rose to $12.5B; and 12‑month net deposits were ~$62B. [28]

4) Bitstamp & international crypto reach.
HOOD closed its $200M acquisition of Bitstamp (announced in 2024), adding a regulated global crypto exchange to the stack — now reflected in the Sep MTD volume split between the app and Bitstamp. [29]

5) Banking & wealth — deepening the ecosystem.
“Robinhood Banking” (Gold‑only) begins rolling out this fall, with 4.00% savings APY, FDIC pass‑through, cash delivery, and access to marquee events — a move designed to retain higher‑value customers and diversify beyond pure trading. [30]

Valuation snapshot (today)

  • Market cap: ~$108.2B
  • Forward P/E: ~70; TTM P/E: ~62
  • Shares outstanding: ~889M
  • 52‑Week range:$22.05–$136.84
    (Reuters/LSEG consolidated quote page.) [31]

Short interest:~4.9% of float, ~0.9 days to cover (Nasdaq; Sept 15). [32]

What Wall Street is modeling

Price targets (divergent across aggregators):

  • TipRanks average:~$127 12‑mo target (18 analysts). [33]
  • Fintel average:~$123.7 (range $60.6–$168). [34]
  • MarketBeat composite (recent article): roughly ~$100–105 average (methodology skews to older reports). [35]
  • Notable recent moves:Mizuho $145 (Buy); Piper Sandler $140 (Overweight); Citi $135 (Neutral). [36]

Earnings outlook:
Next report Oct 29, 2025. Consensus EPS around $0.45–$0.47; revenue ~$1.13–$1.15B (ranges vary by data source). [37]

The bigger picture in 2025

  • S&P 500 member: Effective Sept 22, boosting visibility and potential passive flows. [38]
  • Best S&P 500 performer YTD: Up ~+267% in 2025, per IBD’s screen today. [39]
  • Q2 2025 financials:$989M revenue (+45% YoY), $386M net income (+105% YoY), $0.42 diluted EPS; ARPU $151. [40]

Competitive & regulatory context

  • Competition encroaches: Traditional brokers and Big Tech continue adding features; for example, press reports this month cited Morgan Stanley’s E*Trade expanding into crypto access via ZeroHash — part of a broader battle for retail engagement. [41]
  • Regulatory hangovers: In Jan 2025 Robinhood agreed to pay $45M to settle SEC record‑keeping and reporting charges; in Mar 2025 it agreed to pay $29.75M to resolve several FINRA probes. (Both matters highlighted compliance controls; FINRA cited “red flags of potential misconduct.”) [42]

How the thesis is evolving

Bull case:

  • Massive 2025 run is now supported by index inclusion, feature velocity (social/advanced tools; HOOD Summit 2025), prediction‑market engagement, and banking/wealth expansion — each adding potential cross‑sell/retention flywheels. [43]
  • Analyst support at higher price targets (Piper Sandler, Mizuho) underscores confidence that engagement can remain structurally higher into 2026. [44]

Bear/risk case:

  • Valuation is rich (forward P/E ~70), leaving little room for growth hiccups. [45]
  • Regulatory risk persists (crypto classification, supervision & record‑keeping scrutiny). [46]
  • Macro sensitivity: Net interest revenue benefited from high rates; a cutting cycle compresses that spread, which management itself flagged as a partial headwind. [47]
  • Engagement cyclicality: Event contracts and crypto are activity‑driven; volume spikes may ebb when seasonal or headline tailwinds fade (e.g., post‑football season). (Analyst caution embedded in Citi’s Neutral at $135). [48]

What to watch next

  1. Oct 29 earnings: Does EPS land ≥$0.45 on $1.13–$1.15B revenue, and what does management guide for Q4 seasonality (football, elections wrap‑up) and 2026? [49]
  2. Banking rollout (Fall ’25): Adoption among Gold members; attach rates to higher balances and multi‑product users. [50]
  3. Prediction markets: Sustainability of Kalshi volumes after September’s records; product depth beyond sports & macro events. [51]
  4. Crypto trend: Correlation of HOOD crypto revenues to bitcoin/altcoin volatility post‑summer. (Q2 crypto revenue: $160M, +98% YoY). [52]

Appendix — today’s coverage & primary sources

  • Bloomberg/Yahoo Finance: “Robinhood shares climb 12% on growth in prediction‑market trades.” [53]
  • WSJ live blog: “Robinhood shares get a prediction‑market boost.” [54]
  • IBD: HOOD is 2025’s top S&P 500 performer as of today. [55]
  • Investopedia wrap: HOOD led S&P 500 gainers today amid macro headlines. [56]
  • S&P 500 inclusion (Reuters): HOOD added Sept 22. [57]
  • Official Q2 results & quote: SEC Exhibit 99.1. [58]
  • Monthly metrics (Aug): IR release and dashboard. [59]
  • Banking/Gold: Robinhood product pages; early‑access live. [60]
  • Short interest: Nasdaq & Yahoo Finance stats (Sept 15). [61]

This report is for general information only and not investment advice. Markets move fast; always verify figures against your broker/terminal before trading.

Robinhood Stock Jumps 10%: Here's Why
Watch this video on YouTube.

References

1. www.reuters.com, 2. x.com, 3. www.bloomberg.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.investors.com, 6. www.streetinsider.com, 7. robinhood.com, 8. www.nasdaq.com, 9. www.tipranks.com, 10. www.bloomberg.com, 11. www.wsj.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. x.com, 14. www.investopedia.com, 15. www.streetinsider.com, 16. www.tipranks.com, 17. www.tipranks.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.tipranks.com, 20. robinhood.com, 21. x.com, 22. www.tipranks.com, 23. www.tipranks.com, 24. www.sec.gov, 25. www.tipranks.com, 26. x.com, 27. www.sec.gov, 28. investors.robinhood.com, 29. www.coindesk.com, 30. robinhood.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.nasdaq.com, 33. www.tipranks.com, 34. fintel.io, 35. www.marketbeat.com, 36. www.tipranks.com, 37. www.tipranks.com, 38. www.reuters.com, 39. www.investors.com, 40. www.sec.gov, 41. www.reuters.com, 42. www.reuters.com, 43. www.tradersmagazine.com, 44. www.tipranks.com, 45. www.reuters.com, 46. www.reuters.com, 47. www.sec.gov, 48. www.tipranks.com, 49. www.tipranks.com, 50. robinhood.com, 51. www.tipranks.com, 52. www.sec.gov, 53. www.bloomberg.com, 54. www.wsj.com, 55. www.investors.com, 56. www.investopedia.com, 57. www.reuters.com, 58. www.sec.gov, 59. investors.robinhood.com, 60. robinhood.com, 61. www.nasdaq.com

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